GT5 Sales?

[TeamStig]

There's no doubting that Gran Turismo has been a very profitable franchise for Sony. Each game in the series has sold tremendously well, so it is easy to assume that GT5 will do the same. This feat is only magnetized when you consider that the first GT was intended to be a just a cult hit.

But times have changed. For the past two console generations, Sony has been on top, and by a long shot. They are now third, behind Microsoft which is trailing Nintendo by miles. Because the PS3's install base is smaller than its predecessors, there is a very good chance GT5 will be the worst selling game in the series.

There's something else to consider as well. When GT1 released, the market for console driving sims was virtually nonexistent. In 1998, Gran Turismo was somewhat of a novelty, a breath of fresh air. When GT3 released, it still didn't really have any competition to speak of. Since GT4's release, another franchise has started up and is already approaching its third entry. In terms of sales, Forza Motorsport has been the only console driving sim that could hold its own against Gran Turismo, and that says a lot.

Fast forward a couple of years and Polyphony no longer has the field to itself. Critics and casual players have appeared to be somewhat fed up with Gran Turismo, their main reasons being the series' lack of innovation compared to other games in the same genre as well as the frustratingly long development times. While this is not a position I agree with at all, it can't be ignored.

All of this said, Sony does have a few tricks up its sleeve. Snagging the WRC and NASCAR licenses was a brilliant move. For fans of either series GT5 will be their only option; the last WRC game released for the PSP in 2006, and for the time being EA has stopped developing annual NASCAR games. If Sony is smart enough to slap WRC and NASCAR logos on the GT5 box art they'll attract even more customers.

So now I ask, has Gran Turismo as a franchise seen its best days? Will GT5 sell as well as it's predecessors or end the streak? What do you guys think?

 

[DragonJM]

as gt5 will be an ps3 exclusive and the ps3 doesnt have such arcade game/sim yet i dont think gt5 will do badly maybe not so good as gt4 but dont forget alott of people are looking forward too this game.

 

[sumbrownkid]

Gran Turismo 5 will lag in sales compared to it's predecessors but as a franchise itself it will continue to be seen as the pioneer and forefront racing simulators of console gaming. I wouldn't be worried about Gran Turismo fizzle around like Need For Speed (God rest it's soul) did.

If anything, expect GT5 to demolish whatever stagnation the franchise had.

 

[Peter]

GT5 has created so much hye in the 5 years that everyone will be lining up to play.

 

[Soullessvessel]

Personally FM has sold me as a better game simply for it being more innovative then GT, the GT team is to stuck in their ways in doing things as they determine to be correctm or are just downright lazy with some things.

I omission of Reverse lights and tire marks is just plain laziness, simple as that, as well as the parade AI that has followed the series until GT5p...drivers finally seem to have there own mind to an extent...but its still fairly evident there is absolutely no excuse for it in this day in gaming. Firther more after some time with Rfactor and alot of time with Forza GT feels like it has vastly to much wheel spin.

Even looking at GT4/GT5p aside from graohics alterations it really doesn't feel all that diff to me then GT1 in terms of what I'm doing when playing the game it seems the "game" portion is frankly an after thought in its attempt to make a simulation.

Personally GT has lost my support for FM (and rfactor when I get a wheel) I will still be getting gt5...but I can near promise it will be sitting in the box alot more then FM3

 

[Northstar]

I don't think sales will fall too much, it has always been a system mover for Sony(it's basically Sony's Halo).

I think what state the global economy is in will affect sales more than what another company does(F3 will have to face the storm head on since they are releasing it while we are still in a recession).

I also think Sony/PD knows they have to up the level of GT5 and you can tell so far they are doing this with series licenses, something of which has never been done before in this style of game(previously we only had certain teams not a series). Not to mention more people are familiar with the Gran Turismo name than the Forza name.

Plus Kaz has said himself that the game "will set a new standard for the genre".

 

[Meinbeast]

In order for Forza 3 to be better than GT5, They must have really f'ed up the past 5 years of development. If Forza is even close to being as good as GT5 i think Gt5 should be ashamed of themselves. To be in development for this long and us not knowing anything i think GT5 is going to suprise a lot of people on here, thats just my opinion. Also keep in mind GT5P is nearly 2 years old thats a hell of alot of time to change stuff.

 

[Peter]

PD hasn't spent 5 years sitting around doing nothing. It's been all hard work trying to produce the greatest racing game ever. PD is a small company and so, can't do as much as T10 can with innovation.

 

[Soullessvessel]

Innovation has nothing to do with the Number of developers and all to do with the creative thinking of the project leader and to a lesser extent the people assisting him.

 

[skywolf23]

with gt5, the real gow, god of war, uncharted 2, and a number of other huge exclusives due out this coming year coupled with an expected price drop of the system plus the firmware update that should make all ps3s backwards compatable. this should be a year that is good for sony and ps3.

ps3 also dominates the japan market over xbox, is about even with xbox in europe and is only outsold in the usa. i think the sony loosing this round stuff is a tad overblown and premature. meanwhile wii sales have flattened out greatly.

i can see gt5 ps3 bundles and GoW ps3 bundles that probably will move systems especially if the price cuts hit before these games drop. but i think all indicators that this will be the year of the ps3.

 

[Radracing]

as gt5 will be an ps3 exclusive and the ps3 doesnt have such arcade game/sim yet i dont think gt5 will do badly maybe not so good as gt4 but dont forget alott of people are looking forward too this game.

Yes, a lot of people!!!! so maybe, just maybe a lot will go out and buy a PS3 just to race in GT5 online events. As a result of this maybe it will surpass Xbox and Wii in sales at the same time surepass the sales numbers of GT4.

 

[Kingdizzi]

It will sell enough for a sequal which is pretty much all I care about. Now if people look at all those games delayed to 2010 I really am going to be shocked if GT5 does not make it this year which I do care about. I cannot see GT5 selling any less than 6 million and along with GT5: Prologue sales I'm sure PD will make a tidy profit. Also if the Slim coming this year is also true then the game will sell 7 million no problem. One has to remember this is the first flagship game in 4 years and probably the only flagship GT game this generation.

Turn 10 has to release a game every 2 years because MS have them on a leash, something PD do not have to worry about. Things happen when you have a franchise which has sold 50 million.......

BTW if anyone here has ever visited Neogaf and a Forza thread you will know about a fool called 'chespace'. He openly admitted the Forza 3 screens are all bullshots as of now and:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=16876967&postcount=3844

I really don't like that guy which is plain old pathetic since I don't him but damn he hates PD with a passion. I know he is a PR guy for Turn 10 but damn.....just damn.

 

[TeamStig]

with gt5, the real gow, god of war, uncharted 2, and a number of other huge exclusives due out this coming year coupled with an expected price drop of the system plus the firmware update that should make all ps3s backwards compatable. this should be a year that is good for sony and ps3.

👍 You bring up a great point.

On the other hand, I guarantee Sony will have most of its marketing focus on God of War 3 and Uncharted 2. I hope GT5 gets the attention it deserves.

BTW if anyone here has ever visited Neogaf and a Forza thread you will know about a fool called 'chespace'. He openly admitted the Forza 3 screens are all bullshots as of now

I really don't like that guy which is plain old pathetic since I don't him but damn he hates PD with a passion. I know he is a PR guy for Turn 10 but damn.....just damn.

Is that Che Chou the Forza community manager? Wow. Thought that guy had at least more class than Dan Greenawalt. PD doesn't need to prove the graphical quality of its game: its been out for a year and a half, and it already looks as good as Forza's touched up photos.

 

[skywolf23]

well being that gt was a flagship title since ps1 i hardly think they will skimp on the publicity, long before uncharted and god of war were even titles . but we shall see how it all plays out.

 

[Jay]

Just look at how GT5P has sold, it being a prologue has roughly matched the entire FM2 sales, I don't think we have to worry about GT5 sales, while they maybe not quite has high than other major GT releases it will sell well anyway. I personally know 3 people waiting for GT5 just to buy a PS3.

 

[Kingdizzi]

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

GT5: Prologue has shipped a lot of copies and I'm sure the full game will do better.

 

[FLASH48]

I real don't think GT5, will match GT4 sales. Only because there were more PS2's out when GT4 came out! And not every one that bought GT4 has a PS3, so the numbers are not going to be as good.

 

[Jay]

I real don't think GT5, will match GT4 sales. Only because there were more PS2's out when GT4 came out! And not every one that bought GT4 has a PS3, so the numbers are not going to be as good.

GT3's sales were larger than GT4 and the PS2 was quite new when GT3 came out. Not saying GT5 will beat GT4's sales though, we don't know.

 

[deep_sky]

I just don't understand why some people think GT5 sales will be lower than previous versions.

GT3 came when there were 14.95 million PS2's in the wild; in North America, GT3 came out when there were 5.15 PS2's sold, and yet GT3 went on to sell 7.1 million copies in NA going by Polyphony's numbers.

GT5 will come out with 23 million consoles in the wild....and plus the fact Sony will bundle the hell out of it...I'd expect it match if not exceed GT3, especially if it's as good and as industry defining as Kaz has suggested.

 

[Peter]

GT4 is a greatest hit. GT5P is a greatest hit. GT5P is a demo and became a greatest hit in 1.5 years, and GT4, the full game took a while. GT5 will sell great, there's people who bought GT5P+others waiting for GT5 to release+Forza fans who are pissed at FM3 when they find out it's total crap=lots of people.

 

[II IVORBIGUN II]

GT5 will be a massive hit and here is why.

I've owned the Xbox 360 since launch but the general vibe amongst my friends is the console has seen its best days and appears to feel dated with no progression being made with the games. Now just for this reason some are planning to buy a PS3 but the release of GT5 will guarantee it. I was talking to the manager at my local Game store the other day and he was saying that due to the level of interest in GT5 he was expecting huge numbers of PS3 consoles to be sold.

Obviously there are going to be some who stick with Forza 3 and don't buy GT5 but these are people who either can't afford a PS3, never grown up with GT franchise, aren't proper racing fans. The intial sales of GT5 might be slower than Sony would probably like but watch how this will grow over the next 1-3yrs.

I know this thread is about GT5 sales and not PS3 sales but for obvious reasons my points are applicable. The way I see it is the 360 had a headstart on the PS3 but my word this is changing at a fastpace. The problem is MS have made a mistake in planning for the future in a few areas. For starters we all know Blu Ray won the war but more importantly they believe the future is digital downloading. Im afraid they are wrong because digital downloadng will be the future but not for another 10-20yrs. Unless MS introduce a new console very soon you will see many Xbox 360 owners buy a PS3 over the next few years. We all already seeing games on the PS3 that look far superior to what the 360 can offer i.e GT5, Unchartered 2, GOW III and this will only continue into the next few years. All of this means greater sales for GT5.

I shall give you an example of why MS have got it wrong when they announced 1080P movies will be available on the marketplace. Why on earth would I spend 500MS points to download over 10GB which is unlikely to contain extras, Dolby True HD etc which expires 24hrs after watching. I can rent a Blu ray film for £2 which will have all the features and I can keep it aslong as I like. Furthermore how many ISPS will be happy if you keep downloading over 10GB movies!!

My last point is has the 360 actually sold more than the PS3 or is this down to reliability. I have purchased 3 360 consoles and I know a friend who has bought 5! So is the 360 more popular or just less reliable??

 

[MajorZero]

I think that advertising can help. Sony and PD must create catchy commercials in TV, Internet and large cities.

 

[Famine]

GT5: Prologue went Platinum on just its preorders.

I don't think they'll have trouble shifting games.

 

[OkeyD]

It'll probably be the worst selling main series GT. Still, it should hit 7 million eventually.

 

[Angerdx]

I just have this feeling this game might actually outsell every other franchise on ps3 and even rival it´s own past.

 

[II IVORBIGUN II]

Currently 3rd in the pre-order charts and this is without an official release date. You can imagine this would increase dramatically if a release date was announced.

http://www.shopto.net/page.php?page=topcharts&mode=preorders&platform=PS3


I find the GT franchise differs from franchises such as Halo, , COD. These games only really appeal to gamers of that particular type i.e FPS. What you find with GT is it appeals to gamers who don't necessarily like racing games but they buy it just on the strength of the name and the quality of graphics.

I reckon GT5 will even exceed GT4 in sales!

 

[hardvibes]

I think that advertising can help. Sony and PD must create catchy commercials in TV, Internet and large cities.

like when assassin's creed 2 was advertised on the main page of youtube, I'd love to see the same with gt5

 

[mu51im]

So is the 360 more popular or just less reliable??

less reliable. i had one before i bought my ps3 and it broke in a few months. the dreaded 3 or 4 red lights of death.

 

[skywolf23]

i honestly would like to see real numbers on how many people actually had to rebuy xbox 360s multiple times because of rrod and expired warranties. i bet the number is staggering but as a total percentage of sales that number would be fascinating.

 

[Famine]

Initial units seem to have a 30% failure rate. The smaller process units were reported at a 10% failure rate. Overall, there's a claimed 16.4% warranty claim rate - which seems about inline with those numbers, taking non-warrantied machines into account.

The Wii and PS3 both run at 3%. Consumer electronics industry average is 15% for 3 to 4 year old devices (with TVs generally far better than this and laptops far worse).