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Okay, so there's a pretty long discussion already here:
https://www.gtplanet.net/forum/showthread.php?t=73281
But the fact is: We're not going to run completely out of oil. And we're not going to use it up.
And the flavor of the situation has changed drastically since 2006. Since then, we've seen oil hit a heady $140 per barrel, the global economy collapse, oil drop to under $60 per barrel, then climb back up steadily while most of us are still recovering from the shock.
Despite the growth in demand, global oil production has remained steady for the past decade, and discoveries have peaked.
And despite the extreme volatility in world oil prices, with the push above $100 per barrel oil only temporarily stalled by the tanking of the global economy in 08', barrel per day production has not expanded significantly to meet the higher demand.
Economy "tanked", get it? Get it?
Okay, so there are other reasons besides the terrible state of the global economy. Libya. Syria. Iran. Perhaps when the political situation clears up in these countries, oil production will go up commensurately, but it's likely that the process of rebuilding will also increase domestic consumption in these countries. Meaning less oil still, for us.
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It seems likely that this is it. Even if supply increases by a goodly percent over the next few years, we're straining at the limits of the envelope, and it's possible we'll see oil prices go boom and bust cyclically over the next decade or two, as production levels off then gradually begins to fall. Improved extraction methods, more off-shore drilling and better conversion will cushion the fall, but the balance point at which prospecting and extracting become less and less profitable seems to be here.
-
So we've got lots of time, you say? Time to trade in the relatively inefficient gasoline- and diesel-powered cars for electric vehicles, or for alternative fuel vehicles?
There's a problem there.
Whatever your view on the idea, EROEI (energy return on energy invested) represents a ballpark limit to the amount of energy we can get out of each energy resource, irregardless of the financial cost. And the EROEI for petroleum fuel substitutes like biodiesel and bioethanol is pretty wretched. In fact, the EROEI for biofuels is marginally positive. Even if you factor in societal costs such as wars and dictators, gasoline is still at a higher EROEI.
The real kicker is, when petroleum products start to become scarce, the level of productivity of a bio-fuel farm will start to go down, as more and more of the crop is used on-site to fuel the operation. Conserving that by resorting to manual tilling, sowing and harvesting lowers the income of the farm workers to levels that give them little incentive to go on. There's a reason millions of third-world farmers don't plant crops. Eventually, we'll get there, but we're not going to be planting biofuels simply so the middle-class can drive thirty minutes to work...
-
Alternatives like Natural Gas and Propane are better, but these are not infinite resources, either.
That leaves us with electricity from coal, hydroelectric and solar power.
Suck that, eco-weenies...
Coal is running out, but not as quickly. Estimates are that it will last around twenty years longer than easily accessible oil. Hydroelectric and solar power can provide back-up, but we don't have enough solar set up yet, and the applications for hydroelectric are severely limited by geography. Environmental concerns don't count. When our back is to the wall, we will gladly flood eco-rich marshlands for more electricity.
But what matters is what this means for car owners. Whatever the source, electricity is still cheaper per mile than gasoline. And if you own your own solar panels, it's free. (ignoring installation costs and the like)
But electric cars possess an upfront cost that's hard to ignore. For the same carrying capacity and just a fourth of the driving range, electric cars cost over twice what petroleum powered vehicles do. And they'll cost even more when the cost of oil for shipping rises significantly. While you will eventually pay out the difference in gasoline costs on a regular car, the longer period over which you get to pay that out helps prevent sticker shock.
-
That's the scenario. What are the implications? Will we see a recreation of Mad Max on a global scale over the next twenty or thirty years? Roving gangs fighting over limited oil supplies to feed their marauding ways? Perhaps the only (unprofitable) oil wells will be run by leather-and-spike clad dictators through slave labor, to drive their armies and conquer other territories to grow food for them.
We'll be having shrimp on the barbie tonight!
Or will we see a catastrophic population collapse followed by a reversion to tribal life, or agricultural feudalism? Alcohol- and biodiesel-fed tanks (or even steam tanks?) rolling out of China to conquer the rest of Asia? America's nuclear aircraft carriers floating offshore as alcohol-fed aircraft make furtive sorties into Indochina to halt the Chinese advance...
Grossly uncomfortable pillbox suits not included.
On a less alarmist note: Are we going to see another massive "cash for clunkers" program, where people are given incentive to trade in their SUVs for bicycles and quadricycles? Will the governments get their acts together, concentrate populations around food-growing areas (to lower transport costs overall), start massive population control programs and erect massive solar installations in time?
Feel that burn!
What do you think?
https://www.gtplanet.net/forum/showthread.php?t=73281
But the fact is: We're not going to run completely out of oil. And we're not going to use it up.
And the flavor of the situation has changed drastically since 2006. Since then, we've seen oil hit a heady $140 per barrel, the global economy collapse, oil drop to under $60 per barrel, then climb back up steadily while most of us are still recovering from the shock.
Despite the growth in demand, global oil production has remained steady for the past decade, and discoveries have peaked.
And despite the extreme volatility in world oil prices, with the push above $100 per barrel oil only temporarily stalled by the tanking of the global economy in 08', barrel per day production has not expanded significantly to meet the higher demand.
Economy "tanked", get it? Get it?
Okay, so there are other reasons besides the terrible state of the global economy. Libya. Syria. Iran. Perhaps when the political situation clears up in these countries, oil production will go up commensurately, but it's likely that the process of rebuilding will also increase domestic consumption in these countries. Meaning less oil still, for us.
-
It seems likely that this is it. Even if supply increases by a goodly percent over the next few years, we're straining at the limits of the envelope, and it's possible we'll see oil prices go boom and bust cyclically over the next decade or two, as production levels off then gradually begins to fall. Improved extraction methods, more off-shore drilling and better conversion will cushion the fall, but the balance point at which prospecting and extracting become less and less profitable seems to be here.
-
So we've got lots of time, you say? Time to trade in the relatively inefficient gasoline- and diesel-powered cars for electric vehicles, or for alternative fuel vehicles?
There's a problem there.
Whatever your view on the idea, EROEI (energy return on energy invested) represents a ballpark limit to the amount of energy we can get out of each energy resource, irregardless of the financial cost. And the EROEI for petroleum fuel substitutes like biodiesel and bioethanol is pretty wretched. In fact, the EROEI for biofuels is marginally positive. Even if you factor in societal costs such as wars and dictators, gasoline is still at a higher EROEI.
The real kicker is, when petroleum products start to become scarce, the level of productivity of a bio-fuel farm will start to go down, as more and more of the crop is used on-site to fuel the operation. Conserving that by resorting to manual tilling, sowing and harvesting lowers the income of the farm workers to levels that give them little incentive to go on. There's a reason millions of third-world farmers don't plant crops. Eventually, we'll get there, but we're not going to be planting biofuels simply so the middle-class can drive thirty minutes to work...
-
Alternatives like Natural Gas and Propane are better, but these are not infinite resources, either.
That leaves us with electricity from coal, hydroelectric and solar power.
Suck that, eco-weenies...
Coal is running out, but not as quickly. Estimates are that it will last around twenty years longer than easily accessible oil. Hydroelectric and solar power can provide back-up, but we don't have enough solar set up yet, and the applications for hydroelectric are severely limited by geography. Environmental concerns don't count. When our back is to the wall, we will gladly flood eco-rich marshlands for more electricity.
But what matters is what this means for car owners. Whatever the source, electricity is still cheaper per mile than gasoline. And if you own your own solar panels, it's free. (ignoring installation costs and the like)
But electric cars possess an upfront cost that's hard to ignore. For the same carrying capacity and just a fourth of the driving range, electric cars cost over twice what petroleum powered vehicles do. And they'll cost even more when the cost of oil for shipping rises significantly. While you will eventually pay out the difference in gasoline costs on a regular car, the longer period over which you get to pay that out helps prevent sticker shock.
-
That's the scenario. What are the implications? Will we see a recreation of Mad Max on a global scale over the next twenty or thirty years? Roving gangs fighting over limited oil supplies to feed their marauding ways? Perhaps the only (unprofitable) oil wells will be run by leather-and-spike clad dictators through slave labor, to drive their armies and conquer other territories to grow food for them.
We'll be having shrimp on the barbie tonight!
Or will we see a catastrophic population collapse followed by a reversion to tribal life, or agricultural feudalism? Alcohol- and biodiesel-fed tanks (or even steam tanks?) rolling out of China to conquer the rest of Asia? America's nuclear aircraft carriers floating offshore as alcohol-fed aircraft make furtive sorties into Indochina to halt the Chinese advance...
Grossly uncomfortable pillbox suits not included.
On a less alarmist note: Are we going to see another massive "cash for clunkers" program, where people are given incentive to trade in their SUVs for bicycles and quadricycles? Will the governments get their acts together, concentrate populations around food-growing areas (to lower transport costs overall), start massive population control programs and erect massive solar installations in time?
Feel that burn!
What do you think?
