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The default position, what happens if nothing changes, is to leave and trade under WTO terms. The fact that negotiations and debate are ongoing means that anything could change.
Brexit - The UK leaves the EU
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Tired Tyres
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They have. That was the deal. They rejected it. All they can do is change their minds and vote for it or vote to retract Chapter 50. They can't do anything else other than maybe ask the EU for an extension. That would be foolish though. Never ending time extensions incoming.
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Or do nothing and leave without a deal.
Tired Tyres
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You're right, I responded to your list of things that can be done with an added: "or do nothing". It's just another option separate from your list.
Edit:
There are European Parliament elections in late May. I wonder if the EU would see that as something that should force a deadline onto any extension of Article 50?
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Whatever happens, we need to be out before 18th May 2019...
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Not really, we can compete on "Israel Plus" terms.
EDIT: Just saw this, a genuinely affectionate plea from the (some) Germans for Britain to stay in the EU.
Just the call to action that any hardcore Gammon Brigade would find it impossible to ignore.
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I saw that and what really surprised me was that they wrote something so informal/unofficial. It really makes the sentiment behind it seem genuine.
Robin
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Theresa May unveils the UK government's 'Plan B' on Brexit...
Plan A......................................................-......................................................Plan B
Plan A......................................................-......................................................Plan B
Wiegert
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The UK adopting a RTL writing system would certainly have a smoother transition process.
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Part of me thinks that Corbyn has only agreed to this because he is fairly certain that any vote for a second referendum will fail - I don't believe there is enough support in Parliament for the Government to lose such a vote, but you never know.
Another Guardian article last night spells out another fundamental problem with Labour and Corbyn's position - they have made it pretty clear that 'a' Customs Union is a red line and that membership of such should retain "the exact same benefits as EU membership"... the trouble with that is that being in a Customs Union with the EU without having any say over the EU's future trade deals will automatically put the UK at a disadvantage compared to where we are today - in other words, it is a self-contradictory pair of demands.
Another Guardian article last night spells out another fundamental problem with Labour and Corbyn's position - they have made it pretty clear that 'a' Customs Union is a red line and that membership of such should retain "the exact same benefits as EU membership"... the trouble with that is that being in a Customs Union with the EU without having any say over the EU's future trade deals will automatically put the UK at a disadvantage compared to where we are today - in other words, it is a self-contradictory pair of demands.
Tired Tyres
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2nd class status saying yes sir, no sir, three bags full sir to our new lord and master the EU. Something literally nobody at all voted for. It is the stance that set of idiots have taken from the beginning.
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It's worse than that... by entering a Customs Union with the EU but not being a full member, the UK will have no say in any trade deals with non-EU countries ever again. That is a hefty price to pay for guaranteed tariff-free trading with the EU.
That said, it could well be preferable to what we would likely face - tariffs on trading with our largest trading partner (the EU) and years of protracted international trade deals that could end up nowhere. Fans of No Deal/Hard Brexit seem to believe that the EU will eventually capitulate and agree to a trade deal that allows the UK to continue trading tariff-free with the EU but without a Customs Union (thus allowing the UK to undercut the EU on external trade). That isn't going to happen - it will be one or the other, but if the UK were to go it alone and proceed to undercut the EU on non-EU trade, you can bet that the EU will respond by making trade with the UK much more expensive.
It is (very) hard to see how any possible Brexit can beat the arrangements we currently have in terms of future economic prosperity for the UK, and alas it is most likely going to be those who wanted to Leave who will be most disappointed by either a fudged deal (that keeps the UK permanently tied to the EU) or by the potentially massive economic damage of going it alone. (The reason for the latter assertion is that Leave voters obviously felt that leaving the EU would benefit them, but it is (very) likely that it will not only not benefit them, but cost them dearly... it will cost everyone to a different extent, but at least most Remain voters were already of the opinion that leaving the EU was a bad idea.)
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If we want to sell things to the EU then they have to comply with EU law, the same way that Chinese goods sold here have to comply with UK law.
We're giving up the chance to have a say in what the EU laws are... I simply fail to see how that's good for British producers, manufacturers or consumers.
Scaff
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Sony are now looking to relocate
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2019/...n-operations-from-britain-to-the-netherlands/
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2019/...n-operations-from-britain-to-the-netherlands/
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For the first time, the Irish Prime Minister has stated that there will need to be a separate deal struck between the UK and Ireland to avoid a hard border and/or border checks at the Irish border in the event of No Deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...al-deal-would-prevent-post-brexit-hard-border
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Meanwhile, Michel Barnier signals that the EU's thinking on the prospects of a deal with the UK is still going in the polar opposite direction to that of the UK. His solution to the impasse over Brexit is that Theresa May commits the UK to a permanent Customs Union (and therefore ditching almost all of the UK's red lines). Frankly, it is quite insulting that the EU's chief negotiator still hasn't got the message that the UK doesn't want that - Juncker, Tusk and Barnier, among many others, keep saying 'the UK needs to tell us what they want!', and yet even when they have been told what the UK wants, they ignore it and proceed to tell us what we should be wanting.
Barnier has also warned MPs who oppose No Deal that "just voting for No Deal will not stop No Deal", and that the only way to avoid a No Deal exit on March 29th is to vote for a deal in the Commons... crucially, he appeared to say that the EU will only consider extending Article 50 beyond March 29th if the UK has already approved a deal. In other words, Theresa May's gamble looks like it might be paying off... now, it appears that it really is her deal or No Deal... and with the EU likely to reject any calls for any changes to the Backstop, then it looks very like Jacob Rees-Mogg is correct in his analysis that No Deal is now the most likely outcome.
The biggest irony of all is that while No Deal will be chaotic and unpleasant for everyone, it also guarantees that the dreaded, legally-binding Irish Backstop is dead - which leads back to the original point of this post... if the UK and Ireland can come to a bilateral agreement that suits them both, the EU will be powerless to do anything. The UK will not have signed any legally binding commitments, and the political reality on the ground in Ireland will trump any legal (or other) action the EU might consider in the event that Ireland don't play ball. By not giving an inch over the Backstop, the EU will have played right into the hands of the Hard Brexiteers who have said this would happen all along - it remains to be seen if the EU will revert to type and cave in at the last minute.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...al-deal-would-prevent-post-brexit-hard-border
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Meanwhile, Michel Barnier signals that the EU's thinking on the prospects of a deal with the UK is still going in the polar opposite direction to that of the UK. His solution to the impasse over Brexit is that Theresa May commits the UK to a permanent Customs Union (and therefore ditching almost all of the UK's red lines). Frankly, it is quite insulting that the EU's chief negotiator still hasn't got the message that the UK doesn't want that - Juncker, Tusk and Barnier, among many others, keep saying 'the UK needs to tell us what they want!', and yet even when they have been told what the UK wants, they ignore it and proceed to tell us what we should be wanting.
Barnier has also warned MPs who oppose No Deal that "just voting for No Deal will not stop No Deal", and that the only way to avoid a No Deal exit on March 29th is to vote for a deal in the Commons... crucially, he appeared to say that the EU will only consider extending Article 50 beyond March 29th if the UK has already approved a deal. In other words, Theresa May's gamble looks like it might be paying off... now, it appears that it really is her deal or No Deal... and with the EU likely to reject any calls for any changes to the Backstop, then it looks very like Jacob Rees-Mogg is correct in his analysis that No Deal is now the most likely outcome.
The biggest irony of all is that while No Deal will be chaotic and unpleasant for everyone, it also guarantees that the dreaded, legally-binding Irish Backstop is dead - which leads back to the original point of this post... if the UK and Ireland can come to a bilateral agreement that suits them both, the EU will be powerless to do anything. The UK will not have signed any legally binding commitments, and the political reality on the ground in Ireland will trump any legal (or other) action the EU might consider in the event that Ireland don't play ball. By not giving an inch over the Backstop, the EU will have played right into the hands of the Hard Brexiteers who have said this would happen all along - it remains to be seen if the EU will revert to type and cave in at the last minute.
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UK has set itself in the position to have a bilateral negotiation with the EU, which has the confidence of its size and unity. From an EU point of view...
UK doesn't negotiate as a member, but as a past member, hence a non-member (what matters here is when the deal would start running). The objective being that the Brexit end as smooth as possible in the interest of the EU in priority, not the UK (even if that implies that things go well for the UK). There's no room for passions, dealing with diplomatic middle finger is part of the game.
I assume that you misquoted by error since it doesn't means much (so i checked and landed on that from The Guardian: "Michel Barnier has warned that the move led by Labour MP Yvette Cooper to block the prime minister from delivering a no-deal Brexit is doomed to fail unless a majority for an alternative agreement is found.")
Isn't that obvious since hard Brexit is the default outcome from the start?
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I've bolded the sentence that I disagree with - this is definitely not the case, and (IMO) is the biggest single reason why the Brexit process has failed. The UK is still a member of the EU and as such the entire Article 50 process has been designed and executed in accordance with that (legal) fact.
This is the reason why all the 'good' bits of Brexit are in the Political Declaration (and are not legally binding) while all the difficulties arise from the UK having to sign a new treaty with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement (which is legally binding), before trade deal negotiations can even start... furthermore, the UK is prohibited from signing any trade deals until after Brexit purely on account of the fact that the UK remains a full member of the EU until the day it leaves.
As it turns out (and somewhat predictably), this has had a disastrous result - forcing the UK to legally commit to a treaty with the EU before any discussions on our future trading relationship have even begun, even though some of the most controversial consequences of that treaty depend on what that future trading relationship is!
I was paraphrasing, but his exact words were "opposing a no-deal will not stop a no-deal from happening", which is pretty much the same thing.
AFAIK, this is the first time the EU's chief negotiator has said that extending Article 50 will not be allowed unless the UK has already voted in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement. And as the EU have also ruled out reopening the Withdrawal Agreement, this means that the only two ways the UK can exit the EU are Theresa May's deal or No Deal.
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There's a spanner in those works though... the MEP seats have been reassigned ahead of the election. We no longer have seats in the parliament, because Leave means Leave.
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You wrote "just voting for No Deal will not stop No Deal", which is not a paraphrase but the complete opposite - you probably forgot a word, like "blocking" before No Deal.
"no deal" is quite self explanatory, isn't it?
The article 50 procedure relies itself on the procedure that applies to "the Union and third countries or international organisations".
UK is a member of the EU as much as someone who just jumped from the skyscraper rooftop is alive - and believing he's flying won't make the ground softer.
Do you have the source for that Barnier's declaration? I'd like to read it in-extenso.
Dotini
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It kind of looks like Brexit is a fait accompli, May's deal or no deal. Thinking that there may be a new referendum or somehow a better deal is like being newly dead and undergoing some kind of afterlife experience where you stubbornly cling to a disembodied conscious identity, a hellish limbo with no way out other than final acceptance.
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Yes, sorry - you are quite right.
True to some extent - but what the MPs campaigning to block No Deal want is for the UK Government to pull the rip cord on their parachute i.e. to revoke Article 50 and to stay in the EU.
I'm basing my comments on what has been reported in the mainstream press i.e.
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0123/1024915-brexit/
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ier-warns-against-time-limited-irish-backstop
... that a 'positive majority for another solution will need to emerge'. Now, that could mean many different things - from a majority vote (in the House of Commons) to revoke Article 50 to a majority vote for "another solution". But, leaving the 'no Brexit' option aside for the moment, that leaves a 'majority vote for another solution' - but Barnier/the EU have already made it clear that any and all possible Brexit options will require the approval of the Withdrawal Agreement to happen first, hence I can't see how extending the Article 50 process will be allowed/agreed to (as it requires unanimous agreement of the EU27) when the Withdrawal Agreement has not even been accepted.
My interpretation of all of these things is that Barnier is warning the UK MPs who wish to force an extension of the Article 50 process that they may be barking up the wrong tree, because unless they can show (by way of a majority vote in Parliament) that they have some other plan for Brexit, then an extension to Article 50 will not be forthcoming. Of course, these MPs do have a plan, but it doesn't involve exiting the EU... it involves keeping the UK in the EU.
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@TenEightyOne I would imagine that the reassignment of UK seats has already been arranged in principle, in the event that Brexit goes ahead on schedule - but they cannot have expelled the UK from the EU parliament before we have even left - and at this rate may not ever leave.
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That's the part i'm looking for the source about.
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You're quite right, I'd mis-remembered the Euro election date as being in March rather than May. The reallocation is currently in principle only.
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"Coming soon: Opening of the grand canine butchery. The first in Paris."
I saw a photography in a museum taken during the "La Commune de Paris" revolt in the 1870's, showing a butchery displaying prices for dog, cat and rat meat.
I'm sure you'll get use to it. I used to eat frog legs, you can do it with rat. You have rats, right? Always keep rats not too far away.
