This is an incredibly strong, purely political move on behalf of Palin, and as of right now, I do not know if it was smart or not. On the one hand, I believe this gives her an open opportunity to run for the Senate, pushing herself onto the national stage once again, and surely with hopes for the Presidency in 2012... But all of that could easily be a wash with, as others have pointed out, her semi-tarnished reputation with her resignation, other controversies, as well as the 2008 campaign.
I find her style far too abrasive for most Americans, nearly degrading in some respects when it comes to the female vote, so I really have to wonder about her presumed national political motives. I could see her wanting to lead the RNC and GOP into
something, but her brand isn't selling. Or, at least, not in the numbers that it used to.
If the GOP wants to de-rail the Obama band wagon they really need to run someone that is the polar opposite of Bush on many issues, that speaks to the youth, and actualy follows conservative ideas that work for this country (not just the ones imposed by religion and lobbyist)....actually that sounds a lot like Ron Paul.
Well, politically, the GOP is going to sink or swim in the next four years. There is such a wide swath of things that the GOP leadership needs to address before they can become a legitimate contender to the Democrats right now, it would be very difficult for them to pull things completely together by 2010 or 2012. However, you mentioned the two most important things there (highlighted in
bold).
The GOP is losing on the demographic front, particularly as an increased number of young people are being wooed by Democrats and their message, not to mention the growing number of minorities in the country that are typically more likely to vote Democrat to begin with. It would be safe to say that an adoption of policies that are targeted directly at younger people would surely bring in more votes, focusing in on gay marriage, education costs, the environment and technology as well. However, many of those fly directly in the face of what Palin (and the like) want to talk about, and run on, and its going to continue to hurt the party. Furthering that problem is the rate at which the east coast and the mid-west are going blue, areas which were Republican strongholds little more than 30 years ago. If the GOP can't keep a hold of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and even Michigan, they will be pushed further into the South, and remain otherwise a regional party, one that will not be able to win [national] elections, period.
The point you make on "true" conservatism, however, rings most-true. Despite the increased social Liberalism among the youth, there are still a lot of kids who prefer the more Libertarian message that Ron Paul carried during the 2008 election. Like it or not, the "Conservative" movement that the Republicans talk about is far from the true conservative message. These are universal principles that most Americans agree to, regardless of what their overall political outlook is. Hone in on a clean message with that in mind, really honestly what Ron Paul talked about in 2008, and I really do think the GOP could have a legitimate future ahead of them. The problem is that if you use the "Fourth Republic" mindset (Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt, Obama), there is one hell of a political tidal wave to get through. Catch it early enough, and I believe that a Ron Paul-esque message could make a big surprise in what will likely be an Obama-Democrat era, but that will come at a massive cost to the Reagan-GOP machine that has dominated the conservative movement for more than a generation.
...But back on topic...
The move by Palin will be interesting to watch, but I don't see it being anywhere close to an easy fight for her in the coming years. The demographics are still too narrow, the message is not hitting the youth vote, much less the female ones. We'll see.