Global Warming/Climate Change Discussion Thread

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Which of the following statements best reflects your views on Global Warming?


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New EPA Report: Duh!

http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/04/17/greenhouse.gas.hazard.epa/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

Greenhouse gases pose health hazard, EPA says

(CNN) -- WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Six heat-trapping gases that contribute to air pollution pose potential health hazards, the Environmental Protection Agency said Friday in a landmark announcement that could lead to regulation of the gases.

The gases -- carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride -- have been the subject of intensive analysis by scientists around the world, the EPA said. The U.S. Supreme Court ordered the EPA's scientific review in 2007.

"This finding confirms that greenhouse gas pollution is a serious problem now and for future generations," EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson said in a release, later adding, "The science clearly shows that concentrations of these gases are at unprecedented levels as a result of human emissions, and these high levels are very likely the cause of the increase in average temperatures and other changes in our climate."

The EPA's finding now goes into a public comment period.

The report, titled "Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change on Regional U.S. Air Quality: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Ground-Level Ozone," is the culmination of a study started in 2000, the EPA said.

The White House moved quickly to try to squelch any concerns that the EPA would immediately issue any regulations concerning the gases.

"The president has made clear his strong preference that Congress act to pass comprehensive legislation rather than address the climate challenge through administrative action," White House spokesman Ben LaBolt said. "That's why the president has repeatedly called for a bill to provide for market-based solutions to reduce carbon pollution and transition to a clean-energy economy that creates millions of green jobs."

The EPA announcement comes amid efforts by Congress to enact a limit on global warming pollution.

The House Energy and Commerce Committee is scheduled to begin hearings next week on a comprehensive energy and climate bill, called the American Clean Energy and Security Act.

Committee Chairman Henry Waxman is said to want the bill out of committee by Memorial Day, which falls on May 25, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she wants to bring the bill to the House floor for a vote this year.

Environmentalists hailed the EPA's announcement, with the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund calling it a "historic step ... [that] formally determined that global warming pollution 'endangers' the nation's human health and well-being."

"The U.S. is taking its first steps as a nation to confront climate change," said Vickie Patton, deputy general counsel at the environmental advocacy group. "Global warming threatens our health, our economy, and our children's prosperity. EPA's action is a wake-up call for national policy solutions that secure our economic and environmental future."

But critics say the finding will just produce a "glorious mess."

"Today's action by the EPA is the beginning of a regulatory barrage that will destroy jobs, raise energy prices for consumers and undermine America's global competitiveness," said Sen. James Inhofe, R-Oklahoma, the ranking member on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. "It now appears EPA's regulatory reach will find its way into schools, hospitals, assisted living facilities and just about any activity that meets minimum thresholds in the Clean Air Act."

The EPA notes in an accompanying report released Friday that global warming could make ozone pollution worse in some parts of the United States. Future ozone management decisions may have to take into account the possible effects of global warming, the report says.

"Climate change, along with other aspects of global change, including changes in population, land use and the technologies employed for energy production and transportation, may alter the capacity for U.S. states to successfully attain the national air quality standards in the future," the report concludes.

Ground-level ozone is formed when sunlight causes a chemical reaction in the air between nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds emitted by motor vehicles and industrial plants. Ozone levels are typically higher on sunny days in areas that have many vehicles or smoke-stack industries.

Global warming also could increase the number of days with weather conditions conducive to forming ozone, potentially causing air quality alerts earlier in the spring and later in the fall, the report says.

In addition to health problems, the report says global warming could lead to increased drought, more heavy downpours and flooding, and more frequent and intense heat waves and wildfires. Global warming could also cause a greater rise in sea level, more intense storms and harm to water resources, agriculture, wildlife and ecosystems, the report said.

Let's make sure we are clear on this.

  1. Global warming causing "The Day After Tomorrow" scenarios is bad for your health.
  2. Ozone is bad for your health.
  3. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride are all bad for your health.

Have I been living in the future or something? I was told this when I was in elementary school. I figured if locking myself in a garage with a car running could kill me that those exhaust fumes are probably bad for your health.

How much of my money did they spend on this?
 
Ozone is bad for your health, but the awesome stuff that gets rid of Ozone is bad for your health as well? Man, its like Alien vs. Predator.
 
Check this out:

A new NASA study informs us that clean air regulations have prevented sulfates (from coal and oil) from entering the atmosphere, and sulfates have a net cooling effect. The sulfates offset the effect of black carbon (from diesel and biofuel.) Way to go, EPA!

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warming_aerosols.html

It just goes to show that we don't know enough about our climate, to start trying fixing things that we aren't even sure need fixing, especially as we don't know the consequences of trying to fix, and that our fixing is potentially harmful.

They just need to induce a few volcanoes into erupting in non-populated places. That'd do the trick.

Yeh, how about yellowstone?

...oh wait. :D
 
One day, its melting, the other day its expanding. Different sources say different things, its not surprising people don't trust the information they are given. Presumably it has a lot to do with fluctuations of sea ice levels, is there anyone one source which accurately describe the trends of global sea ice levels of the course of a decade or so. I read so many conflicting articles, I am not sure which to trust.
 
One day, its melting, the other day its expanding. Different sources say different things, its not surprising people don't trust the information they are given. Presumably it has a lot to do with fluctuations of sea ice levels, is there anyone one source which accurately describe the trends of global sea ice levels of the course of a decade or so. I read so many conflicting articles, I am not sure which to trust.

Fully reading Joey's article shows they are talking about a different pole. The arctic (north pole) is the one getting the most recent scare mongering. The antarctic (south pole) recently had scare mongering because the ice shelf is breaking off. But this study is saying that the other part of Antarctica is actually increasing its ice and experiencing cooling.

Basically, what I can take from this is that there may actually be some climatic balance in warming and cooling/melting and freezing but because each study refuses to acknowledge the other they just talk about their own thing. Someone somewhere needs to put it all together and give as an actual polar analysis.
 
It's important to avoid making broad conclusions from limited evidence - the situation in Antartica is complex and defies a simplistic analysis... the way Antartica responds to changes in global climate can only be described in terms of a regional effect, and as such, drawing conclusions about global climate from what is happening in Antartica alone is not valid. The general assumption seems to be "If the globe is warming, then Antartica should be losing ice uniformally" - but that isn't true, and neither is the reverse: "If Antartica is not losing ice uniformally, then global warming cannot be happening". The best thing we can do is to stick to the facts, and not overplay any particular one simply because it supports one's own pre-conceived ideas of how we think that region should be behaving based on our own assumptions...

On a more general note about this debate, I'd caution against using phrases like "scare mongering" when talking about climate science - granted, the conclusions reached by many in the media and blogosphere, particularly by groups like Greenpeace, could be fairly described as overblown, but why is it that whenever a scientific study even remotely dares to suggest an atypical effect of warming, then it is branded "scare mongering"? The topic is complicated enough without also using loaded terms like this which insinuate that the sole aim of climate science is purely political - investigating whether there is a link between human activity and climate is a perfectly valid scientific question, yet merely asking this question is seemingly enough to warrant being unfairly branded a scare mongerer by those whose own political agenda is threatened by the possible answers to this fundamental question. In other words, if you insist on using emotive and biased expressions such as this, then do so with caution and don't expect to get away with it lightly.
 
It's important to avoid making broad conclusions from limited evidence - the situation in Antartica is complex and defies a simplistic analysis... the way Antartica responds to changes in global climate can only be described in terms of a regional effect, and as such, drawing conclusions about global climate from what is happening in Antartica alone is not valid.
I shall re-quote myself here.
Someone somewhere needs to put it all together and give us an actual polar analysis.
I didn't give favor to any one assumption made by the multiple studies, but rather said the need to be given a more macro analysis to actually determine what, if anything, we can truly determine from the ice. Granted, I did say that the most I could take from it all is that there may be more of a balance than either report is showing, but as I followed that statement with the one I quoted here I assumed it would be understood that my implication was that it needs to be looked at more to actually come to any conclusion.

The general assumption seems to be "If the globe is warming, then Antartica should be losing ice uniformally" - but that isn't true, and neither is the reverse: "If Antartica is not losing ice uniformally, then global warming cannot be happening".
However, since Al Gore's tactic is massive oceanic flash floods I think it is safe to say that if Antarctica is not having all its ice melt, and is in fact gaining some, then Al Gore is a tool.

On a more general note about this debate, I'd caution against using phrases like "scare mongering" when talking about climate science - granted, the conclusions reached by many in the media and blogosphere, particularly by groups like Greenpeace, could be fairly described as overblown, but why is it that whenever a scientific study even remotely dares to suggest an atypical effect of warming, then it is branded "scare mongering"?
So, "90% of arctic sea ice will melt within a decade" as a headline is not scare mongering, especially considering that it implies "Day After Tomorrow" scenarios?

I agree that I rarely see what could be described as scare mongering from scientists, but it is obvious that the media reports of those studies are loaded and given headlines to scare you into buying/clicking/watching/whatever gets them paid because you want to see what this dramatic thing is and/or means. Media and environmental activists have developed a clear pattern of exaggerating the effects of global warming in order to scare people into acting. It is the same tactic used by ripoff religious leaders to get people to donate money by scaring with stories of how every single world event is predicted in Revelations and is proof that the end of the world is coming soon.

It fits a near textbook definition of scare/fear mongering.

The topic is complicated enough without also using loaded terms like this which insinuate that the sole aim of climate science is purely political - investigating whether there is a link between human activity and climate is a perfectly valid scientific question, yet merely asking this question is seemingly enough to warrant being unfairly branded a scare mongerer by those whose own political agenda is threatened by the possible answers to this fundamental question.
So, by referring to people talking about 90% of arctic sea ice melting within a decade (which I posted the story here), when the actual study says that is an absolute worst case scenarios, as scare mongering it is unfair?

In other words, if you insist on using emotive and biased expressions such as this, then do so with caution and don't expect to get away with it lightly.
And as this looks like it may be an official warning I will drop it, but do not agree that I used the term out of definition.
 
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It's important to avoid making broad conclusions from limited evidence - the situation in Antartica is complex and defies a simplistic analysis... the way Antartica responds to changes in global climate can only be described in terms of a regional effect, and as such, drawing conclusions about global climate from what is happening in Antartica alone is not valid.

*cough* North Pole *cough*
 
And as this looks like it may be an official warning I will drop it, but do not agree that I used the term out of definition.
Sorry if I gave you that impression - it's not what I intended. Just to be clear, that was simply my personal opinion, so please consider it as such. What I meant was, as a fellow opinion thread poster, I will challenge the use of the phrase 'scaremongering' with regard to this subject because I think it is unfair...

I object to sensationalist reporting as much as anyone, but I also take exception to the consistent and deliberate use of negative phraseology that so-called climate skeptics use in order to portray anthropogenic global warming theory in a bad light. As such, I dislike the use of the term scaremongering, because it carries with it the implicit assumption that the skeptic is completely right, and that his prediction is somehow more accurate/valid than that of the alleged scaremongerer - a neat trick for someone who, by definition, argues that climate is inherently unpredictable!

The difficult task faced by climate scientists is that some of the predicted consequences of rapid warming - regardless of cause - really are quite scary. But just as it is not scaremongering to tell a smoker that they have lung cancer, it is not scaremongering to point out that the Arctic, in all likelihood, will be practically ice-free in summer by around 2040 (reference). The provisos (which should be remembered before any allegation of scaremongering are made) are that a) the predictions may turn out to be wrong and b) even if they are not wrong, we may be able to do something about it. Ironically, there are plenty of natural phenomena capable of causing massive and rapid changes in global climate that we really can't do anything about, but yet one mention that human activity is a climate driver and suddenly you're an alarmist! :sly:

For me, there is a massive difference between scaremongering (i.e. exaggerating or fabricating evidence to further one's own nefarious agenda) and making a "negative" prediction based on real observations and testable evidence, published in a rigorously peer-reviewed journal such as Science...
 
Tone is often hard to read and if your choices are between taking a mod overly serious or thinking they are just stating a personal opinion/thought I take the safe route. I like to think that I attempt to avoid causing trouble.

For me, there is a massive difference between scaremongering (i.e. exaggerating or fabricating evidence to further one's own nefarious agenda) and making a "negative" prediction based on real observations and testable evidence, published in a rigorously peer-reviewed journal such as Science...
As I see it:

Scaremongering: "The Arctic will be ice free within a decade."
Not scaremongering: Arctic ice study actually saying that it is possible it will be ice-free by 2040, and an extreme possibility is 10ish years.

Scaremongering: Al Gore and his group(s) using every ice melting story to prove "The Day After Tomorrow" is totally cereal, and asking us to invest in energy credits in order to prevent it.
Not Scaremongering: Scientists say East Antarctic ice is melting but the much larger West Antarctic ice is not.

I do try to draw a line and in this instance I was referring to the Telegraph article I posted as it was the only one listed in this thread. I believe any article headline designed to be sensationalized in a way to cause you to click on the article (ad hits = money), or have you believe it to be fact if you don't click, is a form of scare mongering. Is it the same as "terrorists are gonna getcha if you don't vote for me?" No. But whether it is for monetary gain, to push an agenda, or just to snag your vote it is a form of it.

I rarely blame the scientists and often when I find issue with the findings or the report I have said that I want to see the analysis beyond what the media translated/filtered.

That's not to say that I don't have a red flag raised on every scientific analysis with a possible sensational outcome that ends with them in some form saying they can't be sure without more research (money). In that instance I figure they are not doing their job by not finding the natural conclusion before publishing or they are saying they ran out of money and have tried to scare up more.

Similarly, I often find the scientists who disagree with the anthropogenic global warming theory have their reputations threatened by people attempting to attach them to the oil companies or Republicans.
 
Tone is often hard to read and if your choices are between taking a mod overly serious or thinking they are just stating a personal opinion/thought I take the safe route. I like to think that I attempt to avoid causing trouble.
You have no problem there 👍

That's not to say that I don't have a red flag raised on every scientific analysis with a possible sensational outcome that ends with them in some form saying they can't be sure without more research (money). In that instance I figure they are not doing their job by not finding the natural conclusion before publishing or they are saying they ran out of money and have tried to scare up more.
I understand why you might think this, but the truth is that science doesn't always have a "natural conclusion" - theories evolve and change as more facts are discovered, but there is always room to ask more questions, and while new facts are waiting to be discovered all the time, theories are, by definition, never going to be "complete". It sounds almost defeatist to say that, but that's not what I mean - the alternative, total ignorance, is considerably worse. Most published science is merely a single piece of a much larger jigsaw, and rarely (if ever) is a paper published that is the definitive "final word" on an issue - the upside is that this means that the scientific literature is always bang up to date - the flipside is that it leaves science open to criticism that it is "incomplete" or "not settled". However, this criticism is not particularly justified since although a theory may never be "complete", the facts can be just as useful/informative as they stand...

In the case of climate science, the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is well supported by the facts, but yet other observable facts (like growing Antarctic ice) seem contrary to what one might expect from a planet that is supposed to be getting warmer... despite the presence of seemingly contradictory facts, however, AGW theory still predicts that Antarctica will soon begin to lose ice. One new explanation (to be published later this month) for growing Antarctic ice is the change in weather/wind patterns over the continent attributable to changes in stratospheric ozone layer thickness, specific to the continent of Antarctica. The authors of this new paper also point out that Antarctic ice growth is still within the bounds of natural variability, but that this is unlikely to last much longer as the ozone layer is gradually replenishing, while GHG concentrations continue to rise unabated. (from here).

Science is an industry much like any other - competition is fierce, and yes, it is driven by money - but for some reason, when a climate scientist attempts to publicise their work, a common reaction from the general public is that they must be crooked. The irony is, when many of the top climate scientists say that "more research needs to be done", they aren't scouting for cash at all - somehow I don't think James Hansen would be working in WalMart next month if he failed to get another grant. But it is not an unfair question to ask "why?" is there such suspicion and mistrust of climate scientists? The answer, in my opinion anyway, lies in establishing who the most vocal critics are and what their agenda is. Much in the same way that Evolution is attacked by religious groups, climate science finds its most vocal critics in the oil industry or from the ranks of free market economy think-tanks for obvious reasons...

Similarly, I often find the scientists who disagree with the anthropogenic global warming theory have their reputations threatened by people attempting to attach them to the oil companies or Republicans.

... that said, I do not deny that there are plenty of reputable scientists with legitimate reasons to question the views of the IPCC (like Roger Pielke Sr.), but it would be naive to say that the global warming debate was simply a "scientific" controversy.... Climate science increasingly encroaches into political and economic territory, and as a result, the political opposition is arguably far more responsible for the public misunderstanding of climate science than the actual scientific critics. I don't think that it is legitimate or fair to brand a skeptic as being an oil industry lackie, but by the same token, they do exist (Steve Milloy for example).

The scientific community does not possess a monopoly on the public understanding of science, and well-funded front groups and politically motivated spin doctors are just as able to influence the public as scientists are these days. Although I accept that AGW theory really is more of a real scientific controversy than the phony "debate" about evolution, the evolution debate has opened my eyes to the reality of just how far some people will go in using disinformation in order to foment doubt and further their own political agenda.
 
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I understand why you might think this, but the truth is that science doesn't always have a "natural conclusion" - theories evolve and change as more facts are discovered, but there is always room to ask more questions, and while new facts are waiting to be discovered all the time, theories are, by definition, never going to be "complete". It sounds almost defeatist to say that, but that's not what I mean - the alternative, total ignorance, is considerably worse. Most published science is merely a single piece of a much larger jigsaw, and rarely (if ever) is a paper published that is the definitive "final word" on an issue - the upside is that this means that the scientific literature is always bang up to date - the flipside is that it leaves science open to criticism that it is "incomplete" or "not settled". However, this criticism is not particularly justified since although a theory may never be "complete", the facts can be just as useful/informative as they stand...

In the case of climate science, the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is well supported by the facts, but yet other observable facts (like growing Antarctic ice) seem contrary to what one might expect from a planet that is supposed to be getting warmer... despite the presence of seemingly contradictory facts, however, AGW theory still predicts that Antarctica will soon begin to lose ice. One new explanation (to be published later this month) for growing Antarctic ice is the change in weather/wind patterns over the continent attributable to changes in stratospheric ozone layer thickness, specific to the continent of Antarctica. The authors of this new paper also point out that Antarctic ice growth is still within the bounds of natural variability, but that this is unlikely to last much longer as the ozone layer is gradually replenishing, while GHG concentrations continue to rise unabated. (from here).

Science is an industry much like any other - competition is fierce, and yes, it is driven by money - but for some reason, when a climate scientist attempts to publicise their work, a common reaction from the general public is that they must be crooked. The irony is, when many of the top climate scientists say that "more research needs to be done", they aren't scouting for cash at all - somehow I don't think James Hansen would be working in WalMart next month if he failed to get another grant. But it is not an unfair question to ask "why?" is there such suspicion and mistrust of climate scientists? The answer, in my opinion anyway, lies in establishing who the most vocal critics are and what their agenda is. Much in the same way that Evolution is attacked by religious groups, climate science finds its most vocal critics in the oil industry or from the ranks of free market economy think-tanks for obvious reasons...
Maybe it is a language issue that you can clear up for me then, because I will see sensationalized news stories, sometimes even front page stuff, and if you take the time to follow a link to the research, or find it yourself, you see that the study ends with something like, "these are just preliminary results and further reasearch will be necessary." The use of the word preliminary tells me the research isn't complete, or the findings are far from conclusive.

And it isn't just climate science, it is anything that makes big headlines.

So, when they use the term preliminary is that their way of saying they are done and any further research should be done by someone else or that they aren't done themselves?

If they are still doing research then it tells me that they are doing one of three things; 1) making a name for themselves, 2) looking for more money, or 3) feel that it is so important that they ant the information out there before they can even be sure they are proposing the correct course of action. Passion in science is good, but not if it causes someone to jump the gun. It makes me think of HG Wells' "Food of the Gods."

... that said, I do not deny that there are plenty of reputable scientists with legitimate reasons to question the views of the IPCC (like Roger Pielke Sr.), but it would be naive to say that the global warming debate was simply a "scientific" controversy.... Climate science increasingly encroaches into political and economic territory, and as a result, the political opposition is arguably far more responsible for the public misunderstanding of climate science than the actual scientific critics. I don't think that it is legitimate or fair to brand a skeptic as being an oil industry lackie, but by the same token, they do exist (Steve Milloy for example).
For me the problem with climate change science is that it proposes large sweeping changes that can affect economies. If there is any legitimate evidence that says it may be different then those are big risks to take. In pharmaceutical science making a decision without fully conclusive results can lead to the deaths of individuals. A rash decision here could collapse entire industries.
 
You have no problem there 👍


I understand why you might think this, but the truth is that science doesn't always have a "natural conclusion" - theories evolve and change as more facts are discovered, but there is always room to ask more questions, and while new facts are waiting to be discovered all the time, theories are, by definition, never going to be "complete". It sounds almost defeatist to say that, but that's not what I mean - the alternative, total ignorance, is considerably worse. Most published science is merely a single piece of a much larger jigsaw, and rarely (if ever) is a paper published that is the definitive "final word" on an issue - the upside is that this means that the scientific literature is always bang up to date - the flipside is that it leaves science open to criticism that it is "incomplete" or "not settled". However, this criticism is not particularly justified since although a theory may never be "complete", the facts can be just as useful/informative as they stand...

In the case of climate science, the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is well supported by the facts, but yet other observable facts (like growing Antarctic ice) seem contrary to what one might expect from a planet that is supposed to be getting warmer... despite the presence of seemingly contradictory facts, however, AGW theory still predicts that Antarctica will soon begin to lose ice. One new explanation (to be published later this month) for growing Antarctic ice is the change in weather/wind patterns over the continent attributable to changes in stratospheric ozone layer thickness, specific to the continent of Antarctica. The authors of this new paper also point out that Antarctic ice growth is still within the bounds of natural variability, but that this is unlikely to last much longer as the ozone layer is gradually replenishing, while GHG concentrations continue to rise unabated. (from here).

Science is an industry much like any other - competition is fierce, and yes, it is driven by money - but for some reason, when a climate scientist attempts to publicise their work, a common reaction from the general public is that they must be crooked. The irony is, when many of the top climate scientists say that "more research needs to be done", they aren't scouting for cash at all - somehow I don't think James Hansen would be working in WalMart next month if he failed to get another grant. But it is not an unfair question to ask "why?" is there such suspicion and mistrust of climate scientists? The answer, in my opinion anyway, lies in establishing who the most vocal critics are and what their agenda is. Much in the same way that Evolution is attacked by religious groups, climate science finds its most vocal critics in the oil industry or from the ranks of free market economy think-tanks for obvious reasons...



... that said, I do not deny that there are plenty of reputable scientists with legitimate reasons to question the views of the IPCC (like Roger Pielke Sr.), but it would be naive to say that the global warming debate was simply a "scientific" controversy.... Climate science increasingly encroaches into political and economic territory, and as a result, the political opposition is arguably far more responsible for the public misunderstanding of climate science than the actual scientific critics. I don't think that it is legitimate or fair to brand a skeptic as being an oil industry lackie, but by the same token, they do exist (Steve Milloy for example).

The scientific community does not possess a monopoly on the public understanding of science, and well-funded front groups and politically motivated spin doctors are just as able to influence the public as scientists are these days. Although I accept that AGW theory really is more of a real scientific controversy than the phony "debate" about evolution, the evolution debate has opened my eyes to the reality of just how far some people will go in using disinformation in order to foment doubt and further their own political agenda.


You know, I'm not sure I disagree with a single word of that... and yet, I feel like there's one enormous aspect of this story that is left out.

This field is in its infancy. Compared to evolutionary science, climate science is barely blip on the radar. The shear lack of modeling and predictive capability is fairly astounding. Climate science still hasn't answered some extremely basic questions about forcing effects on global temperature.

I'm not one to trust by default. When a new scientific field crops up and wild claims are thrown around, I'm likely to say "show me you know what you're talking about" rather than "OMG the sky is falling". So far I'm not impressed with our understanding of the phenomenon relative to the claims made. We're talking about a system with Earth-sized complexity. This is cross disciplinary research at its finest. No one scientist can see the entire picture (though they seem to enjoy drawing conclusions as though they could). In order to fully grasp the situation yourself you'd have to be an expert in the development and internal structure of stars, orbital dynamics, chaotic heat transfer and fluid dyanmics, geology, optics, biology, chemistry, particle physics, and more. If you wanted to take that knowledge and make a policy recommendation (which many of these scientists do), you'd have to be an economist, you'd have to know how to accurately forecast human technology, you'd have to be able to predict human consumption changes based on market influences, and you'd need to be a lawyer - or at least have an intimate knowledge of the principles and theory of government.

Any of one those would be a worthy pursuit for an entire lifetime - instead, we have to bring together results from all of those fields (and more I'm sure) and attempt to come up with an understanding of perhaps one of the most complex systems we've ever studied. I'm not saying its impossible. Quite the contrary, I don't think there's any question that we will be successful in this endeavour. But before I start trusting that the conclusion from this increadibly complex feild of study, I need proof that we're standing on solid ground.

After 1998 the temperature was supposed to go nowhere but up (after all, that's what it had been doing for 10 years - pretty safe conclusion). Since then it has gone nowhere. In 1998, how many climatologists were predicting relatively flat temperatures for 10 years? And when I say relatively flat, I mean the temperature has been bouncing around by a significant percentage of the total observed "anomaly".

Before I start trusting scientists when they predict that florida will be underwater in 6 months, I need to stop seeing them have to change their forecasts every year (by huge percentages, somtimes much larger than 100%) in order to fit the latest data. Before I start trusting that fossil fuels are causing hurricanes, I need to stop seeing hurricane predictions that are off by 100% of the observed value. Before I'm going to be on board with crippling the already stymied economies of the developed world, I'm going to need extremely convincing proof, including years of accurate predictions.

...and no, the shotgun approach doesn't do it for me. If you take a thousand climatologists each with their own wildly different prediction curve, and one of them happens to fit the data - that's not good enough. And no, general consensus that the climate will get hotter after it has been for 10 years is not particularly impressive. Especially when the prediction turns out to be wrong for the next 10 years.

As I've said many times before, I'm not convinced that it isn't us. I'm not convinced that we're innocent and that global warming is a myth. But until I'm convinced otherwise, I won't support the drastic, poorly thought through, borderline irresponsible solutions that are currently being presented.
 
So, when they use the term preliminary is that their way of saying they are done and any further research should be done by someone else or that they aren't done themselves?

If they are still doing research then it tells me that they are doing one of three things; 1) making a name for themselves, 2) looking for more money, or 3) feel that it is so important that they ant the information out there before they can even be sure they are proposing the correct course of action. Passion in science is good, but not if it causes someone to jump the gun.
Perhaps it is better to view scientific research as on-going, and published papers as periodical updates - in terms of the factual content contained in a paper, the timing of the publication of a paper is largely irrelevant. In terms of the "correct course of action", however, I'd argue that most scientific papers only allude to what their results might mean, and rarely (if ever) make explicit recommendations about policy. That is not the principle reason for publishing a paper - the principle reason is to put the facts out there, and that's it. Granted, some climate scientists are also necessarily involved in the business of influencing policy (the IPCC for example), hence these scientists are accused by skeptics of fiddling their own data in order to fit with their politics - a very contentious claim indeed.

FK
For me the problem with climate change science is that it proposes large sweeping changes that can affect economies. If there is any legitimate evidence that says it may be different then those are big risks to take. In pharmaceutical science making a decision without fully conclusive results can lead to the deaths of individuals. A rash decision here could collapse entire industries.
Strictly speaking, the science doesn't propose sweeping changes, merely that the science is being used by policymakers to influence policy.

The assumption here is that "sweeping changes" (or indeed any policy designed to reduce our collective influence on the climate) will ultimately prove more damaging to the world's economy than doing nothing, but I'd argue that this is far from a safe assumption. Also, deals on climate are by no means the only way to collapse entire industries... there is every possibility that taking no action at all is as likely (if not considerably more so) to produce global economic and social turmoil... for example, agriculture and water supply are obviously crucial to the global economy (and, perhaps more importantly, national security), and these two areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. As such, although I fully appreciate the importance of the global economy, it is by no means the only priority (let alone the top one).

Ultimately, both critics and supporters of AGW theory mostly want the same thing economically and socially - to avoid risking future prosperity. The climate will change whether or not we have anything to do with it, and whether or not it suits human society. But the challenge for us is to ascertain whether or not our activities are influencing the climate, or hastening our approach into uncomfortable climatic conditions - the evidence so far suggests that this is exactly what we are doing (and as Omnis's post a few days ago reminds us, we're not doing it on purpose....)

@ Danoff, I don't disagree with much of what you say either, especially about demanding greater clarity on the predictive power of models etc., and I wish I had more time today to respond to your post more fully, but for the time being I would just like to say about this point:

This field is in its infancy. Compared to evolutionary science, climate science is barely blip on the radar.
This may well be true, but it doesn't make modern climate science unreliable - the space program was in its infancy in 1969 and yet man still landed on the moon! Climate science today is armed with tools that climate scientists of the 50's, 60's and 70's could only have dreamed about - satellites, supercomputers, and access to every scientific journal in the world from the comfort of your own desk.
 
It's important to avoid making broad conclusions from limited evidence

Sound and logical advice that can and should be applied to many other discussions. :)


As far as the poll is concerned though I voted for
  • Global warming is occurring and human activity is the main cause
Not because that matches my opinion, but my only other closest choice was that human activity is only playing a minor role... which I also don't believe is true. While I do think we have been and continue to play a significant role in *Global climate change, I also believe a lot has to do with the aspects about this planet and our solar system, our galaxy, and even our universe that we unfortunately either do not fully understand and or are currently not advanced enough as a culture to control. :nervous:

* Global Warming is somewhat misleading, as evidence by how many people love to dismiss it every time it gets cold. :)
 
My problem is that minor and major are relative... minor/major compared to what? Compared to vulcanism? Compared to the sun? Compared to changes in the sun's output? Compared to other biological sources?
 
What is with Obama's science guys and their nutty global warming remedies?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5389278/Obamas-green-guru-calls-for-white-roofs.html

Obama's green guru calls for white roofs
President Obama's energy adviser has suggested all the world's roofs should be painted white as part of efforts to slow global warming.

By Louise Gray, Environment Correspondent
Last Updated: 1:33PM BST 27 May 2009


Professor Steven Chu, the US Energy Secretary, said the unusual proposal would mean homes in hot countries would save energy and money on air conditioning by deflecting the sun's rays.

More pale surfaces could also slow global warming by reflecting heat into space rather than allowing it to be absorbed by dark surfaces where it is trapped by greenhouse gases and increases temperatures.

The Nobel Prize-winning physicist said the US was not considering any large scale "geo-engineering" projects where science is used to reverse global warming, but was in favour of "white roofs everywhere".

He said lightening roofs and roads in urban environments would offset the global warming effects of all the cars in the world for 11 years.

"If you look at all the buildings and if you make the roofs white and if you make the pavement more of a concrete type of colour rather than a black type of colour and if you do that uniformally, that would be the equivalent of... reducing the carbon emissions due to all the cars in the world by 11 years – just taking them off the road for 11 years," he said.

The three day Nobel laureate Symposium will end in a memorandum that is likely to influence any international agreement on climate change at the end of this year in Copenhagen.

Environmentalists insist the developed world must commit to cutting carbon emissions in order to set an example for poorer countries.

Secretary Chu said he was optimistic the US could lead the way through energy efficiency measures and boosting the use of renewables like solar, wind, nuclear and clean coal.

"The US will move, inevitably it will move first, as a more developed country we should be moving first, and I hope China will follow," he said.

The symposium has gathered some 60 scientific experts and 20 Nobel Laureates to talk about climate change.

The high level meeting, hosted by the Royal Society and the Prince of Wales, is likely to influence any international agreement on climate change at the end of this year.

Is this guy serious? So, one Obama guy wants to use different pollution and this guy wants to paint roads and roofs white.

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but would this really do anything? By this rationale it seems like snowy climates should have a negative carbon footprint during the winter.
 
What is with Obama's science guys and their nutty global warming remedies?

Yeah, I know! It's not like he is some kind of Nobel Prize-winning physicist after all... oh wait. NM. ;)


I miss the good old days of Government when we had Oil & Gas Lobbyists editing scientific reports on global warming and then published by the White House, and appointing a well known lobbyist for the mining, oil, and gas industries, as the new Deputy Interior Secretary, giving Griles broad authority over national parks, national monuments, wildlife refuges, and Bureau of Land Management lands.... yeah that was a fantastic choice.

In fact, I can't think of a better choice to head FEMA than a lawyer and commissioner for Arabian horse breeders... yeah, I'm still not sure why that ended in disaster. :odd:

Or how about when we had an outspoken OB/GYN "pro-lifer" who refuses to prescribe contraceptives to unmarried women and wrote the book "As Jesus Cared for Women" appointed to head the FDA.

Oh, and let's not forget the appointment of someone who was convicted on multiple felony counts for conspiracy, obstruction of justice, perjury, defrauding the government, and the alteration and destruction of evidence pertaining to the Iran-Contra Affair (which were reversed on appeal simply on technical grounds) to head DARPA... yeah, that was a fine choice.

Not to mention all the great Bush appointees that resigned over their involvement in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal... Yeah those were good times in deed. :)

What this country needs is another Alberto Gonzales for Attorney General... and another Paul Wolfowitz as Deputy Secretary of Defense... yeah those were the good old days. :nervous:

Griles, Brown, Norton, MacDonald, Poindexter, Gonzales, Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld, Ashcroft, Whitman, Thompson, Abraham, Perle... yeah those were indeed the good old days.

:indiff:
 
Yeah, I know! It's not like he is some kind of Nobel Prize-winning physicist after all... oh wait. NM. ;)
If he can disagree with multiple Nobel-Prize winning economists, I can disagree with one Nobel-Prize winning physicist's one idea.

List all the appointees you want, because I will most likely agree. I have made it no secret that I don't like either party.

I do like that Chu supports the use of nuclear energy, but this idea seems like an off-the-cuff remark said at a conference without much fore-thought.
 
List all the appointees you want, because I will most likely agree. I have made it no secret that I don't like either party.

I was just having some fun over the notion of calling a Nobel Prize-winning physicist as just an "Obama science guy"... as if he was some unknown and unqualified hack. :)

And like you, I have no love for either party, nor do I have any love for the Libertarian party and especially the Green party. I am proudly independent and have been since the first time I was able to vote, which was 25 years ago. :eek:

In fact, until Dubya cured me of it, I mostly voted for republican candidates, at least in terms of political positions where they have direct impact on economic issues. However I often voted for democratic candidates for political positions where they have direct impact on social issues.

Obviously many positions in Government impact both, and those have always been the more difficult for me to decide who to support.

Basically I'm fiscally conservative and socially liberal... which is why I typically gravitate towards moderate republicans and democrats.




I do like that Chu supports the use of nuclear energy, but this idea seems like an off-the-cuff remark said at a conference without much fore-thought.

Some of the greatest ideas that have had significant impact on our lives were undoubtedly looked at and judged by some in the same way when they were first considered.

I personally am not a Nobel Prize-winning physicist, but I do have some very highly respected physicists in my family so I'll send them an email and see what they think.

However, from a layman's point of view I can see how it might make perfectly good sense. After all, the biggest problem with the melting polar ice caps and glaciers isn't the loss of ice which some think is what mostly keeps the Earth cool. The critical role the ice caps have on our global temperature is reflecting much of the sun's heat rather than absorbing it due to the white surface of the snow and ice.

That said, I personally think we already screwed the pooch, and missed our opportunity to really have a positive impact on Earth's climate by a few years, and that we have likely past the tipping point, and no known remedy is going to reverse things... only slow global warming down... but I suspect in my children's lifetime they will witness a massive change in our planet, and see much of the land that is comfortably inhabited now becoming entirely uninhabitable... and with it, the relocation of hundreds of millions of people around the world... and the loss of life on a biblical scale. :nervous:

Naturally I hope I'm wrong!
 
So... wheres the page about the current global cooling we are under?
I don't buy the "current global cooling" idea. Critics of global warming theory don't consider 150 years a long enough time period to establish a warming trend, so how the period from 1998 to the present day can be long enough to establish a cooling trend is beyond me - especially considering that 11 of the past 12 years were the hottest since reliable measurements began in 1860...

As for the "painting ceilings white" idea - I don't know whether to laugh or cry. It is a simple and (in theory anyway) workable idea, but it smacks of desperation. Sadly, that is probably what we are facing - having to consider both the ridiculous and the extreme... I'll be the first to say that whatever steps are taken to mitigate the warming effects caused by human activity, they inherently carry almost as much risk as not doing anything, hence it is only sensible to be extremely skeptical of any intervention methods that may be considered. But, when you put the threat into perspective, the reality is that we may indeed be faced with being forced to make some decision either way. A new study published in Nature a few weeks ago showed that without any change in policy toward GHG emissions, and no intervention on behalf of the international community to tackle climate change, we are looking at > 90% probability of a minimum of 3 degrees C rise in global mean temperature before 2100. Even with drastic measures, the probability of keeping rises below 2 degrees C are very low... a view shared by the vast majority of climate scientists today.
 
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A new study published in Nature a few weeks ago showed that without any change in policy toward GHG emissions, and no intervention on behalf of the international community to tackle climate change, we are looking at > 90% probability of a minimum of 3 degrees C rise in global mean temperature before 2100. Even with drastic measures, the probability of keeping rises below 2 degrees C are very low... a view shared by the vast majority of climate scientists today.

The scary thing is that a global mean temperature change of just 2 degrees C would be catastrophic. :nervous:

Because our temperature range is so great throughout the day, let alone the year, people take for granted just how sensitive our environment is to a change of just one degree C to our global mean temperature.
 
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A new study published in Nature a few weeks ago showed that without any change in policy toward GHG emissions, and no intervention on behalf of the international community to tackle climate change, we are looking at > 90% probability of a minimum of 3 degrees C rise in global mean temperature before 2100.

Impressive that they think they can map such a complex system out to 90 years.
 
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