Economy

[STFan]

Press Release Source: The Conference Board


"2004 Will Be the U.S.'S Best Year Economically in Last 20 Years, The Conference Board Reports in a Revised Forecast"
Thursday December 11, 11:01 am ET

NEW YORK, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Revising its year-end economic forecast sharply upward, The Conference Board today projected that real GDP growth will hit 5.7% next year, making 2004 the best year economically in the last 20 years.
The forecast, by Conference Board Chief Economist Gail Fosler, expects worker productivity, which set a 20-year record in the third quarter, to rise at a healthy 3.6% next year. That would follow a gain of 4.3% this year.

The economic forecast is prepared for more than 2,500 corporate members of The Conference Board's global business network, based in 66 nations.

KEY BAROMETERS FLASHING GROWTH

"Growing business spending and continued strength in consumer spending are generating growth throughout the U.S. economy," says Fosler. "This burgeoning strength is reflected in The Conference Board's widely-watched Leading Economic Indicators, the Consumer Confidence Index and the Help-Wanted Advertising Index. While the labor market, a critical factor in sustaining growth, is growing slowly, a pick-up in hiring may already have begun."

Real consumer spending, which continues to fuel growth, will increase at a 4.7% pace next year, up from about 3.2% this year. Another gain of 4.3% is projected for 2005.

While the U.S. economy is expected to generate more than one million new jobs next year, the unemployment rate will edge down only slightly, averaging 5.6% in 2004.

The Conference Board forecast notes that as the U.S. economy bounces back, so is Europe, although growth will be subdued compared to most other major parts of the world. "For all the concern about a weak dollar," says Fosler, "the dollar will be worth more than the euro by the end of the year."

Real capital spending, which will rise by only 2.7% this year, will climb 11.7% next year and another 8.6% in 2005. Pre-tax corporate operating profits will top $1 trillion next year, up from a projected $928 billion this year. Another trillion-dollar-plus gain in profits is expected in 2005.

The continued recovery in business profits, which was a key ingredient in funding new investment (crucial in making 2004 a strong growth year), depends on price relief. Business profits will benefit from both improved volume and recovering profit margins in 2004, as inflation creeps back toward 3% by the end of the year.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031211/nyth120_1.html


But, here's reality . . .
This short-term economic boom is because of Bush's tax cut. However, Bush's liberal agenda (and no he is not conservative) has made the $ go down the toilet. Taxation is equal to how much the government spends (-just remember that).
OPEC is now thinking about switching to the euro because the U.S. government has no fiscal conservative responsibility. If this happens, then that would be devastating. As we speak the economy (long-term) is evaporating. Anyone that has open eyes can see that.
Liberals that hate Bush don't know reality. As soon as Bush became president he moved this nation so far to the left it's off the map. Bush has done more for the liberal cause then Clinton or Carter ever did. Bush has expanded government to such a high rate it is scary. Bush may have pushed one or two conservative principals (and a few of the big), but the great majority of them are liberal principals. And so he is not "pushing a radical right-wing agenda on us" in fact it is the opposite...

 

[milefile]

How does this effect you? How will this effect individuals? I'm curious to hear your take on how this will effect Americans.

 

[emad]

how is a tax cut going to help the country? They obviously need money for the war effort as well as the craploads of dough he'll need if he decides to offer nasa the cash to go to the moon (imho, all of this is only to get more votes). The economy there isn't doing that great while Canada's is improving - At this point, it's impossible to tell if the American economy dropped or if Canada experienced a boom b/c the exchange rate improved to 1.3 from 1.48ish. To top that, isn't this going to make the country's national debt go up even more than the 6.9 trillion it currently is? (from http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/) - apparently the debt has grown 2.9 billion per day.

realtime clock: http://www.toptips.com/debtclock.html

Not sure how accurate the realtime one is, but the national debt IS in the trillions (did a small thing on it in my business classes). But then again, Canada is about as bad (proportionately) so I can't say much there. But back on topic, won't a tax cut just make things worse? Or will government spendings in other areas have to drop more?

 

[Danoff]

But, here's reality . . .

I'm sure you're qualified to make predictions about the economy.

 

[1X83Z]

Originally posted by STFan

But, here's reality . . .
This short-term economic boom is because of Bush's tax cut. However, Bush's liberal agenda (and no he is not conservative) has made the $ go down the toilet. Taxation is equal to how much the government spends (-just remember that).

I'm not even going to read the rest because you're already so wrong.

Just because he's a big spender doesn't mean he's a liberal. Make no mistake, the man is conservative. He spends highly on defence for a war. Does that sound liberal? He's not Hillary Clinton, voting for spending bills to save rabbits or stop dumping - any half-educated person can see that. Also, if you can actually prove that the economic boom is because of Bush's tax cut, then you've done a wonderful job - but you can't. And you won't.

Nevertheless, I'm glad the reality involves your rightist spin. Bush probably is a liberal compared to you.

 

[Kent]

10,000... a bad number for dems counting on a bad economy in 2004. (for election purposes only)

But yeah... the dow at 10,000.

Regardless of party, we should all be happy that the economy has gotten back on its feet. (thats also regardless of why it happened)

 

[Talentless]

Some claim Bush is a centrist, at least within the conservative wing of the Republican party.

 

[milefile]

I'm beginning to wonder if STfan will ever be back.

 

[Kent]

Btw, Im estimating the dow to be at upon closing monday afternoon.