Holy Cow 1.6 Billion Powerball

[Danoff]

Crunching the numbers a bit:

Payouts:
29 annual payments: $1.3 Billion
Lump Sum: $806 Million

Federal Tax Man gets 39.6%

With Taxes taken out, the lump sum payout is $486,824,000

Pretty nice chunk of change.

That's if you don't split it (as others have mentioned). If you assume it will split you're at $250 million, which means your $2 lottery ticket has an expected value of somewhere in the neighborhood of $0.83. Buying a lottery ticket is then exchanging $2 for $0.83 in return. Assuming you split more than once will make the value go down from there. Don't assume you split it and it's $2 for $1.66. The expected number of times you split it can be calculated (and I'm sure someone has) based on the expected number of tickets to sell. So you can calculate exactly what each lottery ticket is worth, and it'll be less than $2.

 

[McLaren]

Which 6 states are those?

Delaware, Kansas, Maryland, North Dakota, Ohio and South Carolina.

 

[a6m5]

I handle the pool for work, and we keep it light at $4 per person. Saturday, we bought $144 worth? We won whopping $3.

 

[Darla Starch]

I handle the pool for work, and we keep it light at $4 per person. Saturday, we bought $144 worth? We won whopping $3.

USA! USA! USA!

 

[a6m5]

USA! USA! USA!

I don't know, I remember my uncle doing it at his work in Japan too.

 

[NocturnalPS]

And how much of that are you really going to get if you are the only division 1 winner?
300 million with the rest going to the government under the guise of "Tax"

Hey more then what I have now. I'm the type of person who gets excited about finding quarters in my couch. Win! ha

 

[wfooshee]

I don't understand the folks who think that the more tickets sold, the lower their chance of winning. This is not a parimutuel wager; you're not betting against the other players. It's a straight selection from a known set of numbers. 7.5 billion people could buy tickets, and your odds are the same as if 12 people bought tickets.

 

[TB]

I don't understand the folks who think that the more tickets sold, the lower their chance of winning. This is not a parimutuel wager; you're not betting against the other players. It's a straight selection from a known set of numbers. 7.5 billion people could buy tickets, and your odds are the same as if 12 people bought tickets.

I had never thought about it before but come to that realization yesterday. 👍

 

[photonrider]

And then there is the slim chance that no one will hold a jackpot ticket.

 

[Grayfox]

And then there is the slim chance that no one will hold a jackpot ticket.

Which means.


JACKPOT!

 

[kikie]

The winnings of the National lotery in Belgium is tax free. I you win €6,000,000, you will get €6,000,000, tax free.

 

[Blitz24]

I don't understand the folks who think that the more tickets sold, the lower their chance of winning. This is not a parimutuel wager; you're not betting against the other players. It's a straight selection from a known set of numbers. 7.5 billion people could buy tickets, and your odds are the same as if 12 people bought tickets.

Exactly. Only thing it would do is lower the chances of nobody winning but would not affect your individual chances.

 

[Grayfox]

The winnings of the National lotery in Belgium is tax free. I you win €6,000,000, you will get €6,000,000, tax free.

Same in aus.

50,000,000.

You win it all if your the only division 1 winner.

America just loves to tax its poor citizens and the IRS wonders why big companies like apple, google, ect have their headquarters outside of the US.
Not surprised you don't pay tax on your tax in the US.

Oh no you paided $5,054 in tax, we must tax you on the tax you paid.

 

[Pupik]

I don't understand the folks who think that the more tickets sold, the lower their chance of winning. This is not a parimutuel wager; you're not betting against the other players. It's a straight selection from a known set of numbers. 7.5 billion people could buy tickets, and your odds are the same as if 12 people bought tickets.

In short:
1 ticket = odds 1:290,000,000
2 tickets = odds 1:289,999,999
3 tickets = odds 1:289,999,998
et al. That's if using different number sequences; there's multipliers such as paying $4 or $6 for your ticket if you want insurance against multiple winners, so you get a larger share. Also, for those dozens of winners with 5 out of 6 numbers, you might get more than the others*.

Since the "powerball" comes from an entirely different chamber, the odds increase incredibly.

That said...only $2?

America just loves to tax its poor citizens and the IRS wonders why big companies like apple, google, ect have their headquarters outside of the US.

Without getting into an opinionated discussion (for another sub-forum): they're headquartered in the United States. They have manufacturing, design, and distribution facilities in many other countries. That's what you get to do when you're popular.

But just as there's corporations who pay minimal amounts, there's both poor, average, and wealthy people who also pay very little taxes...For various and sundry legal / questionable / illegal reasons.

Not surprised you don't pay tax on your tax in the US.

Estate taxes on cash can be brutal. Most other financial instruments are taxed at rates ranging from "much less" to "none".

* not a financial advisor, see ticket for details, offer may not be good in your locality, information may have been merged with carnival cotton candy booth set-up instructions.

 

[Aki Ko]

America just loves to tax its poor citizens and the IRS wonders why big companies like apple, google, ect have their headquarters outside of the US.
Not surprised you don't pay tax on your tax in the US.

Oh no you paided $5,054 in tax, we must tax you on the tax you paid.

Just what I was about to mention.

The jackpot may be $1.3 billion, but the actual revenue you may receive is $806 million cash value. The US government never is satisfied when it comes to taxing- and it's the state tax at that. It doesn't go to the federal.

That said, it would be wise not to stay in town if you do win a significant amount of money in the US.

 

[Pupik]

That said, it would be wise not to stay in town if you do win a significant amount of money in the US.

Earnings in the US are generally taxable by the IRS no matter where you choose to live.

Few other developed nations are going tax you less on earning a few million or more, even compared to the U.S.A.'s highest tax bracket (38.5%). Maybe a few island exceptions if you donate generously to the local government/junta.

 

[eran0004]

In short:
1 ticket = odds 1:290,000,000
2 tickets = odds 1:289,999,999
3 tickets = odds 1:289,999,998

Almost, but you need to add one to the first column as well:

1 ticket = odds 1:290,000,000
2 tickets = odds 2:289,999,999
3 tickets = odds 3:289,999,998
...
290,000,001 tickets = odds 290,000,001:0 (or 1:0)

It's easier to simplify it and think of it as a dice roll. Before you roll you can pick a number to bet on. If you pick one number, these are the odds:

1:5

Because there are six possible outcomes. In one of the outcomes you win, in the five others you lose.

If you bet on two numbers, these are the odds:

2:4

Still six possible outcomes. In two of them you win, and in four of them you lose. This can be simplified as 1:2.

Three numbers:

3:3 (simplified as 1:1)

Four:

4:2 (2:1)

Five:

5:1

Six:

6:0 (1:0)

In this last case you win no matter the outcome, because you bet on all the possible numbers. There are no cases where you can lose.

The odds for the lottery can be simplified in a similar manner. 3:289,999,998 is roughly equal to 1:97,000,000. So, rounded off to the nearest million, what you get is this:

Tickets | Odds
0 | 0:1
1 | 1:290,000,000
2 | 1:145,000,000
3 | 1:97,000,000
4 | 1:72,500,000
5 | 1:58,000,000
6 | 1:48,000,000
7 | 1:41,000,000
8 | 1:36,000,000
9 | 1:32,000,000
10 | 1:29,000,000

There is a big jump in the odds when you only have a few tickets and buy one more. However, there is a diminishing return, so the more tickets you have, the less the odds improve when you buy one more.

 

[ryzno]

Meanwhile in GA, if you give up %25 of your winnings you can remain anonymous. You know where Governor Deal can shove that idea!
Anyways, my work has me going to rural areas so I've been buying 1 ticket at gas stations I stop at. So far I have 3.
I'd be happy to win 1 million I'm not greedy
Good luck to those playing!

 

[BobK]

.America just loves to tax its poor citizens and the IRS wonders why big companies like apple, google, ect have their headquarters outside of the US.
Not surprised you don't pay tax on your tax in the US.

Oh no you paided $5,054 in tax, we must tax you on the tax you paid.

Actually, we do pay taxes on taxes. Just one example: many things have an excise tax on them, such as automobile tires and cigarettes. This is added into the retail price of the item, Sales tax is then imposed on the entire price including the excise tax portion. So we pay sales tax on the excise tax.

 

[Liquid]

 

[BobK]

Actually it'll only be four dollars and thirty three cents each, not 4.33 million.

/buzzkillington

 

[prousonhairy]

They just said on the news it's up to 1.5 billion now. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it gets close to 2 billion before tomorrow evening.

 

[kikie]

Time to move to the US, become an American citizen and win 1.5 billion $.

 

[wfooshee]

Almost, but you need to add one to the first column as well:

1 ticket = odds 1:290,000,000
2 tickets = odds 2:289,999,999
3 tickets = odds 3:289,999,998
...
290,000,001 tickets = odds 290,000,001:0 (or 1:0)

It's easier to simplify it and think of it as a dice roll. Before you roll you can pick a number to bet on. If you pick one number, these are the odds:

1:5

Because there are six possible outcomes. In one of the outcomes you win, in the five others you lose.

If you bet on two numbers, these are the odds:

2:4

Still six possible outcomes. In two of them you win, and in four of them you lose. This can be simplified as 1:2.

Three numbers:

3:3 (simplified as 1:1)

Four:

4:2 (2:1)

Five:

5:1

Six:

6:0 (1:0)

In this last case you win no matter the outcome, because you bet on all the possible numbers. There are no cases where you can lose.

The odds for the lottery can be simplified in a similar manner. 3:289,999,998 is roughly equal to 1:97,000,000. So, rounded off to the nearest million, what you get is this:

Tickets | Odds
0 | 0:1
1 | 1:290,000,000
2 | 1:145,000,000
3 | 1:97,000,000
4 | 1:72,500,000
5 | 1:58,000,000
6 | 1:48,000,000
7 | 1:41,000,000
8 | 1:36,000,000
9 | 1:32,000,000
10 | 1:29,000,000

There is a big jump in the odds when you only have a few tickets and buy one more. However, there is a diminishing return, so the more tickets you have, the less the odds improve when you buy one more.

I think that's still wrong.... you don't subtract from the right side.

The odds of winning on a single ticket are 1:292,201,338. buying another ticket makes it 2:292,201,338.

The numbers don't converge to a center point.

In your dice example, the odds when you pick 2 numbers are two out of 6. The possible outcomes is always the right-hand number, not the total.

If you pick all six numbers for a die roll, your odds are 6:6, i.e. unity. No way to lose.

The odds are a ratio, and picking 3 out of 6 possible outcomes gives me a 3:6 probability, not a 3:3 (=1, = certain) probability.

Pupik subtracted from the right when he should have added to the left. The odds of you having a winning ticket are simply the number of tickets you have (with different numbers on each, of course) divided by the total number of possibilities. The number of possibilities does not change because you bought tickets. To guaranty a win, you have to buy 292,201,338 different tickets, making the ratio 292,201,338:292,201,338, i.e. 1:1.

Odds going greater than 1, i.e. 4:2, 5:1, etc. happen in parimutuel wagering, which this is not.

 

[eran0004]

I think that's still wrong.... you don't subtract from the right side.

The odds of winning on a single ticket are 1:292,201,338. buying another ticket makes it 2:292,201,338.

The numbers don't converge to a center point.

In your dice example, the odds when you pick 2 numbers are two out of 6. The possible outcomes is always the right-hand number, not the total.

If you pick all six numbers for a die roll, your odds are 6:6, i.e. unity. No way to lose.

The odds are a ratio, and picking 3 out of 6 possible outcomes gives me a 3:6 probability, not a 3:3 (=1, = certain) probability.

Pupik subtracted from the right when he should have added to the left. The odds of you having a winning ticket are simply the number of tickets you have (with different numbers on each, of course) divided by the total number of possibilities. The number of possibilities does not change because you bought tickets. To guaranty a win, you have to buy 292,201,338 different tickets, making the ratio 292,201,338:292,201,338, i.e. 1:1.

Odds going greater than 1, i.e. 4:2, 5:1, etc. happen in parimutuel wagering, which this is not.

Statistically speaking, there is a difference between odds and probability. Your example shows the probability to win, but not the odds.

Statistical odds uses the ratio of positive events to negative events. The odds of rolling any given number with a die is 1:5, one positive event for every five negative events.

The probability is given by dividing each number with the sum of both numbers, in this case 1+5 = 6. The odds of 1:5 thus gives a probability of 1/6 for a positive outcome and 5/6 for a negative outcome. So the probability is 1/6, but the odds are 1:5.

The dice example again:

Number of tickets | Odds | Probability
1 | 1:5 | 1/6
2 | 2:4 | 2/6
3 | 3:3 | 3/6
4 | 4:2 | 4/6
5 | 5:1 | 5/6
6 | 6:0 | 6/6

 

[TenEightyOne]

Actually it'll only be four dollars and thirty three cents each, not 4.33 million.

/buzzkillington

That's correct, I suspect @Liquid's image was from somebody using the Euro billion (1,000,000,000,000) rather than the literally-correct US bilion (1,000,000,000).

 

[CodeRedR51]

But just as there's corporations who pay minimal amounts, there's both poor, average, and wealthy people who also pay very little taxes...For various and sundry legal / questionable / illegal reasons.

Let's not forget that chruches don't pay them at all.

 

[Pupik]

/buzzkillington

Sometimes, social media makes we wonder "did they just discover the internet?"

Other times, it makes me wonder if they've ever used a calculator before.

Well, permanent job security is nice.

 

[Sanji Himura]

That's correct, I suspect @Liquid's image was from somebody using the Euro billion (1,000,000,000,000) rather than the literally-correct US bilion (1,000,000,000).

And even then it is still wrong as it would equal $4,333.33 per person. Besides, that really doesn't capture the true US population, which is somewhere around 310 million. If it did, it would be more in tune with $4.19 per person.

 

[Shaun]

Same in aus.

50,000,000.

You win it all if your the only division 1 winner.

Yeah you get to keep all the winnings but you pay tax at the point of sale on the ticket itself, something like 10 cents per ticket I think.