Global supply chain woes hint paradigm shifts

  • Thread starter Dotini
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Again, the problem, like the overall economy, is highly complex. The vessels are taking an average of 7 days to unload because:
a. There is a backlog which is getting worse because there are a lot of vessels with cargo waiting to be unloaded at ports that were already stretched to capacity.
b. As vessels are delayed at their previous port of call their window to dock is closed or pushed forward.
c. There are so many in-bound containers that the ports are running out of places to put them or they're being put in wrong locations causing them to go "missing" in their inventory system.
d. The ports are now running late night shifts to pull containers but many business or warehouses aren't open to receive them.
e. That means in turn truckers have to pre-pull containers and bring them to a secure yard for temporary storage.
f. Meaning that the importers are then faced to pay staff of workes over time rates to unload at night or pre-pull charges and further per-diem charges if the empty containers are not brought back in time.
g. Not to mention that most of the ports have a dire lack of chassis or chassis that are in poor condition, meaning that often even when containers are available, and there are drivers ready and willing to pull them, there are not enough empty chassis to load containers onto.
h. The ports are so overloaded and containers are being stored where they are difficult to get to, meaning truckers are sometimes waiting 5+ hours at the ports to pull containers. (Many of these drivers are being paid PER delivery and not by the hour. So a driver that used to pull and make 3 local deliveries per day can now only pull one, MAYBE two and is earning a lot less). So a lot of drivers are quitting the container racket.
i. There is a lack of drivers, specifically container drayers, because NOBODY wants to do that job, for all of the aforementioned reasons.

And I saw this article the other day which I found shocking (although, not REALLY shocking).

Truckers can't work because they can't pass a P-test

The lack of automation, poor long term strategic planning, union cronyism with the ILA labor, has hurt most ports in the United States over the last 30+ years. But it's more apparent at times like these. Think of container logiisitics it like the baggage collection system at a major airport. It's never great. But then you have a dozen planes all land at once and it's chaos with bags falling off and clogging the conveyor.

The thing is, a lot of the main stream media is focused on the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Probably because combined together, they represent almost 40% of the in-bound container traffic to the US. But the ports of Oakland, Tacoma, Houston, New Orleans, Miami, Charleston, Norfolk & New York, ALL have huge issues and are suffering backlogs.

And then you have tools like this...

Come to Texas...

Poor Greg. Imagine being so out of touch that you don't even realize the 3rd biggest cargo port in the US (Houston) is currently so overloaded and over stretched that a lot of local container carriers in the port of Houston are telling their customers that there's a 3 week waiting list to pull containers. By which time, the importer will be responsible for thousands of dollars in demurrage.
 
Canada really knows how to handle a crisis:


I'm being serious too. I went to four stores the other day to find maple syrup (not that fake crap) and when I finally did a small bottle of it was $14.99. I've never spent $15 on maple syrup before, but I'll be damned if my waffles are dry. I sucked it up and bought it, but man did that hurt.

Also, never forget that there's a maple syrup cartel in Quebec and that it once was the target of the Great Canadian Maple Syrup Heist.
 
Canada really knows how to handle a crisis:


I'm being serious too. I went to four stores the other day to find maple syrup (not that fake crap) and when I finally did a small bottle of it was $14.99. I've never spent $15 on maple syrup before, but I'll be damned if my waffles are dry. I sucked it up and bought it, but man did that hurt.

Also, never forget that there's a maple syrup cartel in Quebec and that it once was the target of the Great Canadian Maple Syrup Heist.
I paid £6/$8 for a 250g bottle of Buckwud Organic a couple of days ago and I thought that was high so either the Québécois maple mafia is squeezing you like a plastic syrup bottle, or Tesco has a reserve of its own.

Admittedly it's not as resiny tasting as the syrup my brother and sister-in-law brought the last time they visited from Canada, so maybe it's not as "gud" as the label claims.
 
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Wait until the Welland Canal and Great Lakes close. Then we're really going to see supply chains get screwed. In a couple of weeks,big trouble.
 
Wait until the Welland Canal and Great Lakes close. Then we're really going to see supply chains get screwed. In a couple of weeks,big trouble.
How would the Great Lakes close? The only time shipping gets slower on the Great Lakes is when there's a long period of cold which doesn't happen all that often. Even then, they have ice breakers.
 
How would the Great Lakes close? The only time shipping gets slower on the Great Lakes is when there's a long period of cold which doesn't happen all that often. Even then, they have ice breakers.
I live about 5 miles from the Welland canal. All the shipping traveling through the Great Lakes passes through the Welland canal (to by pass Niagara Falls). Of course, some cargo may be unloaded at ports further West, but this isn't going to do much to help supply chain issues. The Welland canal typically closes Dec 31st (at which time they drain it to carry out routine maintenance), but apparently this year it will continue to be open until Jan 8th.

BTW: I just picked up a litre bottle of Canadian maple syrup from my local Costco. It cost $12.99 Canadian, which I believe is the same price it's been for the last few years.
 
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How would the Great Lakes close? The only time shipping gets slower on the Great Lakes is when there's a long period of cold which doesn't happen all that often. Even then, they have ice breakers.
What? Are you kidding me? A long period of cold. We're do you live? It's winter in Canada now. Yeah it's going to be a long period of cold for about 4 months. Having grown up beside the Welland canal,it freezes in the winter and is drained to prevent damage.How the hell do you think anything gets out of the Great Lakes. Through the Welland Canal. It hooks up to the St.Lawrence seaway through Lake Ontario.Hint the Great Lakes are fresh water. Fresh water freezes in the winter. Take a look at what goes through Welland Canal daily.
 
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I live about 5 miles from the Welland canal. All the shipping traveling through the Great Lakes passes through the Welland canal (to by pass Niagara Falls). Of course, some cargo may be unloaded at ports further West, but this isn't going to do much to help supply chain issues. The Welland canal typically closes Dec 31st (at which time they drain it to carry out routine maintenance), but apparently this year it will continue to be open until Jan 8th.

BTW: I just picked up a litre bottle of Canadian maple syrup from my local Costco. It cost $12.99 Canadian, which I believe is the same price it's been for the last few years.
Ah ok, that makes sense.

What? Are you kidding me? A long period of cold. We're do you live? It's winter in Canada now. Yeah it's going to be a long period of cold for about 4 months. Having grown up beside the Welland canal,it freezes in the winter and is drained to prevent damage.How the hell do you think anything gets out of the Great Lakes. Through the Welland Canal. It hooks up to the St.Lawrence seaway through Lake Ontario.Hint the Great Lakes are fresh water. Fresh water freezes in the winter. Take a look at what goes through Welland Canal daily.
I mean it's under my username with the flag next to it, but Utah. However, I lived in Michigan for 29 years. The Great Lakes typically don't freeze over and I believe Lake Michigan and Ontario haven't frozen over since they started keeping records. While shipping does slow down during the winter considerably and as @Adamgp pointed out the season is typically from March to January, it doesn't stop completely. However, most of the Lakers are due for maintenance during that time. Still, there's non-ocean going shipping still going on during that time and there are, I believe, 9 ice-breakers with funding that was just approved for another one.
 
Wait until the Welland Canal and Great Lakes close. Then we're really going to see supply chains get screwed. In a couple of weeks,big trouble.
If they're closed annually, surely anyone who would have a supply chain affected by the closure would know they shut and would've planned in advance? The current supply chain issues aren't new (as in overnight new) either so businesses know there's going to be potential problems and will have worked to mitigate that. I would've thought it'll be less big trouble and more like minor inconvenience.
 
Roo
If they're closed annually, surely anyone who would have a supply chain affected by the closure would know they shut and would've planned in advance? The current supply chain issues aren't new (as in overnight new) either so businesses know there's going to be potential problems and will have worked to mitigate that. I would've thought it'll be less big trouble and more like minor inconvenience.
Do you understand how much traffic goes through the Welland Canal? The Great Lakes don't usually totally freeze. I've lived in Southern Ontario my entire life. Yes there have been times when they have almost completely frozen over. Usually Lake Erie as it's the lowest of the Great Lakes. To much ice accumulates to break it up. Winds whip off Lake Huron,Lake Superior during the winter. No I don't think anyone is saying anything about it. It is a huge supply chain for Ontario,New York,Ohio, any City with connections to the Great Lakes.
 
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“'It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future'” is attributed to a baseball-playing philosopher, Yogi Berra...


This likely belongs here, and while I'm not about to watch some doomer crap, I can assume what it's about. When you shut down the global economy for several months, it will take time before an equilibrium is established. Couple that with Russia deciding to LARP as Nazi Germany and China doing China things like forcibly locking people in their homes for months, the problem lingers for longer. I have no doubt some parts of the world will feel the pinch, but in America we're good. Yes, some things will likely be more challenging to get, but I don't think we need to start becoming preppers over it. There will still be food, although you might not be able to get your favourite cereal or whatever.
 
This likely belongs here, and while I'm not about to watch some doomer crap, I can assume what it's about. When you shut down the global economy for several months, it will take time before an equilibrium is established. Couple that with Russia deciding to LARP as Nazi Germany and China doing China things like forcibly locking people in their homes for months, the problem lingers for longer. I have no doubt some parts of the world will feel the pinch, but in America we're good. Yes, some things will likely be more challenging to get, but I don't think we need to start becoming preppers over it. There will still be food, although you might not be able to get your favourite cereal or whatever.
This is one of the drawbacks of JIT (Just in Time) supply chains. When production is stopped for reasons above, this will happen.
 
I think we're in the midst of a shift towards not relying on globalism. Globalism will still exist, but I don't think anyone can now reasonably expect it to be reliable like it was before Covid. Industrial engineering is very likely going to be the hot degree to get in the coming decade. The US is gonna have to start making stuff at scale again - starting with damn semiconductors.
 
This is one of the drawbacks of JIT (Just in Time) supply chains. When production is stopped for reasons above, this will happen.
The Science Channel aired a three part documentary called "Out Of Stock" back in December I think and they explained the drawbacks to JIT when there is even a slight hiccup in the chain.


I work in the automotive industry and our situation is getting better slowly. New vehicle inventory is slowly increasing and the allocation numbers are looking better. The number of parts on backorder is dropping but a high increase in the number of vehicle collisions in our region is causing problems with crash parts, doors, hoods, fenders, bumper covers, etc. This would strain the supply chain in the best of times. Tires are so-so but tires have always been so-so.
 
I think we're in the midst of a shift towards not relying on globalism. Globalism will still exist, but I don't think anyone can now reasonably expect it to be reliable like it was before Covid. Industrial engineering is very likely going to be the hot degree to get in the coming decade. The US is gonna have to start making stuff at scale again - starting with damn semiconductors.
I'm not saying I disagree, because I don't. But I find this sad and concerning. Globalism is a strong force for peace, and specialization is the recipe for prosperity. You describe a scaling back of both, which means also weakening the forces for peace and prosperity.

Covid exposed some real issues. If an American company manufactures a ventilator in Europe, that company doesn't necessarily expect to have it seized en route to the US. Outsourcing your medical masks to china can be a big problem when your entire population needs one. All of the financial calculations have changed. Now there is some cost to globalization, whether it's because your plant is in russia, or it's because it's in a country that is still suffering from covid an can't get your products to you. Now all of the sudden it's safer and more reliable to have more local manufacturing.

I get it, I understand it. But it's one of the real penalties we'll pay for covid that isn't so much talked about - the penalty in rising geopolitical tensions and slower economic growth stemming from reduced reliance on international cooperation and trade.
 
I'm not saying I disagree, because I don't. But I find this sad and concerning. Globalism is a strong force for peace, and specialization is the recipe for prosperity. You describe a scaling back of both, which means also weakening the forces for peace and prosperity.

Covid exposed some real issues. If an American company manufactures a ventilator in Europe, that company doesn't necessarily expect to have it seized en route to the US. Outsourcing your medical masks to china can be a big problem when your entire population needs one. All of the financial calculations have changed. Now there is some cost to globalization, whether it's because your plant is in russia, or it's because it's in a country that is still suffering from covid an can't get your products to you. Now all of the sudden it's safer and more reliable to have more local manufacturing.

I get it, I understand it. But it's one of the real penalties we'll pay for covid that isn't so much talked about - the penalty in rising geopolitical tensions and slower economic growth stemming from reduced reliance on international cooperation and trade.
Wait...are you saying rabid nationalism doesn't promote peace and prosperity? I've heard otherwise!
 
Wait...are you saying rabid nationalism doesn't promote peace and prosperity? I've heard otherwise!
A dominant uni-polar rules-based global order founded on the US dollar and US strategic power may be the best foundation for global peace and prosperity. In a multi-polar world of strong and resurgent nationalism from states like China and Russia, we may have less peace and prosperity. It'll be fun finding out who's right.
 
I think we're in the midst of a shift towards not relying on globalism. Globalism will still exist, but I don't think anyone can now reasonably expect it to be reliable like it was before Covid. Industrial engineering is very likely going to be the hot degree to get in the coming decade. The US is gonna have to start making stuff at scale again - starting with damn semiconductors.

I'm not saying I disagree, because I don't. But I find this sad and concerning. Globalism is a strong force for peace, and specialization is the recipe for prosperity. You describe a scaling back of both, which means also weakening the forces for peace and prosperity.

Covid exposed some real issues. If an American company manufactures a ventilator in Europe, that company doesn't necessarily expect to have it seized en route to the US. Outsourcing your medical masks to china can be a big problem when your entire population needs one. All of the financial calculations have changed. Now there is some cost to globalization, whether it's because your plant is in russia, or it's because it's in a country that is still suffering from covid an can't get your products to you. Now all of the sudden it's safer and more reliable to have more local manufacturing.

I get it, I understand it. But it's one of the real penalties we'll pay for covid that isn't so much talked about - the penalty in rising geopolitical tensions and slower economic growth stemming from reduced reliance on international cooperation and trade.
I think we need to clarify what we mean by "globalism". Does globalism mean globalism, or does it mean "import 20% of the entire economy from China alone and 100% of semiconductors from Taiwan alone"? The latter in particular is not globalism and is the complete opposite of self-reliance to the point of stunting the largest economy in the world due to shortages. The amount of trade we have with China is also a massive strategic risk and it's embarrassing that it took really smart people this long to figure it out. There is only one explanation, corporate greed, and I'll be damned if a penny of it trickled down. All of America's biggest corporations are currently contributing to China's dominance and eventual decimation of the American economy and status quo and it needs to end. Surely they must know that they're going to lose their asses when their government goes off the rails and nationalizes foreign assets, just like Venezuela, just like Russia.

The United States and every business in it should constantly be seeking to dominate the global market for everything imaginable, barring things like resources which literally do not exist in our dirt. Anything less is unamerican.
 
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I think we need to clarify what we mean by "globalism". Does globalism mean globalism, or does it mean "import 20% of the entire economy from China alone and 100% of semiconductors from Taiwan alone"? The latter in particular is not globalism and is the complete opposite of self-reliance to the point of stunting the largest economy in the world due to shortages. The amount of trade we have with China is also a massive strategic risk and it's embarrassing that it took really smart people this long to figure it out. There is only one explanation, corporate greed, and I'll be damned if a penny of it trickled down. All of America's biggest corporations are currently contributing to China's dominance and eventual decimation of the American economy and status quo and it needs to end. Surely they must know that they're going to lose their asses when their government goes off the rails and nationalizes foreign assets, just like Venezuela, just like Russia.

The United States and every business in it should constantly be seeking to dominate the global market for everything imaginable, barring things like resources which literally do not exist in our dirt. Anything less is unamerican.
How very nationalist of you.

Importing semiconductors is globalism, and it's not something that makes China "dominant" or leads to "eventual decimation". You do understand that we (America) benefit from trade right? And I don't just mean because corporations hire people in America to do work, I mean because it gives us inexpensive semiconductors and reduces the costs of goods all over the board.

Trade is good. The country doing the manufacturing isn't the only country that benefits.
 
How very nationalist of you.

Importing semiconductors is globalism, and it's not something that makes China "dominant" or leads to "eventual decimation". You do understand that we (America) benefit from trade right? And I don't just mean because corporations hire people in America to do work, I mean because it gives us inexpensive semiconductors and reduces the costs of goods all over the board.

Trade is good. The country doing the manufacturing isn't the only country that benefits.
I highlight those specific examples because they are the core of the ridiculous economic supply problems the entire planet is suffering right now. Like 75% of the globe's supply of semiconductors comes from Taiwan which has proven to be a horrible idea, and to make it spicier China wants to absorb all of that within their borders. Trade is great, yes. But trade of extremely valuable resources concentrated in a single country on the brink of existence is not, particularly when their neighbor doesn't use the tightest mason jars.

It could be argued that the concentration of semiconductor production within Taiwan is actually the only reason Taiwan still exists but that level of strategic thinking is above my pay grade.
 
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Are car prices where you live up 35% from just a year ago with 8 to 12 month long waiting lists even for affordable cars? Used 2020 models are being sold at profit from their original sticker price.
 
R3V
Are car prices where you live up 35% from just a year ago with 8 to 12 month long waiting lists even for affordable cars? Used 2020 models are being sold at profit from their original sticker price.
Yes or worse.

Some personal experience from today - escalation in the construction industry is outta control right now. The contractors I've talked to recently (and seen pricing from) are saying it's the highest they've ever seen. 2% per month across the board in some cases (that figure is typically 2% per year). Hollow metal doors are up 300% year over year. Refrigerant is up 80% year over year. Steel is up 15% just since January. To put that in perspective, it's very hard to do a construction project (time scales in the many months or years) when escalation is this high. I've heard that vendors are not committing to prices until the products are on the truck to the jobsite. This is not normal. Many (most?) construction projects are done on a model of GMP - guaranteed maximum price. This is usually a figure estimated/calculated towards the end of the design phase. With escalation as high as it is, GMP as a working concept might not be tenable because contractors will be losing their shirts on cost overruns. The construction industry is one of the slowest moving industries that exists and it seems to be just now that the global supply crunch is catching up with it. It's gonna kill a lot of projects I have a feeling, unfortunately.
 
I highlight those specific examples because they are the core of the ridiculous economic supply problems the entire planet is suffering right now. Like 75% of the globe's supply of semiconductors comes from Taiwan which has proven to be a horrible idea, and to make it spicier China wants to absorb all of that within their borders. Trade is great, yes. But trade of extremely valuable resources concentrated in a single country on the brink of existence is not, particularly when their neighbor doesn't use the tightest mason jars.
Businesses take varying degrees of risk.
 
One might think that viable sovereign nations should be able to feed themselves, but that does not seem to be the case. More evidence is adduced that food has been weaponized as an integral component in routinized global conflict. Could it be that starvation kills more people than bullets and bombs?

 
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