PD If your reading this, sort this out!

[eran0004]

By reading this below, its proof that it's not chance.

That’s incorrect. All it means is that the chance event occurs before you receive the ticket.

The key question is how the prize is determined, not when.

Imagine the following scenario: Take a stack of cards and shuffle it. Then pick the top card of the stack. If it’s an ace you win, if it’s not you lose. When does the chance event occur? Is it when you pick the card or is it when you shuffle the deck?

Put the card back in the top of the stack and draw it again. Did the card change? Probably not, right? Does that mean that this little game is not a game of chance? No, it just means that the chance event occurs before you draw the card, namely when you shuffle the deck.

 

[HarVee]

If it’s not based on chance, then at least present some kind of alternative. How does the game determine what prizes you should receive from the roulette and make it so that different players receive different prizes?

This is something that I am looking into actually. Here's what I've noticed with the wheel from my own testing over the last 2 months; 46 of the 51 tickets I've redeemed so far have all wheels have been organized in a way where the highest value prize is located on the left of the lowest value prize. The wheel will spin around always to the right and actually land on the highest value prize for a brief split second every time, however it seemingly always does a 'quick-jump' at the last second on over to the next prize on the wheel which typically happens to be the lowest prize. Since the wheel will land on the highest prize for a split-second, but then do the switch to the next prize, this is how you can determine which prize is the most valuable money-wise on your wheel.

For the other 5 tickets the wheel was arranged in a way where the highest prize was on the right of the lowest prize which made it so you'd get a medium-value prize as it does its quick-jump. This was how I was able to win a 964 engine I used in my Beetle.

 

[eran0004]

This is something that I am looking into actually. Here's what I've noticed with the wheel from my own testing over the last 2 months; 46 of the 51 tickets I've redeemed so far have all wheels have been organized in a way where the highest value prize is located on the left of the lowest value prize. The wheel will spin around always to the right and actually land on the highest value prize for a brief split second every time, however it seemingly always does a 'quick-jump' at the last second on over to the next prize on the wheel which typically happens to be the lowest prize. Since the wheel will land on the highest prize for a split-second, but then do the switch to the next prize, this is how you can determine which prize is the most valuable money-wise on your wheel.

For the other 5 tickets the wheel was arranged in a way where the highest prize was on the right of the lowest prize which made it so you'd get a medium-value prize as it does its quick-jump. This was how I was able to win a 964 engine I used in my Beetle.

Yeah, the animation seems to set up to cause maximum disappointment 😂

 

[tarnheld]

By reading this below, its proof that it's not chance.

Says nothing about the chances of acquiring the ticket in the first place. The ticket could be drawn fairly out of a pool of tickets at the time you receive a ticket, or for all tickets at the time of the installation of the game. Could also be predetermied by PD at creation of the game. Then every player would get the same tickets in the same order. Even then the draw of the tickets out of the pool is a series of chance events. No one knows if that's the case or what the pool of tickets looks like -- but this will determine the chance of winning a specific prize when the ticket is opened. All that we know is that the chances are leaning toward the smaller credit tickets.

EDIT: Oops,treed...

 

[Samus]

I believe it was @Famine that theorized it was running from a set list. So, simplifying, the first ten prizes in the list might be, in terms of rarity from 1-10

1
1
1
1
3
1
1
6
1
2

And this just continues on for thousands of entries, a 10 might appear once every 500 entries. So if that is true then no, it's not really chance if it's following a set order of prizes which is pre-determined to be stacked against big rewards.

The only chance may be in where you start on this list, since clearly not everyone starts at 1.

 

[Famine]

this just continues on for thousands of entries

I think it's billions (four of them, in fact), but yes.

 

[jrbabbitt]

THE POINT IS , THE ROULETTE SYSTEM IS PREDETERMINED, NO CHANCE

 

[Samus]

THE POINT IS , THE ROULETTE SYSTEM IS PREDETERMINED, NO CHANCE

If it works as Famine theorizes, yes. We don't know for certain though. If the order of the prizes is instead selected randomly, rather than following a set order, then there is some chance, just not when you actually receive them.

 

[jrbabbitt]

There is no chance when consistently we get the lowest value prize, sorry but that is a fact

 

[tarnheld]

So if that is true then no, it's not really chance if it's following a set order of prizes which is pre-determined to be stacked against big rewards.

THE POINT IS , THE ROULETTE SYSTEM IS PREDETERMINED, NO CHANCE

It depends on how this list has been generated: if PD used a dice or shuffled a deck of cards thoroughly i would say ther was change involved. Even if PD used a computer and a PRNG (see Spoiler) to generate the list, as long as there is a chance event when the entry point into the long list is made (like using the user id or the current time to generate an index to pick the next ticket) i would say it's based on chance.

That's how gambling machines work: press a button, computer inside "throws dice", win or no loose according to predetermined probabilities. The 3 wheels inside the machine are just a fancy display to lure you to play again.

Spoiler: Pseudo Random Number Generator Details

Maybe PD used a pseudo random number generator -- instead of having to store the whole list, use a function to compute the next number in the list, given the previous number. There are functions that cycle through all numbers from 1 up to some big number N in a random order, if you keep plugging in the number from the last funtion application. For example let's say we have the function f
f(1) = 4, f(4) = 3, f(3) = 5, f(5) = 2, f(2) = 1, f(1) = 4...
This function cycles through all the numbers from 1-5 and then repeats. There are functions like that for big N that are very fast to compute.
Now to generate a list like mentioned by @Famine all there is to do for PD is prescribe how often they would like to hand out each prize.

Let's say they want the 5000Cr. Prize 90%, the 10000Cr. 5%, 50000Cr. 1%, etc.

All they have to do is to create a new ticket:

• for the first time a user gets a ticket generate a starting number U from the user id and some other stuff like time and date.
• plug that number into the function to get a new number X
• check if X < 90% of N, if so then hand out the 5000Cr. ticket.
• if 90% of N < X < 95% of N, hand out the 10000Cr. ticket.
• ...
• at the end, save X to be plugged into the function for the next ticket to be handed out later.

On opening of the ticket play back the dreaded roulette sequence, throwing in some other prizes along with the predetermined prize of the ticket and stop the wheel at that prize...

What i described is the usual way for a computer to generate chance events. The only true random thing is the generation of U or what goes into it. It is rigged in a way as PD prescribes the outcome probabilities, but there is an actual chance involved and the outcome is looking random.

 

[tarnheld]

There is no chance when consistently we get the lowest value prize, sorry but that is a fact

I would agree if we would only get lowest prizes. But i have witnessed that we sometimes get higher prizes. If you cannot determine before opening the ticket if and when you will get these higher prizes then there is chance involved.

 

[Fuz_Belvedere]

I try to keep a record of each Roulette Ticket (roughly after the first 20 days)

https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40Fuzzy_Belvedere%20roulette&f=live

Been a bit surprised with some of the most recent prizes 🎮 😎 👍

 

[Imari]

I would agree if we would only get lowest prizes. But i have witnessed that we sometimes get higher prizes. If you cannot determine before opening the ticket if and when you will get these higher prizes then there is chance involved.

If it's a predetermined list then it only feels like chance because you're unaware of what the list order actually looks like. It doesn't mean that it's actually chance.

If I give you an envelope each day that has an arbitrary amount of money in it that I've chosen, that's not chance despite the fact that you will be surprised by the amount of money in each envelope. I could tell you what's in the envelope before it's opened.

If the code is written such that someone with knowledge of how it works could predict the outcome beforehand, then it's not chance. If repeating the same action results in the same outcome, it's not chance. True chance is not deterministic.

 

[tarnheld]

I agree that the actual chance/randomness used in PD's roulette is hard to pin down and might not even be there if you are picky about what chance is. We might go way beyond the original post with the question of what is predetermined and what is random...

If it's a predetermined list then it only feels like chance because you're unaware of what the list order actually looks like. It doesn't mean that it's actually chance.

If the list was made using "real random" coin tosses or card shuffles or whatever i would say the chance events have been relayed to me through the list and even if i would do the coin tosses myself it would be indistinguishable from going through the list.
Now if you would note the outcomes from me, and if each player gets the same entries from the list as outcomes, you would have an advantage over me as you know the outcomes beforehand. But if PD could arrange to give each player a different part of the list that doesn't overlap with some other player, no one will get an advantage. PD could do that my making the list long enough and predetermining a part of the list based on the player id.

If I give you an envelope each day that has an arbitrary amount of money in it that I've chosen, that's not chance despite the fact that you will be surprised by the amount of money in each envelope. I could tell you what's in the envelope before it's opened.

If i can ask you before opening the envelope and if you are correct every time i might trust you that you know what's inside the envelope. But it does matter to me how you actually choose the amount of money.
Let's say you decide to throw a coin and put the coin in the envelope if it comes up heads, or leave the envelope empty if it comes up tails. Would it make a difference to me if you could actually tell me what's inside the envelope? I can ask you or i can open the envelope. Still it will appear to me as if you threw a coin. And you actually threw a coin. You knew the outcome before me, but the outcome was a chance event.
But what if you chose some other way of deciding the amount of money -- put a coin in the envelope every second time for example. It would be easy for me to see after a few exchanges of envelopes what your trick is. I could try for myself to guess the contents of the next envelope and would be fairly confident in my own guesses after a few sucesses. I would conclude that the outcome is predetermined. But if you refine your recipe it would be harder and harder for me to guess the next outcome and i would be more and more convinced that you used a random event even though your recipe is without randomness.

If the code is written such that someone with knowledge of how it works could predict the outcome beforehand, then it's not chance. If repeating the same action results in the same outcome, it's not chance. True chance is not deterministic.

In that sense, it would be very hard for PD to actually do the roulette by using chance -- code run on computers like the PS is deterministic so there is no chance involved. Modern computers have some hardware to generate "true randomness" from random physical processes, but this hardware is often not used as you would need to trust the hardware manufacturer to not have tampered with the outcomes.
Still it is possible to write code that emulates random events with a prescribed probability so that they are almost indistiguishable from real random events in that nobody can gain advantage from knowing the steps of emulation. But in a sense these emulated events are deterministic.

I think in the PD roulette controversy several questions are confounded:

1. Is the roulette rigged in that prizes are not handed out equally likely?
   • Yes, i would say that PD has predefined how often each prize will be received, with the lowest prize the most often.
2. Is the roulette fair in that all players have the same probability/chance of getting a certain prize?
   • I would think so as there is no evidence otherwise.
3. Is the roulette random or predetermined?
   • I don't know and it's hard to tell. I would guess it's predetermined but in a way to emulate randomness to fullfill point one and two above.

 

[incredirog]

So really the best way to improve the roulette is to make the prizes better so we don’t feel like we’re being stiffed every single time we open a ticket

 

[BrunUK]

There is no chance when consistently we get the lowest value prize, sorry but that is a fact

Not a fact at all. A chance outcome can easily be deliberately weighted to favour certain results.

 

[Imari]

In that sense, it would be very hard for PD to actually do the roulette by using chance -- code run on computers like the PS is deterministic so there is no chance involved. Modern computers have some hardware to generate "true randomness" from random physical processes, but this hardware is often not used as you would need to trust the hardware manufacturer to not have tampered with the outcomes.

It's really not as hard as you make it sound. A PS5 or any modern computer has a timer (or multiple timers) in it that operate at a very high rate. If you push a button on the controller, the least significant digits on that time stamp (say, 100 microseconds or less) are going to be more than random enough for something like awarding prizes in a car game.

So use the least significant digits of the clock timer when you press the button to open the roulette ticket to determine the prize. Not only is it random, if you reset and open the same ticket multiple times you get a "fresh" random number and a completely independent chance to win each time as you should.

Or just use the hardware random number generator that's been included in both Intel and AMD chips since 2015. It might not be in the PS5 custom chip, but it seems like it would be an odd thing to take out when games specifically have so many uses for random numbers. Trust doesn't really come into it, this isn't high level cryptography. We're not talking about transferring large amounts of money securely or sending classified information, we're talking about rolling for a roulette ticket. No one cares if AMD fiddled with their hardware RNG for this purpose*.

*Apart from the fact that if it were to become known that they had a flawed hardware RNG implementation it would be catastrophic for them, but hey.

Is the roulette random or predetermined?

• I don't know and it's hard to tell. I would guess it's predetermined but in a way to emulate randomness to fullfill point one and two above.

It's predetermined and it's not hard to tell.

The fact that you always get the same result from opening the same ticket multiple times means that the result is predetermined in some fashion. There is only one result you're ever going to get from a given ticket and that's the definition of predetermined, even if you don't know what that result is going to be. A randomised ticket does not do that.

If I have a fair die, I can roll it as many times as I like and it could be any of the six numbers.
If I have a weighted die, I can roll it as many times as I like and it will always give me the same number.

If I give you a bunch of weighted dice that are all weighted towards different sides, and tell you that you're only allowed to roll each of them once then you might get the idea that they're all fair and that the results that you're getting are truly random. But they're not. Each die I give you has a predetermined result.

==========

To be clear, being predetermined isn't even necessarily a problem for gameplay. It's fine to have planned out what prizes you want the player to get. In some cases it's better for the game.

The problem is misleading the player into thinking that they have a chance at stuff that they don't. A free 5k credits is fine, if not terribly exciting. A free 5k credits when you keep missing out on the 100k, 500k and 1M options is designed to be frustrating.

Functionally there would be no difference if the game just gave you a prize when you got a ticket - no randomness, no spinning, no other prizes shown. You just get the next prize from a list that you can't see. But that would be less effective at triggering FOMO, you wouldn't be seeing all those other desirable things that you "missed out on" and you'd be less inclined to get frustrated and maybe spend some money on relieving that frustration.

This is why we have a roulette that most people seem to agree is mostly frustratingly stingy, and why it's designed the way it is. It's not designed to be fair or rewarding, it's designed to push people towards taking certain actions like using the cash shop. True randomness would be less effective, with millions of players at least some of them would get lucky, high roll their way through and never feel the FOMO. If they happened to be a whale, that's potentially significant revenue that Polyphony would be missing out on.

This is the actual issue. It's not that the tickets are predetermined. That really is neither here nor there. It's that they're predetermined in a way that is specifically not based around being fun for the player, because that's not the objective.

 

[tarnheld]

It's really not as hard as you make it sound.

It's doable for sure, but using the timer numbers will not guarantee that you have some sort of uniform distribution to shape a desired outcome probability. And you have the option for cheaters to trick the system by manipulating the timer.

The fact that you always get the same result from opening the same ticket multiple times means that the result is predetermined in some fashion.

As i said before this doesn't prove anything more than that randomness is not introduced at the time of ticket opening. The prize has been already put in the ticket and doesn't change, nothing more can be inferred from this.

I agree that the presentation of the roulette game is suboptimal, it looks like they mixed two different approaches of designing this. Like two teams started working on this, one with the roulette idea one with the ticket idea. Then the roulette idea didn't pan out as you have a hard time visualizing on a roulette whell that the higher prizes aren't that likely. But to not waste the teams efforts, they merged the roulette and the ticket ideas into roulette tickets. An the rest is history...

 

[Imari]

It's doable for sure, but using the timer numbers will not guarantee that you have some sort of uniform distribution to shape a desired outcome probability.

If you're shaping outcomes it's not random. If it's a guaranteed uniform distribution it's not random.

What you're suggesting is exactly the reasons why people use systems that aren't random. It's why I said "To be clear, being predetermined isn't even necessarily a problem for gameplay. It's fine to have planned out what prizes you want the player to get. In some cases it's better for the game."

And you have the option for cheaters to trick the system by manipulating the timer.

It's a mostly single player game with very limited opportunity for advantage in multiplayer from additional items or currency. People are already manipulating the PP system to get advantage in races. This doesn't strike me as a problem that is so great that it counteracts the benefits of using a simple system.

Of course, Polyphony probably wouldn't like that it would give people the opportunity to gain credits/cars/items in a way outside of their cash shop. But I really couldn't give two tugs of a dead dogs dingus about that. If people want to "cheat" in their single player game, then more power to them.

I agree that the presentation of the roulette game is suboptimal, it looks like they mixed two different approaches of designing this. Like two teams started working on this, one with the roulette idea one with the ticket idea. Then the roulette idea didn't pan out as you have a hard time visualizing on a roulette whell that the higher prizes aren't that likely. But to not waste the teams efforts, they merged the roulette and the ticket ideas into roulette tickets. An the rest is history...

Seriously unlikely.

Both tickets and roulettes are memorable parts of the historical systems of Gran Turismo, and for a game that purports to be the best of all past GT games it's not odd that they'd try to have these two mechanics present in some fashion. Putting two separate groups both working on different implementations of a prize award system would be awful project management on a scale that even I can't realistically see Polyphony doing. It's a relatively simple subsystem which they probably already have a framework for from previous games. Two groups working on it? Not a reasonable assumption without further evidence.

Also, if a system isn't working out you don't then combine it with something that is working "not to waste the teams efforts". If something doesn't work you cut it. These are paid professional adults, not children getting a participation award.

What's more likely - that the devs are still bad at their job after 25 years of making Gran Turismo (and having several better reward systems), or that they're good at their job and are simply making a system designed to maximise profit instead of fun? The saying goes not to assume malice where incompetence is sufficient, but I'm not sure that incompetence is sufficient explanation in a AAA game in 2022.

 

[Barracuda413]

so far I have gotten
car I didnt want
car I already have
car I really really like
car that is just OK
parts I cant use
parts I will never use
"1" ONE part I could use
for a car I won, "just ok' one
100,000K in cash, once or twice
another couple hundred K in cash
$5000 - $10,000 at a time or so
is it great? no. does it suck? also no