What will be the future of transmissions?

[Turbo]

Just something I was thinking about earlier. As CVT (continuously variable) transmissions and DSG (direct-shift gearbox) are rapidly increasing in popularity, would traditional transmission options (automatic and manual) still remain popular? Or would they die out in favor of these newer variations? There is no right or wrong answer yet, but I'd love to see some debate on this topic.

They each have their pros and cons. CVT's are better in terms of MPG, and allowing for a smoother ride, hence why many economy cars and compact CUVs are switching to them, but are not ideal for sports driving, and tend to be less reliable than traditional automatics. The benefits of a DSG include delivering almost the same quickness and precision as a manual transmission, yet easy to use in traffic, but turbo lag is far more evident in DSGs and they have been proven to give a harsher ride.

Let's get the ball rolling.

 

[FT-1]

While I do think manuals will dwindle in popularity, I don't think they would ever be phased out completely. Most conventional cars will have some form of electric propulsion, at the very least a 48v mild-hybrid system. This setup could work with manuals but the combination would be far more efficient with an automatic gearbox. If anything, manual gearboxes will only significantly more popular for A-segment/City cars with traditional combustion engines, but even those are likely to be replaced by full EVs.

As for the poll, it was between the first and third option but in terms of cars on the road (not just brand new cars), I would still see conventional gearboxes being the most popular option.

 

[mustafur]

DSGs will die off that only performance cars with have it, its inferior to Automatics in regular use it's also more expensive to make.

CVT and Automatics will be the main transmissions going forward with DSG and Manuals for the more rare stuff.

 

[05XR8]

I'd say pick up trucks/Utes will answer this. Once they adopt whatever type of transmission to handle hauling and terrain performance, that'll determine the future of transmissions.

I say this in the vein of their popularity. No doubt motor racing is a precursor to what road cars use. I remember when I first saw the steering wheel gear changes by a rally driver(forgot his name) in the Peugeot 308 back in the 1990s.
I'm thinking more about the market share of light work vehicles and what they'll be like in their evolution.

 

[Tornado]

The ability of the market to create a CVT that can take more power than a midsized sedan has without exploding will dictate if they ever can replace automatics in most uses, but since CVTs aren't operating in a vacuum I'm doubtful. DSGs are on borrowed time as traditional automatics get better and better (just like SMGs before them), and manuals will remain as low cost and low maintenance options for manufacturers.


This will change if/when electric cars become predominant.

 

[alp]

I firmly believe that because most of the western countries have already set agendas to reduce emissions, some banning diesel vehicles from cities, introducing extra taxes, etc., the death of internal combustion engines is inevitable. If an alternative and cheaper fuel is not introduced, electric vehicles will prevail and since electric motors are usually installed inside the wheels, transmissions will be obsolete. This is the future I am seeing as of today.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

I firmly believe that because most of the western countries have already set agendas to reduce emissions, some banning diesel vehicles from cities, introducing extra taxes, etc., the death of internal combustion engines is inevitable. If an alternative and cheaper fuel is not introduced, electric vehicles will prevail and since electric motors are usually installed inside the wheels, transmissions will be obsolete. This is the future I am seeing as of today.

It's not going to happen it may die off in automobiles but other platforms will still use them. As far as transmissions go, they probably have a more narrow outlook than the actual engines. And many would argue transmissions are already dying due to CV being adopted so heavily.