Danoff
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Correlation is not causation.
America - The Official Thread
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Correlation is not causation.
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- Simcoeace
I think you're right. In the echo chamber that the GTPlanet Opinions and Current Affairs section has become it may not seem like it, but I think, in general, Trump still enjoys majority support among Americans. I came across this article on Politico that explains it to some degree. It's talking about the polling around the upcoming Canadian election, but I think it sheds light on what's happening in the US too. As I posted earlier the Conservative party went from a 100% expectation of winning the next election in January to the Liberals having a 90% expectation of winning the election by the end of March.
"An interesting phenomenon here is that the same forces which produced Trump the first time and Brexit are very much at play in Canada. We measure — we don’t like to label right-wing authoritarian populism, but that’s what it’s called by many — we measure that with some simple questions on child-rearing preferences, like when you’re raising a child, is it more important to emphasize obedience or creativity? And these measure a type of outlook which is incredibly powerful in predicting Trump support, Brexit support and the support for the Conservative Party in Canada. It wouldn’t have been a good predictor a decade ago. This is a huge new force.
Another major force which interacts with that is disinformation. The average Conservative supporter is not a little more likely to approve of Trump. They’re 25 times more likely. They’re 25 times more likely to have a favorable outlook on the Freedom Convoy than Liberals, and they are almost on that scale more likely to believe all kinds of disinformation — for example, governments are intentionally concealing the real numbers of deaths from vaccines, or the rise in forest fires is due to activist arsonists setting them, or more favorable attitudes to Russia, beliefs that climate change is false.
But the second problem was that Pierre Poilievre (the Conservative leader) was compromised, because within his core constituency, this 25 percent, they weren’t alarmed by these things. They liked Trump. They didn’t think it would be a bad idea if we were to become the 51st state. And so it became difficult for him to restyle himself as Captain Canada. I think it made it much more difficult for him to pivot."
I think that the difference between Canada and the US is that the hard support for conservative viewpoints in Canada is not more than around 25%. The "independent" centrist Canadian voter probably represents about another 25%. In the US, it seems that the independent/centrist voter only represents around 10% of the voters. So while in Canada the existential threat posed by Trump caused the 25% of independent voters to suddenly abandon the Canadian Conservative party and switch to the Liberals, in the USA 50% - 60% of the US public is still OK with what Trump is doing because it hasn't directly effected them yet. They don't really care about what happens to illegal immigrants, what happens to Palestinians, or students in the US who support them, what happens to American universities, the institutions of American government, the separation of powers, the independence of the judiciary etc. etc.
UKMikey
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Trump Approval Rating Tracker: Latest Survey Shows Record Low As Americans Oppose New Tariffs
The latest survey, released April 14, shows 52% disapprove of Trump's job performance.
www.forbes.com
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- Simcoeace
I've seen very varying results from opinion polls, so I'm not sure what the reality is. The Democrats seem to have really low approval ratings also. I do think this is a very volatile situation - once the negative implications of Trump's tariff policies start to work their way into the system I think it's likely that you will see a drastic decline in support for Trump.Trump Approval Rating Tracker: Latest Survey Shows Record Low As Americans Oppose New Tariffs
The latest survey, released April 14, shows 52% disapprove of Trump's job performance.
I don't see Trump ever losing the support of the base, however. What's disturbing about the American scenario is that a large number of American voters don't seem to care at all about the fundamental values of liberal democracy - they are happy to embrace authoritarianism, xenophobia, racism, sexism, apparently in the belief that those things only affect other people. They only seem to respond to "pocket-book" issues.
I wonder how many of those 90 million Americans that didn't vote in 2024 (which is an insane number btw) will see their savings wiped off, businesses being affected by tariffs, cost of living go up, etc, aka having THEIR lives affected one way or another, to actually do something about it during midterms, which sadly for all of us looking from the outside is still way too damn long wait.
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UKMikey
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I find it hard to see widespread apathy and cluelessness as evidence of majority support for Trump as you argue above. I wish the Democrat leadership were as fired up about the situation as the rank and file who appear to have turned up to anti-Trump protests in relatively large numbers.
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Honestly I think one of the most effective approaches is to have somebody that Trump inexplicably (but also kind of predictably) respects, like - and I can't believe I'm saying this - Kim Kardashian, to try to influence him. It actually kind of had results in his first term. Right now we're basically living in the USA of Stephen Miller, Peter Navarro, and Laura Loomer because they have managed to get him to listen to their perspective. I don't think Trump really has a strong agenda of his own, other than being 'the boss', and he'll do whatever the advisors that praise him the most ask him to. From my perspective, I think Kim has a better chance of bringing back Kilmar than the Supreme Court does.
This is a fundamentally authoritarian problem. Lots of other countries don't sweat this at all.
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Or get the Dems to stand someone it's impossible to hate.
Chris Evans. Reputedly one of the nicest people in Hollywood, a Democrat, a Trump critic, and Captain frickin' America.
America's Ass vs America's Asshole.
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Biden gives his first post-presidency speech at the 2025 ACRD Conference, primarily about the importance of preserving social security and democracy in the US at large.
I watched the speech and agreed with every point he made. If anything, I'd say it was a better, more cogent address than most of them throughout his presidency. But, if Biden had a modicum of humility, he'd fade into disgrace. Is he really the voice of fresh air that the Democrats need in such times of entropy. Let's find out:
He was too old to run in 2020 and waaaaaay too old to run in 2024. He put Merrick Garland, already a weak candidate, as AG, who completely balked when it came to Trump's trials and indictments. His attitude toward Israel was completely capitulatory and weak even compared to how previous presidents handled our vassal states. He basically let them dictate terms to us to our moral detriment. He broke his promise of being a transitionary president due to his age. His ineffective ability to communicate tanked his admin's big accomplishments and Democrats broadly. He's still a neoliberal institutionalist at heart- even in spite of his policy wins- which is at best, milquetoast and uninspiring in itself. He stayed in the race despite internal polling having him losing a 400 electoral landslide to Trump even before the debate. That was his big hint to step the hell aside. Harris lost and she actually CLOSED THE GAP Biden had between him and Trump. Think on that. You think the mandate rhetoric is bad in this reality? The one where Biden stayed in the race would have been worse on that front.
He knee capped Harris's ability to diverge from him or make herself appear critical in anyway of his precious legacy infamously telling her to not let it "see daylight" during the campaign. So after saddling us with a situation where were could not run with him because he's perceived to be senile, could not have a primary due to time and ballot registration constraints, he rubbed salt in the wound by demanding Harris fall on any grenades on the campaign trail to protect his legacy which lets be fair here, is disgrace and destruction of the US by failing to stop Trump. His refusal to step aside blocking a proper primary process kneecapped Democrats whole "we value democracy" argument. He openly stated during the campaign if he lost he'd feel fine as long as he tried his best, completely undermining the "Trump is an existential threat" argument. He refused to take advantage of the extreme powers that the Supreme Court bestows presidents now being weaponized by Trump, falling right into their trap of "Democrats are too civility-pilled to ever hurt us with this" thinking. And like all neoliberal institutionalists he did as expected and refused to wield power, instead mostly governing as a bureaucratic administrator versus a charismatic warrior.
And at the end of it all he pardoned his friends and family preemptively because he knew he was leaving us with a president who had zero regard for due process and was going to ravage the country in a crusade of petty vengeance. Which is also stupid because respecting pardons is an institution and Trump is the dismantling all institutions guy. He also pardoned his son after saying he was respecting the process which was another rhetorical gut punch the DNC had to deal with.
His legacy will be down there with James Buchanan. A well-intentioned president, but also one much too weak to do what was needed to prevent political catastrophe.
I watched the speech and agreed with every point he made. If anything, I'd say it was a better, more cogent address than most of them throughout his presidency. But, if Biden had a modicum of humility, he'd fade into disgrace. Is he really the voice of fresh air that the Democrats need in such times of entropy. Let's find out:
He was too old to run in 2020 and waaaaaay too old to run in 2024. He put Merrick Garland, already a weak candidate, as AG, who completely balked when it came to Trump's trials and indictments. His attitude toward Israel was completely capitulatory and weak even compared to how previous presidents handled our vassal states. He basically let them dictate terms to us to our moral detriment. He broke his promise of being a transitionary president due to his age. His ineffective ability to communicate tanked his admin's big accomplishments and Democrats broadly. He's still a neoliberal institutionalist at heart- even in spite of his policy wins- which is at best, milquetoast and uninspiring in itself. He stayed in the race despite internal polling having him losing a 400 electoral landslide to Trump even before the debate. That was his big hint to step the hell aside. Harris lost and she actually CLOSED THE GAP Biden had between him and Trump. Think on that. You think the mandate rhetoric is bad in this reality? The one where Biden stayed in the race would have been worse on that front.
He knee capped Harris's ability to diverge from him or make herself appear critical in anyway of his precious legacy infamously telling her to not let it "see daylight" during the campaign. So after saddling us with a situation where were could not run with him because he's perceived to be senile, could not have a primary due to time and ballot registration constraints, he rubbed salt in the wound by demanding Harris fall on any grenades on the campaign trail to protect his legacy which lets be fair here, is disgrace and destruction of the US by failing to stop Trump. His refusal to step aside blocking a proper primary process kneecapped Democrats whole "we value democracy" argument. He openly stated during the campaign if he lost he'd feel fine as long as he tried his best, completely undermining the "Trump is an existential threat" argument. He refused to take advantage of the extreme powers that the Supreme Court bestows presidents now being weaponized by Trump, falling right into their trap of "Democrats are too civility-pilled to ever hurt us with this" thinking. And like all neoliberal institutionalists he did as expected and refused to wield power, instead mostly governing as a bureaucratic administrator versus a charismatic warrior.
And at the end of it all he pardoned his friends and family preemptively because he knew he was leaving us with a president who had zero regard for due process and was going to ravage the country in a crusade of petty vengeance. Which is also stupid because respecting pardons is an institution and Trump is the dismantling all institutions guy. He also pardoned his son after saying he was respecting the process which was another rhetorical gut punch the DNC had to deal with.
His legacy will be down there with James Buchanan. A well-intentioned president, but also one much too weak to do what was needed to prevent political catastrophe.
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Balked is the incredibly AUP-friendly way to describe Garland (🤡)
UKMikey
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It's certainly the least smelliest.
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That's the way it appears to me. There's the hardcore base support for Trump ... but that wasn't nearly enough for him to win the election. It's the widespread apathy and cluelessness that got him elected. It seems like a significant number of voters were pissed off enough about elevated inflation, mixed in with the constant drum-beat about an out-of-control influx of "aliens" ... and a generous smattering of culture wars memes - tampons in the Mens room, trans athletes, pronouns etc. This was apparently enough to persuade a plurality of American voters to vote Trump in for a second term. And here we are.
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- SpacedustDaddy
Plus, people can’t pay bills with love and togetherness the way Democrats campaigned Harris/Waltz.
Kind of sad, well it is still sad. I watched the modern Manchurian Candidate(2004). Liev Schreiber’s character Senator Raymond Shaw says in one of his speeches, “… a grandmother has to decide whether to buy medication or food. She can’t buy both.”.
Bernie Sanders continues to speak about people faced with the same gut wrenching choices in the USA 21 years later. Of course we all know this, but with Trumpf not giving a damn and all his Oval Office booty kissers, doesn’t look like any relief from thisadministration conglomerate.
Kind of sad, well it is still sad. I watched the modern Manchurian Candidate(2004). Liev Schreiber’s character Senator Raymond Shaw says in one of his speeches, “… a grandmother has to decide whether to buy medication or food. She can’t buy both.”.
Bernie Sanders continues to speak about people faced with the same gut wrenching choices in the USA 21 years later. Of course we all know this, but with Trumpf not giving a damn and all his Oval Office booty kissers, doesn’t look like any relief from this
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I agree. This is more or less what his supporters wanted.
They want the sort of "democracy" that the US had in it's early days. As if that was a good time for anyone except the handful of rich white men at the top of the pile.
The Democratic leadership do not want major change to the system, which is what it would take to stop Trump. They want the power to do all the things he does when they're in charge, they just want to be a little more circumspect about it. They're happy enough for him to do his thing, and then when it's their turn again they can look like saviours for only being a "normal" amount of corrupt.
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Hold up!
The UK must repeal hate-speech laws and embrace freedom of speech, otherwise there will be no trade deals.
Meanwhile in the US, you've got people that are legally allowed to be in the US, on various types of visas, being deported for voicing pro-Palestinian opinions or opinions that do not align with the current governments agenda.
Can someone in the US please point out the double-standard to the Orange Buffoon?
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It's only the freedom to express what they want you to say. They're not free speech advocates, never have been. They hide behind the term so their views can't be challenged.
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- FuriousDemon
LMAO
So Trump is paying El Salvador to keep Kilmar there. That’s the only reason he is there. I mean, every MAGA involved in this BS should be in that jail instead just for this, not even counting all the other crap they have been pulling.
So Trump is paying El Salvador to keep Kilmar there. That’s the only reason he is there. I mean, every MAGA involved in this BS should be in that jail instead just for this, not even counting all the other crap they have been pulling.
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Ruh roh.
www.bbc.com
'Nothing has been done' - judge warns Trump officials in Ábrego García deportation case
Warning of "no tolerance for gamesmanship", the judge said she would determine whether to hold the government in contempt of court.
www.bbc.com
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Ruh roh.
'Nothing has been done' - judge warns Trump officials in Ábrego García deportation case
Warning of "no tolerance for gamesmanship", the judge said she would determine whether to hold the government in contempt of court.
And nothing will happen.
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Time for 245% tariffs on US from Canada
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