The 2006 NFL Draft

[JohnBM01]

For the second(?) straight year, I'm hosting this thread about this year's NFL Draft. The big draft may be next week, but it's never too late to preview. Here are some notes I've heard from Sportscenter:

* Merril Hodge: Vince Young (QB, Texas) and Matt Leinart (QB, USoCal) shouldn't be first-overall picks. Whomever picks up either two are
* Kellen Clemens (QB

Before I continue, here's a little college news. California prepratory QB Jeff ??? will verbally commit to Notre Dame. He'll be the first California prep QB since John Elway to enter the collegiate ranks. He has about 7,000+ passing yards, which is 5,000+ more than Elway. Where he's MUCH better than Elway was that he has about 88 touchdown passes, which trumps Elway's (about) 45 TD passes. He can be a future pro and a future Pro Bowler if he keeps up the good work and does well in college.

Let's talk NFL Draft 2006.

 

[Kylehnat]

This is the only time of the year when Mel Kiper is employed.

 

[Max Powers]

Watching the NFL draft is worse than watching paint dry. I'll just check online periodically.

 

[JohnBM01]

Do any of you have an idea as to where you see some of this year's draft picks will end up? Think of people like:

Vince Young (QB, Texas)
Matt Leinart (QB, USoCal)
Lendale White (RB(?), USoCal)
Reggie Bush (RB(?), USoCal)

I'm curious as to who would take DeAngelo Williams (RB, Memphis). He is a solid gamebreaker who could prove valuable for any team he plays for. I see many of these names having at least one Pro Bowl selection made, granted they don't get injured for a long time. You can begin to think about who will go...

A.) first overall
B.) first round pick
C.) which team can benefit the most from the latest batch of college talent
D.) whatever you want regarding this season's draft

Who do you think the Houston Texans will select?

 

[Max Powers]

I hope Lendale White slips enough in the draft that the Steelers can get him. Despite the recent critisicm, I think his years at USC speak for themselves, he's an excellent power runner.

 

[Danoff]

I'd like for Vince to get drafted ahead of Leinart, just so Leinart comes in second place again.

 

[JohnBM01]

ESPNU had a show called "Who's Number One?" when the episode was about the Top NFL Draft Busts.

From last to first (top ten only), here are the biggest NFL Draft busts according to this show and this episode:

10 - Rick Mirer (QB, Notre Dame; to Seattle Seahawks in 1993 Draft)
09 - Heath Shuler (QB, Tennessee; to Washington Redskins in 1994 Draft)
08 - Ki-Jana Carter (RB, Pennsylvania State; Cincinatti Bengals in 1995 Draft)
07 - Andre Ware (QB, Houston; to Detroit Lions in 1990 Draft)
06 - Tim Couch (QB, Kentucky; to Clevland Browns in 1999 Draft)
05 - Lawrence Phillips (RB(?), Nebraska; to St. Louis Rams in 1996 Draft)
04 - Brian Bosworth (LB, Oklahoma; to Seattle Seahawks in 1988 Draft)
03 - Todd Marinovich (QB, Southern California; to Oakland Raiders in 19?? Draft)
02 - Tony Mandarich (OL, Michigan State; to Green Bay Packers in 1989 Draft)
01 - Ryan Leaf (QB, Washington State; to San Diego Chargers in 1998 Draft)

And correct me if I'm wrong about any of my data. Much like Florida State is notorious for horrible field goal kickers, they seem to note that Penn State is notorious for horrible running backs when drafted in the NFL.

Now my question... what player in this year's draft COULD be a bust at the next level? Why do you think so?

 

[Danoff]

Ok, I'll start at the top with Reggie Bush. The Texas defense (which was the most NFL-like he played all year) was able to essentially nullify his speed. NFL defenses are faster than college and so he'll have to rely more on making guys miss than speed. I think it could be a rude awakening for Bush in the NFL.

Next up, Matt Leinart. The guy throws soft. That gives defenders a chance to get to the ball and break up the play. If he isn't able to start rifling the ball in there for a 7-10 yard pass, he's not going to be able to make it. He's survived in college largely by heaving 40 yard balls and hoping his receiver would come up with it. For the most part, that's not where the game is played in the NFL.

Ok, ticking off the big names. Vince Young. Aside from throwing motion issues which could end up getting balls batted down at the line, Vince is a speed man, and NFL defenses are fast. He was the most accurate passer in all of college football last year, but that's largely due to what he was able to do to defenses with his legs. If NFL defenses can take away his legs, he may not be able to find open targets, the guy is not a pocket passer. Plus, he has ball protection issues.

If those three guys could end up busts in the NFL, anyone could.

As an aside, I think one guy who's really well suited to the NFL is Lendale White. I can't believe how far he's fallen down the draft considering how enormously useful he'll be. Given the running and throwing talent at USC, I still can't believe my boys at Texas managed to beat them. To have the ultra talented fast running back in Reggie, and then the big smashmouth running back in Lendale, plus Leinart all ripping you up... man what a team. Too bad their defense wasn't as good as ours.

 

[JFM92_GTRacer]

Cardinals! DO NOT PICK CUTLER!!!

 

[JohnBM01]

---LATE BREAKING NEWS---

The Texans sign Defensive End - Mario Williams. That will be the #1 Overall pick. So they make a smart call in my view.

The Texans need an offensive line to protect David Carr. People say that David Carr is trying to be Michael Vick or whatever. Hell. He's fine as is. He is a great short passer and will occasionally cash in deep balls. I think Carr can only get better even though he's been the quarterback for the long existance of the Texans. To me, Carr needs offensive linemen because you can't have your quarterback keep getting sacked and rattled. Among all things- PROTECT DAVID CARR!!! I would probably take a few offensive linemen in the Second Round. Texans have the offensive power, but their defense is very suspect. They didn't play as well last season on defense giving up a number of different intereceptions and blown coverages.

Only other thing I'd want to see the Texans do- win in overtime. Every time they've been in Overtime, be it the Patriots, the Rams, or even the 49ers, they lose in Overtime. You have to start winning those Overtime games if you want to make an impact.

"Cardinals! DO NOT PICK CUTLER!" Well, the ESPN boys say that Jeff Cutler is probably the most overrated player in this year's draft. Who would want him? And let's hope he doesn't become the next Ryan Leaf (like from what I've seen from "Who's Number One?" on the Top NFL Draft Busts). Keep in mind, you are free to discuss NFL Draft selections in this thread. Use this thread. It's YOUR thread on the NFL Draft. Talk about good decisions and bad decisions made by the 32 NFL teams.

Oh, and do you think a repeat of last year's draft could happen when no one expected Maurice Clarett to be drafted by the Denver Broncos?

 

[Max Powers]

They should have traded their #1 spot for several more draft picks if they weren't going to get Bush. Mario Williams is pretty good, but I think the Texans will be regretting this one.

I'm still hoping the Steelers can get Lendale White, he seemed to really slip in the draft, but I think somebody will nab him up before the last pick, unfortunetely. I think White could make an immediate impact in the NFL.

Edit: Guess it's a no go for Lendale White, the Steelers traded picks with the Giants to get Santonio Holmes at WR, who is regarded as the top prospect at the position, he should fill in for Randle El nicely. I am kind of disappointed that they didn't get White, but I'm glad they got Holmes and not Sinorce Moss, who I thought was kind of overrated. They can get a power back in one of the later rounds, and hopefully Staley, Parker, and Haynes can stay healthy for next season.

 

[JohnBM01]

Some of the draft notes:

* Texans select Mario Williams (DE, North Carolina State).
* New Orleans Saints select Reggie Bush (RB, Southern California).
* Tennessee Titans select Vince Young (QB, Texas).
* Arizona Cardinals select Matt Leinart (QB, Southern California).

Now let me sound off on the Texans' selection of Mario Willams over Reggie Bush.


ESPN Commentator Michael Irvin (correct spelling and correct name?) was infuriated that the Texans didn't select Bush. To me, I think Houston made a good call because their defense was completely suspect. They need a surge defensively. Their offense is good (only as long as they can protect David Carr), their Special Teams is very good, but their defense has been more of a let down since the franchise was founded. I kind of wished the Texans could draft a good Offensive Lineman to help the offense out, but we'll take a Defensive End. It SURELY wasn't a popular pick. I probably don't think the Texans cared. Reggie Bush is a pure offensive talent, and even with the firepower he provides, if there's no offensive production outside of David Carr's passing or Andre Johnson's WR abilities, then why bother? Just adding Reggie Bush would increase offensive production and make their defense even more suspect. I thought this was a good call by the Texans. They say it's a football decision. The Texans are a great up-and-coming team, just that it was unfortunate that they had their horrible 2-14 season. Their best record is 7-9 (2004 season).

Simply put, the Texans need defense and some offensive line help in my view. It was the right decision for a team who is far from being on anyone's radar. Amid all the talk of Terrell Owens, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, the Dallas Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles, and all them, we're just this humble little team in Houston looking to make some noise. I don't think the Texans need star power until they actually become a star power team. I think about it much like when the Houston Rockets got Yao Ming from China back in 2002, then picked up Tracy McGrady a few years later. Thing is, the Rockets are a star power team, even if not in the same mould as Detroit, Miami, or even Dallas and San Antonio. I hope the Texans can use M. Williams as best as possible to get them to where they need to be.

I'll offer comments on Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Reggie Bush in a future post.

 

[Max Powers]

Here's some good info on Santonio Holmes, the Steelers first round draft pick that I got from the espn.com boards if anybody is interested. He seems to have a tremendous upside and should be able to start playing pretty quickly.

(WR) Santonio Holmes - OHIO STATEStrengths: Is thick and well-built for his shorter frame. Has long arms, thick legs and strong lower body. His possesses very good speed on film. Will consistently get over the top of DB's in man-coverage and shows the initial burst to get to top speed quickly. He is fluid and shows smooth hips. He does not need to gear down to get in and out of his breaks. His instincts and coverage recognition skills are impressive. He shows the consistent ability to find soft spots in zone coverage. Has an uncanny knack for separating from man-coverage. Is subtle with double moves. Is quick and savvy enough to avoid the press at the LOS. Outside of occasional concentration lapse, he possesses very good hands. His hands are soft and he shows the consistent ability to ***** on the run. Makes plays in traffic and is not afraid to go over the middle. Has good leaping ability and body control to keep his feet in along the sideline. Does a great job of closing on the deep ball and catching over his shoulder/head. Shows some "wiggle" after the catch. Will consistently make the first defender miss in space and has the explosive upfield burst to take the short catch for a long gain. Lacks ideal size but is willing as a blocker and shows better strength than his frame would indicate. Has been durable and versatile. Never missed a game in college due to an injury. Has great experience despite only three seasons played at collegiate level and he had consistent production throughout his career. He has some versatility as a receiver that has played both the flanker and split end positions, while also contributing as a punt and kickoff return specialist. He flashes upside as a return specialist in the NFL, particularly as a PR.

Weaknesses: Lacks ideal size, including below average height and just decent bulk. He is thick for his frame but still needs to add bulk in order to hold up at the next level. He will not be a huge matchup threat in the red zone and he will struggle to make as many plays in traffic. He has had some lapses in focus. Will occasionally look to get upfield first before securing the ball. He has had some fumbling issues in the past. He can get frustrated at times and will occasionally get taken out of his game mentally by bigger, more physical cover corners.

Overall: Holmes redshirted in 2002. He started four of the 12 games he played in 2003, finishing with 32 catches for 549 yards (17.2 ypc) and seven touchdowns. As a sophomore in 2004, Holmes earned second-team All-Bit Ten honors with a team-high 55 catches for 769 yards (14.4 ypc) and seven touchdowns, while also averaging 10.7 yards per punt return and 23.2 yards per kickoff return. As a junior in 2005, Holmes earned first-team All-Big Ten honors with a team-high 53 catches for 977 yards (18.4 ypc) and 11 touchdowns, while also averaging 12.8 yards per punt return and 21.7 yards per kickoff return Holmes has two children (both sons). Holmes shares a lot of similarities with former Wisconsin standout Lee Evans (first round pick of the Bills in 2004), including just decent size, explosive speed and outstanding hand-eye coordination. Holmes did not get nearly the opportunities in Ohio State's conservative offense that some other elite receivers get in more pass-friendly systems, but his production is still impressive in terms of the ratios for yards-per-catch and touchdowns-per-catch. Holmes lacks ideal size but he is explosive and consistent enough to eventually develop into a No. 1 starting WR in the NFL. In the meantime, Holmes can compete for touches in the return game and should be able to contribute right away as a No. 2 or slot-No. 3 WR. Holmes should be the first wide receiver selected in the 2006 draft, likely in the middle portion of the first round.

 

[Danoff]

I'm still hoping the Steelers can get Lendale White, he seemed to really slip in the draft, but I think somebody will nab him up before the last pick, unfortunetely. I think White could make an immediate impact in the NFL.

They could have, and they passed him up. I was shocked at how far he fell.

I'd like for Vince to get drafted ahead of Leinart, just so Leinart comes in second place again.

Little did I know that both Leinart and Bush would manage to come in second.

I'm looking forward to seeing a lot of these guys play. I'm excited for the Titans who now have both Young and White, which should really help them out on offense. I'm excited for the Saints who now have Brees and Bush, that should help them on offense as well. I'm also pumped about the Cards having Leinart and James. Too bad Cutler, Leinart, and Young won't be playing next season eh?

And man! The broncos jumping in there with Cutler! Boom!! Very nice move.

 

[JohnBM01]

What are your winners and losers in the NFL Draft? Who drafted well? Who drafted poorly? What draft picks do you think could have been to other teams?

Let's evaluate the draft.

 

[fasj6418]

to me my titans were the biggest winners of this draft. they got the best player of the draft in vince young, a player that can be the next mcnair for 10 years, and then when i check the second round...

i just couldn´t believe they somehow manage to get white...

woo-hoo

also, they didn´t trade mcnair for a miserable 4th pick with baltimore... say what you want, but USUALLY a fourth rounder is just an NFL europe type of player. they can get more value for air mcnair...

also the broncos did very well with cutler and stealing javon walker from the packers... talk about a lopsided trade... they must be thinking cap... you don´t trade a pro bowler-1000yds/100catch guy for a unknow late draft prospect...

didn´t really paid attention to the losers, but to me those two teams are clearly the winners...

 

[Danoff]

Losers:

Texans for passing on Bush
Steelers for passing on White

Winners:

Titans (Young and white)
Broncos (Cutler)
Cardinals (Leinart on the cheap)

 

[Max Powers]

Losers:
Buffalo - Horrible first round choice, Donte Whitner could have fallen all the way to the 2nd round, but they picked him 8th overall.

Houston - Made some good picks, but they're going to be kicking themselves for passing on Reggie. He could very well be the next Barry Sanders. He was the Heisman winner and unamiously projected #1 pick for a reason.

Oakland - Michael Huff is good, but this is a team that really, really needs a Quarterback, shame on them for skipping Leinart and Cutler.

Winners:
Tennessee - Same as danoff and fasj said, Vince Young and Lendale White are both spectacular players, and White was an absolute steal falling to the 2nd round.

Arizona - Leinart will do a good job replacing that has-been Kurt Warner. Warner's *****y wife will be begging for a trade once Leinart takes over the reigns in the middle of the season.



Of course, this is all speculative, it's so hard to judge how a college player will fare in the NFL. I just hope for Houston's sake that Mario Williams doesn't turn into another Courtney Brown.

 

[Danoff]

JFM92,

What happened to your Rams?? How could they let Cutler slip away? I mean you guys need a new QB right?

 

[Kylehnat]

No. Marc Bulger is the second-coming

 

[Max Powers]

Bulger would be a pretty good QB if he could stay healthy.