I've done some of my usual strategy testing. Results below.
Disclaimer: I feel it is necessary to mention right off the top that this reverse direction of the track is pretty much entirely new to me, especially driving the X2019 here. I've figured out a way to drive around the track. It's slower than
@Zorz's, but that's normal. I seem to be seeing stronger effects of tire wear on my lap times than he did. This is probably a quirk of how I'm driving. This is all to say, take all these results with a grain of salt. What is true for me and my way of driving may not be for you.
I did test stints on each tire compound -- 10RS, 20RM, and 13RH -- in Custom Races against one AI driver, with the fuel and tire multipliers matching this round's. For weather, I picked early morning with S05.
I did a couple runs each of 10RS, 20RM stints. From those, I fabricated 'optimal' stints by picking the fastest of each lap. I only had time (and interest) for one run of 13RH. That's why the chart has a few spikes in it -- mistakes were made.
Summary:
| Tire compound | Laps | Opt time | Best time | Avg time | Total time |
|---|
| RS | 10 | 1:28.719 | 1:28.808 | 1:30.211 | 15:02.113 |
| RM | 20 | 1:29.600 | 1:29.689 | 1:31.085 | 30:21.695 |
| RH | 13 | 1:30.882 | 1:30.965 | 1:32.227 | 19:58.945 |
Tire tread levels a finish:
| Tire compound | Laps | Front Left | Front Right | Rear Left | Rear Right |
|---|
| RS | 10 | 35% | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| RM | 20 | 35% | 25% | 20% | 5% |
| RH | 13 | 70% | 65% | 60% | 55% |
Lap times:
Simulated strategies:
Using these lap times, I can simulate various strategies for a full race. I assumed an additional pit loss of 17 seconds for the 2-pit strategies, which was an estimate based on the lap times
@Zorz posted yesterday. I simulated 38 strategies in total. These were 5 fastest:
| Strategy | Stint 1 | Stint 2 | Stint 3 | Additional pit loss | Total time |
|---|
| 10RS-20RM | 15:02.113 | 30:21.695 | | | 45:23.808 |
| 9RS-9RS-12RM | 13:30.029 | 13:30.029 | 18:06.991 | 0:17.000 | 45:24.049 |
| 9RS-8RS-13RM | 13:30.029 | 11:59.557 | 19:38.368 | 0:17.000 | 45:24.954 |
| 10RS-9RS-11RM | 15:02.113 | 13:30.029 | 16:35.914 | 0:17.000 | 45:25.056 |
| 8RS-8RS-14RM | 11:59.557 | 11:59.557 | 21:10.055 | 0:17.000 | 45:26.169 |
I'm surprised at how close the 9RS-9RS-12RM strategy is to the 10RS-20RM one. There are lots of caveats, of course, but for me, it looks like a 2-stop is viable. It would give me more options in the race, and avoid some of the dangers of driving on totally bald tires. It seems like it might be the right choice for me.
EDIT: All of the raw data can be found in
this spreadsheet.