Gatwick airport closed by drone attack

[eran0004]

I'm probably not getting my point across. Imagine a wide tarmac road in front of you with a clearly-marked centreline. You have to hover your drone there. You have the length of time it takes from hearing the aircraft at the far end of the runway spin up to it reaching your intended position on the runway. That's about 50s. It's not a difficult task to perform and most children could pick up the skills in an hour or so.

In that time you fly your drone from your covert position (or the back of your pickup or wherever) to hovering over the centreline. Detonating a small explosive in front of, alongside or in contact with an aircraft doing over 100mph on its takeoff run is likely to have a terrible effect.

Runway arrival to rotation takes 7:35 to 8:25 in this video of a 737 departing Gatwick. Look how close the buildings are.... 50 seconds is plenty of time to put your drone in position. If you got your drone down unseen into ground level close to the runway between take-offs you can vastly minimise that 50s. With practice you'd make the distance quickly enough to do catastrophic damage whether the pilots see the drone or not. You're saying it would be very hard to get a drone into the right position at the right time - it really wouldn't. Planes all take off from the same runways at the same time (cos wind) and all follow the same routines on the runway (cos aerodynamics). If you aim for the V1 point of the takeoff then you guarantee the aircraft (by definition) can not stop on the runway and is committed to a take-off whatever happens.

All in all I find that method an obvious way to present a grave threat to aircraft and that's why I'm astonished that the response seems to have been so lacking. @Touring Mars suggests that there may be more afoot than we know and I suspect he's right.

Let’s say you can get 500 meters from the runway and that the engine sound gives you 30 seconds to cover that distance with your drone. That means an average acceleration of 2.2 m/s^2 along the horizontal vector (assuming that you want to stop on the runway and not overshoot it). Is that doable while carrying enough explosives to cause substantial damage to the aircraft? How big does the drone need to be and how far away would it be visible? If the pilot spots it 15 seconds before V1, that gives them plenty of time to abort.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Let’s say you can get 500 meters from the runway and that the engine sound gives you 30 seconds to cover that distance with your drone.

Why pick such a great distance and take half the take-off time away? Surely you'd choose somewhere 100m - 150m from the runway? Presuming you've done the planning and programming in advance that's not difficult to do, particularly at Gatwick where you can be that close on public highway. That's well within the performance of an industrial drone, even easier with a "toy" drone (though it would be harder to frick the default programming in that). We're not after a long flight so there's no need to go easy on the battery.

Is that doable while carrying enough explosives to cause substantial damage to the aircraft?

This (relatively) cheap drone is a type very similar to one I've used for a LIDAR survey. I don't know how much the twin-camera weighed but it was evidently somewhat less than the 10kg payload for this type. I'm pretty sure that even 1kg could have a devastating effect.

How big does the drone need to be and how far away would it be visible?

£3000 worth, and at night it wouldn't be visible at all. Far more visible in the day, obviously, weather/sun dependent.

If the pilot spots it 15 seconds before V1, that gives them plenty of time to abort.

It gives them plenty of time to reject take-off but their stopping distance is still going to take them into a dangerous place. Seems like such an attack would best be planned for night-time or poor weather.

 

[Tornado]

Plus if they did do it in bad weather and/or at night where the tower/pilot didn't see it they'd have plenty of chances to try and get it right.

 

[eran0004]

Why pick such a great distance and take half the take-off time away? Surely you'd choose somewhere 100m - 150m from the runway? Presuming you've done the planning and programming in advance that's not difficult to do, particularly at Gatwick where you can be that close on public highway. That's well within the performance of an industrial drone, even easier with a "toy" drone (though it would be harder to frick the default programming in that). We're not after a long flight so there's no need to go easy on the battery.

You can’t get that close to the runway. 400 meters seems to be the closest you can get, considering that aircraft don’t take off at the very end of the last piece of tarmac there is. But then you would also need to make sure that nobody spots you while you prepare the drone, so 500 meters seems like a realistic estimate of how close you can get.

A fully loaded 737 reaches V1 in approximately 40 seconds. But since you’d be situated about 1.2 km from the aircraft when it starts the takeoff run you need to subtract the time it takes for the sound to reach you, which is around four seconds. Subtract reaction time from that and you’re left with 35 seconds. And you probably want around five seconds of margin. So 30 seconds effective time to travel 500 meters.

This (relatively) cheap drone is a type very similar to one I've used for a LIDAR survey. I don't know how much the twin-camera weighed but it was evidently somewhat less than the 10kg payload for this type. I'm pretty sure that even 1kg could have a devastating effect.

And it could go from standing on the ground to travelling at 100 km/h in 15 seconds while carrying a substantial payload?

A stinger missile has a 3kg warhead, so let’s assume that’s what it must carry. And let’s also consider that the amount of damage that would be devastating in the air might not be that harmful on the ground. At 30,000 feet it’s enough to punch a small hole in the fuselage and the pressure difference would do the rest of the job. On the ground a small hole would just be a small hole.

It gives them plenty of time to reject take-off but their stopping distance is still going to take them into a dangerous place. Seems like such an attack would best be planned for night-time or poor weather.

I bet what would happen is that they blow the nose gear off and the plane comes to a halt at the end of the runway. Everyone walks away. Unless your drone carries a massive bomb, but then why would you go after an aircraft when you could just send your drone to the parliament?

 

[Dennisch]

 

[TenEightyOne]

You can’t get that close to the runway. 400 meters seems to be the closest you can get, considering that aircraft don’t take off at the very end of the last piece of tarmac there is.

In the picture you can see a public road with industrial units, the kind of place that a van goes completely unnoticed. That's about 120m from the centerline halfway down the runway.

But then you would also need to make sure that nobody spots you while you prepare the drone, so 500 meters seems like a realistic estimate of how close you can get.

Huh? You could prepare the drone in your house. It just needs to know where to go when you press the button. Then launch it from out of the back of your van, from the back of a pickup, or through the roof of a modified (eg cutout) box truck.

A fully loaded 737 reaches V1 in approximately 40 seconds. But since you’d be situated about 1.2 km from the aircraft when it starts the takeoff run you need to subtract the time it takes for the sound to reach you, which is around four seconds. Subtract reaction time from that and you’re left with 35 seconds. And you probably want around five seconds of margin. So 30 seconds effective time to travel 500 meters.

You're clutching at straws now. You could move the drone when ATC give the clearance to roll, you don't need "5 seconds margin", and you don't need to send the drone 500 meters because you'd have to cross all the public roads and buildings in between.

A stinger missile has a 3kg warhead, so let’s assume that’s what it must carry.

Maybe, but a Stinger isn't a contact missile. I'm guessing that we want to simply set off a large explosion near a fast-moving aircraft and we want to do it in the easiest place, on the ground. 3kg, fine.

I bet what would happen is that they blow the nose gear off and the plane comes to a halt at the end of the runway. Everyone walks away. Unless your drone carries a massive bomb, but then why would you go after an aircraft when you could just send your drone to the parliament?

You'd be hoping to hit the cockpit or the wings, I imagine. Even the tailplane (the nosegear doesn't have control until late in the stopping phase). If you hit a wing root you'll spill a lot of fuel very messily and might even incapacitate the wing enough to roll the aircraft if the speed's over 60mph-ish.

Parliament is another likely target, but in this case we're discussing a drone over an airport and how to "best" use it.

 

[Famine]

So 30 seconds effective time to travel 500 meters.

That's 37mph. Coincidentally the top speed of the DJI S900 (albeit unladen) and within easy reach for loads of drones without even getting to the 100mph+ racing drones...

Also you don't need to wait to hear the plane winding up. A radio scanner is pretty common equipment among plane enthusiasts who hang around airfields...

You can’t get that close to the runway. 400 meters seems to be the closest you can get, considering that aircraft don’t take off at the very end of the last piece of tarmac there is.

What if I told you that you could be on a public road within 220m of the centre of the south runway - and, as you can see, the perimeter road that gets you even closer isn't exactly secure against intrusion. Get a van on false plates into the Gate Gourmet car park (you'd only need to watch the traffic going into and leaving the site for a few days) and you're golden.

 

[daan]

That's 37mph. Coincidentally the top speed of the DJI S900 (albeit unladen)

Is the DJI S900 African or European?

 

[Famine]

Is the DJI S900 African or European?

Hmm, I don't knowaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!

 

[Robin]

Some news outlets reporting that it's a environmentalist group, although I don't know how they could possibly be sure of this.

If it is I hope the eco warriors know where and how the nickel, lithium and other rare earth materials that went into the construction of that drone were mined!

 

[Dotini]

Flummoxed cop tech not up to the job.

Speculation suggests arrogant genius at work.

Gatwick recently issued consultation plans for a second runway, leading to the suspicion the drones were part of a stunt by environmental campaigners.

However, no organisation has claimed responsibility.

Experts believe the pilot is highly-skilled and using expensive industrial drones with a range of five miles or more.

One of the UK’s top drone experts said cops hunting the pilot could be getting the runaround from “a genius” showing off his intelligence.

Ex-Army captain Richard Gill, CEO of dronedefence.co.uk, said the technical know-how used suggested whoever is behind it could be educated to PhD level.

Mr Gill said: “Perhaps we are dealing with a person who just wants to do it to show how clever they are.

“He or she is just causing hell because they can and they want to test their limits. It’s the thrill of getting away with it.

“To have evaded police radar for so long suggests some serious capability.

“For example, if they have adapted a drone and put a 3G card to fly it through phone-waves rather than radio waves to avoid capture they would need a masters degree or a PhD.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8023028/gatwick-shut-drone-eco-warrior-cops-army-mi5/

 

[TenEightyOne]

Flummoxed cop tech not up to the job.

Speculation suggests arrogant genius at work.

Using 3/4/5G comms doesn't need a PhD, it just needs a wallet. The wallet is used to feed the original creators who are paying off their PhDs.

 

[eran0004]

That's 37mph.

In average speed. But you want time to accelerate the drone. The minimum average acceleration needed is 2.2 m/s^2 (and a top speed of 33 m/s). The faster you can accelerate, the lower the top speed can be. At infinite acceleration the top speed could be as low as 37 mph.

You're clutching at straws now. You could move the drone when ATC give the clearance to roll, you don't need "5 seconds margin", and you don't need to send the drone 500 meters because you'd have to cross all the public roads and buildings in between.

With ATC clearance you need even more margin, because then you have no idea when the plane is actually going to reach your position. It could be 10 seconds after your drone has arrived.

Given that the goalposts have moved from colliding with an aircraft to merely bombing the runway you don’t need ATC communication at all. Just fly to the runway, drop the bomb, fly away and wait for a plane to take off.

Why make it more complicated than it needs to be?

 

[Famine]

In average speed. But you want time to accelerate the drone.

And, as I said, 37mph is well, well below the speeds commercial drones can reach. Racing drones can hit 160mph+. Wind the power pack and motors up - it's not like you need the battery life - and 37mph average over 200m is well within the performance envelope.

With ATC clearance you need even more margin, because then you have no idea when the plane is actually going to reach your position. It could be 10 seconds after your drone has arrived.

You can fly drones in live first person from on-board cameras and even in VR. This isn't a logistical problem.

 

[Robin]

 

[Danoff]

They've just released a photo (below) of the drone operator. Apparently he has a heart condition.

 

[Famine]

Daily Mail don't need no stinkin' apostrophes and hyphens...

 

[Johnnypenso]

Persons of interest identified. (no specifics)

 

[Danoff]

This thread got me wondering whether we're going to see a drone flying around the field during the superbowl to disrupt the game. Or one carrying a package of explosives up over stadium walls and into the crowd (or at an open-air concert).

 

[TenEightyOne]

This thread got me wondering whether we're going to see a drone flying around the field during the superbowl to disrupt the game. Or one carrying a package of explosives up over stadium walls and into the crowd (or at an open-air concert).

This is something that's been discussed for quite a long while (article from 2016). They're already a problem for British prisons in terms of over-the-fence contraband deliveries. That's why I'm mystified by the airport's inability to respond. I would have thought they would already be a big customer of anti-drone technology. Well, I guess they are now.

EDIT: Flights suspended again (17:37 UK) due to new sightings. Somebody's got what my grandmother would have called "a brass neck".

 

[Northstar]

This thread got me wondering whether we're going to see a drone flying around the field during the superbowl to disrupt the game. Or one carrying a package of explosives up over stadium walls and into the crowd (or at an open-air concert).

The stadium one is actually a good idea to make some money. Concessions for half the price, and delivered to your seat!

 

[Ryanswannell]

Quite amazing that a £300+ piece of plastic and metal can cause so much disruption.

 

[Barra333]

This thread got me wondering whether we're going to see a drone flying around the field during the superbowl to disrupt the game. Or one carrying a package of explosives up over stadium walls and into the crowd (or at an open-air concert).

I heard a discussion about on TV last night. They said it is infinitely easier to control the relatively small airspace over a stadium for a very defined time than an giant airport 24/7.

 

[Populuxe]

Daily Mail don't need no stinkin' apostrophes and hyphens...

Or spell-checkers. "Drone Done system"

 

[Danoff]

I heard a discussion about on TV last night. They said it is infinitely easier to control the relatively small airspace over a stadium for a very defined time than an giant airport 24/7.

I really don't how. Do they have snipers ready to pick off drones from any side? At every game and concert? I don't think so. Is the stadium equipped with jamming equipment? Flying one of these in over the walls, at night, with a package, seems pretty tough to stop.

 

[Tornado]

Why make it more complicated than it needs to be?

Yes, why are you making it more complicated than it actually is? You talk about moving goalposts in a discussion where you've put arbitrary caps on how drones can be flown, how fast they can fly and how much of a payload they can carry, how hard it is to launch them, how visible they are and how close you can get to an airport without being noticed in a context where an airport runs right along a regular street.

 

[Dotini]

EDIT: Flights suspended again (17:37 UK) due to new sightings. Somebody's got what my grandmother would have called "a brass neck".

That's kind of mind-blowing and revelatory in the face of state-of-the-art defensive measures deployed by multiple agencies! This surely is no ordinary drone operation.

 

[Danoff]

EDIT: Flights suspended again (17:37 UK) due to new sightings. Somebody's got what my grandmother would have called "a brass neck".

I feel like this was the moment the differentiates being able to get away with it vs. getting caught.

 

[TexRex]

Os spell-checkers.

That's awkward.

 

[Dotini]

Daytime and nighttime video of Gatwick UFO/drone.