Global Warming/Climate Change Discussion Thread

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Which of the following statements best reflects your views on Global Warming?


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@RC45 I am only going to address the points you make, but feel free to ask more things. This post is going to be source light since most of it understanding the concepts and I don't have the time to look for them right now. For background, one of my PhD supervisors was on the IPCC, and I currently work at an institute which does a lot of paleo-climate research.
What will the weather be in Cape Town South Africa next Thursday? How about Turkey in 2024? What was the weather on July the 1st 1745 in Cambodia?

None of the above questions can be answered with any amount of certainty above "a chance".
You are confusing weather with climate. Weather is what happens on a given day, climate is an average thing. There are ways of telling whether 1745 might have been a warm one though. These are called proxies. Basically, a (generally sediment from the sea floor) sample will be taken as a core, which allows a historical time series to be taken. There are certain organisms that hold isotopes of elements like oxygen, and carbon in very specific ratios depending on the sea level temperature at the time it lived. By knowing what these figure are at known sea temperatures, CO2 concentrations or something else allows us to infer the temperature at certain unknown sample points, which can be dated using a variety of means.
All your peer reviewed research has no way of measuring or predicting HUMAN influence on the climate at a planetary level in the past, in the present or in the future.

This is even supposing it is possible for HUMAN activity on the earth to have planetary wide affects - then if thi swhere accepted that there would be anything that could be done to reverse it.

The key here is "at the planetary level".

MMGW on a planetary scale is not even remotely feasible - never has been and never will be. we don't even have enough global nuclear arsenal to match a volcano - again, "planetary scale" is key here, yet your peer reviewed research will have us believe man is changing the climate (not just weather) on a planetary scale?

What utter tripe.
They are some huge claims you have made there. Of course we can't predict what we will do in the future, but the proxies I mentioned above give us a good idea of the past. The historic CO2 concentrations are measured from ice cores collected in the Arctic and Antarctic - gas bubbles are trapped in the ice and then measured as the ice is defrosted in a controlled environment. Dates are measured independently on other parameters, such as carbon isotopes. Now that we know what the CO2 levels in the past were, we can hook them up to the measurements taken from Hawaii, which is used as a global average, since it is a long way from major pollution sources, and is at quite a high altitude. Lets have a look at how that all lines up:


upload_2015-12-5_17-22-56.png


We had nothing to do with that, right? Just a coincidence that the spike is at the same time as we really started burning through the fossil fuels? Since CO2 is a greenhouse gas, it traps radiant heat in the atmosphere, warming the whole place up. Im not going to do your work for you, but pick a few countries (ie Australia, US, somewhere in Europe) and look up record high temperatures. I can bet that most of the records were set in the 2000's, despite records (observations, not inferences) going back 100 years+ in many places.

I hope this answers your questions. Sorry it took me so long to post, some things happened at home (you're Premium - go see the Announcement thread).
 
Climate fear mongers have been predicting we will alternatively freeze by [insert arbitrary date in 15 years time] then we will boil by [insert arbitrary date in 15 years time] then freeze again then drown when the seas rise etc. etc.

This nonsense has been published since the early 1970's and not a single prediction has even been close. The earth doesn't need humans to survive, it survived a long time before we arrived and will be around a long time after we have all died out - as all species eventually do!!!!

The reality is that human activity has no ability to alter systems on a planetary scale.

The pure arrogance of such an idea is laughable.

Or are we to believe that a hand full of desert dwelling tribes altered the entire North African region 3000 years ago.

Or maybe a hand full of Inuit's influenced those Greenland glaciers to expand and recede over eons...


All the climate change fear mongering pie in the sky pseudo science aside, the sheer cost of and destruction to the global economy that trying to meet these arbitrary emission reductions will bring will be felt by the little people that climate change disciples think they will be saving.

Quality of western life will be reduced, quality of the life around the rest of the 3rd and 4th world will never be improved, people will die from starvation as food production is slowed to "save the planet" and the wealthiest industrialists will simply keep getting richer....

But, hey, the MMGW disciples will "feel good" 'cause they "at least did something".

MMGW cheerleaders will go down in history as the most gullible bunch of fools ever - and you know what, the Al Gore's and their descendants will still be flying around in the Gulf Stream jets, living in those 20 room mansions at the coast, the sea levels will not have risen and the polar ice caps will not have melted - and when these events take place, they will happen in spite of human presence not because of human presence.
 
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Climate fear mongers have been predicting we will alternatively freeze by [insert arbitrary date in 15 years time] then we will boil by [insert arbitrary date in 15 years time] then freeze again then drown when the seas rise etc. etc.

This nonsense has been published since the early 1970's and not a single prediction has even been close. The earth doesn't need humans to survive, it survived a long time before we arrived and will be around a long time after we have all died out - as all species eventually do!!!!

The reality is that human activity has no ability to alter systems on a planetary scale.

The pure arrogance of such an idea is laughable.

Or are we to believe that a hand full of desert dwelling tribes altered the entire North African region 3000 years ago.

Or maybe a hand full of Inuit's influenced those Greenland glaciers to expand and recede over eons...


All the climate change fear mongering pie in the sky pseudo science aside, the sheer cost of and destruction to the global economy that trying to meet these arbitrary emission reductions will bring will be felt by the little people that climate change disciples think they will be saving.

Quality of western life will be reduced, quality of the life around the rest of the 3rd and 4th world will never be improved, people will die from starvation as food production is slowed to "save the planet" and the wealthiest industrialists will simply keep getting richer....

But, hey, the MMGW disciples will "feel good" 'cause they "at least did something".

MMGW cheerleaders will go down in history as the most gullible bunch of fools ever - and you know what, the Al Gore's and their descendants will still be flying around in the Gulf Stream jets, living in those 20 room mansions at the coast, the sea levels will not have risen and the polar ice caps will not have melted - and when these events take place, they will happen in spite of human presence not because of human presence.

If there's a GTP award for most rubbish post of the year, this should be a contender.

You know, I was ready to type up a long angry rant about the absolute arrogance and rudeness you've shown in discussions in this section (with this thread being a particular highlight, where after @Barra333 very respectfully attempted to address your points you decided to post your rant again addressing absolutely none of his points, and without irony make a lot of claims without bothering to back them up with evidence or proof), but the way your attitude has been, maybe there's not much point.

Besides, if I did try and argue why I think your posts regardless of argument have been unpleasant to read, maybe that would be doing your homework for you? And I wouldn't want to be here to spoon feed you now, would I?

Unbelievable.


Apologies to everyone else who now has to sit through my garbage as well; hope you can understand why I'm peeved......
 
The reality is that human activity has no ability to alter systems on a planetary scale.

The pure arrogance of such an idea is laughable.

No... the hypothesis that human activity can alter climate systems is what is being tested through observation, experiment and theory. To assume that you already know otherwise is, well, pure arrogance.

One thing is for sure - the Earth's ability to accommodate our activity will undoubtedly surprise us and is currently beyond our full understanding - notwithstanding a tiny elite like yourself who somehow seem to know otherwise.

Our understanding of how human activity may or may not influence climate starts with asking questions and not rushing to make assumptions about what is and what isn't possible.
 
I love how swallowing the propaganda of the fossil fuels industry is somehow not gullible. :rolleyes:
 
DK
I love how swallowing the propaganda of the fossil fuels industry is somehow not gullible. :rolleyes:
It's been said, with truth, that the business of America is business.

So it's understandable that we answer to rich, powerful men who provide us with prosperity, fuel and chemicals.

We have traditionally looked down upon academics, impoverished weaklings with glasses and pointy heads, who provide only generalized, scary warnings about our risky behaviors.
 
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I'm going to give being patient one more try. If you don't bother reading this post (or even my previous one, I'm not going to waste any more time on typing any more out. I do expect some credible academic sources to any further claims of yours too.
Climate fear mongers have been predicting we will alternatively freeze by [insert arbitrary date in 15 years time] then we will boil by [insert arbitrary date in 15 years time] then freeze again then drown when the seas rise etc. etc.
This nonsense has been published since the early 1970's and not a single prediction has even been close.
Any examples? While there examples of fear mongers who are after publicity, at least their (sometimes over the top) claims are extrapolations based on real science, whereas the skeptics just plant their head in the sand.

I know you were trying to make it sound like an absurd possibility, but there are scenarios where it is completely possible to trigger an ice age by screwing with the atmosphere - it involves the gulf stream failing and most of Europe (which is only as warm as it is because of the gulf stream) getting a lot colder.
The earth doesn't need humans to survive, it survived a long time before we arrived and will be around a long time after we have all died out - as all species eventually do!!!!
You are right, the Earth will soldier for a few billion years more, but the discussion here is about how we are making a mess of it.
The reality is that human activity has no ability to alter systems on a planetary scale.

The pure arrogance of such an idea is laughable.

Or are we to believe that a hand full of desert dwelling tribes altered the entire North African region 3000 years ago.

Or maybe a hand full of Inuit's influenced those Greenland glaciers to expand and recede over eons...
@Touring Mars already touched on this, but did you even look at the graph I posted? There has been natural growth and retreat of glaciers over time, and the Sahara was once wet, but the rate of the change was over tens of thousands of years, not 150 years. That can only have been us. See the last couple of pixels in that graph? Yeah, the line is vertical.
The African tribes didnt change the climate, but humans have influenced things for a long time. Australia used to have 6ft tall wombats and 10ft kangaroos until 40,000 years ago when the newly arrived aborigines hunted them to extinction.
All the climate change fear mongering pie in the sky pseudo science aside, the sheer cost of and destruction to the global economy that trying to meet these arbitrary emission reductions will bring will be felt by the little people that climate change disciples think they will be saving.
That is an insult to every scientist out there. It is not pseudo science, and you make yourself look like a fool for trying to call it that.
Let me tell you about peer review, which all of the climate change literature has been subject to. A scientist does some measurements on a sample, interprets the results and tries to publish it in the most influential journal possible, the top of which are the two journals 'Science' and 'Nature'. The more influential the journal, the tougher it is to get your stuff published. It is reviewed by other scientists, who can be real jerks, but in a fair way by critically questioning the work. Anything that doesn't seem right to them goes back to the authors to justify further or explain. The sheer volume of measurements supporting this climate stuff is crazy, so if there was any question to the accuracy of the measurements or interpretation of them, we would know about it by now. Actually, there is very little interpretation to be done to get the CO2 graph above - they are direct measurements using a well accepted technique.
This peer review (almost always) stops the garbage getting through, and when it fails, it leads to things like the vaccine-autism thing. That all came from one, since discredited paper that slipped through. Look at the mess that made - science doesn't want that, hence the peer review system.

While the emissions targets are a little arbitrary, the point is that the world's leaders have almost universally agreed that can't carry on business as usual. They felt that this is important enough that the biggest gathering of world leaders in history met in Paris last week to discuss it, despite what happened there recently.
The cost of doing nothing outweighs the cost of trying to limit the damage. Hundreds of scientists from multiple disciplines (IPCC) and dozens of world leaders agree (which costs them money now, instead of putting it off until after they out of office), but you know better than them, right?
Quality of western life will be reduced, quality of the life around the rest of the 3rd and 4th world will never be improved, people will die from starvation as food production is slowed to "save the planet" and the wealthiest industrialists will simply keep getting richer....

But, hey, the MMGW disciples will "feel good" 'cause they "at least did something".

MMGW cheerleaders will go down in history as the most gullible bunch of fools ever - and you know what, the Al Gore's and their descendants will still be flying around in the Gulf Stream jets, living in those 20 room mansions at the coast, the sea levels will not have risen and the polar ice caps will not have melted - and when these events take place, they will happen in spite of human presence not because of human presence.
Irrelevant to what we are actually talking about. Not going to bother replying to that rant.
 
(1)While the emissions targets are a little arbitrary, the point is that the world's leaders have almost universally agreed that can't carry on business as usual. They felt that this is important enough that the biggest gathering of world leaders in history met in Paris last week to discuss it, despite what happened there recently.
(2)The cost of doing nothing outweighs the cost of trying to limit the damage. Hundreds of scientists from multiple disciplines (IPCC) and dozens of world leaders agree (which costs them money now, instead of putting it off until after they out of office), but you know better than them, right?
These are 2 extremely important points that are some of the pivotal details you are over looking - you go to great lengths to claim the peer review data is back checked and double reviewed and extremely accurate and that the science is on target --- yet the solution is allowed to be an arbitrary politically expedient set of rules and regulations that guarantee reelection to the political elite and profit to the corporations that will run these earth saving schemes, that scientists are then beholden to for funding.

Can you not see the obvious conflict of interest and bias?

Who determined the cost of doing nothing outweighs the cost of limiting damage that has not yet been linked to activities? The very some corporate and political entities that helped fund the science in the first place.

Follow the money, the folks manipulating "the settled science" will be cashing in on the front and back ends and the rest of the working world is made to pay for it by way of taxation.

RC45
Quality of western life will be reduced, quality of the life around the rest of the 3rd and 4th world will never be improved, people will die from starvation as food production is slowed to "save the planet" and the wealthiest industrialists will simply keep getting richer....

But, hey, the MMGW disciples will "feel good" 'cause they "at least did something".
Irrelevant to what we are actually talking about. Not going to bother replying to that rant.
Another really important point you gloss right over.

If not to improve the human experience and lot in life, why be so hell bent on saving the planet? Are MMGW zealots just radicals that view man as a parasite on mother earth?
 
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It seems your head is still in the sand with regard to climate change itself, since you are hung up on the social aspects of the result.
Of course the emissions thing is arbitrary, there are politicians involved. The scientists of the IPCC would have come up with a number that needs to be met, while the politicians would have pushed back, as that would have been too expensive too meet, so a middle ground is reached.

With regard to the cost of doing nothing - the government of Kiribati have made serious plans about where they move their entire country to in the case that the whole island goes under. If the mean sea level goes up by a metre, which is one of the possible situations - then you better move lots of Bangladesh, Miami, New York and truckload of other really big city. Is that going to be cheaper than putting a bit of money into making renewable energy a bit more efficient.

If we don't look after the planet a little bit, then there will most likely be hundreds of millions of people displaced by the end of this century, and who knows what after that. If you don't, or don't plan on having kids, then knock yourself out.
 
It seems your head is still in the sand with regard to climate change itself, since you are hung up on the social aspects of the result.
Of course the emissions thing is arbitrary, there are politicians involved. The scientists of the IPCC would have come up with a number that needs to be met, while the politicians would have pushed back, as that would have been too expensive too meet, so a middle ground is reached.
No, my head is not in the sand - it is in the clear oxygen (and other gases including CO2 needed to sustain life as we know it). The social aspects of the result are what we humans will have to contend with.

With regard to the cost of doing nothing - the government of Kiribati have made serious plans about where they move their entire country to in the case that the whole island goes under. If the mean sea level goes up by a metre, which is one of the possible situations - then you better move lots of Bangladesh, Miami, New York and truckload of other really big city. Is that going to be cheaper than putting a bit of money into making renewable energy a bit more efficient.
If the mean sea level goes up?? The mean sea level has gone up and down over time and in the window that man has been around, the response of man has been to migrate to and from these affected locations.

But more realistically the point is this:
What if after all the money and effort and huge changes to the human experience the result is the same - the sea rises anyway because the sun changes its energy release or some other huge planetary system change (over which we have no influence) occurs that negates all the effort humans have applied to try change a system we cannot influence anyway?

What then? We just laugh it off as better safe than sorry? We are talking about enormous geopolitical power and economy shifts that will make and break socially, segments of the global population, to what end?

If we don't look after the planet a little bit, then there will most likely be hundreds of millions of people displaced by the end of this century, and who knows what after that. If you don't, or don't plan on having kids, then knock yourself out.

And there it is, one of those fear mongering unsubstantiated claims I was talking about - 'most likely be' - these exact claims have been made since the 1970's. By the end of the century we are doomed, by 2010 we will be doomed - 2015 will see us all under water.

I have a family and a child, and that is why I do not want to see the HUMAN social elements destroyed by governments and science try to save 'the planet' that in the end did not need saving.

Want to really save the planet? Then stop the Chinese wholesale destruction of the global shark population for shark fin soup ingredients, stop the millions of acres of South American rain forest being slashed and burned to make way for fields of sugar cane for ethanol production - stop South East Asian rain forest slash and burning for coconut production - those are real tangibles.

But beating up on the western world that already has reduced emission levels to impractically low numbers in an effort to change climate systems we are not sure where changed by man in the first place will do nothing except injure fragile economies.

BTW, what should we make of the cooling/heating trends over the last 15 years that have not followed the peer reviewed models paraded around?

After all, it is 2015, weren't we all supposed to be succumbing to the global warming predicted in the 1980's and 1990's by now?
 
No, my head is not in the sand - it is in the clear oxygen (and other gases including CO2 needed to sustain life as we know it). The social aspects of the result are what we humans will have to contend with.
Of course CO2 is needed, but if you have too much, it it not very good for you. You can die from drinking too much water.
If the mean sea level goes up?? The mean sea level has gone up and down over time and in the window that man has been around, the response of man has been to migrate to and from these affected locations.
Like the CO2 levels, yes the sea level has gone up and down, but never at the rate that is being seen. Even in the past when it happened, the population was pretty transient and didn't have cities of many million that were under threat.

But more realistically the point is this:
What if after all the money and effort and huge changes to the human experience the result is the same - the sea rises anyway because the sun changes its energy release or some other huge planetary system change (over which we have no influence) occurs that negates all the effort humans have applied to try change a system we cannot influence anyway?

What then? We just laugh it off as better safe than sorry? We are talking about enormous geopolitical power and economy shifts that will make and break socially, segments of the global population, to what end?
We are talking about climate change brought on by things that are shown to be our fault - namely CO2 emissions at this point. We can't control the sun (but it is being monitored) or your other imaginary things, so I think you are clutching at straws here.
If you go out in the morning with an umbrella to stay dry, but step in a puddle and get wet anyway, are you an idiot for taking the umbrella?

And there it is, one of those fear mongering unsubstantiated claims I was talking about - 'most likely be' - these exact claims have been made since the 1970's. By the end of the century we are doomed, by 2010 we will be doomed - 2015 will see us all under water.
Here is an article in that journal, Science I was talking about earlier. Not sure whether you can see it or not, but luckily academic papers come with a TL;DR (abstract): (emphasis mine)
Science journal in 2007
A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre–Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per °C. When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.
Look at that, 1m is right in the middle of the prediction. The range come about from not knowing how we will act in the future. If we play nice, it might be on the low side, if we keep burning fossils fuels at the rate we are, maybe the reality will be on the high side. By the way, hyperbole is not well received in scientific writing, so that means the author was able to convince at least two fellow scientists (who may not have really liked him) that his prediction were founded in observations.

I have a family and a child, and that is why I do not want to see the HUMAN social elements destroyed by governments and science try to save 'the planet' that in the end did not need saving.

Want to really save the planet? Then stop the Chinese wholesale destruction of the global shark population for shark fin soup ingredients, stop the millions of acres of South American rain forest being slashed and burned to make way for fields of sugar cane for ethanol production - stop South East Asian rain forest slash and burning for coconut production - those are real tangibles.
I am not going to disagree about the Chinese, South American and SE Asian situations, but I am not sure that I can do much from where I am. I can, however, use public transport instead of driving, taking the more environmentally friendly options at the supermarket etc. I am not trying to say I am overall beneficial for the environment (I done well over my fair share of air travel), but I do what I can.

But beating up on the western world that already has reduced emission levels to impractically low numbers in an effort to change climate systems we are not sure where changed by man in the first place will do nothing except injure fragile economies.
Simple - the western world can afford to do more than the 3rd world - what are these impractically low levels you speak of?
BTW, what should we make of the cooling/heating trends over the last 15 years that have not followed the peer reviewed models paraded around?
Remember the extreme heat records I mentioned in my post at the top of the page?
After all, it is 2015, weren't we all supposed to be succumbing to the global warming predicted in the 1980's and 1990's by now?
Welcome to the Marshall Islands and Kiribati
Kiribati-Marshall-Islands-001.jpg
 
It's been said, with truth, that the business of America is business. So it's understandable that we answer to rich, powerful men who provide us with prosperity, fuel and chemicals. We have traditionally looked down upon academics, impoverished weaklings with glasses and pointy heads, who provide only generalized, scary warnings about our risky behaviors.
That's going in my sig for a while...classic.:lol:
 
Of course CO2 is needed, but if you have too much, it it not very good for you. You can die from drinking too much water.
Like the CO2 levels, yes the sea level has gone up and down, but never at the rate that is being seen. Even in the past when it happened, the population was pretty transient and didn't have cities of many million that were under threat.


We are talking about climate change brought on by things that are shown to be our fault - namely CO2 emissions at this point. We can't control the sun (but it is being monitored) or your other imaginary things, so I think you are clutching at straws here.
If you go out in the morning with an umbrella to stay dry, but step in a puddle and get wet anyway, are you an idiot for taking the umbrella?

Here is an article in that journal, Science I was talking about earlier. Not sure whether you can see it or not, but luckily academic papers come with a TL;DR (abstract): (emphasis mine)
Look at that, 1m is right in the middle of the prediction. The range come about from not knowing how we will act in the future. If we play nice, it might be on the low side, if we keep burning fossils fuels at the rate we are, maybe the reality will be on the high side. By the way, hyperbole is not well received in scientific writing, so that means the author was able to convince at least two fellow scientists (who may not have really liked him) that his prediction were founded in observations.

I am not going to disagree about the Chinese, South American and SE Asian situations, but I am not sure that I can do much from where I am. I can, however, use public transport instead of driving, taking the more environmentally friendly options at the supermarket etc. I am not trying to say I am overall beneficial for the environment (I done well over my fair share of air travel), but I do what I can.


Simple - the western world can afford to do more than the 3rd world - what are these impractically low levels you speak of?

Remember the extreme heat records I mentioned in my post at the top of the page?

Welcome to the Marshall Islands and Kiribati
Kiribati-Marshall-Islands-001.jpg

Where is the data that shows those few specific tidal events spread over a decade in the Marshall Islands are because of fossil fuels burned in Mexico City? The sea has not risen and flooded the Marshall Islands - to state as such is dishonest. Those are specific tidal and storm events.

Coastal locations are not permanent and are always subject to erosion and alteration over time - that is the nature of the planet.

Talk about clutching at straws and cherry picking events to match data.

2100 is 85 years from now.

Lets go back 85 years.

It would be 1930.

Have the worlds sea levels risen in any significant way since 1930 or just mm per decade?

After all, models do show that man has been killing the planet with fossil fuels since the industrial Revolution correct, yet the "deadly change" is always just 50 years in the future.
 
We've been researching the climate for more than 50 years - we've been studying it since the dawn of humanity. For thousands of years man has tried to predict the weather - and for thousands of years he has failed. Our climate models are still infantile compared to what they need to be. I attended a talk at a research lab that is doing a great deal of climate science by one of the worlds leading climate scientist during which he explained that we don't know if clouds contribute a net positive or negative influence on temperature.

They don't even know the sign.... clouds....

That's basic stuff. It reflects heat back into space and it traps heat in to the surface. You'd think if we understood things to the degree that so many people claim that we'd have figured out such a basic variable.

I'm resurrecting an almost six year old post to ask if anybody more familiar with the nitty gritty of climate science than I can shed some light on this. Or do we still not know the effect of cloud cover?
 
Lets go back 85 years.

It would be 1930.

Have the worlds sea levels risen in any significant way since 1930 or just mm per decade?

"Just mm per decade" is significant unless one completely misunderstands the dangers of warming and a sea level rise. Here are the rises drawn as lovely pictures.

After all, models do show that man has been killing the planet with fossil fuels since the industrial Revolution correct, yet the "deadly change" is always just 50 years in the future.

Really?
 
"Just mm per decade" is significant unless one completely misunderstands the dangers of warming and a sea level rise. Here are the rises drawn as lovely pictures.

Not really related to the point that you were replying to, but that sea level change graph is somewhat interesting. Just eyeballing it, it's more or less linear for the last 140 years. Or if you buy the article's cubic fit (which looks a lot like a random line drawn through a scatter plot to me), it has had alternating periods of slight acceleration and deceleration.

If you believe sources like these:

http://www.c2es.org/facts-figures/international-emissions/historical
http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/05/history-carbon-dioxide-emissions

...then anthropogenic carbon output is much, much higher in the last twenty years than it was from 1880-1900. We're talking ~25 times as much carbon dioxide output, and yet the sea level is still rising at more or less the same rate.

To me, that would indicate that the sea levels are either largely independent of the CO2 concentration, or there's a massive time lag in there (in which case it's probably not anything that humans did), or that we simply have no idea what's going on. Probably the latter.
 
Not really related to the point that you were replying to, but that sea level change graph is somewhat interesting. Just eyeballing it, it's more or less linear for the last 140 years. Or if you buy the article's cubic fit (which looks a lot like a random line drawn through a scatter plot to me), it has had alternating periods of slight acceleration and deceleration.

If you believe sources like these:

http://www.c2es.org/facts-figures/international-emissions/historical
http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/05/history-carbon-dioxide-emissions

...then anthropogenic carbon output is much, much higher in the last twenty years than it was from 1880-1900. We're talking ~25 times as much carbon dioxide output, and yet the sea level is still rising at more or less the same rate.

To me, that would indicate that the sea levels are either largely independent of the CO2 concentration, or there's a massive time lag in there (in which case it's probably not anything that humans did), or that we simply have no idea what's going on. Probably the latter.

There is indeed a "lag" but that window gets smaller and smaller as oceanic saturation is reached.
 
Not really related to the point that you were replying to, but that sea level change graph is somewhat interesting. Just eyeballing it, it's more or less linear for the last 140 years. Or if you buy the article's cubic fit (which looks a lot like a random line drawn through a scatter plot to me), it has had alternating periods of slight acceleration and deceleration.

If you believe sources like these:

http://www.c2es.org/facts-figures/international-emissions/historical
http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/05/history-carbon-dioxide-emissions

...then anthropogenic carbon output is much, much higher in the last twenty years than it was from 1880-1900. We're talking ~25 times as much carbon dioxide output, and yet the sea level is still rising at more or less the same rate.

To me, that would indicate that the sea levels are either largely independent of the CO2 concentration, or there's a massive time lag in there (in which case it's probably not anything that humans did), or that we simply have no idea what's going on. Probably the latter.

You will always find that the MMGW crowd have a reason why the science is settled, the last 30 million years matter little and the last 150 years industrial progress have doomed the planet.

Ironically, it if was not for the huge energy production and consumption then science and technology would not have had the fuel to be developed at the pace it was to reach the current point.

One has to ask are they really just wanting to force the planet to return the 15th century when everything was perfect.
 
You will always find that the MMGW crowd have a reason why the science is settled, the last 30 million years matter little and the last 150 years industrial progress have doomed the planet.

Ironically, it if was not for the huge energy production and consumption then science and technology would not have had the fuel to be developed at the pace it was to reach the current point.

One has to ask are they really just wanting to force the planet to return the 15th century when everything was perfect.

Er, whut?

It was a simple question, where do you suggest the carbon came from if the cause isn't anthropological?
 
There is indeed a "lag" but that window gets smaller and smaller as oceanic saturation is reached.

Wouldn't that be the other way around? Presumably the oceans are already at saturation for a given historical temperature. The temperature is rising, for whatever reason, so as the temperature rises more, the oceans will be outputting even more CO2 to add to the anthropogenic CO2.

As far as the sea level rise, I think it's probably fair to say that sea level rise in the 1880's wasn't caused by anthropogic CO2, given that there was stuff all anthropogenic CO2 around. If sea level rise in modern times is due to anthropogenic CO2, then there are questions that need to be answered. What was causing the rise before and why did it stop? When did the transition from "natural" causes to anthropogenic causes occur, and why is it so smooth?

It may be the case that modern sea level rises are primarily due to anthropogenic CO2. But to me, it looks a lot more like an educated guess than a solid theory backed by facts and logic. I could be wrong, and I welcome anyone providing the facts and logic to prove otherwise.
 
Er, whut?

It was a simple question, where do you suggest the carbon came from if the cause isn't anthropological?

Yes - it is a simple question... here is another, if it is and the only way to reduce this MMGW trend is to abandon all energy consumption, large scale farming and other modern processes, is that what needs to be done?

Will we need to reduce the global population and live leaner and meaner if that is the only way to 'save' the planet?

After all, the world back on 1450 seems to match the energy consumption and carbon footprint that would make MMGW proponents happy. Is that where we need to regress back to?
 
As far as the sea level rise, I think it's probably fair to say that sea level rise in the 1880's wasn't caused by anthropogic CO2, given that there was stuff all anthropogenic CO2 around. If sea level rise in modern times is due to anthropogenic CO2, then there are questions that need to be answered. What was causing the rise before and why did it stop? When did the transition from "natural" causes to anthropogenic causes occur, and why is it so smooth?

It may be the case that modern sea level rises are primarily due to anthropogenic CO2. But to me, it looks a lot more like an educated guess than a solid theory backed by facts and logic. I could be wrong, and I welcome anyone providing the facts and logic to prove otherwise.
You could start by providing some sources for your own facts before challenging others to prove you wrong e.g. what sea level rise in the 1880's are you talking about?

I also think you are making a false dilemma here - no-one is saying that any change in global climate is completely manmade... I would have thought that was obvious. The question is not whether this change or that change is natural or manmade (when it is always going to be either completely natural or a mixture of both) - it's a question of whether observable trends can be adequately explained via forcing mechanisms that do not include known anthropogenic forcings, such as GHG emissions, land-use etc.
 
Yes - it is a simple question... here is another, if it is and the only way to reduce this MMGW trend is to abandon all energy consumption, large scale farming and other modern processes, is that what needs to be done?

Will we need to reduce the global population and live leaner and meaner if that is the only way to 'save' the planet?

After all, the world back on 1450 seems to match the energy consumption and carbon footprint that would make MMGW proponents happy. Is that where we need to regress back to?

Maybe not that far... but definitely a contraction is in order if we're to keep living a somewhat modern lifestyle.

Let's face it. Resource-wise, we've exhausted much of the good, cheap, easy-to-burn fuel we've had available over the past few decades. We may have enough coal to last two to three more. We don't have enough oil to last much beyond that.

both-2014.png

If you exclude US fracking, it's pretty apparent that we've reached peak oil production. And even with fracking, word is the wells have a shorter half-life than the multi-decade wells in the Middle East (many suggest steep drop-offs in per-well output within the first two years), meaning we have to grind harder to keep increasing production.

We've had decades to transition to renewable energy (or, hell, at least nuclear fusion and/or breeder reactors) but we haven't, and possibly can't. So we're stuck with seven billion people who are aspiring to the American way of life, industries churning out disposable garbage as fast as it can (funny we have food issues when almost anyone nowadays can afford a sub-$100 smartphone), various political factions fighting furiously (via proxy) over the rights to dictate who sells what oil where, even in an oil-cheap environment, and a power-hungry economic machine that demands exponential growth to keep going.

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I'm not saying that socialism is the way. Or that the economy must grind to a halt. But we may not have seen the last bubbles burst yet. It's going to be a very rocky... or at least a very bear-ish... decade or two ahead. I think the plain and simple answer is: If we want to stay as rich as we are today, we better make sure that we don't have that many more mouths to feed tomorrow.

I think we know this subconsciously, otherwise how do you explain falling birth-rates in first-world countries? :D
 
Maybe not that far... but definitely a contraction is in order if we're to keep living a somewhat modern lifestyle.

Let's face it. Resource-wise, we've exhausted much of the good, cheap, easy-to-burn fuel we've had available over the past few decades. We may have enough coal to last two to three more. We don't have enough oil to last much beyond that.

both-2014.png

If you exclude US fracking, it's pretty apparent that we've reached peak oil production. And even with fracking, word is the wells have a shorter half-life than the multi-decade wells in the Middle East (many suggest steep drop-offs in per-well output within the first two years), meaning we have to grind harder to keep increasing production.

We've had decades to transition to renewable energy (or, hell, at least nuclear fusion and/or breeder reactors) but we haven't, and possibly can't. So we're stuck with seven billion people who are aspiring to the American way of life, industries churning out disposable garbage as fast as it can (funny we have food issues when almost anyone nowadays can afford a sub-$100 smartphone), various political factions fighting furiously (via proxy) over the rights to dictate who sells what oil where, even in an oil-cheap environment, and a power-hungry economic machine that demands exponential growth to keep going.

-

I'm not saying that socialism is the way. Or that the economy must grind to a halt. But we may not have seen the last bubbles burst yet. It's going to be a very rocky... or at least a very bear-ish... decade or two ahead. I think the plain and simple answer is: If we want to stay as rich as we are today, we better make sure that we don't have that many more mouths to feed tomorrow.

I think we know this subconsciously, otherwise how do you explain falling birth-rates in first-world countries? :D

Wow - so that's the reality then.

The desire to NOT have the world raised to the ultimate Western world level of lifestyle, the American way of life.

Good luck with selling that bucker of cr@p to the Chinese and India - we are off to save the planet, so you folks just go back to your village huts of the past.

Oil production levels reflect market price not reserves.

And the idea that the world is 30 years from running out of coal is utter nonsense.
 
The desire to NOT have the world raised to the ultimate Western world level of lifestyle, the American way of life.

Oh, okay.

Good luck with selling that bucker of cr@p to the Chinese and India - we are off to save the planet, so you folks just go back to your village huts of the past.

I'd be hoping for a better line on compromise from the experts. And when the Chinese were building some of the world's great architecture wasn't the USA just a twinkle in the Mayflower's eye? :)

Oil production levels reflect market price not reserves.

Sometimes true but of greater importance is the ability to stockpile.
 
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