Poll: Would Senna have won more World Championships?

[Liquid]

Some speculation broke out in the unpopular opinions thread and I'm curious to know what the rest of the forum thinks.

I'll C+V my thoughts:

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In the two years Hill was a challenger to Schumacher, 1994 and 1995, Williams did not have great cars or were uncompetitive against the Benetton team in other ways.

My hypothesis has always been that Senna would have struggled in 1994 and 1995 as Hill and Williams actually did; the 1995 season wasn't even a challenge and 1994 only went down to the last race due to Schumacher's two race ban. Benetton clearly had the superior car. By this point at the end of 1995, aged 35, he would have retired or maybe taken Eddie Jordan on his offer of 50% team ownership and have become a driver/owner for Jordan in 1996 and nurtured a still-young Rubens Barrichello.

Then he would have been annoyed that he walked away from Williams just as the car came good in 1996.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

He had the potential to win more, but I don't think he would have. I think he would have walked away after Imola 1994. Assuming that the only thing that changed was that Senna survived the accident, I think the death of Ratzenberger and his own close call would have prompted him to quit. After all, he wasn't happy with the state of the sport prior to that weekend.

 

[Liquid]

I think he would have walked away after Imola 1994.

To be fair, that's always been a long-standing belief I have had too. Not only his reactions to Barrichello, his protege, suffering a life-threatening crash but Ratzenberger's death and his famous conversation with Sid Watkins before the race did show that he was not fully committed to the sport any more.

Would you be able to speculate on what Senna could have done had he not crashed and remained in F1?

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Would you be able to speculate on what Senna cou

No, because that would be changing too much. The more variables you change, the harder the outcome to predict. For Senna to stay, he would have had to survive the crash, or not have crashed at all; but at the same time, Ratzenberger's accident would need to trigger an immediate safety review.

 

[Simmpa]

I think most drivers reach their peak around age 35, altough he would win more races but more championships I have doubts

 

[TenEightyOne]

There's no reason to think that Williams wouldn't have had a competitive car in 1995 and 1996, even moreso with Ayrton Senna at the whell.

After that the law of diminishing returns suggests that there would have been technical changes for 1997 that extend the variables too far.

 

[calvins48]

He might've left the sport, but the lure of doing what he loved made him take part in that fateful race at Imola in '94, so why not see out the rest of the season?

I think he would've won the '94 title and beaten Schumacher. In my opinion, Ayrton was a better driver than Damon, and Damon only lost the title Schumi by 1 point.

As for '95, Damon finished runner-up to Schumi again, but the margin was much larger. Would we have had a closer title fight if Ayrton was still around? I think Schumi still would've taken '95.

Damon then of course won it in '96. If Ayrton was still driving for Williams, I think he would've beaten Damon and taken '96 as well, then retired from the sport as champion.

So he would've finished driving in F1 around the age of 36/37 (not unheard of) and as a 5-time world champion. This would in turn make Schumi a 6-time champ and Damon wouldn't have won a title at all.

But this is presuming Ayrton didn't retire after '94, which I think is a huge possibly given his age and growing disdain of the way Formula 1 was run. It's also presuming that Ayrton stayed with Williams until the end of his career.

There's so many what ifs and variables in Formula 1 for the drivers that are alive, never mind for the ones that are sadly deceased.

No way to know.

 

[-Fred-]

We can go down a rabbit hole very easily with this and alter history to our own liking...

If Senna doesn't die and stays at Williams for a couple more years before retiring, for example in 1997, that means both Coulthard and Villeneuve never drive for Williams, and in turn DC probably never drives for McLaren and retires off to do some other race series after being frustrated with a bottom tier drive for most of his career, JV doesn't win the championship, BAR probably never exists and thus Brawn doesn't either, meaning Button is not a WC either. Going even further down the rabbit hole, if Gilles Villeneuve doesn't die in '82 and ends up winning the championship for Ferrari and drives a few more years before retiring, taking a management spot at Ferrari when Enzo ultimately dies, chances are JV could have driven for Ferrari instead of Schumacher, who probably would move to McLaren because Mercedes ties, where he ultimately wins a WC or two, so Hakkinen might not be a WC. Or he stays at Benetton which is eventually bought by Renault nonetheless and Alonso never gets the drive and thus is never WC.

See?

 

[TenEightyOne]

As for '95, Damon finished runner-up to Schumi again, but the margin was much larger. Would we have had a closer title fight if Ayrton was still around? I think Schumi still would've taken '95.

That ignores that fact that Senna's death directly affected the new technical regulations in 1995. Taking the 1995/1996 performance of the Williams as-it-actually-was is pointless.

 

[Peter.]

Of course we can't really predict the future, but I can't imagine that Senna of all people at the time couldn't win a title had he stuck around in a team very capable of making a good car.

Ignoring other potential factors such as the pressure they would have had been under to give Senna a good car, regulation changes that may not have happened had he lived, etc., the simple fact that Senna was significantly more talented than Hill cannot be ignored.

 

[NW48]

I voted yes, as I believe he was in his prime during 1993/1994 and showed he could drag a slower car to the top of the podium in '93. How many more would he have won? Who knows, I'd say one, maybe two depending on how Williams developed their car between '94 and '95 given that Senna would have been giving valuable feedback that Hill/Coulthard/Mansell couldn't give.

However, it would not have surprised me if he walked away from F1 by 1996 in order to pursue a potential stint in IndyCar, given his growing frustration with the politics in F1 and that he had tested with Penske and, from all reports, did well.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Some speculation broke out in the unpopular opinions thread and I'm curious to know what the rest of the forum thinks.

I'll C+V my thoughts:

---

In the two years Hill was a challenger to Schumacher, 1994 and 1995, Williams did not have great cars or were uncompetitive against the Benetton team in other ways.

My hypothesis has always been that Senna would have struggled in 1994 and 1995 as Hill and Williams actually did; the 1995 season wasn't even a challenge and 1994 only went down to the last race due to Schumacher's two race ban. Benetton clearly had the superior car. By this point at the end of 1995, aged 35, he would have retired or maybe taken Eddie Jordan on his offer of 50% team ownership and have become a driver/owner for Jordan in 1996 and nurtured a still-young Rubens Barrichello.

Then he would have been annoyed that he walked away from Williams just as the car came good in 1996.

Schumacher's mistakes would be down inexperience and to the pressure Hill imposed. If, and it's a pretty big if, Senna had not had his accident and carried on the pressure Schumacher would be under would multiply massively. Senna would have won that championship.

As for 95. Williams had the fastest car. Benetton had a supremely confident Schumacher, and possibly traction control, but if Senna had beaten him the previous season that supreme confidence would have been missing. So already too much would have changed to make any reasonable prediction.

 

[SVT Cobra GT]

I believe he would have won more titles had he survived. Just how many I am unsure, F1 would look so different today had he survived.