Do the wealthy, the businesses, abandon rioting, virus infected and indebted cities?

[DesertPenguin]

I find it odd that he'd say that I'm awarded a free question when that question isn't likely to be seen as a result of me being ignored. I also don't believe he's interested in discussion, as I alluded to above.

Agreed

 

[Dotini]

Peculiar that you'd grant me a free question while ignoring me. Seems like trolling.

Every so often you make a post worthy of my respect. In this case, I chose to give you a like, a reply, and offer an opening for discussion. But since you diverted your question to another person in another thread, the chance for discussion here has passed.

 

[DesertPenguin]

This is getting ridiculous

 

[Dotini]

This is getting ridiculous

Yes. I do wish this forum had a member relationship counseling service.

 

[TexRex]

Every so often you make a post worthy of my respect. In this case, I chose to give you a like, a reply, and offer an opening for discussion. But since you diverted your question to another person in another thread, the chance for discussion here has passed.

You made no stipulation that the question must come from me directly. Upon seeing that the question asked by another individual in this thread was one that you'd previously dodged in another thread, you made the decision after the fact, and without having made that decision known until just now, that I'm not entitled to ask a question that another asked.

Edit:

I've tried to improve the relationship through PMs.

It's also humorous the way you've characterized a private conversation. I recall in that conversation that you requested personal information and alleged harassment but failed to cite specific harassment so that I could make an attempt to not repeat it.

I've gone ahead and taken screenshots of that conversation (should you decide to edit your side of it in any way), and since you've chosen to bring it up, I'm tempted to make those screenshots public. I probably won't, since I thought it was private, but I kind of want people to see how you've mischaracterized it.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Yes. I do wish this forum had a member relationship counseling service.

Let me rephrase that. You are getting ridiculous.

 

[TexRex]

Let me rephrase that. You are getting ridiculous.

No, it is ridiculous. And I'm done.

 

[eiriksmil]

I look at redistribution as my tax money claimed to go to one thing gets spent on something completely different.
Social Security springs to mind...

That's something we cannot accept. It's happening all the time and it's politicans being politicians. But it's not OK. That undermines the will to pay taxes. It needs to be transparent and be spent on what we are told.

 

[Joey D]

So @Dotini are you now going to answer the question about how what you're suggesting goes against everything throughout history? Even recent history shows that despite hardships, cities rebound and businesses come back, bringing with them people and money. Hiroshima had an atomic bomb dropped on it, it's not home to nearly two million people and has a good economy. Many major cities in Europe were destroyed as a result of firebombing during WWII, most of those cities have recovered, have a thriving economy, and have people living there.

It makes no sense that anyone would think civil unrest and a health crisis would spell the end to a city. Urban areas have faced far greater hardships and rebounded.

 

[Dotini]

So @Dotini are you now going to answer the question about how what you're suggesting goes against everything throughout history? Even recent history shows that despite hardships, cities rebound and businesses come back, bringing with them people and money. Hiroshima had an atomic bomb dropped on it, it's not home to nearly two million people and has a good economy. Many major cities in Europe were destroyed as a result of firebombing during WWII, most of those cities have recovered, have a thriving economy, and have people living there.

It makes no sense that anyone would think civil unrest and a health crisis would spell the end to a city. Urban areas have faced far greater hardships and rebounded.

I made no suggestion cities would come to an end. Merely that wealthy people (not all) and business big and small (not all), would abandon some major cities. I provided evidence on page one of this thread. This coming summer may provide more.

 

[Joey D]

I made no suggestion cities would come to an end. Merely that wealthy people (not all) and business big and small (not all), would abandon some major cities. I provided evidence on page one of this thread. This coming summer may provide more.

And history shows that doesn't happen. Will some people and businesses leave some cities? Sure. But history shows us that businesses replace those the move-out and people move into cities to be closer to work and other things urbanization offers.

 

[Dotini]

And history shows that doesn't happen. Will some people and businesses leave some cities? Sure. But history shows us that businesses replace those the move-out and people move into cities to be closer to work and other things urbanization offers.

Okay then! Surely you now have no need whatever to worry about the cities, much less the scruples of some isolated hermit on a racing forum.

 

[eiriksmil]

I made no suggestion cities would come to an end. Merely that wealthy people (not all) and business big and small (not all), would abandon some major cities. I provided evidence on page one of this thread. This coming summer may provide more.

All things come to an end and things change. The Middle East was the birth of the civilization and was one of the most developed places on the planet. The Greek had science, the Roman empire was a super power. Arab and North African countries ruled what we knew as the world for a while. The Brits had a quarter of the world at some point and for fifty odd years America was the country. Things change and they will continue to do so.

 

[Crash]

I'm seriously concerned about the continued economic viability of my city, Seattle. It is very deeply in debt, with aging bridges, rampant homelessness, rapidly rising taxes and much public discontent. Downtown was trashed Saturday with over 100 top line businesses looted and dozens of cars burned. I'm concerned the major businesses will not return, as they do not need to do so with remote working and continued security concerns. The riots will persist at least through the coming weekend, and perhaps throughout the summer. Coronavirus and social distancing make living here in the traditional way out of the question. The virtues and benefits are lost as the miseries multiple. In my neighborhood, people must watch their step to avoid human feces and used needles.

Here, how about this. Since, in your opinion, Seattle is going to hell in a hand basket and you seem to think that a mass exodus from this city, among others, is imminent, no one's going to want your house anymore as everyone flees. I will offer to buy your house and property from you as it stands today for $500k to save you the trouble of dealing with getting rid of property in an undesirable city and undesirable situation. And yes, this is a serious offer.

A million-dollar home isn't much in Seattle. This home is over 100 years old and is 1,600 sq ft, it's listed at just a tick short of a million. Depending on where his house is, it could be a dump and still be a million dollars.

I am very familiar with the Seattle neighborhood this house is in, and happens to also be the same broader neighborhood that Dotini's house is in. This house is in Ballard, one of the hottest neighborhoods in Seattle, and more than that, this location is less than 10 minute walk from the heart of Ballard and all the shops, restaurants, bars, major grocery stores, farmer's markets, transit routes, etc. 5 more minute walk and you are in the heart of Seattle's largest brewery district. This is about as central of Ballard as you can live in.

Because of the location, I'm not really surprised that it's close to $1M for something that is (/looks) clean but otherwise quite average.

Thank god Amazon is HQ'ed in Seattle then, along with Starbucks, PACCAR, Costco, Nordstroms, Zulily, along with several others. Seattle is at no risk of falling on hard times economically. Yes, it has problems, but so do most cities.

Along with significant outposts by companies like Google, Facebook, Apple, Redfin, SpaceX and more in this region. Seattle area is extremely unlikely to fail economically any time soon.

 

[Danoff]

There are many other reasons people like living in (or near) cities.
- Education (universities in particular)
- Established human relationships (Generations of friends, family, acquaintances)
- Diverse range of social groups (sport, music, arts, politics, hobbies etc)
- Religious/ethnic/community groups (Chinatown, Nationality clubs etc)
- Healthcare, nursing homes etc
- Hustle bustle (as Eunos points out)
- Cheap, reliable, easy public transport
- Connectivity to outside world (airport nearby)
- Feeling of “being a part of it.” (Progressive city attitude)
- Culture (galleries, museums, libraries, etc)
- It’s all they’ve ever known

Often universities are like a little isolated bubble in or near a city. It's kinda its own thing. I commuted to a university for a long time, so I managed to live pretty far away from urban life and get to a university anyway.

What all of the rest of that has in common is a need for a critical mass of people looking for entertainment and services (that's the word I was looking for... heh... recreating...). But it's a side-effect, not the main draw. Or at least that's my thesis. I kinda doubt that most people would give up gigantic sums of money and huge cuts in standard of living in order to have most of the things on that list. Especially when in most cases the 'burbs are close enough to tap most of the stuff on that list at a fraction of the cost of housing and much improved standard of living. If suddenly suburbs don't come with a commute penalty (because of teleworking), I can definitely see an outflow of people from downtown regions.

Certainly if downtown employment stopped requiring people to be in the region you wouldn't expect that to cause an in-flux of people to the downtown area right? I mean, we can all agree that it's a reduction on the pull toward inner cities. So the result should be at least some outflow.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

What all of the rest of that has in common is a need for a critical mass of people looking for entertainment and services (that's the word I was looking for... heh... recreating...). But it's a side-effect, not the main draw. Or at least that's my thesis. I kinda doubt that most people would give up gigantic sums of money and huge cuts in standard of living in order to have most of the things on that list.

I don't think Brooklyn would exist if this was true. I think what you are saying is somewhat/mostly true for San Francisco and Manhattan, and maybe Seattle - the three most crushingly expensive cities. Like it's near impossible to just move to San Francisco or Manhattan without a very, very solid financial plan. But cities like LA, Brooklyn, Oakland, Portland, San Diego, Austin, Boston, etc (the still-expensive but you can scrape by without a masters degree level cities) test your theory. People are willing to pay a lot to have those things, from my experience. Have you watched Portlandia?

 

[Danoff]

I don't think Brooklyn would exist if this was true. I think what you are saying is somewhat/mostly true for San Francisco and Manhattan, and maybe Seattle - the three most crushingly expensive cities. Like it's near impossible to just move to San Francisco or Manhattan without a very, very solid financial plan. But cities like LA, Brooklyn, Oakland, Portland, San Diego, Austin, Boston, etc (the still-expensive but you can scrape by without a masters degree level cities) test your theory. People are willing to pay a lot to have those things, from my experience. Have you watched Portlandia?

How do those cities test my theory? Are lots of people working from home in downtown Austin?

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

How do those cities test my theory? Are lots of people working from home in downtown Austin?

Maybe I misinterpreted your theory. I guess I can ask this question:

Would somebody with no (immediate) career prospects move to a city like Austin or Los Angeles to be part of the scene, even if they will be living paycheck to paycheck in a dead end job to support that lifestyle?

I would say, yes, there are people (possibly many) who would do that.
Is your theory that there are few people like that? Or is your theory something else?

 

[Danoff]

Maybe I misinterpreted your theory. I guess I can ask this question:

Would somebody with no (immediate) career prospects move to a city like Austin or Los Angeles to be part of the scene, even if they will be living paycheck to paycheck in a dead end job to support that lifestyle?

I would say, yes, there are people (possibly many) who would do that.
Is your theory that there are few people like that? Or is your theory something else?

I don't think that really tests my theory, because people move to big cities and live paycheck to paycheck in part because of the economy. There are tons of jobs, opportunities for advancement, and in some cases opportunities to get into a career you can't get into in other areas (hard to get "discovered" in No Trees Texas). You can get fired, and pick up another job - whereas in a small town it's much harder to do.

Of course there are other reasons, in fact many huge cities exist because of some of those reasons. LA is where it is because the beach has a good climate.

I will say that someone who works a dead-end job in Manhattan with no prospects of improvement and no plan to do so really does perplex me. But I leave open room for people to be crazy. Someone working the cash register in Manhattan doesn't exactly had the disposable income to live up the nightlife and drink in the culture.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

I don't think that really tests my theory, because people move to big cities and live paycheck to paycheck in part because of the economy. There are tons of jobs, opportunities for advancement, and in some cases opportunities to get into a career you can't get into in other areas (hard to get "discovered" in No Trees Texas). You can get fired, and pick up another job - whereas in a small town it's much harder to do.

I'm gonna say that "the economy" can be wrapped up in the "hustle and bustle" trait (or vice versa) and leave it there. I don't think we disagree in principal.

Of course there are other reasons, in fact many huge cities exist because of some of those reasons. LA is where it is because the beach has a good climate.

Quite.

While New York, New Jersey, and Chicago had served as centers of early film production, director-led shooting units started to seek out locales that could provide reliable, year-round sunshine. In some such places, like Louisiana and Florida, humidity and tropical storms caused other seasonal problems. Not so in California, however, where, in 1911, the Moving Picture World trade magazine boasted that 320 days a year of good weather could be expected for ideal motion picture photography.

 

[Dotini]

Here is some more reporting to join that on page one to support the idea that people of means are fleeing cities to nearby suburbs. Perhaps it is partly due to pandemic and economic downtown? If so, it could be a short term trend.

It's interesting that Lake Tahoe has seen a surge in real estate interest.

Wealthy buyers reportedly in 'mad rush' to leave San Francisco
By Andrew Chamings

Updated 1:48 pm PDT, Monday, June 8, 2020

Amid the depths of a global pandemic and financial downturn, the demand for real estate is unexpectedly rocketing in wealthy regions outside San Francisco, reports Bloomberg. Agents say that demand is soaring in affluent areas around the Bay Area such as Napa, Marin and further afield in Carmel, as people who have the means look to get away from the city. Meanwhile, the market in San Francisco and Alameda County is still well below where it was last year.

Bloomberg. Agents say that demand is soaring in affluent areas around the Bay Area such as Napa, Marin and further afield in Carmel, as people who have the means look to get away from the city. Meanwhile, the market in San Francisco and Alameda County is still well below where it was last year.

Elsewhere, Lake Tahoe has also seen a surge in real estate interest. The prospect of living out of the city on an alpine lake while maintaining a career is appealing for a new generation of young buyers, as many tech companies have signaled that remote work may be the new norm for a long time.

“I’ve never seen the demand higher for Marin County real estate than when COVID-19 hit,” Sotheby's Josh Burns told Bloomberg this week, as real estate agents see a surprising uptick in wealthy buyers leaving San Francisco.

Agent Katrina Kehl of Compass warned her sellers not to expect much interest in their recent Mill Valley listing, as the country moves through an economic crisis. To their surprise, the couple received 13 bids and the home went over the $1.7 million asking price by "a lot," Kehl told Bloomberg. Sotheby’s agent Ginger Martin added that “there’s a mad rush to get out of the city.”

Meanwhile, the rental market in San Francisco has dropped significantly, with rates for one-bedroom apartments in the city dropping by 9.2% since June 2019, and hitting a three-year low.

However, buying a new home in an isolated haven in a nearby bucolic county is not an option for lower-income San Francisco residents, and some believe the trend is only exacerbating the wealth divide.

“This is an example of another way the most advantaged, the most affluent have isolated themselves from this latest crisis,” Patrick Sharkey, a sociology professor at Princeton University who focuses on urban inequality, told Bloomberg. “It’s a very small segment of the population that has another home that they can go take off to.”

Whether this change in demand away from San Francisco and into the suburbs is a short-lived reaction to the pandemic, or a more permanent change, remains to be seen.
https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/article/Wealthy-buyers-in-mad-rush-to-leave-SF-15324574.php

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Here is some more reporting to join that on page one to support the idea that people of means are fleeing cities to nearby suburbs. Perhaps it is partly due to pandemic and economic downtown? If so, it could be a short term trend.

It's interesting that Lake Tahoe has seen a surge in real estate interest.

Easily explained.

The Golden Gate Bridge has recently been outfitted with a new handrail designed to make the bridge more aerodynamic. However, the harmonics of the new railing during high winds have achieved a phenomenon not dissimilar to the "brown note" only this particular frequency causes wealthy people to spontaneously buy more houses. They are calling it "the golden note".

 

[TenEightyOne]

Easily explained.

The Golden Gate Bridge has recently been outfitted with a new handrail designed to make the bridge more aerodynamic. However, the harmonics of the new railing during high winds have achieved a phenomenon not dissimilar to the "brown note" only this particular frequency causes wealthy people to spontaneously buy more houses. They are calling it "the golden note".

Seriously though... that much constant energy transfer and vibration has to be a bad thing, right? Also, looking at the bridge it looks like square box in cross-section. I'd presumed it would have a more aerodynamic cross-section to help limit the effects of wind.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Seriously though... that much constant energy transfer and vibration has to be a bad thing, right? Also, looking at the bridge it looks like square box in cross-section. I'd presumed it would have a more aerodynamic cross-section to help limit the effects of wind.

I routinely cross the bridge on my bike and it's terrifying when wind speeds get above 20mph - especially when you get to the towers, the wind just buffets around in all directions. I'm curious to know if it will be better or worse now. I'll take the haunting melody over feeling like I'm gonna get blown off a 250ft bridge deck (into shark infested, hypothermia inducing waters) any day.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

You know, with all these rich ass bay area techies moving to the Lake Tahoe area...makes me wonder if buying some property in Reno might not be a bad idea. It's still (at time of this post) cheap as hell (vs what I'm used to looking at) and if there is a big influx of monied residents into the Reno-Tahoe area, it might be a pretty solid long term investment....

 

[Dotini]

This article goes a step further and moots a mass migration after the pandemic has ended.
https://www.studyfinds.org/covid-19...rigger-mass-migration-in-post-pandemic-world/

COVID-19, Civil Unrest Could Trigger Mass Migration in Post-Pandemic World
by Chris Melore

SYDNEY — Much of the world’s population has spent what’s felt like an eternity inside their homes these past few months. When the lockdown ends, however, one new study says that may change in a big and potentially permanent way.

Researchers from the University of Sydney suggest COVID-19 may be the latest global event which could trigger millions of people relocating around the world. The study says their scientific model shows mass migration is commonly triggered by epidemics, civil unrest, and wars. Between the coronavirus outbreak and fallout from the tragic killings of George Floyd, Ahmaud Arbery, and Breonna Taylor, fed up Americans could certainly be seeking residence elsewhere.
et cetera

One reader commented:

Over the past decade or so, the trend was away from the suburbs and rural areas and into the cities. Millennials have few kids and wanted to be able to walk to their yoga classes and blogging jobs we were told

Now you will see that trend reverse. Work from home will be more broadly accepted. Personal space is more important than being able to get a soy latte 1 within a block of your apartment. Cities will become more dangerous and companies leave, police budgets get slashed and cops increasingly choose to look the other way on crime, because they don’t want to be fired and prosecuted if they have to use force.

 

[ryzno]

I know, I know it's Hannity...
@Dotini might have predicted something though...

 

[Dotini]

America has a long history of utopian movements. None have succeeded in the long run, unless you count the Amish or the Mormons. So I don't think CHAZ - or CHOP - is economically or socially viable as a lasting, self-sustaining entity. Internal dissension, lack of funds, legalities and practical problems will put an end to this admirable social experiment without the need for violent intervention, IMHO. Quite where this leaves the mayor, the radical socialists on the city council and the people of Seattle will be the ongoing issues.