Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

[Danoff]

Chaos and randomness are two things that the human mind is not designed to cope with. Setting aside religion, it’s easy to see why humans look for cause and effect in everything we do. We see one side of the lever arm move up when the other is pushed down. We notice that when we let go of an object it falls to the ground. We notice that when we cook meat or wash dishes we don’t get sick as often. All of these things keep us alive, and it’s exactly that reason that human beings have (and lots of animals in general) have evolved around the cause and effect principle.

But the world contains chaos and randomness – well, in my mind no event is truly random, but some events are so chaotic that they might just as well be considered random. We face chaos every day but have a lot of trouble coping with it.

Example - You wear the same hat while watching baseball on TV three times in a row and all three times your team wins. So the hat must have caused your team to win. There is exactly no reason why you wearing a particular hat while watching the game would cause the team to win – yet, despite the lack of reasoning, many people would believe that their hat was lucky for the rest of their lives.

Example – You go to Vegas and play some cards. You’re doing pretty well, but you notice that when you get a new dealer, your luck starts to fade. The change in dealer must have caused your luck to fade. In fact, looking for a cause for the bad luck, you surmise that it is a conspiracy on the part of the casino to rob you of your winnings. The new dealer must be cheating!!! How likely is it that the casino took notice of your tiny winnings and put in their best dealer to rig the game against you? It’s a statistical fact that their games are rigged so that the house wins if you sit at the table long enough – but no, you noticed that your luck faded when you got a new dealer so that must be it!

Example – You get into a car accident. It was really really bad and you were in the hospital for a long time. The doctor says you’re very lucky to be alive and that 9 times of out 10 people in your condition wouldn’t have made it. What is the cause for this event? It must have been all that hard work you put in being a good person and going to church! God was paying you back for your good deeds! I’m a believer now!!!

Example – Your child dies from a rare disease at a very young age. Could this be random? No! You can’t handle the fact that your child’s death didn’t have some kind of meaning, that it was a statistical anomaly. No! My child died because God wanted it to be that way. My child died because the Lord has a plan!

Example – You meet someone you fall madly in love with and get married. It seems as though you two are perfect for each other. Could it have been simply random that two compatible people found each other after dating dozens and dozens of people? No! It must have some kind of cause, we must have been destined to be together! The universe was pulling us together! Neptune was in phase and our signs corresponded!

My back got better when I took this herbal medicine – the timing couldn’t have randomly corresponded – it couldn’t be due to all that other medicine I took earlier!
My food got better when I put this bead in a corner of the room! Must have been cause and effect.


Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Translation – After this, therefore because of this

It’s a logical fallacy and people make it all the time. Really intelligent people who you wouldn’t expect to make a logical mistake like that. We have been genetically engineered to think this way.

Edit: Not everything fits into the post hoc ergo propter hoc category I put in here, but I actually do want the topic to be more general - looking for causes in randomness .

Agree? Disagree? Why?

 

[KosmikFool]

Do I agree with the ignorance of people? Well yes, because as humans, we can't help it. We know that a lot of what we say or think is not true (ie, the "lucky hat") but we continue to think it anyway, because it gives us something to hold onto. If things were straight-edge and we took everything as it came, our lives wouldn't be nearly as fun. If I just said, "Well, what a coincidence that I wore that hat everytime Team X won. Good for them, they play well." then the game wouldn't be nearly as fun. This applies with everything, basically, because we think, and like to believe that small things that we do have an effect on big things, therefore giving us a role in this world, and in the universe.

Personally, I think it's human nature and I agree with it. Nothing wrong with it at all.

 

[///M-Spec]

I think a really amusing example of this is astrology and the zodiac. Ever hear someone who is really into this stuff try to explain every trait of your personality based on when you were born? Its a hoot. According to astrology, my wife and I have no business being together. I'm a virgo and she's a gemini, therefore, we are doomed.

The Chinese zodiac is even funnier, if you've ever stop to read the place mats at the cheap resturants. My dad is a big believer in that sort of stuff and as intriguing it is to entertain, can't imagine why a remotely reasonable person take it seriously.


M

 

[KosmikFool]

I've grown up on the zodiac, and a lot of the stuff rang pretty true with me. Kind of freaky, but most likely coincidence. But being human, I like to read it anyway, because it gives me something to hold onto.

 

[the_cobbinator]

I read the zodiac stuff in the paper just for fun, but I don't really keep it in the back of my mind. As for having "lucky hats" and stuff like that, I have some belief in that. Being a baseball player from the age of 3, I kind of grew up with superstition; not getting hits because I wasn't using the right helmet and whatnot.

 

[Event]

Ha. this all applies to my favorite quote: "Ignorance is Bliss." We as humans need to be ignorant about what "god" is or isn't and how the Universe works and was created. If you knew your lucky hat wasn't lucky, waht is the fun in that? If we knew the truths behind the Universe, superstitions, and religion, we would all be miserable. If we knew that our lives played a trivial role in whatever a "big plan" is, or even if we knew that the "big plan" did not even exist, there would be no point in living, dyning or being. Humans would not be where we are today if it wasn't for ignorance.

 

[Famine]

Quidquid latine dictum sit altum viditur.

 

[Arwin]

I think it all boils down to that there's not only power in control, but there is also power in the belief in control.

However, I prefer not to fool myself too much and whenever people give control out of their own hands they can become dangerous, because they don't think for themselves. I say know why you want to or don't want to walk under a ladder, or you'll walk round one needlessly and get hit by a car.

 

[Danoff]

Quidquid latine dictum sit altum viditur.

That is so true, and exactly why I picked this thread title.

Humans would not be where we are today if it wasn't for ignorance.

Of course the real reason we are where we are is science... which would be the opposite of ignorance.

or even if we knew that the "big plan" did not even exist, there would be no point in living, dyning or being

I don't believe in a "big plan" but I find plenty of purpose in living.

 

[milefile]

Of course the real reason we are where we are is science... which would be the opposite of ignorance.

Is the glass half full or half empty? We would not even want or need science unless our ignorance, which is just antoher way of saying our need to know, didn't push us to discover and create. This is not ot say that we can't have confidence in what we do know, but it is to say that we must, ironically, have confidence in what we do not know, and the openness to discover that we are wrong about something, that some knowledge is error, therefore some knowledge is merely disguised ignorance.

The irony of it all is often missed and that's where all the fun is.

 

[Duke]

That's the angle Creationists always take, not to stir up an old argument or anything. Many of them always say "But evolution is just a theory, and there are holes in it, and it could easily be wrong, so it must all be wrong."

What many people don't understand is that science is not invalidated by the discovery of inaccuracy or error - in fact, it is validated by the continual refinement of understanding. If scientists didn't know their understanding was imperfect, they wouldn't bother working so hard to perfect it.

 

[Danoff]

When I said ignorance I meant the kind of false belief in cause and effect I was talking about above.

Take it as me saying that science is the opposite of astrology or religion.

 

[milefile]

It's not the angle creationists take because I never said anything is invalidated. I am only asserting that ignorance is useful and necessary.

 

[Danoff]

I am only asserting that ignorance is useful and necessary.

But if we did not have ignorance it would no longer be useful - so effectively ignorance is not actually useful, it simply exists. Were it to cease to exist that would be fine - but since it does, we strive to eliminate it.

I don't believe you can argue that ignorance is really necessary. Perhaps it cannot be eliminated, but that's not the same thing as necessary.

 

[milefile]

Without it there would be no drive to overcome it. With new knowledge comes new questions, ones we were ignorant of previously. New questions point to new answers.

You suggest a world of absolute knowledge, no? I doubt this can be. I wonder why anyone would want it to be.

 

[Duke]

The irony of it all is often missed and that's where all the fun is.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

[Danoff]

You suggest a world of absolute knowledge, no?

Perhaps it cannot be eliminated, but that's not the same thing as necessary.

Without it there would be no drive to overcome it

Without it there would be no need to overcome it. It's a self-fullfilling argument.

 

[milefile]

It's a self-fullfilling argument.

All the best ones are

 

[Danoff]

So I don't understand why you say we need ignorance.

Without it, we're fine. With it, we're set too.

Unless you're just saying you don't think we can get rid of it....

 

[milefile]

We're not fine without it. That's like saying a boat is fine without water. I guess it's true in a strictly technical sense, but the boat would be useless.

 

[Danoff]

I guess it's true in a strictly technical sense, but the boat would be useless.

So you're saying that if we knew everything we'd be useless - that our purpose is to find stuff out?

What exactly would the problem be if we new everything? Boredom?

 

[milefile]

So you're saying that if we knew everything we'd be useless - that our purpose is to find stuff out?

What exactly would the problem be if we new everything? Boredom?

At least. I can't really imagine it. Another question would be, what would there be for us to do at all?

 

[Event]

So you're saying that if we knew everything we'd be useless - that our purpose is to find stuff out?

What exactly would the problem be if we new everything? Boredom?

If we knew everything, There would be no point to living. We would be miserable. We need to be ignorant to be happy.

 

[milefile]

So you're saying that if we knew everything we'd be useless - that our purpose is to find stuff out?

Not only that, but to create.... not produce, which is a by-product of creation. It would be a rote world of production for consumption.

 

[Der Alta]

Just to add to the first post, is an old story that I happen to love.

Frogs, with out legs, can't hear
Conduct this experiment.

Set a frog on a table, clap behind it. Frog Jumps.

Cut off frogs legs, Clap behind it. Frog doesn't move.

Therefore, Frogs with out legs can't hear.

It is often tough to convince people that their stance is wrong. I've gone through rounds of discussion with people, and it always seems to degenerate into raised voices. Heated emotions and angry words.

Sometimes it's not the right observation that we need, but the observation we feel is right. I work in a job field where everybody higher than you thinks they have the right way, the people below you are asking for the right answer, and I can't give it, because I don't even know. It turns a daily grind into a headache and a reason to numb the senses with a bit of Jack.

I think that if we had all the answers we'd be bored. We'd not know what to do next and the human being needs input (mental or physical) to want to function. I drag my tired butt out of bead every morning, simply because I have something to do that day.

On my days off, I have things planned. If I knew the absolute answer, I'd not have much reason for getting up. I wouldn't call it ignorant, but rather a reason to question.

What feels better than learning something?

That is perhaps my biggest quest in life. Learn something new every day. My morning greeting to co-workers is "So what's new and exciting?" Very rarely does anything have something. Usual answer "Nothing." Next response from me "SO you went home, stared at the wall and did nothing last night?" They usually respond with something that they did the night before.

Ask DOug. He's got more money than he knows what to do with. Why does he get up every day? Surely it's to make sure his big change in a few months has every thing it needs. Make sure his wife is happy, put a gallon of milk in the fridge.

That's what we all need. Something to make us live through the next day. SOme use religion, some use investigation, some use thought. But each of you gets up every morning with a small idea of what you'd like to have happen that day.

And no, Jeff Foxworthy quotes are not allowed.

AO

 

[ledhed]

I've lernd an importent leson the stupider you be the hapir you ar ...ar ar ar ..

 

[the_cobbinator]

Ask DOug. He's got more money than he knows what to do with. Why does he get up every day? Surely it's to make sure his big change in a few months has every thing it needs. Make sure his wife is happy, put a gallon of milk in the fridge.

That's what we all need. Something to make us live through the next day. SOme use religion, some use investigation, some use thought. But each of you gets up every morning with a small idea of what you'd like to have happen that day.

That's a very good point. 👍

 

[HareTurtle]

Quick, somebody take a pic, before the big happy family starts slingin' mud again.

Good thread danoff, however much it pains me to say so. Though I would quibble slightly with your assertion that the human mind is poorly equipped to deal with chaos or disorder. Collectively, our short-lived soggy little lumps of grey matter have puzzled out many of the mysteries of mathematics, physics, and biology, invented language, machines and electronics, travelled to the moon and back, and created music and arts that speak eloquently to the human condition. So we make a few mistakes along the way. The mechanism is not perfect, but it is effective. Still, the logical fallacy you present is all too common, though the more modern formulation is "correlation is not causation".

 

[Danoff]

correlation is not causation

That's a good catch phrase, I'll have to remember that. I'll have to look up the exact latin translation of that too.

The mechanism is not perfect, but it is effective

Agreed. The picture is not as bleak as I paint it. Still with all of the intellectual resources we have, I'm surprised more people don't manage to act rationaly about chaos.

I saw a bumper sticker yesterday that describes the sentiment that caused me to start this thread. It said:

"Losing faith in humanity one person at a time."

 

[Danoff]

Another question would be, what would there be for us to do at all?

Certainly we'd still need infrastructure. Let's not forget about the ultimate form of expression - Art - that can be a goal in and of itself.

If we knew everything, There would be no point to living. We would be miserable. We need to be ignorant to be happy.

You say that as though the best possible state of man is ignorance. We are happy in the pursuit of perfection, meaning the goal of elimination of ignorance. I honestly can't say what would happen if we acheived that kind of perfection and i don't think you can either.

I started a thread a while back called "What's Important About Living?". Surprisingly to me, most people didn't say learning or building, or even making life better for the next generation. They said the most important thing was to screw off. I happen to disagree with that, but I'm in the minority. So most of the people on this board would heartily disagree with your "no point in living" statement above. I happen to diagree as well, but only because there are more ways to create than by pursuing knowledge.



And why does this question of whether mankind would be happy knowing everything come up? Because the statement was posed that our ignorance is what we enjoy in life. Our ignorance of chaos is part of what makes life worth living. If that were true than we should strive to achieve absolutely nothing. I, for one, am glad that some people do not like ignorance and invented nice things like the lightbulb and the dishwasher.