DLC – journey to the 500 cars

[zzz_pt]

Hey everyone,
This thread is the place to discuss future GTS’s DLCs. This is a topic that some people have been talking about recently and at 25 days of GTS's launch, some of us are a bit concerned with the fact that no information regarding DLC or a season pass has came out. Considering the limited number of cars and tracks we're expecting, the absence of a season pass from the pre-orders packages is also strange.

I’ll focus only on the cars, because we have Kaz on record saying he would like to have around 500 cars on GTS (with race cars and all type of road cars, old and new). That's the only number / info we have regarding DLC. We all expect new tracks as well but nothing so specific was said or written up until now. So, lets go!


1- Numbers

Number of cars expected on October 17: 150 -180
Number of cars Kaz as wants GTS to have: 500

So, PD needs to put into the game between 300 and 350 cars. Given that Forza and PC release a new game roughly every 24 months and a new PlayStation could come out in 2020, I’d say it doesn’t make sense for PD to have these 500 cars in GTS after 2020. So, that’s 3 years to complete the list.

That means PD has 30 - 36 months to reach the 500 number. That means 10 new cars each month (10 * 30)

And if each car model takes ~6 months to make according to PD, that means that at any given moment (including now), PD needs 6 teams of 10 full-time (8h) employees, each team developing 10 new cars to be released at the same time. These teams need to be working already and would only stop by the end of 2019.

If we get 5 cars a month, we will only get to 500+ in 2022/23.
Even if we point to 2023 to reach the 500 cars, that means 5 new cars per month, on average.

500 cars at the end of 2018? That would be great! 22 new cars per month, starting in November. Not happening. If we take the 400 number, that would mean over 6 new cars per month until mid 2020.

The issue is: no studio ever made a DLC with (let alone with so much content) every single month for 3 years in a row. Not one.

2- Bling-bling

Some references:
Forza - DLC Packs of 7 to 10 cars: $6,99
Assetto Corsa – DLC Packs of 7 to 10 cars: €6,99 - €7,99
Assetto Corsa – DLC Pack of 7 cars + 1 track: €9,99
Pcars – DLC Pack 4 cars + 3 locations: €7,49
Pcars – DLC Pack 2 cars + 2 locations: €3,99
Pcars – DLC Packs of 3 to 6 cars: €3,49 - €5,49

Average price is .75$ - 1$ per car

PD needs to put out +300 cars in GTS. I don’t think they will give out half of them for free (that’s the same number of cars we’ll have on day 1, with the full game). So, we‘re looking at something like $150 - $250, assuming some cars will be given out for free.

Another thing that makes me sceptical is how much PD likes duplicates. But no one will buy DLC with duplicates or very similar cars to those they already have... This means that a lot of those 300 – 350 cars can be duplicates, put in the DLC packs mixed with unique cars (so, we buy 6 new unique cars and get a few “new” duplicates, versions of existing ones). From the list of ~140 we have now, only 80 cars are 100% real and unique. All the others are fictional or PD’s interpretations based of real world cars.

ps: I'm also excluding a GTS2 coming out in 2020 with 500 cars, for example, because that game wouldn't be GTS any more.

3 - Question

In the past, PD also said we would get a new Vision GT per month for 24 months. A single car. They also said we would have regular DLCs. Not to mention the course creator that took ages to arrive to our... mobile devices, even though it was supposed to be a day1 feature.

Given these points,
A) Do you think PD will deliver (500 cars) in 3 years?
B) How much are you willing to pay for DLC?


Feel free to add your comments and concerns regarding the DLC in general (cars, tracks, scapes, stickers, etc).
Cheers!

 

[ImaRobot]

I voted for option number one, but it's not entirely my full opinion. I do not think that they'd reach 500 cars in a reasonable time frame, and while I do expect paid DLC, I don't expect it all to be paid. I'm sure there will be freebies thrown in here and there, much like T10 does it with their game, or at least I hope. I'm fine with the usual industry standard of 1$ per vehicle, and I'll likely only buy the ones cars/packs that appeal to me the most.

Forza releases about 7 cars a month with some thrown in here and there throughout the month with things like the Forzathon events. So in 6 months, they have at least 42 DLC vehicles added to the game. Now, what worries me is that if they actually try to produce 500 cars, that it'll either take way too long to happen, or likely just wont at all. Everyone in the industry is seemingly at a much lower output than Forza is, and unless they adopt some sort of outsourcing or hire a rather large amount of people, I'm not sure they can meet that goal.

However, even if they don't meet 500 in 3+ years, If they can build up the car roster considerably, than that is a plus in my book. I just see it as Kaz saying more odd things, partly.

 

[Coiler]

There is no way Polyphony Digital will deliver all those cars in reasonable time . We are still waiting for things promised to drop in GT5.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

I expect that majority of content added in 6-12 months following release will be free...

And dlc's, payed ones, to be offered from time to time. But at modest rates.

 

[dimassa19]

We already have 150, there are 'only' 350 left...

 

[GT6mebe]

You are not getting 200 cars as DLC. I would be surprised if we got 100. Also I hope they do Spec releases like with GT5. Bear in mind PS5 might be coming out in 2020 so chances are PD already know about it, therefore things will be kept back for GTS2 or GT7.

 

[marcvic]

*No and I won’t spend over 60$ on DLC.

Nice poll!

 

[TS050]

I don’t think they’ll reach 500 cars in the next 3 years.

I definitely think they’ll be some DLC at some point, which is great, as the car list is pretty small at the moment, but 500 cars seems to be pretty over-ambitious.

My feeling are basically the same as @ImaRobot’s - the only way they could ever get anything close to 500 cars is by outsourcing, but we’ve learned that PD are pretty adverse to the idea.




It’d be cool to be surprised, though.

 

[jm79]

Considering how slow and stubborn and idiosyncratic PD seem to be, I doubt they will hit 500 at any point. Also, copying the Forza model is most likely anathema to them.

I would think they'll dump huge DLC for free, like a Le Mans pack, or a Super GT set, but not be regular or predictable (or communicative) in any way. But what does drop will be free or amazing value.

If I'm honest, however, in the long term, I strongly suspect as a development studio they are on Sony's hitlist of closures. I hope not, but Sony are pretty uncompromising with these things, and if GTS doesn't sell too well, then... who knows?

The genre, however, will never die!

 

[SDSPOWER01]

They have a bunch of cars from GT5-6 so if they really wanna go for 500 cars they will use old assets. I believe the comment from "we start rebuilding them from scratch" is simply refering to the cars showned as of 2016- Launch.

I could be wrong but I would add a maybe and I will not pay for all DLC's.

 

[danh25]

I look at spec-2 with more content and reduced price, from then on some dlc of my interest I will buy it.

 

[MisterOne77]

There is no way Polyphony Digital will deliver all those cars in reasonable time . We are still waiting for things promised to drop in GT5.

What are those things?

 

[AH49]

I'm expecting GT Sport to take me right up to PS5 in 2-3yrs time. With likely backwards compatibility, it will also be easier to continue playing once many transition to the new system.

That being the case, I'd be willing to pay a typical season pass price (£40) for a full year of content. By the nature of GT Sport, and historically being Sony's biggest franchise, I could see it spearheading a cross gen, service based format. Once the fundamentals are in place there is zero reason to produce full sequels.

 

[praiano63]

USD 0,50 by car with this level of accuracy is ok for me.
Yes, but I might not get the 500 cars if that costs me over 150$.

EDIT: I would like PD stop with this GT7 - GT8..... progression. For me if the name stay GTsport like Iracing stay iracing since so much time, it is ok. I would love to see them work on the quality, selecting what people love to do in the game and not throw away all the good things they did in the past to rebuild a brand new game each time. They have the base for this now talking about graphics for example. All the rest can evolve , like physics , in game options......... PS5 or super computer for VR total support...

 

[jm79]

I'm expecting GT Sport to take me right up to PS5 in 2-3yrs time. With likely backwards compatibility, it will also be easier to continue playing once many transition to the new system.

That being the case, I'd be willing to pay a typical season pass price (£40) for a full year of content. By the nature of GT Sport, and historically being Sony's biggest franchise, I could see it spearheading a cross gen, service based format. Once the fundamentals are in place there is zero reason to produce full sequels.

I agree with everything you say, and hope to see most, if not all of it happen, but there may be a lot of resistance to this model of 'game as a service', especially on console.

It also needs a lot of online engagement, and that's hardly a given.

Will be interesting to see how it pans out.

 

[Johnnypenso]

I love DLC. I think it is one of the best things to happen to gaming in the last 10-15 years. Nothing better than anticipating car and track packs for a game that you love and want to continue playing. I bought all the DLC for GT5, AC, PCARS1 and already have the season pass for PCARS2. I even ran a TT competition here on GTP a couple of years back and gave away DLC packs as prizes. If I end up getting GTS and like it and want to continue playing I'll get the DLC for that too, so long as it's not outrageously priced. I don't think there's much chance of getting 500 DLC cars short of a copy/paste of the PS3 era library of premiums and I don't think it would be reasonable to sell them at the industry standard rate of $0.75 to $1.00 per car either. I expect a mix of free and paid, with the refurbished PS3 cars free and new stuff paid.

I'm expecting GT Sport to take me right up to PS5 in 2-3yrs time. With likely backwards compatibility, it will also be easier to continue playing once many transition to the new system.

That being the case, I'd be willing to pay a typical season pass price (£40) for a full year of content. By the nature of GT Sport, and historically being Sony's biggest franchise, I could see it spearheading a cross gen, service based format. Once the fundamentals are in place there is zero reason to produce full sequels.

I can think of $everal hundred million reasons to produce full sequels.

 

[AH49]

I can think of $everal hundred million reasons to produce full sequels.

Would arguably make far more if GT Sport was out day one on PS5, with current owners able to upgrade to "PS5 Edition" or whatever. Such a move would also enable PD to make a clear generational cut from PS4 to PS5 in terms of features, online car count etc.

You could have argued for putting GT6 on PS4, but that title had so many compromises, and legacy content dating back to PS2.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Would arguably make far more if GT Sport was out day one on PS5, with current owners able to upgrade to "PS5 Edition" or whatever. Such a move would also enable PD to make a clear generational cut from PS4 to PS5 in terms of features, online car count etc.

You could have argued for putting GT6 on PS4, but that title had so many compromises, and legacy content dating back to PS2.

A brand new game at full price also makes a clear generational cut from console generation to console generation. PD/Sony will choose the method that they think will generate the most revenue. My money is on a new game every time.

 

[marcvic]

I'm of the bunch in hoping that GTS is the only PD title to hit the PS4, while just building on cars & tracks. Just have a fresh next gen title, within a year of the PS5 release.

I'm expecting around 70-100 cars and 7-10 tracks over the next 4-5 years - I don't mind if they charge for them. However any NSX, GTR, Lexus RCF, i.e. any-model-already-in-the-game should not cost money. Maybe add a special event or two (like Goodwood and Sierra - maybe the rumored Pikes Peak).

Then GT on PS5 should release with around 400 super-hyper premium models, and 40-45 tracks, dynamic everything.

If I'm honest, however, in the long term, I strongly suspect as a development studio they are on Sony's hitlist of closures.

PD are coming off a hugely successful PS3 cycle (despite all the controversy). Sony would have to be bonkers to release that kind of talent - if they're not going to support PD as a studio, there is some investor/company that would surely fund a project from them.

 

[Scaff]

Sony would have to be bonkers to release that kind of talent - if they're not going to support PD as a studio, there is some investor/company that would surely fund a project from them.

Possibly, but as PD are a wholey owned Sony subsidiary it wouldn't be GT and it wouldn't be from PD.

The most likely outcomes in that scenario are either the core form a new company and IP or the tea, get headhunted by the other studios around.

Personally I hope it doesn't happen, as for better or worse PD have been a part of the gaming landscape for a very long time, but after Sony's approach to both Studio Liverpool and Evolution I guess anything is possible.

 

[doblocruiser]

I rarely buy DLC and most of the time I get it for free with the GOTY edition but there are a few exceptions. I am very picky when it comes to cars I'll purchase as DLC so I really never have bought a seasonpass or whatsoever. I rather pick a car from the DLC which I like a lot and simply pay for that single car. Or let me select cars from all the DLC and create a reduction dlc pack or something.

I don't think that PD will hit those 500 cars. I think 300 to 350 would be reasonable to expect from them. A rather would see them adding some more locations and tracks because personally I am pretty happy with the car so far.

 

[GT6mebe]

If I'm honest, however, in the long term, I strongly suspect as a development studio they are on Sony's hitlist of closures. I hope not, but Sony are pretty uncompromising with these things, and if GTS doesn't sell too well, then... who knows?

Wait....you actually think SCE's biggest IP in 25 years, studio that has sold the most games and made the most money is in danger of closing....hahahahahahaha.

We've been over this. PD are treated like kings at SCE: they are allowed to do what they want and contribute towards the future of Playstation.

Personally I hope it doesn't happen, as for better or worse PD have been a part of the gaming landscape for a very long time, but after Sony's approach to both Studio Liverpool and Evolution I guess anything is possible.

Still sad about Liverpool but both of these studios struggled to fine hits in terms of sales and there's also the expense of UK game development.

 

[cutmeamango]

Every original track and car model (ex.: Gr3 version of a DLC car): free.
Every licensed track and car: paid.

2 track every 3 months, alternating between paid/free. 4-5 dollars each track.
6-8 cars every month. 5-4 free, 3-2 paid. 1 dollar each car.

At 84 cars a year, you'd end at ~400 cars in 3 years.

Am I willing to pay 56-60 dollars a year for extra content? Probably.

 

[jm79]

Wait....you actually think SCE's biggest IP in 25 years, studio that has sold the most games and made the most money is in danger of closing....hahahahahahaha.

We've been over this. PD are treated like kings at SCE: they are allowed to do what they want and contribute towards the future of Playstation.



Still sad about Liverpool but both of these studios struggled to fine hits in terms of sales and there's also the expense of UK game development.

I'm not saying it will happen, and I sincerely hope it doesn't, but I'm sensing a slight lack of enthusiasm from Sony towards the new game, and they have proven to be very harsh with studio closures in the past. You do have a point about costs of development in the UK, but I can't imagine Japan to be much cheaper.

Also, I qualified the statement with a mention of sales. If it sells poorly, they may be in trouble. That's all. Competition is fierce nowadays.

However, personally, I think it will sell well, but let's wait and see. There are lots of opinions on this, and nothing is guaranteed in this industry.

 

[Lord Protector]

As much as I hope there will be tons of DLCs, I don't have my hopes up, but I'll pay for every single DLC as long as it consists of either cars or tracks.

 

[sems4arsenal]

The fact there is no season pass is weird. It could indicate a lack of plan. It could also indicate that a lot of the DLC will be free.

Hoping for the later.

 

[C_Raccoon23]

I'm not saying it will happen, and I sincerely hope it doesn't, but I'm sensing a slight lack of enthusiasm from Sony towards the new game, and they have proven to be very harsh with studio closures in the past. You do have a point about costs of development in the UK, but I can't imagine Japan to be much cheaper.

Also, I qualified the statement with a mention of sales. If it sells poorly, they may be in trouble. That's all. Competition is fierce nowadays.

However, personally, I think it will sell well, but let's wait and see. There are lots of opinions on this, and nothing is guaranteed in this industry.

Even if GTS were to sell poorly, I don't see how that would spell doom for PD as a studio. Gran Turismo has had way too much consistent success in the past thanks to PD to just abandon like that.

At worst, PD would just have to go back to the drawing board regarding the direction of GT if enough people aren't on board with what Sport is trying to accomplish.

 

[Ryan81]

Absolutely zero chance of 500 cars. Took them 4 years to give us 150. With all of Kaz's usual gusto and BS about it being so much easier to program on PS4 blah blah....this seems just like more BS.

 

[Ryan81]

If there is indeed no Season Pass, that tells me either DLC will be very patchy and infrequent or very little DLC will be coming ala GT5 and GT6.

 

[Sick Cylinder]

Looking at the poll results, about a third of people believe they can release 500 cars in three years. But, the game got delayed by over a year during which time PD added only about 40 cars to the roster.

Unless PD are developing a super new system for massaging old premium assets into shiny new super premium assets, then reaching 500 cars sounds virtually impossible.

In the past PD have shown that they can't work at a pace which allows the release of timely, significant DLC and still prepare the assets for upcoming titles - because of their slowness they have had to save assets for the next title.

I am used to grand statements which amount to little so I have set my expectations very low to avoid disappointment.