Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

Deal or No Deal?

  • Voted Leave - May's Deal

  • Voted Leave - No Deal

  • Voted Leave - Second Referendum

  • Did not vote/abstained - May's Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - No Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - Second Referendum

  • Voted Remain - May's Deal

  • Voted Remain - No Deal

  • Voted Remain - Second Referendum


Results are only viewable after voting.
In yet another break with convention the Tories are to stand a candidate against the Speaker in the next election. Normally the Speaker leaves their party and stands unopposed in their constituency for the length of their sitting. However, the Tories* are properly raging that the Speaker has seemingly thwarted them "in the interests of parliament", as if that should be a thing.

No more Nice Chap Esquire.

* Whatever the Tories are now, they can't seem to agree on what they think or who should tell them what it is. They've become a version of Labour but with shooting parties and Harris.
 
Not criticising democracy at all, just pointing out direct democracy does not work. Important choices should be made with rational thought and well informed.

It works fine with smaller groups. It's just not intended to deal with the complexities of groups in the millions where communication and discussion between all parties is literally impossible.

Certain forms of government or decision making are more appropriate to groups of certain sizes.
 
France is threatening to veto any further extension to Article 50

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/08/france-threatens-to-veto-further-brexit-extension

This could really put the cat amongst the pigeons, as Parliament may find that it is forced into a No Deal Brexit... or... it has to force through legislation to revoke Article 50 completely.

They've had enough of being messed about. Most of European leaders seem to accept that the UK will no longer be part of Europe and just want it over so they can reposition fully.

I've always stood by the idea that Brexit wont happen, but since BoJo coming to power and the support shown for the Brexit Party, despite the lies being clear for all to see I did figure I was wrong... however I'm slowly coming back to my original thought that Brexit wont happen.

While No-deal is the default it seems like Parliament will take control and prevent it, if it gets that far. What the implications are for them doing that is anyone's guess... But after Brexit Labour need a new leader for people to actually vote for, and I can still see a certain Milibean being the one
 
I very much hope that the UK goes hard brexit with no deal, and negotiates something else 5 years from now from a place of stability. But I readily admit that that's from a perspective of not understanding every detail.
No deal will be devastating for the UK economy. It won't be a bit of a slow down or a few months in recessions. It will be 40 years before we recover.
 
.. a bit like how taking back control of our borders was too, and yet to facilitate Brexit, people want us to not enforce the one land border we have with the EU.

It seems like the decision about where and how to enforce UK borders is control over the borders, even if one is left open.
 
No deal will be devastating for the UK economy. It won't be a bit of a slow down or a few months in recessions. It will be 40 years before we recover.
It's not possible or credible to make such sweeping forecasts... a No Deal Brexit will, by all analyses I've seen thus far, do a great deal of harm to the UK economy in the short term and will likely have far-reaching long term implications, esp. for certain sectors... but there will also be sectors that may be significantly boosted by the UK's ability to diverge from EU rules over time, and that's before any trade deal with the EU is factored in.
 
No deal will be devastating for the UK economy. It won't be a bit of a slow down or a few months in recessions. It will be 40 years before we recover.

Just took a phone call from HMRC regarding EORI and STP, essentially they're just making sure we're registered. I made a wise-crack about the situation, and the chap laughed, then conceded that no-one really knows how it's going to work out. This is one of the reasons why - although being quite a vocal remainer - I've resisted painting too many utter doom and gloom scenarios for the country - just because people don't know, doesn't mean the worst will necessarily happen. I mean, I say that as someone who might end up unemployed and single because of Brexit... but we shouldn't ignore that it's in very few peoples interest for us not to 'just get on with it' after Brexit, and it's not unreasonable to believe that the people will make a good fist of it, even if the politicians are totally ****ing inept.

It seems like the decision about where and how to enforce UK borders is control over the borders, even if one is left open.

I think in reality, in the context of Brexit, "taking back control" of our borders corresponds to reducing immigration.
 
I think in reality, in the context of Brexit, "taking back control" of our borders corresponds to reducing immigration.

Of that I have no doubt.

Let's say post-brexit that someone from RoI drives into NI without a passport. That's not immigration. It's potentially illegal immigration if the person doesn't leave. From the perspective of curtailing legal immigration, you don't need a hard border to "control the border". Potentially it could result in illegal immigration problem, but somehow that seems unlikely to me.
 
I think in reality, in the context of Brexit, "taking back control" of our borders corresponds to reducing immigration.
Not even 'reducing', but merely 'controlling'.

This is where the anti-immigration element of the Leave vote are likely to get a nasty surprise, when it becomes clear that reducing immigration was never an aim of Brexit.
 
So doesn't your government just cancel this crappy idea and be like, "Oops sorry". I don't get it. It's a total disaster and it simply needs to be cancelled. As far as I can tell there aren't many processes in place to prevent outlandish decisions from being made so it can't be that hard.

This could really put the cat amongst the pigeons, as Parliament may find that it is forced into a No Deal Brexit... or... it has to force through legislation to revoke Article 50 completely.
Good. Make it happen. Deal: We get rid of Trump, y'all get rid of Brexit. How bout it.
 
So doesn't your government just cancel this crappy idea and be like, "Oops sorry".

Democracy.

The thing is, I think if the UK bails on Brexit and returns to the EU, that'll be the end of anyone getting out of the EU. It would solidify the EU as a ruling entity and I think all of those nations lose their sovereignty. I probably sound like an over-reacting nutjob here, but that's pretty much all the EU needs to demonstrate that leaving will not be tolerated. At that point they can start building their army like they want, and slowly further co-opting the capabilities of their internal nations.

I think if the UK wants to remain the UK, they need to make this happen.
 
So doesn't your government just cancel this crappy idea and be like, "Oops sorry". I don't get it. It's a total disaster and it simply needs to be cancelled. As far as I can tell there aren't many processes in place to prevent outlandish decisions from being made so it can't be that hard.

.

What is a disaster about it? The only way it is a disaster is if you believe all the ridiculous fear mongering stories that they use to scare people into wanting to stay in the EU.
Good. Make it happen. Deal: We get rid of Trump, y'all get rid of Brexit. How bout it.
Yes that would be great. Make Hitlers plan of a european state become reality. And in the process send a message that the people voting doesnt count for ****. The EU sucks and will be the ned of europe as we know it. I've seen both Italy and Britain slowly and surely turn into **** holes under the EU.
 
Let's say post-brexit that someone from RoI drives into NI without a passport. That's not immigration. It's potentially illegal immigration if the person doesn't leave. From the perspective of curtailing legal immigration, you don't need a hard border to "control the border". Potentially it could result in illegal immigration problem, but somehow that seems unlikely to me.

The problem we have, is that you're already a couple of levels more complex in your argument than the typical voter probably is. Too many foreigners = EU's fault = vote Leave = Less foreigners. The reality as @Touring Mars points out is very different on a number of levels. As I see it (and I might be wrong) the problem it will cause with 'illegal immigration' is in letting people in in the first place. Stopping someone at a border is probably much easier and more effective than trying to find and remove them once they've been here for weeks. I'd also suggest that the element of society most voters want to remove, is those that can and will fly under the radar given the chance.

The thing is, I think if the UK bails on Brexit and returns to the EU, that'll be the end of anyone getting out of the EU. It would solidify the EU as a ruling entity and I think all of those nations lose their sovereignty.

I don't think there's any other member state that would find themselves in the same situation as us, personally.
 
The problem we have, is that you're already a couple of levels more complex in your argument than the typical voter probably is. Too many foreigners = EU's fault = vote Leave = Less foreigners. The reality as @Touring Mars points out is very different on a number of levels. As I see it (and I might be wrong) the problem it will cause with 'illegal immigration' is in letting people in in the first place. Stopping someone at a border is probably much easier and more effective than trying to find and remove them once they've been here for weeks. I'd also suggest that the element of society most voters want to remove, is those that can and will fly under the radar given the chance.

I'm probably not understanding the incentives here, but why would people continue to immigrate (via the EU) into Britain illegally post-Brexit when they could just immigrate (via the EU) into an EU member state legally?

I think you're suggesting that having no border between RoI and NI would allow illegal immigration from the EU (RoI) into the UK. And I agree, but why would they come? They'd lose the legal status that they could have had in any other EU member state including RoI (if I'm understanding this correctly).

The US of course has its own problem with hard borders and illegal immigration.
 
I'm probably not understanding the incentives here, but why would people continue to immigrate (via the EU) into Britain illegally post-Brexit when they could just immigrate (via the EU) into an EU member state legally?

I think you're suggesting that having no border between RoI and NI would allow illegal immigration from the EU (RoI) into the UK. And I agree, but why would they come? They'd lose the legal status that they could have had in any other EU member state including RoI (if I'm understanding this correctly).

I'd guess for the same reasons as they attempt it now. I can only assume it's with the intention of achieving the right to stay at a later date, again on the premise that once they're here it's a different proposition to just turning them away at the gate. The CAB has the following guidelines https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/i...ly/your-options-if-youre-in-the-uk-illegally/

I'm not entirely sure of the legalities or motivation around it myself to be honest - to me the issue seems like vote winning vapourware. We had more control over EU immigration than we actually exercised, and Non-EU immigration outweighs that from the EU, we take a lower share of asylum seekers than a number of other EU nations, and even then it's debatable whether immigration is a bad thing or not.

is if you believe all the ridiculous fear mongering stories that they use to scare people into wanting to stay in the EU.

...

Make Hitlers plan of a european state become reality.

Riiiiggghht...

I've seen both Italy and Britain slowly and surely turn into **** holes under the EU.

I wouldn't know about Italy, only been once, but in what way has the UK become a ****-hole since joining the EU that is uniquely attributable to our EU membership - and not through the actions of our government, or consequence of our own democratic system?
 
It works fine with smaller groups. It's just not intended to deal with the complexities of groups in the millions where communication and discussion between all parties is literally impossible.

Certain forms of government or decision making are more appropriate to groups of certain sizes.

If people consumed their information based on facts and not throught their favorite biased media, people would be less enclined to make choices based on emotion.

They've had enough of being messed about. Most of European leaders seem to accept that the UK will no longer be part of Europe and just want it over so they can reposition fully.

I've always stood by the idea that Brexit wont happen, but since BoJo coming to power and the support shown for the Brexit Party, despite the lies being clear for all to see I did figure I was wrong... however I'm slowly coming back to my original thought that Brexit wont happen.

While No-deal is the default it seems like Parliament will take control and prevent it, if it gets that far. What the implications are for them doing that is anyone's guess... But after Brexit Labour need a new leader for people to actually vote for, and I can still see a certain Milibean being the one

Is that still possible?
 
I think you're suggesting that having no border between RoI and NI would allow illegal immigration from the EU (RoI) into the UK. And I agree, but why would they come? They'd lose the legal status that they could have had in any other EU member state including RoI (if I'm understanding this correctly).

Particular physical-service industries like cleaning, building construction/maintenance, agricultural labouring (particularly seasonal work), car washing, nail fettling etc. etc. have traditionally employed a high proportion of foreign nationals. The falling pound will make such industries less attractive now (good move, Britain), but as demand for employees rises so will the wages. British people are often unwilling to take some of those jobs on.
 
I've never seen anything like this in the House. Black Rod is present but Bercow is not being called to the Lords without a fight. This prorogation is "a fiat", he says.



im not sure if this is to do with brexit but if it is , things seem to be heating up
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-09...t-police-vans-during-security-alert-in-derry/

This is 'normal' terrorist/sectarian action, it goes on all the time. The problem is that a hard border (aka Johnson's default plan) will increase tensions and escalate things even more.
 
This prorogation is "a fiat"
This might explain why Parliamentary democracy is breaking down.

I wanted to stay up and watch the end of last night's extraordinary scenes, but alas I couldn't be bothered watching two utter debacles in one evening , so I went to bed around midnight, figuring (and it would appear correctly) that it still had a while to run yet.

Bercow is absolutely right though - this prorogation is nothing but a political stunt designed to give a minority Government as much leeway as it can get, although it remains to be seen what the real intentions are. As has been noted before, the consequences of prorogation at this precise juncture are quite interesting - and appear not to make a great deal of sense... why was Parliament allowed to come back for just long enough to pass a bill outlawing No Deal? What are the likely consequences of a new session where the Withdrawal Agreement can be voted on again? It is also significant that Johnson has made public comments that seem to point toward an NI-only backstop solution, and has just met the Irish PM for the first time yesterday, presumably to talk about that very idea.

It would appear, though, that Johnson really is up against it now and his entire strategy (whatever it may be) may indeed fail.

Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are about to formally back revoking Article 50 - and Swinson said as much in the Commons last night.
 
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