Understanding the Big-12 South Picture (2008)

[Danoff]

Being a Texas fan has been a stressful adventure this year... and there's a lot of stress left to come.

There are 4 big teams in the big-12 south. Here are their current BCS rankings:

Texas: 1
OU: 4
OSU: 7
Texas Tech: 9

Here are their current records:
Texas: 8-0
- Big Wins against: 1 (OU), 11 (Missouri), 6 (OSU)
- Big Losses against: None
- Tough upcoming matchups: TTech
OU: 7-1
- Big Wins against: 24 (TCU), 16 (Kansas)
- Big Losses against: 5 (Texas)
- Tough upcoming matchups: OSU, TTech
OSU: 7-1
- Big Wins against: 3 (Missouri)
- Big Losses against: 1 (Texas)
- Tough upcoming matchups: TTech, OU
TTech: 8-0
- Big Wins against: 19 (Kansas)
- Big Losses against: None
- Tough upcoming matchups: Texas, OSU, OU


Texas's game this weekend against Tech gives them a chance to effectively clinch the Big-12 south (barring any mishaps down the road). But this will be Texas's 4th straight top 11 ranked opponent. Never in school history had they beaten 3 consecutive RANKED opponents. So I don't anticipate my 'horns being able to go 4 straight. Which leaves us with some interesting scenarios.

If Tech wins out, they're in great shape. But I don't see that happening either. They've had some shaky games against some easy opponents and they've got a rough string of games to face right now. Not to mention the fact that they haven't beaten anyone good yet.

If anyone is going to win out, I think it's OU. And if OU does win out, Texas is in for the Big-12 south. If OSU wins out, Texas will go for the Big-12 south (unless Tech wins all but OSU).

In case you didn't follow that, here's a flowchart:

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/the_sweep/posts/17944


More in a minute.

 

[Danoff]

In case it's not clear why the Big-12 south champ matters, it's because there is a very high likelihood that one of these 4 teams will be playing for the national championship against Penn this year.

Here's what I think will happen:
Tech beats Texas (they just can't go 4 straight)
OSU beats Tech (Tech isn't that good, OSU really is)
OU beats Tech (again, they aren't that good)
OSU vs. OU doesn't matter. Texas is in for Big-12 south.

2nd most likely scenario:
Tech beats Texas (they just can't go 4 straight)
OSU beats Tech (Tech isn't that good, OSU really is)
Tech beats OU (Tech is also erratic)
OSU beats OU (if Tech can do it...)

That results in a 3-way tie for the Big-12 south, in which case the top ranked team goes to the championship game. I believe the top ranked team would be Texas over OSU and Tech. But it would depend on whether Texas dropped below OSU after losing to Tech.

There are a handful of ways for Tech to go for the Big-12 south over Texas. But most of them involve Tech either running the table, or Tech and Texas to be the only 1 loss teams. I don't think it's likely for Tech and Texas to be the only 1-loss teams. So Tech needs to run the table, and it's a hard table to run.

I guess Texas is in pretty good shape then... not going to stop me from being nervous as hell this weekend.

 

[JohnBM01]

The Big XII South is usually very competitive every year. Texas at Texas Tech this weekend will determine who's for real. Texas' biggest threat every year is always Oklahoma. ALWAYS. But with Texas Tech playing much better, this game takes on about as much significance as Texas/OU. Texas has beaten every team in this list except Texas Tech. If they get past Texas Tech, then Texas will be the outright Big XII South representative. They'll pack their bags to head to Kansas City for the Big XII Championship game.

Here's Texas' remaining schedule:
11/1: at Texas Tech
11/8: Baylor
11/15: at Kansas
11/27: Texas A&M

Baylor and Texas A&M will still play spoiler. The game at Kansas could be a trap game. With the four aforementioned teams, you may need a mini-tournament to see who's the best of these four teams.

 

[Danoff]

Texas at Texas Tech this weekend will determine who's for real.

The problem with just saying that Texas needs to beat Tech to go on is that Texas has just finished up a three week stretch of beating numbers 1, 11, and 6. So asking them to beat another number 6 this weekend is an awful lot. Texas has already proven they're for real. Even if they lose to Tech.

It looks to me like it's not necessary either. Tech still has some major hurdles to overcome, even if they beat Texas. And the possibility of a 3-way tie is an interesting predicament.

 

[Danoff]

2nd most likely scenario:
Tech beats Texas (they just can't go 4 straight)
OSU beats Tech (Tech isn't that good, OSU really is)
Tech beats OU (Tech is also erratic)
OSU beats OU (if Tech can do it...)

Switch OSU and OU and I think you've got the new most likely scenario. I don't think Tech will be able to overcome OU, and, given that they embarrassed OSU, I think OU will be able to take OSU.

If that happens, we're looking at a 3-way tie in the Big-12 south. Highest BCS ranking would determine who would go to the Big-12 championship game.

It looks to me like the highest BCS ranking might be OU (big wins late in the season). But Texas has a stronger schedule, more quality wins, and a marginally more forgivable loss. It's not clear to me who will be ranked higher in the BCS.

 

[Danoff]

^ Exactly how it went down.

OU gets the nod over Texas despite so many reasons why that should not be the case. It's a painful end for Texas fans who get to watch two teams they proved they're better than play for the conference championship.

I still can't believe we use this moronic system to determine NCAA football championship contenders.