The PC Turns 30 Today, IBM Says Its Nearly Obsolete

[bergauk]

Not at all, MTAX has taken off in a big way (especially for HTPC setups) and half or slimline cases are right in there competing with Net-tops as a slightly cheaper option.

I'm only talking about full size ATX. Most of the mainstream market buyers have no need for a huge mobo and a case that can hold 7 hard drives! It's very much a niche now outside of business uses, which is why accessory and case makers have moved to make products which appeal more to the enthusiast crowd.

Robin.

So why does IBM make such a massive stink about it? I know of only a few people with full size cases. They can stay in their niche. Why try and make everyone think that we're switching over to something better when we all know that the technologies haven't even proven themselves?


For the record. Cloud based applications/storage? On Comcast Cable? On Broadband? The minimum affordable price for Comcast is right around 60 a month for a tv/cable combo. No one is going to go higher than that. Another thing about this would be the fact that ISP's RATION out bandwidth. Comcast has a 250 GB monthly usage cap. What happens when I need more? What happens when I blaze through that in a week or two? Now I'm stuck with a box that cannot connect the internet because all my bandwidth got eaten up by the cloud.

Well that worked great didn't it?

 

[Famine]

Most of the mainstream market buyers have no need for a huge mobo and a case that can hold 7 hard drives!

Eleven. It'll be the basis for any upgrades or wholly new innards.

What happens when I need more? What happens when I blaze through that in a week or two? Now I'm stuck with a box that cannot connect the internet because all my bandwidth got eaten up by the cloud.

Indeed. For personal computing "the cloud" (whatever happened to the phrase "distributed computing on multiply redundant devices"?) is a great thing to backup to, not rely on - but I see no reason why "the cloud" and the home desktop are mutually exclusive.

 

[GTR3mh]

The desktop PC will still be relevant for many years to come. Nobody that works with VFX, CAD and other graphically intensive tasks will want something as weak as a laptop. Computer games are also still best played on a powerful desktop computer. The are also other kinds of people who will always appreciate the openess of the desktop PC device. How many laptops can you buy with an excellent sound card? Who's going to need a smaller, more expensive server? Will people really appreciate getting complex calculations completed on a laptop?

The desktop computer is too powerful to be abandoned any time soon. The laptop, tablet and smartphone market are much stronger than the desktop PC market, that's a fact. However, it should probably be noted that people that currently use desktop computers are likely to continue using desktop computers. Power users need powerful hardware. The common folk can will do just fine with their weaker devices, as they don't need the power. Nobody says you can't own both either.

As for cloud computing, IBM is likely right. Cloud computing is the future. What they forgot to say was 'distant future'. Not until everyone in the world is on fibre can it happen. Current internet services are simply too slow to support it. Bandwidth caps don't help the issue. It's not nice to have a 3 second input delay and then not being able to use your computer after a week, is it?

 

[Moot]

The desktop PC will still be relevant for many years to come. Nobody that works with VFX, CAD and other graphically intensive tasks will want something as weak as a laptop.

What specs do you need?
You can get powerful laptops:
PROCESSOR Intel® Core™ i7 Processor 2820QM (2.30Ghz, 8MB, 4C)
GRAPHICS CARD Dual 2GB GDDR5 NVIDIA® GeForce® GTX 580M SLI™
MEMORY 16384MB (4x4GB) 1600MHz DDR3 Dual Channel
HARD DRIVE 512GB SSD

 

[Dan_]

Not only the desktop lost it's share for the casual user, the notebooks are on their way to decline too. Tablets and mobile phones can get almost all of your tasks done ( reading e-mails, surfing the web, social networking, music, at cetera ) and that's what the majority of people do on a computer.

Today I use a desktop at home and a notebook to do stuff while going out, but it's safe to assume that my next home computer will be a powerful notebook and my next mobile computer will be a tablet. Desktops are getting pointless, only a fraction of people who actually need processing power will use them, even gaming can be done on notebooks nowadays.

 

[DK]

I use a Compaq Mini laptop, but I'm not a PC gamer nor do I use CAD programmes. There is a desktop computer in my house, but it doesn't have an Internet connection and it's as slow as hell.

That being said, happy belated birthday to the PC. It probably has another decade and a half in front of it before becoming totally useless.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

Gaming will likely stay on traditional desktops for a while, since powerful components require good cooling. My laptop, with integrated graphics, got scorching hot just by watching youtube videos.

 

[Griffith500]

At any time a government can subpoena Google and have access to the entire contents of your Gmail account.

At any time one of your neighbours can accuse you of downloading child pornography and the police can walk into your home and walk away with your Desktop PC tower.

I see no difference there whatsoever.

It's not the government I'm worried about. Remember all that "lulzsec" business recently? That sort of thing is happening all the time, and a personal data theft today may not rear its ugly head for years - criminals aren't all stupid. As I said, I hope there are plans to improve the data-protection and privacy laws across the globe.

Also, gmail ≠ my personal file storage on my computers, by any stretch.

Not only the desktop lost it's share for the casual user, the notebooks are on their way to decline too. Tablets and mobile phones can get almost all of your tasks done ( reading e-mails, surfing the web, social networking, music, at cetera ) and that's what the majority of people do on a computer.

Today I use a desktop at home and a notebook to do stuff while going out, but it's safe to assume that my next home computer will be a powerful notebook and my next mobile computer will be a tablet. Desktops are getting pointless, only a fraction of people who actually need processing power will use them, even gaming can be done on notebooks nowadays.

Yeah, in the same way that I can play Doom on my mobile phone...

The bottom line is, those who are migrating away from proper Desktop PCs are mostly those who never really needed its power in the first place. Most people already use their PC-like devices as simple portals to the ether anyway, a tragic waste of their potential (hey-ho).

On a personal note, I'll be sticking with whatever the traditional PC will become, for gaming and for work, since I do a whole range of stuff (usually at the same time) that any other hardware would crawl to a halt pretty quickly. Plus I like the ergonomics of a big desk, full-sized keyboard and mouse, with a few large-ish screens at high resolution, as opposed to a tiny screen on which I have to fumble through layers of UI with my fingers, or a tiny keyboard with poor quality keys and questionable ergonomics; compactness and mobility aren't issues for me, really.

 

[Saidur_Ali]

Not at all, MTAX has taken off in a big way (especially for HTPC setups) and half or slimline cases are right in there competing with Net-tops as a slightly cheaper option.

I'm only talking about full size ATX. Most of the mainstream market buyers have no need for a huge mobo and a case that can hold 7 hard drives! It's very much a niche now outside of business uses, which is why accessory and case makers have moved to make products which appeal more to the enthusiast crowd.

Robin.

My first Windows PC back in 1999 I think was MATX. I don't think full sized ATX towers were that popular for home or even business users. Prices are going down for PC parts, I just bought a 2TB hard drive today and it was less than £50 delivered. It beats cloud storage if you buy a few more to backup data up and store in different places. I know you can do this without desktop PCs and external storage but it is good to have one computer with all the data. Performance per watt for the money is also getting better for CPU and GPU's. It is easier to upgrade desktop, no reason to buy new PC just because a new GPU is out unlike for laptops. You can upgrade the higher end laptops but it is usually cheaper buying new again.

The desktop PC will still be relevant for many years to come. Nobody that works with VFX, CAD and other graphically intensive tasks will want something as weak as a laptop.

Laptops are actually very powerful. It just costs more to get the power especially for graphics. The top end notebooks are close to a mid to top end gaming desktops as far as CPU and GPU goes but costs more to get that level of performance.

Gaming will likely stay on traditional desktops for a while, since powerful components require good cooling. My laptop, with integrated graphics, got scorching hot just by watching youtube videos.

Even £500 laptops you can buy today are probably more powerful than a PS3 for gaming while also being quite cool.

Yeah, in the same way that I can play Doom on my mobile phone...

The bottom line is, those who are migrating away from proper Desktop PCs are mostly those who never really needed its power in the first place. Most people already use their PC-like devices as simple portals to the ether anyway, a tragic waste of their potential (hey-ho).

On a personal note, I'll be sticking with whatever the traditional PC will become, for gaming and for work, since I do a whole range of stuff (usually at the same time) that any other hardware would crawl to a halt pretty quickly. Plus I like the ergonomics of a big desk, full-sized keyboard and mouse, with a few large-ish screens at high resolution, as opposed to a tiny screen on which I have to fumble through layers of UI with my fingers, or a tiny keyboard with poor quality keys and questionable ergonomics; compactness and mobility aren't issues for me, really.

Laptops can game well, it justs costs a lot more than desktops for the same performance levels.

What PC do you have if other hardware would crawl to a halt doing the stuff you do?

 

[Griffith500]

...


Laptops can game well, it justs costs a lot more than desktops for the same performance levels.

What PC do you have if other hardware would crawl to a halt doing the stuff you do?

There's your answer

Laptops (well, most "computers", in relative terms) are incredibly powerful, I won't deny that, but if you need power and battery life, well... Serious money.
Why would I do that, when I have no need for mobility, and my budget would get me better hardware, with no real drawback (for me), in the larger form-factor?

Anyway, my personal requirements for hardware are not really important. My point really was that many people don't need a fraction of the power they have in their gadgets, so dumb terminals may well be fine for them. For everyone else (myself included), I'm not so sure.

Also: hardware performance is indeed increasing, but so are minimum system requirements. I wonder why that is...

 

[bass264]

The best type of PC is the one that's custom built, like mine.

 

[Keef]

I use a laptop all the time. But when I want to do work, I go upstairs, sit in the quiet of the PC room and use the desktop with the big screen, that runs twice the hardware at half the temperature and without the mousepad that means I can't rest my hands without dragging the cursor halfway down the screen and highlighting everything as it goes.

...and then deleting an entire paragraph because the designer didn't offset the mousepad to the left, inline with the space bar. I'm terrified of typing anything on my HP DM1.

As for the tower PC, it definitely has life left in it. Maybe not for the trend-setters who can afford the latest technology and don't require monumental processing power, gaming performance, muscle for graphic or industrial design, etc. Recently I just bought a new tower case specifically for its build quality and upgradeability. I plan to keep it for quite a long time.

 

[Dapper]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjhB6J23Qjs

I tend to believe this guy.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

Even £500 laptops you can buy today are probably more powerful than a PS3 for gaming while also being quite cool.

You can also build 2 desktops that are faster for the price of a high-end notebook. And with the notebook you can't change cards later, so laptops for gaming seem lose-lose to me.

 

[Vince_Fiero]

Just some comments on the cloud:

1) Who does not use: Hotmail, Googlemail, Flickr, Picasa, facebook etc.. these are typical cloud services; the statement is this will become the standard. Actually you now have GoogleDocs, thinkfree, etc...

2) Cloud does not always mean free open world wide cloud.
Open free cloud: you do not know what happens.
Restricted cloud: you get some restrictions to use the service and some guarantees in return. (e.g. accounting as a service for companies)
Private cloud: although users are using this flexibly, there is a governing body (e.g. company) that controls everything and it is fully protected from the outside.

It is the last 2 options that are the big move for the moment (in companies!).
Expected for the future can be that occasional private users will choose to have a cheaper small interface and paid service as you use (small amounts invoicing) compared to high cost personal set up. Intensive users might not adopt that strategy, but the masses just might.

This will make the PC even more expensive (volumes go down) and the public for the PC even more selective, thus the market even more difficult for suppliers.

 

[Griffith500]

Data security is rarely taken lightly by companies; it's more often the individual that screws up. Hence why the open nature of a lot of cloud services is a touch worrying for me, since I know the security of my data is effectively my responsibility, so long as these established "open cloud services" have free reign over the data they collect. As it matures, hopefully, better regulation and control of the flow of such data will come, too. Although, that will be detrimental to those industries who make it their business to deal in such information, so I'm not sure who will win that battle.

As for the company-contracted cloud services, this is really nothing new in terms of out-sourced data-handling etc., so it's all already pretty much established "on paper", as it were, and many of the "agreements" are likely extensions of this historical practice.

It's the "public" stuff that needs the real work, in my opinion.

 

[NissanSkylineN1]

Hey, how about Overclocking? You can't do that with anything other than a desktop.

 

[Casio]

Hey, how about Overclocking? You can't do that with anything other than a desktop.

Not true. You can overclock anything. Laptops, mobile phones, Calculators...

 

[nick09]

I hardly think I'm going to move from my desktop. I have my Mini-ITX PC(Read 4 inches tall on it's side, 12 inches in length, and 10 inches wide) hooked up to a HDMI switcher to my 34" HDTV. My computer has a 200watt PSU with a Core 2 Duo E7500 CPU(2.93GHz and takes 65watts max) and integrated GeForce 9300 graphics(overclocked slightly and takes 110watts max). I plan on upgrading to the top 8-core Bulldozer CPU that is coming out Q1 2012 and the processor only takes 125watts which means I take even less energy when I'm playing games or blu-ray movies. The proformance per the watt is becoming even smaller these days and the CPU dies get even smaller creating less heat. I'm afraid that the Tower PC is not going to be obsolete in 5-10 years and I'll still be building PC's even if other people consider me odd for when I could buy one.

A laptop or netbook has their own propriety form factor even if it's not within a standard for how they should be shaped. It's still a PC and I've seen people talk like it's not a computer. It has a CPU, GPU, and hard drive in it the same as a "Desktop" computer. This also means that it can also generate heat when you use it and it's improper practice to use it on a bed or couch without a solid surface(it's true my friend's laptop was ruined when his brother was using it on the couch without a solid surface. The heatsink and the AC plug melted together rendering the laptop useless). Then when the performance of a laptop does not meet the minimum requirements you are forced to get a new laptop and maybe recycle the old one(Many computers even today are not recycled when you can drop by a Best Buy and have it recycled for free as it's easy to walk to the trash can instead of driving up to 30 miles depending where you live before it even meets the manufacturing plant that breaks down the parts).

The Cloud? No thanks. I'll just take my $65 640GB shockproof and waterproof external hard drive with me if I want to move files. I'd rather not rely on a company to make sure my files are fine and what if I don't have a internet connection and I can't get access to my important files? Or rather someone hacks into the company steals my files and spreads information on the internet about me and what I had stored on the server? I'd simply be screwed and be homeless if I were to stupidly store bank files on the server.

 

[Grayfox]

Hey, how about Overclocking? You can't do that with anything other than a desktop.

Overclocking laptops is easy, you just need the right software.

 

[nick09]

Overclocking laptops is easy, you just need the right software.

Only problem is that the heatsinks may only be made to take a certain overclock(if a higher end model shares the same heatsink while having a hotter CPU) or none at all. I don't overclock since it's more prone to heat than a desktop.

 

[sumbrownkid]

I hate how sometimes Mac users say "Oh it's a Mac" when I ask them if I can use their computer.

It's like saying "Oh it's a BMW" when I ask to borrow a car.

 

[Vince_Fiero]

Hey, how about Overclocking? You can't do that with anything other than a desktop.

Your interface should not matter.

When you send a calculation request to a supercomputer in the cloud that is not very busy, you will not worry about overclocking.

On the other hand, if you want prime graphics (car modeling) etc... you might need some more local power.

Now if you are in a waiting queue in a cloud (low priority user), you might get upset with the calculation power you get in busy periods. You can not have it all, cheap or heavy guarantees on performance.

 

[dice1998]

You can't do that with anything other than a desktop.

I'll just note that my phone's overclocked.

 

[alexleighton]

The pc will never be obsolete, all this shiny new technology starts life on a big ol clunky desktop. The highest end components aren't getting smaller, in fact many are getting bigger (graphics cards especially).

Oh and my tower is still beige. The innards have all been replaced several times, but I've never seen a reason to get rid of a perfectly good tower, especially since it sits behind my desk out of sight. Plus, it still has a floppy drive! It brings back memories of when I first got it, and I could play NHL 99 and watch all the player's faces randomly change between like 5 presets, good times.

 

[Vince_Fiero]

Did anyone notice that HP seems to agree?

HP confirms it will explore spinning off PC business

 

[Dapper]

The pc will never be obsolete...

Denial is more than just a river in Africa... Unless you consider the cell sized computer-esque things that will be flowing in our blood stream, doing everything from biological functions to killing off foreign bodies or adding to our brain's computing power, is a PC.

 

[Crispy]

Denial is more than just a river in Africa... Unless you consider the cell sized computer-esque things that will be flowing in our blood stream, doing everything from biological functions to killing off foreign bodies or adding to our brain's computing power, is a PC.

Are you suggesting we should become Macs?

 

[Griffith500]

Did anyone notice that HP seems to agree?

HP confirms it will explore spinning off PC business

I'd say HP sells the majority of its "PCs" to businesses, often on three-to-five year plans, and here they're talking specifically about reducing the sale of "low margin" PCs, so those "budget" PCs sold to the public. Additionally, it seems this could be them testing the water, to see where the market for "cloud" infrastructure is at this present time. Note that businesses are already seriously considering "cloud" services, if not already using some form of it in some way.

The "demand" for such services seems to be trickling down from the top tiers of management, perhaps for public image reasons, or for impressing clients etc. but seems to be getting stuck when it reaches the technical levels. I.e. those who deal with the data and its security on a day-to-day basis. That might just be grumpy-old-man syndrome or general inertia, but there is a sense that "cloud" services are seen more as a redundancy solution than a direct replacement for existing systems, especially when hardware is so cheap, and infrastructure can be administered by a skeleton crew remotely already. Of course, it depends on exactly what services you need.

@ Dapper: how much more personal can a computer get?

 

[Borna12345]

I will never trade my tower for a laptop. I prefer having not my knees on fire, thank you.