Apophis Asteroid Impact? Err, maybe not.

[CodeRedR51]

So today the Apophis asteroid is passing earth at a distance of roughly 9 million miles away. Close, but still pretty far out. Scientists are using the data they get from it's travels today to recalculate it's trajectory for the future. Why?

In 2029 it'll be passing by Earth again, but at a minuscule distance of just 18,000 miles. That's lower than some orbiting satellites. This isn't what everyone is worried about though. This asteroid will swing back around and join us again in 2036. While NASA has calculated that the chances of impact are likely, they are not 100% sure until they can get more data.

I figured this needed it's own thread as it would get buried in the General Space thread and it's important enough for everyone to see it. Obviously we have a few years before this could happen, and they need to do some more research as to it's orbit path, but for those that didn't know....now you do.

More info:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/herschel/news/herschel20130109.html
http://thespacereporter.com/2013/01...th-astronomers-to-study-potential-for-impact/

 

[Minty]

"It’s likely that radar astrometry in 2013 will shrink the uncertainties sufficiently to completely rule out an impact in the 2030s"


Um...or confirm it, right?

That's a big one, too. Seems like it would cause some damage no matter where it lands, if it does.

 

[CodeRedR51]

I heard their initial estimates for the impact zone is Columbia/Venezuela.

 

[Ridox2JZGTE]

So, with this new observation, will there be confirmation from NASA about the possibility of an impact ?

 

[Wiegert]

I did manage to watch some of the shots of Apophis taken by the Slooh telescope a few hours ago.




I've heard plenty of speculation concerning this asteroid and I'm sure many other here have too over the years. Sames goes for 2007 VK184 (which I believe is the only NEO that currently has a non-zero rating on the Torino Scale as of last month) and 1999 RQ36. Those are predicted to come very close to Earth in 2048 and 2182 respectively, plus both appear to have a greater chance of hitting us than Apophis does in 2036.

A 1-in-250,000 chance of hitting Earth is fairly substantial, but there's a very low risk of impact.

I heard their initial estimates for the impact zone is Columbia/Venezuela.

That's what I heard as well. But right now the chances of it hitting us in the first place are very slim.

So, with this new observation, will there be confirmation from NASA about the possibility of an impact ?

I think they're still trying to get a more accurate idea of how large it is at the moment.

 

[CodeRedR51]

They're looking to "rule it out". Not sure if they are just saying that to keep it hush hush, or if that's the truth. Guess we'll find out.

 

[Grayfox]

It will make a close pass in 2029 but in 2036 it may hit(if earths gravity pulled it closer during the 2029 pass.

 

[hennessey86]

Things like this scare me, but what scares me even more are the asteroids and comets that haven't been discovered that could hit us at any moment.

 

[Grayfox]

What is even more scary is 100's of asteroids hit the earth everyday.

 

[TheDrummingKING]

We're all gonna die!!!

 

[Nero9]

It's not good to eat your fingers about something that's a few decades away.

 

[opelgt1969]

Hope I'm around to keep up with this thread in 2036, so it will be back in 2029 then 2036 if we don't have impact in either year when is the next pass? 2029 is 16 years off I'll be 72, 2036 is 7 years after that I'll hopefully be 79. With my lifetime membership I'll be watching this thread maybe we can "sticky" it.

 

[BobK]

We're all gonna die!!!

That's true, either by asteroid or not. Myself, I'd prefer to go peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather did. Not terrified and screaming, like his passengers did.


Be that as it may, we probably won't know more until the 2029 pass anyway so I'm not going to worry about it now.

 

[CodeRedR51]

It's not good to eat your fingers about something that's a few decades away.

No, but it's still nice to know about it.

 

[Keef]

I heard their initial estimates for the impact zone is Columbia/Venezuela.

The world's cocaine insdustry will be devastated.

 

[niky]

That's true, either by asteroid or not. Myself, I'd prefer to go peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather did. Not terrified and screaming, like his passengers did.

That one's older than me...

 

[Joel]

So what happens if an asteroid is on a path for earth? Do we just get Murrika to nuke it 100 times?

 

[Wiegert]

It will make a close pass in 2029 but in 2036 it may hit(if earths gravity pulled it closer during the 2029 pass.

Not just the Earth's pull, but I think the sun can also cause its trajectory to change from its current predicted path, to a path that posses even more of a threat to us.

Things like this scare me, but what scares me even more are the asteroids and comets that haven't been discovered that could hit us at any moment.

Or they're discovered late, and by the time we do find them it's already certain it'll hit Earth.

I also heard that there were a fair few NEOs discovered last year of a considerable size that came close to Earth, but weren't spotted until they were about a week or so from passing by.

So what happens if an asteroid is on a path for earth? Do we just get Murrika to nuke it 100 times?

We teach Bruce Willis to manage an off-shore drilling platform, construct a shuttle craft, then pray he's still around when the asteroid draws nearer.

 

[hennessey86]

Or they're discovered late, and by the time we do find them it's already certain it'll hit Earth.

I also heard that there were a fair few NEOs discovered last year of a considerable size that came close to Earth, but weren't spotted until they were about a week or so from passing by.


.

I also read about one that managed to approach earth undetected, pass us and was only discovered 3 days later.

 

[hogger129]

I heard somewhere there's supposed to be one that is going to come within 167,000 miles of the Earth in February.

 

[DK]

We teach Bruce Willis to manage an off-shore drilling platform, construct a shuttle craft, then pray he's still around when the asteroid draws nearer.

Can't we just give Chuck Norris a baseball bat to knock it away?

 

[Wiegert]

I heard somewhere there's supposed to be one that is going to come within 167,000 miles of the Earth in February.

I just happened to be watching Stargazing LIVE on BBC2 and they're actually discussing that object right now.

But yeah, that asteroid that will come within the orbit of the moon on February 15th.

 

[CodeRedR51]

Update.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-017

NASA scientists at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., effectively have ruled out the possibility the asteroid Aphophis will impact Earth during a close flyby in 2036. The scientists used updated information obtained by NASA-supported telescopes in 2011 and 2012, as well as new data from the time leading up to Aphophis' distant Earth flyby yesterday...

 

[Ridox2JZGTE]

Mmm. false truth, or really is the truth ....

"The impact odds as they stand now are less than one in a million, which makes us comfortable saying we can effectively rule out an Earth impact in 2036. Our interest in asteroid Apophis will essentially be for its scientific interest for the foreseeable future."

Key words : makes us comfortable saying we can effectively rule out an Earth impact in 2036.

Effective is not good enough ...

 

[mattythedog]

Well, I doubt they can predict 100% what an object is going to do, more like 99%, and then they are just covering their own arses in case they are wrong.

 

[Dennisch]

And then, out of nowhere comes a second asteroid that bumps into Apophis, altering it's trajectory, sending it crashing on the Earth on the 21st of December 2013.

 

[homeforsummer]

Must suck for the people who expect the asteroid to hit. They probably won't even get to say "I told you so". And they certainly won't enjoy it, knowing they're probably going to die. A bit like the non-apocalypse last year.

 

[kikie]

People seem to like doomsday threads.

I'm going to keep me updated, reading this thread. I don't want to read through 1,000,000 pages in 2036.

 

[Ridox2JZGTE]

Looking it from different perspective ... the planet Earth is consumed by it inhabitants, and everyday more of its population used them ( resources ) and they ( population ) keep on rising .... maybe with the asteroid impact, it will be some sort of reset button for mankind, if a third of population gone, it would be less of a burden to the planet's resources.

Imagine how many people live in 2036 .. close to 10 billion ... I doubt our planet could contain even more without lots of issues. Energy, food, consumable water source, climate, pollution, conflicts, so many of these are getting worse due too many countries could not control their birthrate and economic issues ...

Don't hate me for this opinion, it's just that mankind do need to have that reset button once in a few millennium, until our tech and evolved civilization could provide the necessary support for for more than 10 billion people without having many issues like starvation, war and energy crisis.

 

[Keef]

So what happens if an asteroid is on a path for earth? Do we just get Murrika to nuke it 100 times?

Yes.