The Middle East

[Eunos_Cosmo]

I didn't see a general thread about the middle east, and felt the explosion today in Lebanon was worth discussion. Thought it might as well be part of a broader thread about the middle east.

At the moment it appears to be an accident, though probably some negligence on the side of Hezbollah.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/aug/04/beirut-explosion-huge-blast-port-lebanon-capital

Looks like a lot, lot of ammonium nitrate. I don't think I've seen a conventional explosion on this scale before...it must be approaching the 1kt mark

edit: 2,700 tons of ammonium nitrate. I don't know what the conversion is to TNT, but it's got to be similar. That's more powerful than some nuclear weapons in the US arsenal if I'm not mistaken, and about 20% the explosive power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

 

[CodeRedR51]

 

[Joey D]

Looks like a lot, lot of ammonium nitrate. I don't think I've seen a conventional explosion on this scale before...it must be approaching the 1kt mark

Look up the 2015 Tianjin Explosion, it was massive. But ya, these types of explosions are pretty rare outside a war zone.

There seems to be some mixed reports coming in with some saying it was an attack while others are saying it was an accident. What's weird is that Israel said they had nothing official to report, but sources within the government said it was an attack. Like why would you paint that target on you? Israel already isn't exactly liked in the Middle East and what they're doing makes them seem suspicious. I can't see Israel doing this, but the way they're acting isn't doing them any favours.

I really hope it was just a really bad accident and not a terrorist act. The last thing we need kicking off right now is a war in the Middle East...err another war in the Middle East.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Look up the 2015 Tianjin Explosion, it was massive. But ya, these types of explosions are pretty rare outside a war zone.

There seems to be some mixed reports coming in with some saying it was an attack while others are saying it was an accident. What's weird is that Israel said they had nothing official to report, but sources within the government said it was an attack. Like why would you paint that target on you? Israel already isn't exactly liked in the Middle East and what they're doing makes them seem suspicious. I can't see Israel doing this, but the way they're acting isn't doing them any favours.

I really hope it was just a really bad accident and not a terrorist act. The last thing we need kicking off right now is a war in the Middle East...err another war in the Middle East.

I'm pretty sure it was an accident. In some footage you can see smaller explosions (maybe even fireworks?) going off before the big one. I'm pretty sure it was a massive storage facility for Hezbollah though. Who stores 2700 tons of ammonium nitrate in one place?

Edit: Apparently the explosion in Tianjin was 800 tons of AN so this was about 300% more powerful. Based on this article, 2700 tons of AN is equivalent to 1.1KT of TNT. This (Beirut) was a nuclear-sized explosion and possibly the largest conventional explosion ever.

 

[Blitz24]

I would be extremely shocked if Israel were behind this, considering they have already offered humanitarian aid to Lebanon. In addition, this isn't really a type of attack the IDF would try. It really looks like a group was storing very combustible material in a location it should NOT have been stored.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

I would be extremely shocked if Israel were behind this, considering they have already offered humanitarian aid to Lebanon. In addition, this isn't really a type of attack the IDF would try. It really looks like a group was storing very combustible material in a location it should NOT have been stored.

I think it's pretty obviously an accident, despite what our illustrious Commander-in-Chief heard from "the generals". I've heard reports the initial fire may have started from welding.

 

[Blitz24]

I think it's pretty obviously an accident, despite what our illustrious Commander-in-Chief heard from "the generals". I've heard reports the initial fire may have started from welding.

What I am wondering though is why do you store that kind of material that close to residential areas?

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

What I am wondering though is why do you store that kind of material that close to residential areas?

Apparently it has been stored there for 6 years. I read elsewhere (can't find it now) that it was seized by the government from somebody...probably Hezbollah. But yes...who stores nuclear weapon-equivalent yield amounts of explosives in the city. It's mind numbingly stupid.

 

[Joey D]

Edit: Apparently the explosion in Tianjin was 800 tons of AN so this was about 300% more powerful. Based on this article, 2700 tons of AN is equivalent to 1.1KT of TNT. This (Beirut) was a nuclear-sized explosion and possibly the largest conventional explosion ever.

Wow, that really does give an idea how powerful this explosion was.

As for the most powerful conventional explosion, I think it's often cited as the "British Bang". I just looked it up and it was the equivalent of 3.2kt of TNT.

I think it's pretty obviously an accident, despite what our illustrious Commander-in-Chief heard from "the generals". I've heard reports the initial fire may have started from welding.

And that's where the conflicting reports are coming from. I hadn't seen what Trump had said, but it looks like he was the one that put the idea out there that it wasn't an accident. Looking more into and see that more info has come out since this afternoon, I'm inclined to think it was an accident.

 

[Blitz24]

Wow, that really does give an idea how powerful this explosion was.

As for the most powerful conventional explosion, I think it's often cited as the "British Bang". I just looked it up and it was the equivalent of 3.2kt of TNT.

Was also researching this. It turns out that the two most powerful explosions were tests in New Mexico in 1987: One was 4.0 kt of TNT, the other was 3.9 kt of TNT.

And that's where the conflicting reports are coming from. I hadn't seen what Trump had said, but it looks like he was the one that put the idea out there that it wasn't an accident. Looking more into and see that more info has come out since this afternoon, I'm inclined to think it was an accident.

It wouldn't really look good for him to insinuate that this wasn't an accident. He'd then be potentially throwing an ally under the bus.

 

[IfAndOr]

so this was about 300% more powerful. 2700 tons of AN is equivalent to 1.1KT of TNT.

I thought I'd take a look on the earthquake monitoring site and indeed the explosion registered as a magnitude 3.3 quake!

 

[Daz555]

The power of this explosion is hard to comprehend to be honest. Thoughts with those impacted. Such a tragegy.

 

[Joey D]

This is supposedly what the warehouse looked like:

 

[Touring Mars]

Apparently it has been stored there for 6 years. I read elsewhere (can't find it now) that it was seized by the government from somebody...probably Hezbollah. But yes...who stores nuclear weapon-equivalent yield amounts of explosives in the city. It's mind numbingly stupid.

As noted above, there has been suggestions that a nearby unit containing fireworks was ablaze prior to the explosion, and this spread to the units containing the ammonium nitrate.

One report suggested that welding work to improve security may have triggered the initial blaze. If both of these things is true, it would put this incident (albeit terrible and tragic) in the running for a God-level Darwin award.

 

[Dotini]

Roughly comparable historic disaster found in the pages of wikipedia, except in this case Frenchies and Texans got the Darwin Award.

The Texas City disaster was an industrial accident that occurred on April 16, 1947, in the Port of Texas City, Texas, at Galveston Bay. It was the deadliest industrial accident in U.S.history, and one of history's largest non-nuclear explosions. A mid-morning fire started on board the French-registered vessel SS Grandcamp (docked in the port), and detonated her cargo of about 2,200 tons (about 1,996 metric tons) of ammonium nitrate.[1] This started a chain reaction of fires and explosions in other ships and nearby oil-storage facilities, ultimately killing at least 581 people, including all but one member of the Texas City fire department.[2]

The disaster drew the first class action lawsuit against the United States government, on behalf of 8,485 victims, under the 1946 Federal Tort Claims Act.

 

[Joey D]

Port of Beruit before:

Port of Beruit After:

That crater is absolutely massive.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Wow. I was trying to tell which building was the one that housed the AN and then I saw the massive crater....Those poor firefighters on the scene didn't have a chance...

 

[GOTMAXPOWER]

Looking at the photos of the aftermath the grain silo is partially standing right beside the warehouse which exploded, from the colour of the ground on the satelite images it looks like that building shielded what looks like an heavily populated area, it's hard to imagine but without that building it could've been even worse:

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Man the way it destroyed the grain silo is something else. That was likely 3,000+psi concrete and in a form (arch perpendicular to the blast) that would have resisted it best. The blast was monstrous. It is very fortunate that the silo structure was there.

 

[Danoff]

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

This is quite surreal


The amount of destruction that happens instantaneously is crazy.

 

[novcze]

funny story... we sent our Urban Search and Rescue Team to help in Beirut because Lebanon asked for international help and our offer was accepted, but upon arrival Lebanese Army obstructed their work. But don't worry Lebanon we also sent money, I hope you refuse it as well.

 

[Blitz24]

funny story... we sent our Urban Search and Rescue Team to help in Beirut because Lebanon asked for international help and our offer was accepted, but upon arrival Lebanese Army obstructed their work. But don't worry Lebanon we also sent money, I hope you refuse it as well.

Government corruption working as intended here. This is a feature, not a bug.

 

[Danoff]

Am I reading this correctly? Blast yield for the MOAB (touted in Gulf War II) is 11 tons TNT. The blast yield for this disaster was 1000-1500 tonnes TNT? This website puts Beirut at 10% of Hiroshima.

https://indaily.com.au/news/2020/08/06/beirut-blast-one-of-biggest-ever-non-nuclear-explosions/


Edit:

Yup, I think I'm reading it right. This looks to be 100+ times the "Mother of All Bombs".

 

[Joey D]

Blast yield for the MOAB (touted in Gulf War II) is 11 tons TNT. The blast yield for this disaster was 1000-1500 tonnes TNT?

Yup, the MOAB has a yield of 11 tons, Russia has the FOAB (Father of All Bombs, presumably meaning it had relations with MOAB to produce the baby of all bombs) which has a yield of 44 tons, making it the most powerful non-nuclear conventional bomb. And yes, the Beruit explosion is estimated between 1-2 kilotons, making it on par with a small tactile nuke.

I've seen the video of the MOAB being used as well as some supposed test footage of the FOAB. I can't comprehend an explosion that's several hundred times more powerful than that. Hell, when they blow up ordnance in the West Desert I can hear them at my house that's probably 50-60 miles away and those are just conventional weapons.

 

[Grand Prix]

Am I reading this correctly? Blast yield for the MOAB (touted in Gulf War II) is 11 tons TNT. The blast yield for this disaster was 1000-1500 tonnes TNT? This website puts Beirut at 10% of Hiroshima.

https://indaily.com.au/news/2020/08/06/beirut-blast-one-of-biggest-ever-non-nuclear-explosions/


Edit:

Yup, I think I'm reading it right. This looks to be 100+ times the "Mother of All Bombs".

This reminded me of the 1917 Halifax Explosion.

The Halifax Explosion reportedly had the energy equivalent of about 2.9 kilotons of TNT. It was powerful enough to cause a tsunami, and level all buildings within a 800m radius. It also destroyed glass windows all over Halifax.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halifax_Explosion

The specific contents of the Mont Blanc:

The Mont Blanc was carrying 2,300 tons of picric acid, 200 tons of TNT, 35 tons of high-octane gasoline, and 10 tons of gun cotton, resulting in the blast.

https://discoverhalifaxns.com/halifax-explosion-facts/

 

[JKgo]

small tactile nuke

...I think you meant "small tactical nuke". Unless you were implying that the bomb likes to touch people?

Watching the videos and looking at the before/after photos still send shivers down my spine. It's just insane, really.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

A somewhat credible source is claiming that Ali Khamenei is in poor (very poor?) health and may be stepping down. While these sorts of claims are not new, the man is quite old and the rumors of his declining health (potentially prostate cancer) are pretty consistent. Could a watershed moment be approaching in the middle east? It's hard to know for sure, but Iranians sure seem to be tired of despotic theocracy.

Original source:

 

[PeterJB]

I guess it depends if there's any obvious successor set up that can ensure a smooth transition without leaving a power vacuum.

 

[HenrySwanson]

Ongoing situation in Israel is making a lot of people nervous.