The PC Turns 30 Today, IBM Says Its Nearly Obsolete

[Robin]

So 30 years ago today IBM launched the first PC, the 5150. It had a 4.77MHz Intel 8088 processor, 16KB of memory and ran DOS. IBM speaking today is basically saying the tower type PC is on the way out and it won't be many years before its complete obsolete.

Personal Computers are "going the way of the vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT and incandescent lightbulbs" according to Mark Dean, Chief Technology Officer for IBM in the Middle East and Africa.

Writing in a blog post on the 30th anniversary of the first IBM PC, Dean relates how when he helped design the first PC, "I didn't think I'd live long enough to witness its decline", but says that PCs are "no longer at the leading edge of computing."

There is very little reason for people to have a personal desktop PC anymore unless your a gamer or you do 3D modeling. Sure there will be a market for businesses which use intensive software for engineering, photography, movie editing etc. but for the mainstream market you can do everything you want on a laptop, smartphone, tablet, internet TV. Software has all but moved online and hardware has taken a massive back seat.

So I say goodbye to the giant heavy beige boxes...

Robin.

 

[Grayfox]

So I say goodbye to the giant heavy beige boxes..

Beige was the color of the PC towers in the 90's.

Most towers these days(98%) are black(not counting apple).

 

[Robin]

Beige was the color of the PC towers in the 90's.

Most towers these days(98%) are black(not counting apple).

Yeah, I'm not that stupid!

I was talking about the golden era of the PC's when they for more than 2 decades were beige.

 

[Grayfox]

Plus just because more people are using tablets/netbooks, notebooks and smart phones now does not mean the desktop will die even if IBM started the mainstream desktop computer.

 

[Famine]

I use a laptop all the time. But when I want to do work, I go upstairs, sit in the quiet of the PC room and use the desktop with the big screen, that runs twice the hardware at half the temperature and without the mousepad that means I can't rest my hands without dragging the cursor halfway down the screen and highlighting everything as it goes.

 

[Small_Fryz]

As someone who works cloesly with IBM, the future is in the cloud.

I think the powerful desktop has a limited life ahead of it.

 

[Brend]

Personally i'm more of an Netbook user but I still respect the uses of a desktop computer. :+

 

[Pupik]

I know this statement will be completely outdated in 5-10 years, so re-post and laugh later, but for the moment: I still like having a computational storage cabinet for all my thousands of files, thank you very much. I don't want to pay someone rent to store my stuff...admittedly, it's neat enough when you can access it anywhere, quite practical, but lot of copyright and privacy issues need to be addressed. When the manufacturers start putting some serious drive space (wake me up at 1TB, yet ~$500) on these tablets, and then we'll talk. For now, they're oversized MP3 players with large screens and limited (if any) removable storage. I'll get on board in 3-10 years until then.

My guess is that most businesses are not going to allow tablets to just vanish, they probably like the bulky size of PCs. I'm not anti-tablet (I prefer my 50-50 smartphone/laptop usage), but there's still a ways to go...the detached keyboard is much more useful for typing anything over three sentences, for example. I've never edited a photo on a smartphone or tablet, ether...but that's probably more because the hardware isn't commercially viable for the task yet. In 10 years, the PC will likely be a dinosaur of sorts, but I still envision that some people will enjoy or need the big monitor screen for various purposes, and making tablets much larger is rather impractical. A PC will probably just be wafer-thin.

 

[Griffith500]

Am I missing something? How is a laptop not a personal computer? A smartphone is personal, and it's a computer - same for the "tablet", the first of which were often referred to as tablet PCs.

The PC isn't dieing out, it's evolving. I don't see how it being portable changes the definition, especially given the underlying approach on all levels from the semi-conductor up to the "user" interface is fundamentally the same across all of these devices, modified to fit the specific requirements.

In this regard, "Desktop" etc. are now mere form-factors, no longer separate computing paradigms.


Now, cloud-based computing is different. That moves the power away from the user-held device and into the static systems (like the terminal / mainframe paradigm of old.) This is not what we're seeing (yet), for example, with smartphones; in fact the opposite is true, they are becoming increasingly powerful and versatile as self-contained devices. We're a long way off any real decline in the ownership of all types of "personal computers", i.e. back to the reign of "dumb" terminals that are only used as an interface to connect to the real, centralised power; certainly not "in the home" at least.
I can't see such a move being particulary popular amongst those who really depend on the power (and security, peace of mind, dependability etc.) of their own devices, either. Not to mention the networking and bandwidth limitations that need to be overcome (although it surely would be a great excuse for investment in new infrastructure). It'd be easy to kick-start as a fad (at the right time), of course, so I expect there will be serious competition when it all starts to go that way at a "consumer" level.

Let's hope data protection and privacy laws and practices are much improved by then, too.

 

[BobK]

I know this statement will be completely outdated in 5-10 years, so re-post and laugh later, but for the moment: I still like having a comparatively storage cabinet for all my thousands of files, thank you very much. I don't want to pay someone rent to store my stuff...admittedly, it's neat enough when you can access it anywhere, quite practical, but lot of copyright and privacy issues need to be addressed. When the manufacturers start putting some serious drive space (wake me up at 1TB, yet ~$500) on these tablets, and then we'll talk. For now, they're oversized MP3 players with large screens and limited (if any) removable storage. I'll get on board in 3-10 years until then.

^this.

I don't see myself replacing my desktops (note: plural) any time in the near future. I like my 20+ inch screens too much to replace them with laptops/notebooks/whatever (having said that, though, I can connect my tablet to my TV and have a 40" screen). I prefer a mouse to any mouse replacement I've seen. And I don't have to worry about dropping my desktops, or leaving them behind somewhere, or having them stolen (short of burglary, but then the computers would be far from my only concern).

As for the cloud, I feel that's being more forced on us than something that people want. Sure it's convenient, but I see the cloud as being more of a USB thumb drive replacement than hard disk replacement. Besides, my NAS has over 1000 times the storage space my cloud drive has. And I don't use any of the bandwidth that ISP's are starting to ration to access the NAS, unlike the cloud drive. I'm not even beginning to mention the privacy/data mining concerns here, or my data being held hostage by a corporation whose interests don't coincide with mine, etc, etc.

So yeah, I don't see my desktops being replaced any time soon.

 

[Robin]

Am I missing something? How is a laptop not a personal computer? A smartphone is personal, and it's a computer - same for the "tablet", the first of which were often referred to as tablet PCs.

Well its obvious they mean the PC is becoming obsolete is its traditional form. They mean bulky full ATX tower cases with large PSU's. For that matter everything with a processor can be described as a personal computer.

Desktop computers will be around for a while yet but they are now in micro form factors (like the Mac Mini). Also HTPC form factors have taken off in a big way but none of these are 'traditional'.

I'm sure most of those who still use full size PC's simply do because they currently have one.

If you were to upgrade and weren't a gamer or in a specialist field which requires certain hardware would you consider a full sized PC tower again? Most trends point to no.

Robin.

 

[Famine]

If you were to upgrade and weren't a gamer or in a specialist field which requires certain hardware would you consider a full sized PC tower again?

Hell yes. Beats melting my knees.

 

[Saidur_Ali]

I can't really see PC towers dying out. I mainly use laptops and my PC does not get used much at all but I still have one and it is much more powerful than most laptops out there as far as gaming is concerned and it cost me less than a top end netbook. I can only really see cloud computing working with low end devices like netbooks or an aid to businesses for employees on the go while still retaining base units at offices.

Next year will be a very good year for portable computing due to die shrinks of things going to 22nm and 28nm which should increase battery life and performance by a lot and smartphones should finally be very fast and also have longer battery life. However it is also good for desktops as you will be able to get a lot of performance for not much money and get cooler temperatures when idling too just like portable devices.

 

[Vince_Fiero]

I believe indeed the statement is more made in the context that we are evolving to a thin client (probably some tablet or internet enabled TV) that uses services (probably cloud based), which is away from the Personal Computer = personal disk space, personal CPU power.

There are still people using old fashioned type writers, there will be people using PCs a long time from now.

The revolution will be in the office space, where the PC is not the interface expected for the future. IBM has a focus on this remember the B = Business.

 

[Griffith500]

Well its obvious they mean the PC is becoming obsolete is its traditional form. They mean bulky full ATX tower cases with large PSU's. For that matter everything with a processor can be described as a personal computer.

Desktop computers will be around for a while yet but they are now in micro form factors (like the Mac Mini). Also HTPC form factors have taken off in a big way but none of these are 'traditional'.

I'm sure most of those who still use full size PC's simply do because they currently have one.

If you were to upgrade and weren't a gamer or in a specialist field which requires certain hardware would you consider a full sized PC tower again? Most trends point to no.

Robin.

What's "obvious" is they're gearing up to sell "the new era of computing" to the casual user, i.e. those who only stab facebook and the like. Of course, smartphones can do that already, so IBM and co. probably want in on that somehow, if they're not already. Remember, IBM sold personal computers specifically to the general public (when a "computer" was better known as a work tool) all those years ago; along with Apple and many others, of course. We'll be seeing something similar when it comes time for "cloud" computing to go mainstream, too. It'll be a mess, I'd wager.

Then again, anyone who uses computers for work may have an entirely different agenda, and these could well still be best served by "traditional" computers. In a company, that's all down to the resident hardware / software / infrastructure people, on a case-by-case basis. Many companies are already using virtualisation technology for their computing needs, of course. Smaller companies and individuals are probably different again.

 

[Crispy]

I think the only reason I don't use my desktop is because it has a nasty virus that pops back every time I restart my computer. I can manage to get it away, it just comes right back.

 

[Camaroyenko]

Wow- 16 KB is allot!

 

[Leonidae@MFT]

I will never join the laptop users, did you hear me? NEVER!

 

[Stevisiov]

I actually like sitting at a desk, typing on a desktop keyboard, looking at a large monitor and using an actual mouse.

I grew up using towers and I don't particularly like trading usability for portability. I could get used to having a laptop for being out and about but I would always want to come back to me tower set-up at home.

 

[MikeTheHockeyFan]

Windows 8 will have a ton of cloud-based features, Apple is pushing iCloud...you may have a local backup in 5 years but you will most likely be storing your files in a datacentre somewhere many miles from your home.

Look at the ubiquity of Dropbox. Look at the proliferation of broadband.

Ten years ago I actually SAVED the install files for large programs I downloaded so that I could re-install them without re-downloading. Seems ridiculous now.

Your files (and quite possibly the majority of your processing power) will not be in your house unless you work in a very specific industry. Media professionals may still have that XX-core tower at home. but the majority of us will have a tiny box that plugs into the wall and delivers content from the cloud instantly.

Tweaking the registry, cleaning out installed files that are not automatically uninstalled, installing 3rd party programs to manage your desktop icons...several years under iOS and its well-designed devices makes these things seem just archaic by comparison. Operating systems will be getting simpler whether we like it or not.

 

[Crispy]

I don't want no stinkin' Cloud!

I also grew up with Desktops, thats one reason that if I carry my Laptop anywhere, you WILL see a mouse. Why? It's just more normal for me. Plus that cloud thing sounds like a huge personal privacy violation. Basically someone could look at my cloud and find out what I have downloaded, stored, and basically done on my computer? My friend will be in huge federal trouble if this is the case.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

Well its obvious they mean the PC is becoming obsolete is its traditional form. They mean bulky full ATX tower cases with large PSU's. For that matter everything with a processor can be described as a personal computer

So micro-ATX and mid towers are the future...

I actually like sitting at a desk, typing on a desktop keyboard, looking at a large monitor and using an actual mouse.

I grew up using towers and I don't particularly like trading usability for portability. I could get used to having a laptop for being out and about but I would always want to come back to me tower set-up at home.

+2

 

[Robin]

I actually like sitting at a desk, typing on a desktop keyboard, looking at a large monitor and using an actual mouse.

I grew up using towers and I don't particularly like trading usability for portability. I could get used to having a laptop for being out and about but I would always want to come back to me tower set-up at home.

Being able to use a keyboard, large monitor and a mouse is not limited to a tower case... I don't know why people are finding it difficult to separate the two. You can still enjoy the benefits of desktop computing without the 'box'.

So micro-ATX and mid towers are the future...

Actually things known as net-tops and non standard desktop setups are the future (basically non modifiable innards of a netbook packaged in a different way). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nettop

And what was the : dunce : for?

 

[wfooshee]

My issue with "The Cloud" for apps and storage, is pretty much everyone's paranoia. Who sees the files, who fixes them when the storage breaks, how do I get them back if the provider goes tango uniform, and what do I do after a hurricane and I have no web access for 11 days?

There are services available as a resource that are absolutely where they need to be, in "the cloud." Google Maps, and Google Street View, for example. But why should I entrust my personal data, tax returns, bank information, whatever, to whoever happens to have the best deal on "cloud" storage, and who will be able to look at that stuff?

As for the PC, I feel that reports of its death are greatly exaggerated. Sure, the mega tower is not what everybody needs, and it's not even what a small percentage of people need. System boards carry all the basic I/O, memory, and processor needs, all stuff that used to go into expansion slots. Almost nobody needs the expansion slots any more.

But I don't want to give them up, either. I might want to build another PVR machine someday, with 3 or 4 tuner cards. Or I'll have to add a Firewire card to a machine that didn't come with it built in. And storage. I need drive bays! Not everybody does, but I do!

So: I'm paranoid about putting my "stuff" somewhere I hae no control over, and I don't want to give up a buildable device.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

And what was the : dunce : for?

I was being picky about your usage of "full tower". I assumed you included mid tower and micro-ATX along in there.

 

[turboash78]

I draft with AutoCAD and model with Revit all day... Not possible with a puny tablet.

 

[Coxis]

I can't picture myself actually living in this world without, at any point of my life, having a PC.

Happy birthday.

 

[MikeTheHockeyFan]

My issue with "The Cloud" for apps and storage, is pretty much everyone's paranoia. Who sees the files, who fixes them when the storage breaks, how do I get them back if the provider goes tango uniform, and what do I do after a hurricane and I have no web access for 11 days?

There are services available as a resource that are absolutely where they need to be, in "the cloud." Google Maps, and Google Street View, for example. But why should I entrust my personal data, tax returns, bank information, whatever, to whoever happens to have the best deal on "cloud" storage, and who will be able to look at that stuff?

As for the PC, I feel that reports of its death are greatly exaggerated. Sure, the mega tower is not what everybody needs, and it's not even what a small percentage of people need. System boards carry all the basic I/O, memory, and processor needs, all stuff that used to go into expansion slots. Almost nobody needs the expansion slots any more.

But I don't want to give them up, either. I might want to build another PVR machine someday, with 3 or 4 tuner cards. Or I'll have to add a Firewire card to a machine that didn't come with it built in. And storage. I need drive bays! Not everybody does, but I do!

So: I'm paranoid about putting my "stuff" somewhere I hae no control over, and I don't want to give up a buildable device.

At any time a government can subpoena Google and have access to the entire contents of your Gmail account.

At any time one of your neighbours can accuse you of downloading child pornography and the police can walk into your home and walk away with your Desktop PC tower.

I see no difference there whatsoever.

 

[Robin]

I was being picky about your usage of "full tower". I assumed you included mid tower and micro-ATX along in there.

Not at all, MTAX has taken off in a big way (especially for HTPC setups) and half or slimline cases are right in there competing with Net-tops as a slightly cheaper option.

I'm only talking about full size ATX. Most of the mainstream market buyers have no need for a huge mobo and a case that can hold 7 hard drives! It's very much a niche now outside of business uses, which is why accessory and case makers have moved to make products which appeal more to the enthusiast crowd.

Robin.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

It's very much a niche now outside of business uses, which is why accessory and case makers have moved to make products which appeal more to the enthusiast crowd.

Robin.

I wasn't aware that it was ever more than a niche or that it was in any way popular. Even the Antec 900 series, which is pretty darn big, is a mid tower.