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Europe - The Official Thread
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Well, the 5 Star movement was founded by a comedian...
The situation in Italy is increasingly starting to look like an amalgam of pre-crisis Greece and pre-Brexit Britain, and if that doesn't make for an unholy shambles, I don't know what will.
The Italians, by and large, are still in favour of staying in the EU - but, just like in the UK where it seemed very unlikely that a Leave vote would ever happen, the Italians are very likely labouring under a similar misapprehension that the EU is willing (or even able) to "reform". In that regard, Italy are in a similar place to where David Cameron's pre-Brexit UK was - and we know how well that went. Unfortunately for Italy, that's where the comparison with the UK ends and where comparisons with Greece start insomuch as their membership of the Euro changes everything and precludes a straightforward exit from the EU, and puts hard limits on what their future options are.
The current Italian coalition government have basically said to the Italian people, 'This is what we are going to do - and it won't be against EU rules because we will get the EU to change the rules!'... but the EU are damned if they do and damned if they don't (reform). If they don't reform, resentment in Italy will undoubtedly grow and could easily lead to a referendum and/or expulsion from the Eurozone (e.g. if they press ahead with reforms that break EU rules), and that could bring about the end of the Eurozone as we know it. But, if they do reform, what message would that send out to anti-EU parties and populists across the EU?? It would set a very dangerous precedent - core EU policy can be changed at the behest of any populist movement that can muster a majority government - and it is simply not possible for the EU to work on that basis - if anything, the EU is based on virtually the polar opposite approach: that members sign up to abide by the rules and that is that. How can it work any other way, with individual member states threatening to blow up the Euro if they don't get their way?!
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Republic of Makedonia and Greece agree to end naming dispute
Greece will agree to lift its veto on Makedonia applying to join the European Union in exchange for the Republic of Makedonia agreeing to change its name to Republic of Northern Makedonia. The name change acknowledges the region of northern Greece also called Makedonia; both are named after, and claim lineage to, the ancient Kingdom of Makedon of Alexander the Great fame.
In Greek terminology the country whose capital is Skopje is currently called Fyrom after the acronym under which the country joined the UN in 1991; Former Yugoslav Republic of Makedonia.
Edit: Obviously Greek right-wingers are in uproar about it. The video about the cross Greek people says that the politicians who "give" them the name should be "executed for high treason".
Greece will agree to lift its veto on Makedonia applying to join the European Union in exchange for the Republic of Makedonia agreeing to change its name to Republic of Northern Makedonia. The name change acknowledges the region of northern Greece also called Makedonia; both are named after, and claim lineage to, the ancient Kingdom of Makedon of Alexander the Great fame.
In Greek terminology the country whose capital is Skopje is currently called Fyrom after the acronym under which the country joined the UN in 1991; Former Yugoslav Republic of Makedonia.
Edit: Obviously Greek right-wingers are in uproar about it. The video about the cross Greek people says that the politicians who "give" them the name should be "executed for high treason".
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So Italy's controversial Euro-skeptic 'European Affairs minister', Paolo Savona (the same chap that the President vetoed as Finance Minister last month) has now announced that 'The Euro is indispensable' and that he 'fully backs the Euro'... I'm no expert (and he most definitely is) but these comments struck me as very odd... until I saw this interesting video on Youtube that explains how Italy could leave the Euro.
The tl;dw version is that there is only one viable way to leave the Euro without causing a total economic collapse - and that is to leave the Euro suddenly when no-one is expecting it, ideally during a long bank holiday. Clearly, even an announcement to the effect of 'we are preparing for the possibility of a new currency' would trigger disaster, hence why there will not be (or indeed cannot be) such an announcement - if Italy is to leave the Euro, it must be done effectively overnight without any public discussion. I'm sure I heard or read somewhere that "Italy cannot say that they're leaving the Euro, so they're not saying it..."
The tl;dw version is that there is only one viable way to leave the Euro without causing a total economic collapse - and that is to leave the Euro suddenly when no-one is expecting it, ideally during a long bank holiday. Clearly, even an announcement to the effect of 'we are preparing for the possibility of a new currency' would trigger disaster, hence why there will not be (or indeed cannot be) such an announcement - if Italy is to leave the Euro, it must be done effectively overnight without any public discussion. I'm sure I heard or read somewhere that "Italy cannot say that they're leaving the Euro, so they're not saying it..."
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UKMikey
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No one expects the Italian devaluation... their chief weapons are surprise, haste and surprise...Imagine if other member states followed suit on successive public holidays. It'd be a eurosceptic's wet dream even as it wrecked the global economy.
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Tomorrow, Greece and Eurozone ministers will (supposedly) agree terms that will pave the way for Greece to officially exit its decade-long bailout programme - Greece is expecting massive debt relief and both want to see Greece be able to resume 'normal service'. However there are ominous rumblings. Despite being the receipients of the largest soverign bailout package in history, Greece's sovereign debt is still at a staggering 180% of GDP - a far higher percentage than it was at the start of the bailout programme.
Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has repeatedly said that Greece can never repay what it owes, which stands in stark contrast to what Germany and the rest of the Eurozone expect from Greece. And far from 'setting Greece free', the terms of their 'release' from the current bailout programme look and sound suspiciously familiar insofar as Greece will quickly find out that it cannot do anything without the express approval of its EU paymasters. As such, it is rather hard to see how Greece can 'resume normal service' in August.
I don't know if I'm missing something big here, but it has never made much sense to help a country mired in debt by lending it substantially more money - and yet that is exactly what has happened, and it explains why Greek debt as a percentage of GDP is now higher than ever. Greece has, however, turned a massive deficit into a small surplus, but it is still nowhere near enough to address the mountain of debt that Greece still has.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-didn-t-solve-greece-s-debt-problem-quicktake
Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has repeatedly said that Greece can never repay what it owes, which stands in stark contrast to what Germany and the rest of the Eurozone expect from Greece. And far from 'setting Greece free', the terms of their 'release' from the current bailout programme look and sound suspiciously familiar insofar as Greece will quickly find out that it cannot do anything without the express approval of its EU paymasters. As such, it is rather hard to see how Greece can 'resume normal service' in August.
I don't know if I'm missing something big here, but it has never made much sense to help a country mired in debt by lending it substantially more money - and yet that is exactly what has happened, and it explains why Greek debt as a percentage of GDP is now higher than ever. Greece has, however, turned a massive deficit into a small surplus, but it is still nowhere near enough to address the mountain of debt that Greece still has.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-didn-t-solve-greece-s-debt-problem-quicktake
Unsure where this belongs, but EU impose heavier taxes on US imports.
Dotini
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With the Great Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, it seems the US escaped its clutches by loaning ourselves eversomuch more money and then just printing it. Quantitative Easing
. The European Debt Crisis isn't altogether different - or is it?
With the Great Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, it seems the US escaped its clutches by loaning ourselves eversomuch more money and then just printing it. Quantitative Easing
Someone correct me if I'm wrong but the big diffence being Greece not having the possibility of printing more money. They're trapped in the euro economy forced to swallow more loans with no chance of printing money to ease the loans.
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Greece can't print its own money, but the European Central Bank can and has been using QE - but it is planning to end it by the end of this year.
@Dotini I don't know how close the comparison is between the US and the EU, but the main problems facing the EU include the fact that its member states have fundamentally different political and economic circumstances, vastly different levels of debt, no debt pooling, no mechanism for direct transfer of funds between states, and, crucially, a monetary union without banking, fiscal or political union. Given the huge discrepancies in economic performance and debt between member states, it is hardly surprising that the better performing states are reluctant (to say the least) to accept debt-pooling and the ability to transfer money directly from better performing states to under-performing states.
What appears to be happening in the case of Greece is really quite farcical, and the only person making much sense IMHO is Yanis Varoufakis, who believes that the EU/ECB are 'extending and pretending' - extending the economic and social pain in Greece for decades to come while pretending that their crazy 'solutions' are working (see 32:58-37:00 here for example), instead of facing facts and realising that Greece is completely bankrupt and that giving them more loans simply isn't working.
Varoufakis points out a fundamental difference between the US and EU when it came to their approaches to dealing with the financial crisis of 2007-2008 - he says that the US asked the question “What must we do to stop this crisis from destroying us?", while the EU asked the question "How can we pretend that the rules still hold?". His pivotal argument is that the 'rules' cannot hold because the Eurozone was/is fundamentally flawed, and thus the EU should now be asking the same question as the US did in 2008...
@Dotini I don't know how close the comparison is between the US and the EU, but the main problems facing the EU include the fact that its member states have fundamentally different political and economic circumstances, vastly different levels of debt, no debt pooling, no mechanism for direct transfer of funds between states, and, crucially, a monetary union without banking, fiscal or political union. Given the huge discrepancies in economic performance and debt between member states, it is hardly surprising that the better performing states are reluctant (to say the least) to accept debt-pooling and the ability to transfer money directly from better performing states to under-performing states.
What appears to be happening in the case of Greece is really quite farcical, and the only person making much sense IMHO is Yanis Varoufakis, who believes that the EU/ECB are 'extending and pretending' - extending the economic and social pain in Greece for decades to come while pretending that their crazy 'solutions' are working (see 32:58-37:00 here for example), instead of facing facts and realising that Greece is completely bankrupt and that giving them more loans simply isn't working.
Varoufakis points out a fundamental difference between the US and EU when it came to their approaches to dealing with the financial crisis of 2007-2008 - he says that the US asked the question “What must we do to stop this crisis from destroying us?", while the EU asked the question "How can we pretend that the rules still hold?". His pivotal argument is that the 'rules' cannot hold because the Eurozone was/is fundamentally flawed, and thus the EU should now be asking the same question as the US did in 2008...
It is easier, I supposed for the US to come to that conclusion. It's a single nation after all, where as the EU is far more divided, often joined by the principals of the union rather than much else (ignoring the eurozone somewhat).
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I would go further and say it is not only 'easier' for the US, but that at least it was even possible for the US to save itself. The Eurozone, on the other hand, is perilously close to the point where it cannot act to save itself, because doing so involves politically impossible manoeuvres. I would even go further and say that the current situation in the Eurozone is untenable - it cannot survive unless it either scraps the Euro OR it becomes a fully fledged supra-state, complete with debt pooling and profit-sharing. Scrapping the Euro would be a monumental disaster and would probably end the EU project entirely - but the other option isn't likely to happen while Berlin sticks to its guns and refuses to countenance debt pooling, and other member states will never agree to ceding sovereignty as much as would be required. It's that combination of an untenable state of affairs and no plausible mechanism to solve it that worries me.
I think this was more true in the aftermath of the financial crisis, but it seems to be more stable now (after the general elections of the member states) than at any point before. Italy being the exception.
That said, having spent a decent amount of time in Italy and having family who are Italian and live in Italy. I'm not sure how much the current government is going to do/achieve. Brexit has opened the eyes of many people on the continent and at least in the people I know and spoke to and their friends/families.. Italy leaving the EU seems less like a good idea than it did prior to the vote in the UK. But I don't know how that is backed up by polls or research into public opinion in Italy.
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'Stability', however, is a relative term - the situation in Greece is 'stable', for example, but so is Michael Schumacher. Sorry for the horrible analogy, but it holds true. Economically, Greece is on life support - is it any wonder that the Greek people are unlikely to vote in favour of turning it off? The Italian sovereign debt crisis has barely started, but in their case the life support machinery is not available - the EU cannot/will not bail out Italy, but, in a cruel irony, it can (and most likely will) prevent Italy from taking the necessary steps to save itself.
It unbearably frustrates me that the people want more souvergnty and less eu. Wv ar eewe as small divided countries going to do?
We're better of as a superstate against multinationals and the likes of Trump.
I don't get this idea of souvereignty when that souvereigntt means you can do **** with it. I also believe this is an outdated idea stemming from a time when the world wasn't as much connected.
I totally don't get nationalism (whish someone could explain.why that's something good in any way). I don't believe in countries as it's organised now, we find it to be unfair if someone has less oppertunities in life due to the social and financial standings of their parents but when someone lives in a '**** hole' county they can't move to a place where more oppertunity is pressent because borders we ourselves made up?
I really don't get this idea it feels like we're going through puberty trying to find out identity as a species and I for one don't like the identity we're choosing.
I'm not sure Italy's salvation lies within Europe to be honest.
They need fairly radial change and ousting of Mafioso's and the corrupt government systems in play. For example; I think the region my fiance is from has more politicians in it than the whole of the UK, and those politicians are paid very well compared to any politicians in the UK. If they could free up that money, restructure slightly they'd be in a far better position and it would be far more sustainable than the current situation.
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But that entirely depends on what the EU is or is likely to become.
The idea of a superstate that is an economic powerhouse, is democratic, where everyone benefits equally and everyone pays their fair share, is able to handle its debt burden, provides protection to its citizens, respects human rights, has coherent policies on immigration (internal and external), taxes, corruption, the rule of law and a common judiciary etc. sounds great - the trouble is that it is increasingly far from reality.
As has been said before no doubt by many people, the concepts and founding principles of the EU (and even the Euro) are sound - but it was never certain exactly how to make it happen. The Euro was intended to be the first major step in making Europe something more than a mere trading bloc, but it is becoming increasingly clear that it probably should have been closer to the final step - and in imposing a common currency on a group of entirely disparate economies and making vast amounts of cheap loans available to basket case economies like Greece, the EU has potentially made a catastrophic mistake.
And therein lies the rub - it is all well and good to envisage (and hope for) a flawless union that has all the benefits described above and is working perfectly, but there is also the question of what happens when things go wrong. But for sovereignty, read also democracy - it sounds fine to concede sovereignty if everything works and the suprastate project is delivering prosperity for you and your neighbours, but it doesn't sound so great when things aren't working out for you but you are now powerless to do anything about it. As such, I don't think this is about nationalism but is more about maintaining a level of flexibility and democratic oversight in a diverse social and economic union that never was and never will be perfect.
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The EU can co-operate economically and at the same time have sovereign governments, it's perfectly doable ...
btw. increased nationalist tendencies emerged when the EU tried to suppress sovereign governments via mandatory compliance to some EU policies that have no economical reason and are in direct conflict with national interests.
Wouldn't it be a more efficient when we set aside our 'diffrences' and have a m9re centralised government as eu and have a vote over it?
I just don't get what makes having the countries as they are now a better option but some people who'd like to be proud of their country but can't ever give a reason why they're proud of their country in a way theybcouldn't be proud of the eu.
VolkswagenX
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I am I'm belgian. I wasn't clear, I don't get the european mentallity of slight shauvinism where we thibk we're so diffrent from the people 400km away thatbwe can't have a centralised government.
I do understand, with current feelings within the eu, you find it odd I suggest such a thing as it seems unrealistic in this climate. But when feelings are tossed aside I don't see how we can't have this system.
All I see is emotions in the way nothing more. Maybe you can prove me wrong.
Where might you be from?
I think the problem is, is that when anything gets complicated to a certain degree it becomes harder to understand and thus less trusted. Look at how popular movements are these days that go against science, anti-vax for example. When you make something more complex and less directly attached to things people can see and feel it grows mistrust, which is understandable.
Dotini
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But.people can learn.how it works become.more attached. They refuse to.
A 'souvereign' government isn't less complex
People have evolved over millions of years. It's in our DNA (genetics) for men to have intercourse with women then violently protect and provide for the family.
But suddenly culture (memetics) has turned everything upside down and screwed up. Hive mind AI or aliens would now be more useful than primitive humans.
Recrudescence of sovereign, populist governments is the reaction of a dying generation attempting to restore biological identity. It will fail.
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I hate to say it, or to sound too cynical, but if it were that simple it would have happened long ago. National sovereignty is still important - it ensures that entire populations of people do not become completely disempowered by a majority that doesn't have their interests at heart.
However it is important to make the distinction between 'going it alone' (nationalism) and 'decentralisation of power' (devolution). While I don't understand the former, the latter recognises that decisions can (and should) be made by different forms of government at different levels - Scotland is a good (and pertinent) example. Scotland is part of the UK, and the UK is (for the moment) part of the EU - but it also has its own devolved parliament as well. What happens in Scotland is decided in Holyrood, Westminster and Brussels for the time being - a situation I personally like and voted for (No to Scottish independence and Yes to remaining in the EU), but there are many other Scots who want out of the UK (45%) and some who want out of the EU (38%) (although, curiously, most Scots who voted to leave the UK also voted to stay in the EU!).
My argument for staying in the EU is that it benefits us to do so and that, ultimately, it ought to benefit all its members (though that is increasingly debatable) but I was also happy with the status quo - that there are various levels of government and that people maintain a level of control over their own regional affairs. But while membership of the EU doesn't preclude regional democracy, ceding sovereignty does - when the goal is to centralise power, the voice of the people of any one region necessarily becomes weaker - and that is a problem, especially when things start to go wrong.
VolkswagenX
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I think that we (the Netherlands) are different enough from Belgium to not want to share a government.
Can't really prove you wrong on something that you feel, but I disagree a lot with having a centralized EU government. The different countries in the EU are culturally to different to have the system you want. You would have to replace the different cultures in EU with one culture and I don't like that idea.
Not born here but living in the Netherlands. My father is Dutch (non European on my mothers side)
