- 11,832
- Marin County
https://jalopnik.com/stop-taking-car-buying-advice-from-professional-million-1832966618
I can't stand this article.
There are a few points I want to address from the article (these are the article's points, not mine):
1) It's a fallacy that cars are investments
2) The Toyota exception to the rule
3) Assuming a loan
4) Accounting for the irrational
5) Poor people don't have time to shop
6) Poor people don't have time to not have a warranty
Ok, let's start with number 1. Since regular joe doesn't have big bucks, he can't buy cars that are going up in value, his cars are not an investment. First of all, that's not true. Everything you buy is an investment, and a lot of it has a negative return. Your goal (if you read the first post in this thread) is to buy value, in the case of depreciating assets it's to buy something that's not going to tank in value quickly. You should be minimizing the negative rate of return. Ok so when you buy toilet paper you don't care about the negative rate of return, because you're going to use the entire thing up and have nothing left to sell. That is almost never the case with cars. But even if you do plan to drive the wheels off of it until it literally is headed for the junk yard, if you're buying value, you're looking at running a lightly used on into the ground, not a new one. So this whole "I don't have the money to think about cars this way" is completely bogus. You can think about cars that way when buying a $2000 used honda.
Number 2) but.. but... toyota pickup trucks! Yes, there are times when buying new makes sense. Certain Porsches, pickups, etc. That's a tiny fraction of all cars out there. It makes no sense to tell people that buying new is a good idea just because there are a few models that buck the trend. The general rule is that buying new is a bad idea financially. It's a luxury. Yes there are exceptions, no that does not change the message.
Number 3) Why do we assume that people need a car loan? You can buy an entire car for the down payment on a new car. If you can't buy the car outright, you probably (note that word probably), shouldn't buy it at all. There are very inexpensive reliable cars out there, buy one of those. If you can buy the car outright and you're offered a crazy low-interest loan, go for it. But the loan is a completely separate transaction that has nothing to do with the car and everything to do with getting the most out of your money.
Number 4) Yes, car buying can be irrational. People pick cars that they like even if the numbers don't add up. That's fine, that doesn't not mean that we should be recommending that people buy new. That means that some people will go against the rational reasons to buy used and that's ok. That's their prerogative. It doesn't change the message.
Number 5) Poor people and rich people and everyone in between are busy. You don't suddenly have gobs of free time once you get some money. If you can save thousands on a car, it's worth a few hours of your time (unless you're insanely wealthy).
Number 6) First of all, you can get a warranty on a used car. I just bought a used car with a warranty last year (certified pre-owned toyota). Second of all, you're going to spend at least as much time on each service call with or without a warranty, because someone actually has to spend the time working on it. Sure you get a loaner if you take it to the dealership, but of course you don't have to have a car under warranty to take it to the dealer for service and get a loaner. I've done that one as well. There's also uber.
Ok, let's take my real world example. And it happens to be a large toyota, which the article listed as a possible reason to buy new. My 2015 Toyota Sienna with 40k mi was $28,800. At the time, the 2018 Sienna with a similar package (same generation) was going for about $42,000. My savings for buying used was $13,200. But it doesn't stop there. Because in CO we have a 3% sales tax on car purchases and a 2% first year registration fee (0.75% registration fee on the 2015). So The $42,000 van costs $44,100. And the $28,800 van costs $29,880. For a difference of $14,220 initially (registration fees are higher each year thereafter for the new car for the next 10 years). I'm guessing insurance costs more too, but I can't be bothered to look that up. So $14,200 in savings in exchange for 2 fewer years of warranty, 40k mi taken off the life, and me putting up with some lack of customization (I wouldn't have picked black).
What's 40k mi worth on the life of the car? That's a tough call. Let's assume that you were going to own the car for 100k mi and then sell it. If you buy it at zero and put 100k on it, what do you sell it for vs. buying it at 40k and putting 100k on it? The difference between those sales numbers is what the mileage is worth. A quick glance at autotrader is telling me that the figure is probably about $6k. So we're down to $8,200 in savings.
$8,200 buys a lot of maintenance. A looooooot of maintenance. It also buys a lot of time shopping. The lower your wages, the more of your time it theoretically buys. Keep in mind this is a Toyota van, this vehicle does a pretty good job of retaining value.
Buying new is a luxury. You get to pick out just want you want, you want the tech package with the cornflower blue exterior with the charcoal interior and brushed nickle inserts. No problem sir, right away sir! It smells brand new, and you know that nobody has ever put their rear end on that seat before you. Lovely... it's gonna cost you.
Honestly, I cannot believe how much people are willing to spend on the luxury of buying new. But even worse, I cannot believe that it's sold to people who are "scraping by" as a responsible decision.
Yeah, that article triggered me a bit as well. There are only a handful of cars worth buying new. Jeep Wranglers, Toyota Tacomas, and Subaru WRXs. They are worth buying new because the used market for them is extremely competitive, and all three of these cars tend to be modified by the original owners almost immediately. Finding a good one, let alone a good one for a good price, could be an enormous waste of time.
That being said, a car like your Sienna would be an unbelievably poor choice to buy new. (Not as bad as somebody who bought an E60 M5 brand new for like $130k and is facing like 95% depreciation though...).
I'm currently trying to find a 2017+ Toyota 86, in white or silver, with under 30k miles, and with a manual, from a dealer, for under $22k. As it's a fairly expensive vehicle (well, to me), I don't want to "settle" for a color I don't want, or an automatic (so many of them!!) so it's kind of a bear. Makes me want to buy new just to eliminate the hassle. If I quantified the time I've spent searching, at my salary/billing rate, I would have easily paid the difference many times over....but I'm not nearly as economically productive outside of my office so I can't do that.