GTPNewsWire
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This is the discussion thread for a recent post on GTPlanet:
This article was published by Michael Leary (@Terronium-12) on July 15th, 2017 in the Gaming category.
Analyst Predicts PlayStation 5 Will Launch as Early as 2019
- Thread starter GTPNewsWire
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- 200
- JimmyLoops
They're Wrong, oh so wrong. wrong. Analysts like these are the same kind of "experts" that predicted xbox one would outsell the PS4 2:1.
They don't look into the deeper reasons and causes behind things, they just make predictions based on trends and figures. So predicting Xbox one to be the more success console would have been a result of them mistakenly thinking that Xbox 360 was the more favored console. While that may be true, there's caveats: 1: it was only the case in America, 2: the 360 gained popularity as sort of a default due to the horrendous launch of PS3 and the insane price. 3: PS3 caught up in sales as soon as prices started going down. Anyone who remembers the era of xbox360 vs PS3 should remember seeing this shift / flock over to 360. Large portions of them were PS2 owners who just got jaded and alienated by the expensive PS3.
Well, then there's also that whole thing Xbox one pre launch era, where in their e3 conference, Microsoft just shot itself in the foot by attempting to Rob us of our rights to game ownership and proposed even requiring online at all times. The damage was done before they came to realize their mistakes and reverse those plans. There you have it. Analysts last time were wrong. Why believe them this time?
This hype stuff happened years back before PlayStation 3 had launched as a matter of fact, hell i think it may have been before PS3 was even announced, which put retailers in a tizzy. I remember best buy embarrassing themselves by beginning pre order sales, then returning them because it was found to be a rumor, and actually PS3 was years away from release.
Sorry guys. The PS4 is going to have a longer lifecycle than 6 years before PS5 is even unveiled, lol. Magnificent click bait if I don't say so myself. I'd post this if I owned a news site. Gets people talking, and sharing opinions. Nothing bad about that.
You heard it here first.
34 year old gamer / veteran who's seen all this kind of thing time and time again.
They don't look into the deeper reasons and causes behind things, they just make predictions based on trends and figures. So predicting Xbox one to be the more success console would have been a result of them mistakenly thinking that Xbox 360 was the more favored console. While that may be true, there's caveats: 1: it was only the case in America, 2: the 360 gained popularity as sort of a default due to the horrendous launch of PS3 and the insane price. 3: PS3 caught up in sales as soon as prices started going down. Anyone who remembers the era of xbox360 vs PS3 should remember seeing this shift / flock over to 360. Large portions of them were PS2 owners who just got jaded and alienated by the expensive PS3.
Well, then there's also that whole thing Xbox one pre launch era, where in their e3 conference, Microsoft just shot itself in the foot by attempting to Rob us of our rights to game ownership and proposed even requiring online at all times. The damage was done before they came to realize their mistakes and reverse those plans. There you have it. Analysts last time were wrong. Why believe them this time?
This hype stuff happened years back before PlayStation 3 had launched as a matter of fact, hell i think it may have been before PS3 was even announced, which put retailers in a tizzy. I remember best buy embarrassing themselves by beginning pre order sales, then returning them because it was found to be a rumor, and actually PS3 was years away from release.
Sorry guys. The PS4 is going to have a longer lifecycle than 6 years before PS5 is even unveiled, lol. Magnificent click bait if I don't say so myself. I'd post this if I owned a news site. Gets people talking, and sharing opinions. Nothing bad about that.
You heard it here first.
34 year old gamer / veteran who's seen all this kind of thing time and time again.
Silver Arrows
(Banned)
- 4,715
- Brandon, MB
- Silver-Arrows21
>Michael Pachter
Yep, automatically take anything he says with a mountain of salt. Guy has been proven wrong time and time again.
Yep, automatically take anything he says with a mountain of salt. Guy has been proven wrong time and time again.
- 737
- Denmark
- gt6champnk69
2021, is more likely
lol
lol
cjr3559
Premium
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- cjr3559
Difficult to say. Sony seems to be releasing new consoles every 6 years. Whether consumers decide to buy them at launch is a different story. I've never purchased a console at launch and have all 4 Sony consoles.
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- GTP_Famine
I don't believe that you're being forced to.
What ten-year cycle?can't they just keep the 🤬 ten year cycle?
PlayStation: 1994
PlayStation 2: 2000
PlayStation 3: 2006
PlayStation 4: 2013
That seems to be a 6-7 year cycle. More accurately, it's an average of 75 months (6 years, 3 months), which would put the PS5 at February 2020.
Perhaps you're talking about a ten-year product support cycle?
PlayStation: 2006
PlayStation 2: 2013
PlayStation 3: ~2017
That's roughly 11 years that Sony continues to support the consoles. In fact they're supported for, on average, 135 months (11 years, 3 months), which would put the PS4 end of life at February 2024.
Indeed not. Between PS4 and PS4 Pro, Apple has released three new iPhones (across two generations: 6, 6S and 7), and Samsung has released three new Galaxy S phones (S5, S6, S7). Since PS4 Pro, Samsung has released a further Galaxy S, the S8.
It's likely that, by February 2020, both brands will have released another three flagship phones. And if you want to buy an iPhone 7 new, now, it'll cost you £599 (or more - some are £900) from Apple.
But feel free to keep on moaning about how consoles are too expensive and new ones are released too often.
- 27,387
- Toronto
- NewAesthetic
- SlipZtrEm
Which, as you covered later, is sort of the reverse of what happened this generation: XB1 had a horrible launch, but Microsoft has been doing a lot of good to right the ship since. I don't ever see it catching up with the PS4, but that alone doesn't dictate if the system is a failure.
Just because analysts don't have 100% track record doesn't mean their predictions shouldn't at least be considered — . That's like disregarding all weather reports because the guy on the local news said it'd be sunny, and it rained instead.
I'm in the same boat. The earliest I've got any of them was one year into the PS2's lifecycle. All the others were at least two years, or in PS3's case, four!
cjr3559
Premium
- 2,810
- Ohio
- cjr3559
This made me think; when did I first purchase each console?
PS1: 1999
PS2: 2002
PS3: 2013(!)
PS4: 2017
Before I got the PS1 I played a lot of Sega Genesis (first console I self purchased in 1994). Played a lot of PS2 games then must've been doing other things before going onto the PS3.
- 2,436
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- Weather_Systems
Come to think of it, the only console I ever bought within a year of release is the Switch (not counting the GBA SP, which I bought on launch) primarily because I didn't have the space in my budget to do so, even as a kid. Even now new stuff is a stretch for me sometimes.
My PS1 was a gift in 2002, I think the first PS2 I got was in like 2005, and I had to wait until 2011 to get a PS3. PS4 I got last year I think...
My PS1 was a gift in 2002, I think the first PS2 I got was in like 2005, and I had to wait until 2011 to get a PS3. PS4 I got last year I think...
- 6,356
- Michigan
- DaveTheStalker
Without a UHD drive in the PRO, they are already behind. Sure, they are trying to sell UHD players, I will buy an Oh-Poh, not a SONY player. 2019 will be too far behind the other console maker. It'll be X360 Vs PS3 all over again.
- 6,495
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- IfAndOr
I don't quite understand this...
Therefore I presume he thinks the next console will be backwards compatible with the PS4, which would be no bad thing. Being able to finish off your existing titles while slowly adding PS5 games would be a great idea. If the PS4 played PS3 disk based games I'd have bought one much sooner. MS have the edge on this with the Xbox.
There aren't any games that are made only for the PS4 Pro. Enhanced maybe, boosted possibly but not exclusively playable. Has the fellow not read the Sony statement mentioning this?
Therefore I presume he thinks the next console will be backwards compatible with the PS4, which would be no bad thing. Being able to finish off your existing titles while slowly adding PS5 games would be a great idea. If the PS4 played PS3 disk based games I'd have bought one much sooner. MS have the edge on this with the Xbox.
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- ryzno
Am I the only person who chuckled at the analysts last name?
Anyways, I'll be waiting a few years for the PS5. I'm rather disappointed at the games released on the 4. A upgraded GTA5 and we are still waiting for a GT. Yeah there are other games I bought but call me lame, I like the classics.
Anyways, I'll be waiting a few years for the PS5. I'm rather disappointed at the games released on the 4. A upgraded GTA5 and we are still waiting for a GT. Yeah there are other games I bought but call me lame, I like the classics.
- 3,802
Why are people doubting the possibility of a PS5 late 2018 let alone 2019? Especially with the way tech moves on so fast. They could easily make a PS5 where the games are still playable on a PS4 ( @ min specs) so that could make a new machine more sensible.
We also shouldn't forget it could keep them ahead of Microsoft who won't be able to release a new console as early as Sony now.
We also shouldn't forget it could keep them ahead of Microsoft who won't be able to release a new console as early as Sony now.
- 28,314
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- KR_Viper
- I Renown I
I won't get into the individual points you've made as that's been done already. I would like to draw attention to the fact that you immediately scoff at a prediction, only to go on and quantify your own opinion based on being a "34 year old gamer / veteran".
- 456
Agree...I won't get into the individual points you've made as that's been done already. I would like to draw attention to the fact that you immediately scoff at a prediction, only to go on and quantify your own opinion based on being a "34 year old gamer / veteran".
I was gaming with my Intellivision when he was -4
- 24,612
- Anoka, MN
I think the decline started before mobile gaming started to really take off, in fact I think that decline is a part of the rise in mobile games. Video games are pretty much in the same situation as movies where it's "big blockbuster or nothing" since that's the only way the studios can make any profit.
- 1,829
- England
- Player_7421
- Player 7421
That's exactly the same time when I got my Playstations.
PS1: 2002
PS2: 2005
PS3: 2011
PS4: 2016
Won't be getting a ps5 until 2022/23. Tbh, games these days have very good graphics I don't see the need for a ps5. Or Yet anyway, unless it's backwards compatible (because it's quite high in demand).
- 150
- United States
With the trend of steps I think the life cycle of systems are going to be shorter. We will buy them. Sony and Microsoft look at the phone industry and computers and they know a decent amount of people will upgrade every two years. I think it is just a matter of how much they want to jump or if they want to change their past model. I think in the end it is hard to tell. The sales of the ps4 pro may play into things. If they are going to just keep doing steps then will we see the 5 sooner rather than later. They may want to just to let some time pass to get the most from vr and 4k sink in. Hmm.
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- 161
A lot depends upon the next manufacturing node, if the 7nm process is mature enough by then it is possible but given the release of mid cycle updates this time around (PS4 Pro and XB1X) the next gen will likely come out in 2020 or 2021 on mature 7nm process with 4-6 Zen cores clocked at 2.8-3.2 GHz and a Navi based gpu with 9-12 Tflops processing power (I don't expect a huge bump in GPU power CPU will receive a much more significant bump). Given the kind of power that Vega draws to produce that kind of gpu power, I don't expect a console refresh to be viable before the 7nm process is fully matured and economically viable.
- 4,559
- Minnesota
- TJ136
GT6 on PS3 when PS4 was about to be released.
Now GTS on PS4 when PS5 is about to release.
Sounds about right.
But as games start getting more graphic intensive and "VR" becomes a new normal on games, one must ask,
Can a system of 5 or 6 years old able to run the game itself or will there not be enough there?
Early 2019 maybe some might think it's early but with technology and development of games going faster than hardware at times, it's probably right.
Now GTS on PS4 when PS5 is about to release.
Sounds about right.
But as games start getting more graphic intensive and "VR" becomes a new normal on games, one must ask,
Can a system of 5 or 6 years old able to run the game itself or will there not be enough there?
Early 2019 maybe some might think it's early but with technology and development of games going faster than hardware at times, it's probably right.
- 9,148
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- neema_t
On the one hand, this guy pops up semi-regularly and says things that are usually wrong and makes peoples' eyes roll, but on the other hand I think he's probably right. I think consoles are heading the way of the other gaming platforms (PC and mobile) - a tiered product line with backwards compatibility by default. I personally believe it's completely unacceptable that consoles don't have backwards compatibility, I mean even phones can do that. It made sense, of course, that consoles used to have their own architectures but now the two big consoles are finally on the same x86 architecture as each other and PC they should just stay there and maintain the ability to play older games. The upshot of that is older consoles would be able to play newer games, albeit with settings turned down (which should be easy, PCs manage it... Hell, Ubisoft manages it all the time by turning down their E3 demo settings for actual consumer hardware!)
I think, as long as it was marketed the right way, everyone would be happy if Microsoft and Sony released three models of their latest console every 4 years or so, as long as they arrived within the same year and people knew they were coming. No one cares that Apple and other phone makers do it with their products (primarily because the jump is never that revolutionary) and no one cares that AMD and Nvidia constantly release better models of their graphics cards throughout the year (because everyone knows they're going to). If Sony and Microsoft did the same and made it clear instead of implying that each console is still on a 7-year cycle, assuming each console could feasibly play all games for about 8 years from the date of their release in addition to all the old games they already own, I think everyone would be fine with that. I mean sure, that kills the impetus to constantly buy new consoles for most people but they're loss leaders anyway. Besides, if my PS3 could play PS4 games I'd still be giving Sony money both for new games and for PS+.
I think, as long as it was marketed the right way, everyone would be happy if Microsoft and Sony released three models of their latest console every 4 years or so, as long as they arrived within the same year and people knew they were coming. No one cares that Apple and other phone makers do it with their products (primarily because the jump is never that revolutionary) and no one cares that AMD and Nvidia constantly release better models of their graphics cards throughout the year (because everyone knows they're going to). If Sony and Microsoft did the same and made it clear instead of implying that each console is still on a 7-year cycle, assuming each console could feasibly play all games for about 8 years from the date of their release in addition to all the old games they already own, I think everyone would be fine with that. I mean sure, that kills the impetus to constantly buy new consoles for most people but they're loss leaders anyway. Besides, if my PS3 could play PS4 games I'd still be giving Sony money both for new games and for PS+.
- 82
- Szuper
Problem is not only games. Problem is, all *** hardware, wheels, pedals, shifters, flight simulators, TV, all need to update for new and it is lot of $$$$, and this only because SONY is idiot! This is todays biggest problem on consols. How about VR glasses? PS5 you need to buy another new!? Good luck 
- 201
- Mount Pleasant, SC, USA
- Fnord
Pachter's wrong (again). He doesn't have a very positive track record. But this kind of prediction isn't what he's paid for. He does this more as publicity than anything else. He's paid to guide investors. And apparently, he makes pretty good bank doing it. 2019 is too early for the PS5 - unless (and it's a BIG unless) the XBoneX takes off like a shot. As for the mobile model of releasing half steps every couple of years rather than having distinct, obvious new generations every 6-7 years, Mark Cerny has stated flat out that Sony still believes in true generations and that the PS4 Pro was a "mid-generation refresh."
Look for a PS5 announcement around 2020 with a release somewhere between late 2020-2021. 4K won't be the majority of consumers' TVs until around that time, anyway. It'll be a distinctly more powerful machine than the PS4 (and PS4 Pro). It'll be backward compatible (and for those scoffing at Sony's backward compatibility designs, how quickly we forget... how many home consoles were backward compatible before the PS2? It wasn't an industry standard practice before then. And the PS3 was backward compatible with the PS1 and PS2 at launch. But, well... $599 US Dollars, and something had to give, so the baked in PS2 was jettisoned.).
I'd also look for PSVR 2.0 to come with the PS5.
Look for a PS5 announcement around 2020 with a release somewhere between late 2020-2021. 4K won't be the majority of consumers' TVs until around that time, anyway. It'll be a distinctly more powerful machine than the PS4 (and PS4 Pro). It'll be backward compatible (and for those scoffing at Sony's backward compatibility designs, how quickly we forget... how many home consoles were backward compatible before the PS2? It wasn't an industry standard practice before then. And the PS3 was backward compatible with the PS1 and PS2 at launch. But, well... $599 US Dollars, and something had to give, so the baked in PS2 was jettisoned.).
I'd also look for PSVR 2.0 to come with the PS5.
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