This is a learning experience.

[paskowitz]

http://www.autoblog.com/2010/01/14/gran-turismo-5-demo-hits-1m-downloads-in-three-weeks-but-game-d/

I start off with this article. As the GT hardcore we can be quick to dismiss stories like this as nothing more than cannon fodder but today, by taking a step back I realized just how big something like this is. Please do not be quick to dismiss me and hear me out.

The truth is that we are a very small, very special group. If I were to take a wild guess I would liberally say we make up about 20% (at best) of the people who buy GT games. Thats not all that much. (Slippery slope noted ---> )When I see articles like the one posted above, and then when I see another and another and another and then I think of all the people that read and agree with these article it makes me wonder how much of a negative affect the long production (I actually mean publicity time... more on this latter) has had on GT's public perception.

I think a distinction needs to be made. PD has clearly given GT5 release windows/time frames...

(2007 (GTHD/GT5 talks)
2008(TGS time frame slide show thing)
2009(TGS poster that said 09 followed by a press release that said 2010)
2010 (well you get the idea)

...and talked about the games release date(s) numerous times. Not once have they said GT5 will come out on X day. But lets be honest 2007,8,9,10 are technically dates and when those "dates" pass people wonder (ie get angry about) what PD was talking about. This is a common problem within Sony (I was in the Home Beta from the very very start and it was a problem to say the least), they want to show the public this great idea or new product to drive hype or sales or whatever... but in the end the product/idea is not ready and a bad taste is left in people's mouths. IMO GTHD should NEVER have been shown (I am sure the boffins at SCE wanted it though).

Think to yourself if (yeah I know IF) GTHD was never shown, GT5 was unveiled at TGS 08, with GT5p released shortly afterwords and a release date was NEVER mentioned in any way until a month or two before they KNEW and PLANNED that game to come out, would any of this (speculation, complaining, blog posts etc) have happened? Probably not. Would it be better for the consumer... I would hope so.

What is the down side of this? Sony looses a couple of launch sales of the PS3 from hardcore GT fans (again a very small group). Even at that, all they would have to do is say there will be a next gen GT game.

Not for my sake so much (I could wait 10 years) but for everyone else, I hope PD, Sony, and in some respects we have learned their/our lesson.

PS: I hope this post does not come across as negative because it is not intended that way.👍

 

[eSZee]

haven't read it all but, if this game only sells 10M copies, 20% of that would be 2m users. There are only ~1500 active users on GTP and only 135k total. All of the GTP user make up less than 1.5% of the GT consumer base. Just wanted to point that out to you.

 

[Mubble]

Sorry dude, but I don't get what you're trying to say /

Who are you refering to when you say '20%' - GTplanet members or hardcore GT fans around the world?

 

[paskowitz]

Sorry dude, but I don't get what you're trying to say /

Who are you refering to when you say '20%' - GTplanet members or hardcore GT fans around the world?

Hardcore fans worldwide.

What I am saying...
-Casual people are getting annoyed enough to loose interest in GT5 (yeah I know I have not met everyone so its more of a feeling)
-GT5 HAS had release dates despite what some people may think
-PD/SCE shoulda/coulda handled the publicity of GT5 MUCH better
-And that I hope they have learned something from all this and handle their future releases with this in mind

That is all...
-

 

[Northstar]

Hardcore fans worldwide.

They still would only make up maybe 3% of total sales.

 

[RyanWreck]

Are you saying that members of this forum only make up 20% of the customers? Or are you saying that the "hardcore fans" make up that 20%? I would possibly agree with the former (although that number still seems a bit high), but not the latter.

 

[[UK] ANDYW]

I'm sure PD & Sony will learn from this release, but whether it would affect the decision of a Sony financial strategy is another question altogether..

Like Jordan stated in his news post, well behind the PR machine and game developers is an army of hungry shareholders and dull men in grey suits with calculators who could care less about the end customer, other than they know a brand name such as Gran Turismo will always sell BIG, almost no matter how bad the PR is handled.

It's the sad world of enormous corporate businesses...

Although Forza2 didnt seem to punish the consumer in the same way, but arguably GT5 is in a different league, with much higher expectations.

 

[DK]

I'm not that concerned with GT5's release date. Just keep it in 2010 and I'll be happy. I'm not concerned because I have lots of things to keep me occupied, from GT4 to the Junior Certificate exams.

 

[eSZee]

yeah, same here. I didn't even think of GT5 til less than 2 weeks ago. School starts back up on tuesday so that will keep me busy til june anyway.

 

[pay2021]

I dont get the point, but, anyway, i repeat 1000 times, its too much time for develop a d*** ******* game!!!

Anyway, i have to entertain me, new PC, rfactor, gtr evo, rbr, F3, wheel. (oh! and the work!!!)

 

[craste]

Is it just me?

I got bored by the second paragraph of that post.

 

[Perkel]

hmm looking at 4mln + gt5 prologue sales... i don't agree with you.

 

[shadynader]

I dont get the point, but, anyway, i repeat 1000 times, its too much time for develop a d*** ******* game!!!

Anyway, i have to entertain me, new PC, rfactor, gtr evo, rbr, F3, wheel. (oh! and the work!!!)

It took 5 years to make the original game and engine which was the base for the first 4 console games. It has taken 5 years for the game and engine which will most likely be the base of the next 4. Whilst frustrating having to wait for this, as you pointed out, we do have others to play for now and i believe it is for the better in the long run.

 

[Boffin]

Is it just me?

I got bored by the second paragraph of that post.

Wow. Very constructive and helpful post there, Craste. Everyone on GTP should be like this. 👍



As for the topic at hand, I don't think PD or Sony did much wrong with releasing GTHD. Afterall - hype is publicity, whether it be good or bad. Sure - some people are winging, but why would they be winging if they wouldn't buy it int he first place? The people who don't care about GT5 enough to wait 5 years for it to be released (which I still won't understand - live your life, come back in 5 years - why make the point on not buying it because its late?) are probably going to be the punters making people's life a misery online. You may come back at me and say private rooms - but tell me this - on GTA4, when none of your friends are on, do you go to the public games and have a ball? I do.

 

[pay2021]

It took 5 years to make the original game and engine which was the base for the first 4 console games. It has taken 5 years for the game and engine which will most likely be the base of the next 4. Whilst frustrating having to wait for this, as you pointed out, we do have others to play for now and i believe it is for the better in the long run.

I understand that such a big game take that time, but, 2 things:

1 - IMO PD has the money to minimize that time.
2 - In what point the game as converted in a obsession? (for KY/SONY)

 

[ASH32]

No craste, not at all, although the same could be said about a lot of the posts in this thread and in the GT5 forum in general. The problem here to me, is the OP has basically written all that, when he could have made the same point with one or two lines. All the rest is just not needed and to me this thread cannot possibly go anywhere, or cover something that hasn't already been discussed before.

 

[shadynader]

I understand that such a big game take that time, but, 2 things:

1 - IMO PD has the money to minimize that time.
2 - In what point the game as converted in a obsession? (for KY/SONY)

1. You can only have a certain amount of coders working together before it becomes confusing. Believe me when i say this, the bigger the progrmming team the more time you end up spending in the meeting room than you do actually coding. Now you can have as many 3d artists, sound engineers and graphic artists as you like but that does not have anything to do with creating the actual engine for their work to be included. So you could throw more money at this problem, but you'll only end up with more content.

2. Around about 1993 i'd guess

 

[pay2021]

1. You can only have a certain amount of coders working together before it becomes confusing. Believe me when i say this, the bigger the progrmming team the more time you end up spending in the meeting room than you do actually coding. Now you can have as many 3d artists, sound engineers and graphic artists as you like but that does not have anything to do with creating the actual engine for their work to be included. So you could throw more money at this problem, but you'll only end up with more content.

2. Around about 1993 i'd guess

In the 3D area work similar(im a 3D animator) you cant put too many modelers for a single model, its more like a chain, but you can optimize puting a paralel chain, for the 3D part.
But i understand, more money not mind less time, but a little less yes.

Sorry my english.

 

[P3nT4gR4m]

Wow. Very constructive and helpful post there, Craste. Everyone on GTP should be like this. 👍



As for the topic at hand, I don't think PD or Sony did much wrong with releasing GTHD. Afterall - hype is publicity, whether it be good or bad. Sure - some people are winging, but why would they be winging if they wouldn't buy it int he first place? The people who don't care about GT5 enough to wait 5 years for it to be released (which I still won't understand - live your life, come back in 5 years - why make the point on not buying it because its late?) are probably going to be the punters making people's life a misery online. You may come back at me and say private rooms - but tell me this - on GTA4, when none of your friends are on, do you go to the public games and have a ball? I do.

Seriously good point. When we get private matches you'll have the best of both worlds - serious racing for the serious gamers and public puntfests when you just want to relieve some stress

 

[craste]

Sorry for my negative post.

I've read the post again and to conclude PD have not got a clue about PR - have they even got a PR department?

Next time GT6 needs to be shown to the public only 6 months away from release - that way it will be a success.

Or take a leaf out of Apples PR - nothing , nothing, then announced - then for sale the day after - simplez but it works.

 

[P3nT4gR4m]

I think the truth of the matter is that hype or lack of hype, over such a protractedly long period of time won't make a difference one way or another. I'm pretty sure the only thing that will have much of an impact on sales is how they hype it when it is released.

 

[Worthy1066]

the GT series of games has and always will have a dedicated following for 1 reason only ,and thats because they make games that are ahead of any genre of game at the time of release .
It is understandable that certain gamers do feel hard done by due to lack of info , delays , non inclusive features etc ,but that's only due to the fact that they are so passionate about the game.These people (of which I am one ) find themselves frustrated at this moment in time because so much media is revolving around GT at the moment that any hic up or tangent seems more focused upon . I will buy this game no matter what ,and all the other people except a very few will do the same .Anger , frustration resentment are all temporary feelings..........passion isnt .
Take a step back and just enjoy what we are been given , the wait is nearly over , and when it is you will look back on all this and say was it worth getting wind up .

 

[TBR 427]

Think of it this way.

GT5 is reportedly costing Sony $60m to create.

Considering previous sales numbers for GT games (yes, the other ones were delayed too), we can expect them to sell somewhere between 5m and 10m units.
Price the games at $10USD, and GT5 will break even. Yes, $10. Ten measly bucks. I can't even buy a movie on blu-ray for that price.

Price the game at $60USD, and it would take a 75% drop in sales (or more) for Sony to lose money.

Price the game at $60USD and it sells as well as expected (more than 5m, conservative estimate), and sony makes a quarter of a billion dollars.

Let me say that again, a quarter of a billion dollars.

In one game.

But they get even more for their $60m invested. Way more.

Now, say it only manages to sell at the lowest estimate, 5 million units shipped, statisticaly it's a huge let-down. Sonly still makes $250million as opposed to $260 or $270m (or even $300m).

They have successfully trolled the opposition into submission.

Forza 3 just went past 1 million, right? Now that it's a couple of months old, the sales boom is going down, and it looks like MS is going to have to bundle it to get their #1 racer to keep moving out the shop doors.

Imagine if T10 hadn't launched it into the imminent threat of the biggest racing game ever? Imagine if they weren't about to thrust their game against incoming competition with more than twice the car list, almost twice the tracks, twice the graphical detail and a fan base five times as big.
Would the sales be stronger? Of course. Maybe not too much higher, but there'd be a significant boost. A very significant boost.

At $60 a pop, say it cost Forza sales 50% of what they could have been if GT didn't exist.

That's $60m of potential revenue for MS wiped clean out of existence purely by existing.

Every dollar Sony puts into this game costs MS a dollar.


Sure, some people are getting annoyed (though if you're annoyed, you're interested enough about it and almost certainly are going to buy it when it comes out, so no matter), but from a business standpoint, SONY, once again, have the market curled around their little finger.

Then next-gen it gets even better for them (or worse for everyone else). games are going to need blu-ray. Not want it, but actually need it. FFXIII for instance, if shipped right now for the XBOX as it is for the PS3 version, would come in a 5-disc set, and probably a 30GB install. And when you consider that they took enough out of the previously PS3-only version to "fill an entire new game", you see how much content goes into a game.

Add to that blu-ray's extreemely rapid expansion (take-up rates are roughly 800% what the DVD could manage), and very, very soon DVD's are going to be like floppy discs. Again, this leaves companies, such as MS in a whole world of pain.


tl;dr don't worry folks, Sony knows what they're doing. You'll get your GT5 soon enough, once they have got tired of pre-emptively trolling MS.

 

[Scoop2004]

I believe this is why SCEE haven't really hyped up GT5. The EU version may be due for release sooner than we think but i think SCEE won't tell us until about 8-12 weeks beforehand so we get excited and get ready to buy it, instead of telling us in sept it is due for release in march, by which time the general public will have forgotten it even existed..If you understand what im getting at...

I bet you your average japanese PS3 owner will have forgotten GT5 WAS due out in march since its been months since it was "announced"

In fact, the announcement was so quiet and so early that it wasnt properly hyped up.

 

[Sureboss]

Sorry for my negative post.

I've read the post again and to conclude PD have not got a clue about PR - have they even got a PR department?

Next time GT6 needs to be shown to the public only 6 months away from release - that way it will be a success.

Or take a leaf out of Apples PR - nothing , nothing, then announced - then for sale the day after - simplez but it works.

I don't think Sony have done anything wrong with their PR programme tbh. They've maintained the number one rule in with PR in the games industry.

 

[paskowitz]

I don't think Sony have done anything wrong with their PR programme tbh. They've maintained the number one rule in with PR in the games industry.

And what has led you to this belief?

 

[TouringDevotee]

Sorry, but people really are just waiting to be told what to think. Oddly enough, this belief is at the core of the PR industries founding.

I think that Sureboss is hinting at the idea of "good bad press." You've heard it in expressions like, "I don't care what they say, just as long as they're talking about me" (assuming of course that you aren't a child molester). Basically, don't let them forget that you exist... "Gran who?"

And of course Behan

"All publicity is good, except an obituary notice."
–Brendan Behan

"I was court-martial in my absence, and sentenced to death in my absence, so I said they could shoot me in my absence."
–Brendan Behan

 

[Dan_]

Humm, I cannot agree with you here mate, all of we active users at GTP are really hardcore fans? I don't think so, many of us are just "petrolheads" which cannot enjoy the cars at real life, so the game works well to them and they will buy it as well and will not be concerned if porsche is not in the game ( unlike almost all of us...).

Conclusion: Hardcore GT fans represents one percent of the fanbase at max, even so, the game will sell millions, and will be the best selling GT of all times, since everyone who bought prologue will buy the full game and everyone who play it once will do it too.