Iraq prepares for elections

[ledhed]

Well in a suprise the Iraqis gained sovergnty two days early no doubt to take the steam out of big jihadist bomber party. So now that the fate of Iraq is in the hands of the Iraqis ( with help from the coalition ) how do you see it turning out ?
do you see a Muslim democracy like Turkey largely secular or will it be a batleground for a change to a theocracy like Iran ? Or do you simply think that the country will devolve into chaos like Lebenon ?
I for one wish them luck they will need it.

 

[DQuaN]

I have a feeling that whoever gets elected into power will not live long. 👎

 

[///M-Spec]

That's a darn good question and I don't really know. I read a few months ago that while many Iraqis sympathize with radical types like al-Sadr, they won't necessarily vote for him in an election.

I think there will be a surprising and disturbing amount of support for radical clerics like al-Sadr as time goes on. I also think there will be a lot of ethnic power struggling and more chaos that unfortunately will result in civilian deaths. We can only hope that in the end, Iraqis elect themselves a moderate government. Even modern, progressive secular countries like Pakistan is not free from fundamentalism.


M

 

[Duke]

I have to agree with ///M-Spec analysis, unfortunately. It is clear that there are a number of extremely vocal Muslim clerics who will not tolerate anything that smells remotely of American decadence. This is made abundantly clear by their willingness to kill their own citizens who are perceived as submitting weakly to American influence. Note how many bombings recently are aimed at internal Iraqi targets, in an attempt to destroy the possibility of transferring sovereignty. I think it was an excellent move to do so early. Now, further terrorist attacks are harder to sell as "resistance to invaders".

If these radicals had any interest in meaningful participation at all, they would lay low and follow all the rules in order to make Iraq appear as stable as possible to get as many coalition troops out ot the country as quickly as possible, THEN they would make their move politically. But they're not interested in participating - they are interested in dictating, just like our recently-removed friend Saddam. They are not interested in improving Iraq in any way - they only want to use it as another tool to whitewash America as the villian. If that means more civillians suffer, it's no big thing to a radical fundamentalist.

 

[87chevy]

That is a good question. I wish them luck also. I know that it is going to rough on them for the next several years. I really am a little worried for the Kurds. America kinda screwed them over the first time, and i don't think we are really going out of our way to help them this time. There will be bloodshed, but they have to go through the process. There are a lot of educated people in Iraq, and many who want to adobt Western ideas. They love their Counterstrike over there. Nearly every neighborhood that can afford it, has a couple Internet/LAN cafes. I think (pray) that the first government is fairly moderate. And hopefully people will embrace the new govrnment and realize the quacks like Al-Sadr will not take them in the dircetion they need to go in the world community.

 

[87chevy]

If these radicals had any interest in meaningful participation at all, they would lay low and follow all the rules in order to make Iraq appear as stable as possible to get as many coalition troops out ot the country as quickly as possible, THEN they would make their move politically. But they're not interested in participating - they are interested in dictating, just like our recently-removed friend Saddam. They are not interested in improving Iraq in any way - they only want to use it as another tool to whitewash America as the villian. If that means more civillians suffer, it's no big thing to a radical fundamentalist.

Exactly. This is why they are radicals and not "rebels".

 

[ledhed]

there are different types of rebels . You have the home grown shiite al Sadars and the sunni Bathist..both with different adgendas and the foriegn Al- Queda types that just want to kill Americans . The only thing they all have in common besides killing all the Americans they can, is the desire to overthrow the new Iraqi government. The Shiites want the forieners out and a government dominated if not controlled by clergy. The Bathist are out of power and its fight or die. The Al Quida types want a fundementalist government aligned with them like the former taliban.
The new Iraqi security firces/ army will have plenty of target practice.
Bottom line is its up to the people of Iraq to EARN there freedom and make life miserable for the insurgents by turning them in and dening them a place to hide.
Things will be interesting. But in the end whatever form of government they choose , it will belong to them. a democratically formed government in the Middle East now that will be VERY interesting.