Economics

  • Thread starter Rallywagon
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mustafur
I would say no, because most sports betting sites I know of ban you if you make consistent profit off their betting.
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We'll see. I'm conducting a small scale experiment on the matter. It occurred to me that the poxy rates of return I get on my various accounts might easily be outpaced by betting on low return 'safe' bets. I'll say up front, I'm not talking about gambling away a fortune, or coming up with a get rich quick scheme or 'system', it's more a proof of concept - I've not risked more than £5 at any point. The question is, over a period, will betting based on fairly consistent rules generate a return greater than 0.15% AER, or even 4.5% PA.... I mean, it doesn't seem like a big ask does it? So far, the rate of return per bet is marginally higher than the loss/win ratio, so it is accumulating an overall profit, albeit at a volatile rate. I just thought it was an interesting premise, that's all, I'm not advocating gambling.
 
MatskiMonk
We'll see. I'm conducting a small scale experiment on the matter. It occurred to me that the poxy rates of return I get on my various accounts might easily be outpaced by betting on low return 'safe' bets. I'll say up front, I'm not talking about gambling away a fortune, or coming up with a get rich quick scheme or 'system', it's more a proof of concept - I've not risked more than £5 at any point. The question is, over a period, will betting based on fairly consistent rules generate a return greater than 0.15% AER, or even 4.5% PA.... I mean, it doesn't seem like a big ask does it? So far, the rate of return per bet is marginally higher than the loss/win ratio, so it is accumulating an overall profit, albeit at a volatile rate. I just thought it was an interesting premise, that's all, I'm not advocating gambling.
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If we are seriously going to gamble, it might be just the right opportunity to cut down or eliminate our drinking.
 
Dotini
If we are seriously going to gamble, it might be just the right opportunity to cut down or eliminate our drinking.
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Certainly it's a good idea not to mix both at the same time! But in all seriousness, I'm not sure I'd feel in the slightest bit more confident if I were buying shares, not least because the incremental values are a lot higher.
 
Live look at all the stock markets right now:

5aa22d7456db5.image.jpg
 
About a month ago I sat down with my financial advisor & told him I thought the markets, especially the US markets, were irrationally high & I was considering pulling back. He talked me out of it (as they do). Too bad. However, timing the market is always tricky. . My cousin, who IS a financial advisor, pulled out of the market a year ago & made none of the gains over the last 12 months.

So, in a couple of weeks we are back to where we were in 2018. That seems to be the way it goes. The run ups in the market are quick, so easy to miss, the drops are quicker, so hard to avoid. Long term gains for the average investor end up being pretty modest. :indiff:
 
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Joey D
Live look at all the stock markets right now:

5aa22d7456db5.image.jpg
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Update:

Castle%20Bravo.jpg




One thing that I'm looking forward to is 30-year bonds recovering to higher yields. When they do I'm going to buy a lot of them so that next time some massive carnage happens, I can offload them at elevated values. Seems like a great hedge against disaster, especially if they are earning ~5% beforehand. That's going on the assumption that the whole concept of money borrowing and interest isn't completely perverted by central banks after this...which I don't think is a slam dunk....
 
Apparently the big fallout in the market was engineered by Russia and Saudi Arabia. The US military is starting to admit that wars are being fought over social media and in the markets, and it appears that Putin made a move against the US yesterday (and it's not the first time). Kick us right when we're down, right before an election. I hope trump is taking note of who his friends aren't.
 
Russia and Saudi Arabia doing shady things? I'm shocked! SHOCKED I TELL YOU!

Still, the price of gas should fall so we got that going for us.
 
Danoff
Apparently the big fallout in the market was engineered by Russia and Saudi Arabia. The US military is starting to admit that wars are being fought over social media and in the markets, and it appears that Putin made a move against the US yesterday (and it's not the first time). Kick us right when we're down, right before an election. I hope trump is taking note of who his friends aren't.
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How does Russia benefit by engineering a collapse in the price of oil? Don't they have a great dependence on exporting hydrocarbons?
Perhaps its more likely they engineered coronavirus pandemic?
 
Dotini
How does Russia benefit by engineering a collapse in the price of oil? Don't they have a great dependence on exporting hydrocarbons?
Perhaps its more likely they engineered coronavirus pandemic?
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The same way Lyft and Uber have benefited by taking the rug out from under the established taxi companies - provided you have the financial war chest to see it through (the high level of state control in Russia and SA provide the backing). You kill the competition, make it clear that you can kill them again in the future, kill their suppliers, their infrastructure, kill their labor pool. Once that's done, you have the market to yourself and you can raise prices to your hearts content. Who would invest in wildly expensive fracking when the big producers can, with the flip of a switch, make your whole industry unprofitable?

This move, I believe, was designed to knock out the entire American oil industry as well as harm Iran as much as possible.
 
Dotini
How does Russia benefit by engineering a collapse in the price of oil? Don't they have a great dependence on exporting hydrocarbons?
Perhaps its more likely they engineered coronavirus pandemic?
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They want to bankrupt shale oil businesses in order to increase dependence on Russian oil long term. They did this in 2016 too.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...o-start-a-war-on-america-s-shale-oil-industry

The previous article I read on this made it seem like the Saudis acted in concert. This makes it clear that they were against it and that Russia acted alone.


Edit:

More info:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business...-russia-saudi-arabia-economy-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn

I see, the Saudis didn't want to do this, but knowing that Russia was going to, they went for a pre-emptive strike. So they did do it together, but without agreeing on it.
 
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Eunos_Cosmo
The same way Lyft and Uber have benefited by taking the rug out from under the established taxi companies - provided you have the financial war chest to see it through (the high level of state control in Russia and SA provide the backing). You kill the competition, make it clear that you can kill them again in the future, kill their suppliers, their infrastructure, kill their labor pool. Once that's done, you have the market to yourself and you can raise prices to your hearts content. Who would invest in wildly expensive fracking when the big producers can, with the flip of a switch, make your whole industry unprofitable?

This move, I believe, was designed to knock out the entire American oil industry as well as harm Iran as much as possible.
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Why would Russia want to harm Iran? Aren't they allies in the field in Syria?
 
Danoff
Let's bail out the oil companies!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/10/trump-oil-bailout/

Ew....


Socialize the downside, privatize the upside.
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It's nice to know that, in a time of panic and danger, that we have a president that puts the well being of the American people before the stock market headline numbers.

Just kidding.

Isn't it hilarious that Trump rails against totalitarian regimes of the mid east and far east while simultaneously deploying their authoritarian antics to insulate entire market sectors impacted by his dumbass foreign policy?

WE MUST DEFEAT THE COMMUNISTS....by resorting to communist style planned economy.

Makes me wonder how many red-blooded, commie-hatin' American conservatives would even oppose communism if Trump instituted it - because from where I'm sitting, he's looking quite a few shades more RED than Obama, and I'm not just talking about his complexion.
 
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Donald Trump, the modern communist.

In other news, the stock market when from all-out dumpster fire to this:
saturnv-3_0.jpg


I still somehow lost thousands today because I clearly don't understand how the stock market works.
 
Joey D
Donald Trump, the modern communist.

In other news, the stock market when from all-out dumpster fire to this:
saturnv-3_0.jpg


I still somehow lost thousands today because I clearly don't understand how the stock market works.
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I'm down nearly $20k on the year. Ugh. Whatever. I've got a big pile of cash...hopefully it will stay big long enough to get a mortgage when prices drop. They're gonna drop, right? Right guys?
 
Joey D
Donald Trump, the modern communist.
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Eunos_Cosmo
Makes me wonder how many red-blooded, commie-hatin' American conservatives would even oppose communism if Trump instituted it - because from where I'm sitting, he's looking quite a few shades more RED than Obama, and I'm not just talking about his complexion.
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Red is actually an improvement from what Trump is talking about. At least in a communist regime when you have to bail out the companies you get to take the profits when they do well. In Trump's vision, companies keep their hard earned dollar when they do well, and they keep the public's dollar when they do badly. That's a lose lose for everyone that isn't a crony.
 
I suppose I didn't think of that and that is worrying. I guess my only hope is that the bailout is really a loan and those companies need to pay it back with interest. I doubt that'll happen, but it's wishful thinking.

Seriously the cruise lines should've figured something out long ago to keep their ships cleaner since they are nothing more than a floating petri dish. The airlines should've not treated their customers like cattle. And oil companies should've taken their insane profits and either saved them or invested them in other technologies that made bank, say EV batteries for example. The US shouldn't be bailing out companies that didn't have the foresight to plan for a disaster or a change in how people are going to do things.
 
Doesn't look good for Seattle area. Epicentre of the US Covid-19 contagion ... & home of Boeing, whose financial situation is seriously compromised by the global spread of Covid-19.

My retirement funds down about $50,000 in the last two weeks. :ouch: As usual, we all "learn the lesson" with hindsight ... & then forget it all. The US market was unrealistically inflated & Covid-19 was just the pin that burst that irrational exuberance bubble. I don't expect the fall-out to be as bad or long-term as 2008, but it's still pretty painful.
 
Danoff
Red is actually an improvement from what Trump is talking about. At least in a communist regime when you have to bail out the companies you get to take the profits when they do well. In Trump's vision, companies keep their hard earned dollar when they do well, and they keep the public's dollar when they do badly. That's a lose lose for everyone that isn't a crony.
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Texas oil companies can't compete if OPEC doesn’t manipulate prices

Everyone loves a free market on the ride up, but they become socialists on the journey down.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producers struck a deal two years ago to boost oil prices by cutting production. At the time, I questioned how long this new group, calling itself OPEC+, could connive without some party cheating or rewriting the deal.

Meanwhile, American oil executives, those conservative paragons of capitalism, hypocritically cheered the price-fixing scheme. After all, they know they can’t compete in a truly free market, where oil flows without someone, somewhere manipulating the market.


What OPEC+ gives, though, OPEC+ can take away.

Dozens of times over the past two years, energy consulting firms have confidently predicted oil prices would skyrocket and generate enormous profits for investors. They assumed OPEC+ was going to subsidize Texas shale drillers, who cannot turn a profit for less than $55 a barrel.

...

OPEC and Russia are not manipulating the market; they just stopped colluding. Not long ago, Republicans in Congress were promoting an anti-trust law to make OPEC’s quota-setting punishable in U.S. courts. Now they want OPEC to rig the game and force American consumers to pay more?
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I've got a lot of former high school friends in the slant-drillin' business over in Texas. I expect a lot of them are feeling pretty anxious right now.
 
So I really don't understand the market right now. Yesterday, the market went nuts and went way up. The result? I lost a big chunk of money. Today, the market tanks. The result? My whole portfolio is up nearly 10%.
 
The market is super volatile, I personally wouldn't have my money in this market unless it's on Commodities waiting for a big crash(by big crash I mean Recession making) with Panic.

If a big crash happens the winners are the ones that took their money out of the market and put it back in when it's low.
 
Joey D
So I really don't understand the market right now. Yesterday, the market went nuts and went way up. The result? I lost a big chunk of money. Today, the market tanks. The result? My whole portfolio is up nearly 10%.
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Are you sure the numbers you are seeing for your portfolio today aren't based on yesterday's close?
 

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