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[Falango]

Thanks for the shells @Dragonwhisky 👍

 

[vsfit]

How did the algorithm take into account that some cars & some tracks are far more popular than others? ^^
I mean let's face it, it may be a shame, but the Honda Life Step Van @ Matterhorn Short Track is unlikely to be a favoured combo... even among me & my racing pals... a few who, just last week, voted that we should have a heavy damage endurance at Madrid Mini Reverse in the Renault 5 Turbo.

I'm sorry Watermelon punch but I gotta ask this cause it's just odd....and this is just me. Are you here looking for people to join your Shuffle Club?....Nothing wrong with it and I wish you success with your....league? No animosity here, just wondering.

 

[Dragonwhisky]

The third of those triples has been posted. Have a look and think.

How did the algorithm take into account that some cars & some tracks are far more popular than others? ^^
I mean let's face it, it may be a shame, but the Honda Life Step Van @ Matterhorn Short Track is unlikely to be a favoured combo... even among me & my racing pals... a few who, just last week, voted that we should have a heavy damage endurance at Madrid Mini Reverse in the Renault 5 Turbo.

It did nothing of the sort to my knowledge. Excepting using historical data for analysis, quantifying popularity is nearly impossible to predict and was in no way used in the maths or in the conclusions drawn.

Thanks for the shells!
Now the big question!
Did you and your Math Think Tank get any actual work done today? haaaa

Hells yes we did. The Think Tank, which I'm not really part of, was late in the day for one and early in the "day" for the other. I was working the entire time I was formulating the initial post. I do my daytime GTP reading and posting while in between waiting on computers to do what I tell them and customers to call. At one point this morning, I was helping one over the phone, another at my desk, telling another machine to get its stupid anti-virus updates, reading GTP and doing research for this little project. No, it wasn't multi-tasking either. That's a myth created by upper management types in an attempt to pay their employees less. It was however, some fairly quick multi-task switching. I'm good that way.

 

[FloptaStr8]

Ummm, how do we receive, our "get paid" in shells? Or is this a FUD question?

 

[vsfit]

The third of those triples has been posted. Have a look and think.



It did nothing of the sort to my knowledge. Excepting using historical data for analysis, quantifying popularity is nearly impossible to predict and was in no way used in the maths or in the conclusions drawn.



Hells yes we did. The Think Tank, which I'm not really part of, was late in the day for one and early in the "day" for the other. I was working the entire time I was formulating the initial post. I do my daytime GTP reading and posting while in between waiting on computers to do what I tell them and customers to call. At one point this morning, I was helping one over the phone, another at my desk, telling another machine to get its stupid anti-virus updates, reading GTP and doing research for this little project. No, it wasn't multi-tasking either. That's a myth created by upper management types in an attempt to pay their employees less. It was however, some fairly quick multi-task switching. I'm good that way.

Sounds like a good day at work. It was fun following along. 👍

 

[Lessen]

Ummm, how do we receive, our "get paid" in shells? Or is this a FUD question?

FUD

There's nothing you have to do to receive for this instance.

 

[watermelon punch]

Excepting using historical data for analysis, quantifying popularity is nearly impossible to predict and was in no way used in the maths or in the conclusions drawn

You really think it's impossible to predict?? Nah!

Not that I think it'd be worth it to run this experiment... But I really believe that if you chose, at random, 50 cars from those available in gt6, and ran a poll asking people to pick, say 3 which they would like to race best, off the cuff... I think many of us could predict pretty well which the winners would be in advance, given a polling of at least, say... 60 SNAIL members. I mean even if our own picks were one thing, we could still probably predict what most people would pick.

Anyhow, I find it interesting to consider perhaps how much shorter that huuuuuuuuge number could possibly be if the odds, controlling for car & track popularity, would be.



@vsfit You're contradicting yourself, and I don't think I'll dignify your "question" with any debate. I don't need to explain or defend myself to you over a post that was meant to be light-hearted.
And I think you well know you came across as pretty grumpy. 👎
Lighten up. Life is too short to spend time picking arguments in the GTPlanet Snail league thread.

 

[Lessen]

I have hot cocoa.

 

[GTP_Vertigo]

I have hot cocoa.

 

[Dragonwhisky]

Ummm, how do we receive, our "get paid" in shells? Or is this a FUD question?

The $hells have already been transferred, even if it takes a while for the sheet to update. Speaking of which, there were a couple of number name shots I missed when I was tabbing them up. Will get those shortly and edit that post.

You really think it's impossible to predict?? Nah!

Not that I think it'd be worth it to run this experiment... But I really believe that if you chose, at random, 50 cars from those available in gt6, and ran a poll asking people to pick, say 3 which they would like to race best, off the cuff... I think many of us could predict pretty well which the winners would be in advance, given a polling of at least, say... 60 SNAIL members. I mean even if our own picks were one thing, we could still probably predict what most people would pick.

Anyhow, I find it interesting to consider perhaps how much shorter that huuuuuuuuge number could possibly be if the odds, controlling for car & track popularity, would be.



@vsfit You're contradicting yourself, and I don't think I'll dignify your "question" with any debate. I don't need to explain or defend myself to you over a post that was meant to be light-hearted.
And I think you well know you came across as pretty grumpy. 👎
Lighten up. Life is too short to spend time picking arguments in the GTPlanet Snail league thread.

I would consider taking a poll to be historical data gathering.

I am certain vsfit had nothing heavy in mind with his question there. Thinking maybe a little cookie reading might be in order here. @zer05ive , would you please do us the honor of a link?

 

[gtr3123]

Still testing leave me alone xD

 

[Lessen]

Hurry up. I hate this stupid Lexus.

 

[McTrucker]

Division 6 Results 1/18/15

Congrats to @soundtiger95

1st - @soundtiger95 2nd @singlepaddy - 3rd @TEX36

Wins:

Round 1 Race 1 : 1st @BayouSimDrifter 2nd @soundtiger95 3rd @McTrucker
Round 1 Race 2 : 1st @DGuzmanG 2nd @TomMang_68 3rd @singlepaddy

Round 2 Race 1 : 1st @Rob Brown 2nd @CanuckleheadII 3rd @soundtiger95
Round 2 Race 2 : 1st @TEX36 2nd @goofytyler 3rd @Rob Brown

Round 3 Race 1 : 1st @TEX36 2nd @goofytyler 3rd @CanuckleheadII
Round 3 Race 2 : 1st @soundtiger95 2nd @TEX36 3rd @BayouSimDrifter


Fast Lap Honors:

Marcos @ Silverstone - @soundtiger95 1:07.124
RUF @ Tokyo - @Rob Brown 1:52.090
Lexus @ Grand Valley - @goofytyler 1:56.090

 

[JLBowler]

Honda Civic Si (EP3) '05 @ Mid Ohio Sports Car Course

RENAULT SPORT CLIO V6 24V 00 TWIN RING EAST 1 38 342 SPORT HARD TESTED OFF LINE

My suggestion is...
Lotus Élan S1 '62 at Autumn Ring Reverse. Comfort soft tires.

Tested alone but still had some room on the straight before redline for draft/aliens.

@IceManFan_7

My suggestion (again for the 1st time) for @IceManFan_7

Civic Type R (EK) Touring Car '97 at Suzuka Circuit East Course.

Lap times will be sub 55" for most.

@JLBowler @Dragonwhisky @zer05ive

@JLBowler @Dragonwhisky @zer05ive[/QUOTE]


@IceManFan_7

CHEVRON.... STOP IT! PLEASE! I can't wait for p.cars anymore

So bathurst is a nono? That's sad. One of my favourite tracks in this game

@IceManFan_7 My combo choice is the Mercedes SLS AMG GT3 '11@ Fuji Speedway F

I think I got them all. It's a little past the deadline I set because I had a triple OT basketball game up in the mountains tonight and then stopped at the local watering hole for a beer. If I missed an official suggestion, I apologize. Dragonwhisky's little contest and some suggestions that are not even possible clogged up the thread a little bit.

Pick on ASAP but not later than whatever the deadline I set many pages ago. I'll go find it and edit it in here.

Edit: You have until 6 PM eastern time to make a pick.

 

[kcheeb]

On to the "agenda".

That burning question mentioned in the above post has been burbling in the back of my head for months. The number posted to start the contest has been proven, to me at least, to be farcical and utterly useless, not to mention, incomprehensible to visualize, at best.

In my research today to find the "true" number of combinations possible I also visited this page. Input the same two numbers, 1200 (Cars) and 80 (Track Layouts) which, as it turns out, aren't precisely accurate, but close enough, given the results, and it spit out this number;

2,041,752,280,022,756,137,705,557,217,992,270,632,276,912,184,115,493,545,683,493,895,535,772,986,821,526,839,449,588,915,828,038,258,034,452,615,540,946,946,111,821,350.

This number is considerably smaller than the first one. I still wasn't convinced it was a "true" representation of the number of combinations SNAIL could possibly race. So, I asked one of the programmers in my office (who I consider a "layman's programmer") the base question, after explaining how combos in SNAIL work, how many combinations could there be? We talked and he did a little research himself and arrived at the following formula;
C*TL - and in the example I gave him using the same numbers used at the web site above arrived at 96,000 possible combinations.

The astronomical difference in the 3 numbers was such that I was still not satisfied I had that true answer.

I then asked another co-worker, whom I've known since he was a teenager, who is now close to 30 and admitted he started studying Algebra at the age of 6 or 7, and still just as precocious now as he apparently was then, with a book his uncle gave him that was published in 1920 or so and posed him the same question, after providing the same basic back ground on how our combos work. He put forth several factorial formulas to use, reviewed the formulas at the site I had used to get those crazy numbers and put forth the following formula;

((C+TL)*((C+TL+1)))/2, which, with at 1200X80 resulted in 819,840 possible combinations. Based on that number and, if we changed every combo, every week, it would take 5,693 years to get to every possible car and track combination. 285 generations (using a 20 year span for each gen) of Snails. We don't change every combo, every week, so it would probably take at least 33% longer to get there.

After seeing JLBowler's post regarding car and track counts I used the above formula on his car count and the track layout count shown here. That was similar in the result with 850,860 possible combinations taking 5,909 years and 295 generations of Snails to complete racing having used every car and every track.

It doesn't really matter who's "formula" we use to determine how many combinations there are. Even the "layman's programmer" solution would take 667 years and 33 generations of Snails to run every combo there is possible.

The conclusions I draw from all this are, the probability a combo is picked that replicates a previously run combo is not just low, it's infinitesimally low. Conversely, the probability of combo replication goes up every week we run an un-replicated combo. The increase in that probability is probably as low, or lower, as the chances of replicating one.

Another conclusion I've drawn is, prize winners have a very good chance of picking a track SNAIL has visited at least once in 135 weeks, but not a good chance of putting a car we've run at that specific track, unless that winner actually looks at the historical data and does it on purpose. Since there's a good chance SNAIL has run a track at least once, (no, I'm not going to look at the sheet to count every track ran) the only practical variable for original combo choice is the car. In this case, ignorance of the historical data could work better for picking an original combo. Random (read ignorant) choice will however provide a greater chance for replication versus being informed of which cars were raced and where.

The bottom line here is, winners, pick a car and track combo you feel will provide a fun experience for at least yourself and let the voting chits fall where they may.

Again, I'd like to thank everyone who played along here. It was entertaining and educational, hopefully for others besides myself.

Dragonwhisky out.

Did your fancy formula factor out combos where the car hits the Rev limiter?

Could not resist!

 

[oharagbr19]

@JLBowler @Dragonwhisky @zer05ive

@IceManFan_7


I think I got them all. It's a little past the deadline I set because I had a triple OT basketball game up in the mountains tonight and then stopped at the local watering hole for a beer. If I missed an official suggestion, I apologize. Dragonwhisky's little contest and some suggestions that are not even possible clogged up the thread a little bit.

Pick on ASAP but not later than whatever the deadline I set many pages ago. I'll go find it and edit it in here.

Edit: You have until 6 PM eastern time to make a pick.[/QUOTE]

We ran the Élan/Autumn Ring combo last night with 7 people in the room and we all had fun, real fun!

 

[Dragonwhisky]

Did your fancy formula factor out combos where the car hits the Rev limiter?

Could not resist!

and a double at you.

No it did not.

I blame you for not being around to outsource the fancy formulas to.

 

[Rednose58]

Division 6 Results 1/18/15

Congrats to @soundtiger95

1st - @soundtiger95 2nd @singlepaddy - 3rd @TEX36

Wins:

Round 1 Race 1 : 1st @BayouSimDrifter 2nd @soundtiger95 3rd @McTrucker
Round 1 Race 2 : 1st @DGuzmanG 2nd @TomMang_68 3rd @singlepaddy

Round 2 Race 1 : 1st @Rob Brown 2nd @CanuckleheadII 3rd @soundtiger95
Round 2 Race 2 : 1st @TEX36 2nd @goofytyler 3rd @Rob Brown

Round 3 Race 1 : 1st @TEX36 2nd @goofytyler 3rd @CanuckleheadII
Round 3 Race 2 : 1st @soundtiger95 2nd @TEX36 3rd @BayouSimDrifter


Fast Lap Honors:

Marcos @ Silverstone - @soundtiger95 1:07.124
RUF @ Tokyo - @Rob Brown 1:52.090
Lexus @ Grand Valley - @goofytyler 1:56.090

You guys must have had an absolute AWSOME night. I looked at the scores and there is only a 4 point spread between the winner and 7th place

 

[zer05ive]

I am certain vsfit had nothing heavy in mind with his question there. Thinking maybe a little cookie reading might be in order here. @zer05ive , would you please do us the honor of a link?

What cookie??

Oh, maybe you mean this? (credit to @Oshawa-Joe for posting it a looong time ago)

 

[BayouSimDrifter]

You guys must have had an absolute AWSOME night. I looked at the scores and there is only a 4 point spread between the winner and 7th place

View attachment 295666

The RUF combo was the worst. The Grand Valley races were the most intense and had the best battles. Myself and @McTrucker had a nice battle that still has me smiling.

 

[IceManFan_7]

Prize A Selection: Lotus Élan S1 '62 at Autumn Ring Reverse. Comfort soft tires.

 

[gotdirt410sp]

Do we have to run ABS, or can we turn it off if we like too? Does not say you cant any where jw

 

[tarnheld]

In my research today to find the "true" number of combinations possible I also visited this page. Input the same two numbers, 1200 (Cars) and 80 (Track Layouts) which, as it turns out, aren't precisely accurate, but close enough, given the results, and it spit out this number;

The math geek in me urges me to add my 2 cents to the discussion:

The number you have posted is the number of lists containing 80 distinct cars chosen from 1200 cars. This suggests that @watermelon punch's club will not run out of car lists in the near future.

You are searching for all combinations of one car from all cars C and one track from all tracks T, suggesting the Rule of Product C*T. So @JLBowler and your young co-worker got it right. 👍

Combinatorics baffles me most of the time.
But it's nothing compared to real numbers.

EDIT:

Bad News: as i see it the probability of having a duplicate combo race is the same as in the Birthday Problem. The number of races you have to run to have a 0.5 change of duplicate combos is approximated by sqrt(C*T) ~ 310. So after 310 races, you have a good chance that a car/track combo was run twice.

 

[CoachMK21]

Do we have to run ABS, or can we turn it off if we like too? Does not say you cant any where jw

You can change ABS as you see fit.

 

[Dragonwhisky]

The math geek in me urges me to add my 2 cents to the discussion:

The number you have posted is the number of lists containing 80 distinct cars chosen from 1200 cars. This suggests that @watermelon punch's club will not run out of car lists in the near future.

You are searching for all combinations of one car from all cars C and one track from all tracks T, suggesting the Rule of Product C*T. So @JLBowler and your young co-worker got it right. 👍

Combinatorics baffles me most of the time.
But it's nothing compared to real numbers.

EDIT:

Bad News: as i see it the probability of having a duplicate combo race is the same as in the Birthday Problem. The number of races you have to run to have a 0.5 change of duplicate combos is approximated by sqrt(C*T) ~ 310. So after 310 races, you have a good chance that a car/track combo was run twice.

So, if I'm understanding what you're saying correctly the combination possibilities with a set of cars equalling 1199 and a set of 115 track layouts is 137,885. Doesn't really change my conclusions much. If we changed out every combo (which we don't) for every week we race a year, it would take 1 year shy of 1,000 for us to work through them all. 50 generations of Snails. It's a completely unreachable goal and should not even be a consideration when making a prize pick. We are just flat never going to get there.

@CoachMK21 posted a statistic back around SNAIL's 3rd year anniversary and in it, I think he showed the total number of races ran to date. Pretty sure it was well over 300 then. What's all this tell me? We're going to have repeats. It's inescapable at this point.

 

[chevron]

The RUF combo was the worst. The Grand Valley races were the most intense and had the best battles. Myself and @McTrucker had a nice battle that all has me smiling.

It's funny how we all vary in taste/experiences as I feel the exact opposite! I loved the RUF and am bored by the 'Toyota'...

 

[tarnheld]

So, if I'm understanding what you're saying correctly the combination possibilities with a set of cars equalling 1199 and a set of 115 track layouts is 137,885. Doesn't really change my conclusions much. If we changed out every combo (which we don't) for every week we race a year, it would take 1 year shy of 1,000 for us to work through them all. 50 generations of Snails. It's a completely unreachable goal and should not even be a consideration when making a prize pick. We are just flat never going to get there.

@CoachMK21 posted a statistic back around SNAIL's 3rd year anniversary and in it, I think he showed the total number of races ran to date. Pretty sure it was well over 300 then. What's all this tell me? We're going to have repeats. It's inescapable at this point.

You are right with the time doing all 137,885 races. And the probability from the Birthday Problem is only valid if the races are chosen uniform at random from all possible races, that doesn't apply here. So don't worry getting duplicate combos. It was just an interesting math brain teaser. I wasted enough time today thinking about it, but it was totally worth it, don't you think?

Now can you let me gloss over that statistic please?

 

[DesertPenguin09]

Prize A Selection: Lotus Élan S1 '62 at Autumn Ring Reverse. Comfort soft tires.

Yay, another slow car at a tiny track where keeping momentum is all that matters... I like combos like the Lexus at Grand Valley. Keep those up. Real driver's cars on challenging tracks.

 

[CoachMK21]

You are right with the time doing all 137,885 races. And the probability from the Birthday Problem is only valid if the races are chosen uniform at random from all possible races, that doesn't apply here. So don't worry getting duplicate combos. It was just an interesting math brain teaser. I wasted enough time today thinking about it, but it was totally worth it, don't you think?

Now can you let me gloss over that statistic please?

This post contains the statistics I put together from the 2014 racing year. I don't remember doing an exact number of races, but it might be in there as a coincidental stat.


EDIT:
Doing some quick maths (sorry, I don't know why I want to put an 's' on that right now. It probably has to do with me being so much younger than a couple other BoD members -

3 combos a night for 48 weeks gives us 144 combos with 2 races per combo equals 288 races.


EDIT 2:
Maybe if I do that again next year, I'll do some more "leg work" and figure out exactly how many total laps were completed by Snails. That would be an interesting number.

 

[BayouSimDrifter]

Yay, another slow car at a tiny track where keeping momentum is all that matters... I like combos like the Lexus at Grand Valley. Keep those up. Real driver's cars on challenging tracks.

Not really, a real drivers car would be that RUF. I may not have been much good with it on Tokyo but I'm pretty sure if we brought it to another track Sunday would've been alot different. The Lexus is fun but it isn't a challenge to drive.