Ev0
I'm sure that if Japan were attacked or under an extreme threat from NK, the US bases in the region would help them out. Otherwise, I could certainly see Japan launching attacks on NK if nobody else would, and if a big enough threat would warrant such actions. The Japanese do have a large force of F-2 (a Japanese version of the F-16) aircraft, which are very capable strike aircraft that could probably do significant damage to facilities, such as, a nuclear missle silo.
I do agree that U.S. will back South Korea and Japan, if there was an North Korean attack. Only problem I see there is that Japanese defense being heavily dependant on favor of another country. I don't believe S. Korea has this problem.
I don't know the exact number of F-2s(Japanese version F-16s) JASDF has. They also have F-15s & F-4s, which should be able to handle more loads than the F-2s. If all Japan wanted to do is to strike specific facility or two, I agree that these jets will be sufficient. I just hope the target is not buried underground.
Ev0
I think the Chinese are becoming less of a threat. As we know, China's economy is currently experiencing massive growth, much of it thanks to foreign investors. I highly doubt the Chinese would invade Taiwan right now, since if they did so, they would likely lose many of the foreign investors who would not want to support a nation of warmongerers.
You would think so, but as far as Taiwan is concerned, that is not the case. As far as Japan is concerned, Chinese threat is actually getting worse lately. Also, country like France is always looking to deal with countries such as China, as long as it is profittable. They would sell the hi-tech weapons to China, if law allowed them to(IMO). I don't know how accurate this infomation is, but I've heard that France and Germany were still doing business with Sadam Hussein, before he was taken out of power. If that's the case, I get the feeling they'll do business with
anybody as long as it's good for their economy.
///M-Spec
Yes, I would be worried, because it is possible. But still highly unlikely. If N. Korea is going to threaten anyone, it would be the South because it is more capable of following up on a threat there. And I'll tell you why a North Korean attack on Japan, especially one involving nuclear weapons, is highly unlikely: everything to lose and nothing to gain.
N. Korea's leadership is crazy, but not stupid. There is no reason to attack Japan because they cannot possibly gain anything from an actual war with Japan and the world would put an end to N. Korea if they tried.
Even if they attacked with nuclear weapons, the second they do, the security council for call a resolution authorizing any force nessessary to remove the N. Korea government. I do not think there is a single country on the council that would not sign it (China may abstain from voting, but not veto) and it would pass within hours of any event.
So now N.Korea has attacked a country across a sea and is at war. It has half a million hostile RoK forces to the south (plus US Army), the world's most advanced navy off their shores and a great big sea between it and Japan which it would have absolutely ZERO chance of successfully invading because the US and Japanese navy would sink every ship in the invasion force within hours.
Worse yet for them, the entire world is going to sit back an watch Japan's largest military ally, the United States turn everything north of the 38th parallel into something that looks like the surface of the moon, quite possibly, with nuclear weapons of their own. (which, in case some of you are too young to remember the Cold War, the US has more than enough to destroy the world several times over)
It is not realistic because it is a certain total loss for N. Korea. The missle test over Japan was nothing but empty blustering.
It is also not realistic for the United States to start a shooting war in the Korea penisula for the very reasons I pointed out in the my first post.
M
Yes, you are right. NK has nothing to gain and everything to lose by hitting Japan with the WMD. In my opinion, that's when your earlier statement comes into play. "North Korean leadership is crazy".
Also, I'm not sure if you are familiar with the history between the Korea-Japan. This is the second reason(for me), that makes an N. Korean WMD strike on Japan an realistic risk. Korea(both south&north) hates Japan, and Japan looks down on Korea. This is so childish and unbelievably stupid(on both sides), but it is true. Things between Japan and South Korea is getting better than in the past, but I remember as recent as in the 90's, Japanese car manufactures were not allowed an space at Seoul's International Auto Show. I do not know if this is still going on. From what I understand, there still are laws and regulations prohibiting Japanese this and Japanese that, in South Korea. If South Korea hates Japan this much, can you imagine how much the North despises Japan? Also, they had been kidnapping hundreds of Japanese citizens, supposedly to make them teach North Korean spies, how to act Japanese. NK claims kidnapping lot fewer numbers of people, and that they've returned all surviving victims. I don't buy any of that.
North Korea=Crazy, combined with the history of their hatred against Japan, makes WMD attack on Japan an realistic risk. If NK actually get attacked or cornered by South Korea or the U.S., chance of WMD attack on Japan is better than 50-50.
P.S. Sorry this post got so long! I wanted to make sure, I've explained why I think N.K. attack on Japan is entirely possible, while it might make no sense at all to some. I've seen many posts by you two( M-Spec&EvO) and do have lot of respect for you guys, so thanks for nice discussion.