Where will your DR be months from now? A prediction with Microsoft Excel & Kudos Prime (w/tutorial)

[phil_75]

I'm guessing the 13,500 DR loss is a point reset and you could get it back quickly when your SR goes back up.

The 8 point win is ridiculous, no matter who you are driving against. Were you matched with low DR drivers because your SR was low? I think a win should give a minimum of 100 points.

No, i was DR S SR S, this has happened quite a few times whre im pared with much lower ranks.

The 13,500 DR loss i couldn't get back as i was at 63,500 but got reset to 50,000.

Took me lots of hard work and time to get those 13,500 when you are S rank and to have it all taken away in one single race was gutting.

 

[Robben]

No, i was DR S SR S, this has happened quite a few times whre im pared with much lower ranks.

The 13,500 DR loss i couldn't get back as i was at 63,500 but got reset to 50,000.

Took me lots of hard work and time to get those 13,500 when you are S rank and to have it all taken away in one single race was gutting.

I guess you came last in a grid of 19 A + you?

 

[TheGeologist]

I'm not sure how much 'fun' a statistical model that has no real relationship with real data and incorrectly predicts things that cannot happen is...

About as much fun as a model that predicts when elephants will finally design a rocket to the moon would be? LOL

Just because it isn't the most accurate doesn't mean this topic is pointless. It has sparked interesting discussion.

It was fun for me to create, write and debate about. Helluva lot more fun than working on my thesis like I should have been doing!

And I'm okay with being wrong. I thought this method was better than it was, but people have brought up important observations and I appreciate that.

Also your analogy makes no sense. Kudos prime stats and this algrithom are on related subjects, elephants and rockets are unrelated.

 

[simsimsheree]

I disagree. It is possible to show the fossil record of the evolution of elephants. Therefore, another incorrect model could take that and extrapolate the point in the far future when elephants finally get to the moon! And that prediction would be as equally invalid as your model of DR extrapolation.

 

[Alpha Cipher]

I disagree. It is possible to show the fossil record of the evolution of elephants. Therefore, another incorrect model could take that and extrapolate the point in the far future when elephants finally get to the moon! And that prediction would be as equally invalid as your model of DR extrapolation.

Agh. Let us have fun

 

[John Crellin]

I disagree. It is possible to show the fossil record of the evolution of elephants. Therefore, another incorrect model could take that and extrapolate the point in the far future when elephants finally get to the moon! And that prediction would be as equally invalid as your model of DR extrapolation.

See! Now your having fun

 

[TheGeologist]

I disagree. It is possible to show the fossil record of the evolution of elephants. Therefore, another incorrect model could take that and extrapolate the point in the far future when elephants finally get to the moon! And that prediction would be as equally invalid as your model of DR extrapolation.

No no no no no. Now I'm getting annoyed... My account name on here isn't because it sounds cool, I am literally a geological scientist. I am well informed of the fossil record, but am not aware of how you could extract fossil data to the point at which elephants get to the moon. Could you please inform me? Because so far in my years of study, I have never had a professor suggest such a thing. I would love to hear your side because it must be brand new, exciting research (this is sarcasm).

Just because the method has its flaws does not mean that is suddenly and completely a total loss. Have you read the OP? This is a simple statistical program that shows your linear trend in your data. It isn't an exact Dr predictor where it will let you know that "you will lose 200 Dr tomorrow, so don't play." It simply shows your trend thus far, and where you will go if you stay on the trend. Things that can knock you off that trend such as steeper competition, plateauing and less Dr pts at higher levels are all valid and HAVE ALREADY BEEN mentioned in the OP. Once again, this is not the "end all, tell all" method. One isn't possible due to numerous variables.

This is just for fun, and this topic has since sparked interesting debates (of which you are derailing) on more complex ways to possibly predict Dr.

 

[phil_75]

I guess you came last in a grid of 19 A + you?

I was in first, got rammed off at first corner then got back on track in the middle of a destruction Derby, got angry and rage quit lol. (first time i ever quit in 225 races which bothers me as what if i waas disconnected by no fault of my own? Should be allowed one disconnect a month imo)

 

[Robben]

what if i waas disconnected by no fault of my own?

I lost 1300 DR for getting disconnected on Monday even though the game knew I didn't have a bad connection as it put me back in to GT Sport as opposed to booted out completely.

Basically you just count as a DNF

 

[nuu1212]

Should have said this earlier to avoid damage:
The soft sciences do statistics/data analysis -> dangerous territory!

The Physicist

 

[Famine]

Should have said this earlier to avoid damage:
The soft sciences do statistics/data analysis -> dangerous territory!

The Physicist

​

 

[TheGeologist]

​

I kind of hate how people forget about Geology.

The field of geological sciences requires a strong understanding of biology, chemistry and physics. Everyone forgets about us

 

[TheGeologist]

Well, this is interesting. So far, the methodology is working rather well. On day 101, my Dr was 31,963. By day 110 my predicted Dr is 32,048. I'm currently on day 110, and my Dr sits at 34,017. Looking at the values, I had been rising faster than the algorithm had said but in the last two or three days I have hit a plateau, but that isn't unusual for me.

I will periodically update this thread as I approach the day 203 value.

 

[Robben]

I'm happy for you, and long may it continue, but mine is not working out anywhere near the same

Last week I was on 40k, dropped to 38k the day you made this thread and then went up slightly to 39.3k in the next 2 days... but after that, I have dropped another 3000 to 36k (half of that was due to being disconnected "due to loss of data" according to the game )

 

[TheGeologist]

I'm happy for you, and long may it continue, but mine is not working out anywhere near the same

Last week I was on 40k, dropped to 38k the day you made this thread and then went up slightly to 39.3k in the next 2 days... but after that, I have dropped another 3000 to 36k (half of that was due to being disconnected "due to loss of data" according to the game )

Post your kudos chart please

 

[Robben]

it's the first time I've had so many days going downwards since I was DR C!

 

[nuu1212]

​

Nice one, but please remember the following analogy:

Physics <--> Mathematics
is the same as
Sex <--> Masturbation

 

[TheGeologist]

it's the first time I've had so many days going downwards since I was DR C!

View attachment 727662

Damnnnnnnn, that is rather variable. What has caused all the falls, bad luck or just getting your butt kicked?

 

[Famine]

Nice one, but please remember the following analogy:

Physics <--> Mathematics
is the same as
Sex <--> Masturbation

Sex is just applied masturbation.

 

[Alpha Cipher]

Nice one, but please remember the following analogy:

Physics <--> Mathematics
is the same as
Sex <--> Masturbation

Wait how is masturbation purer than sex?

 

[nuu1212]

Sex is just applied masturbation.

Well, seems like you know a lot about this....

Seriously now, analyse this W-formation in my graph!

Hint: the first dip is the day Monza was released

 

[Robben]

Damnnnnnnn, that is rather variable. What has caused all the falls, bad luck or just getting your butt kicked?

I don't know... I just don't seem to be able to hit the same Q times I was a couple of weeks ago. Also, a couple of unfortunate incidents: Maggiore Centre the other day my wife walked in front of me as I was going round the second last turn in the RX7, so I span and hit the wall, VERY nearly quit but decided to suck it up and finish the race. Then the disconnection....

But yeah, mostly not qualifying high enough.. perhaps due to being grouped with high A and low S drivers? You just don't stand a chance of getting a decent result when you start so far down the grid.

 

[nuu1212]

Where does this table come from???

 

[Robben]

Where does this table come from???

www.jasonguernsey.net/gts thanks to @jasguer

It will only record your results once you register though...

 

[Famine]

Well, seems like you know a lot about this....

In theory, at least...

 

[TheGeologist]

I don't know... I just don't seem to be able to hit the same Q times I was a couple of weeks ago. Also, a couple of unfortunate incidents: Maggiore Centre the other day my wife walked in front of me as I was going round the second last turn in the RX7, so I span and hit the wall, VERY nearly quit but decided to suck it up and finish the race. Then the disconnection....

But yeah, mostly not qualifying high enough.. perhaps due to being grouped with high A and low S drivers? You just don't stand a chance of getting a decent result when you start so far down the grid.

View attachment 727669

Have you tried stepping away from the game for a bit? Sometimes we get in bad habits we don't realize and they are hard to break.

It definitely shouldn't last. You're too skilled of a racer, it doesn't follow your trend at all. I must admit, your data is pretty weird. You stayed Dr D and C for a while, shot up to B, avalanched from B, and then skyrocketed back to B and then A. No wonder the algorithm didn't work for you!

It works for me (thus far) because while my Dr is incredibly jagged, there is always a clear trend of rising. Only once does it shoot up (from B to A).

 

[Robben]

Have you tried stepping away from the game for a bit? Sometimes we get in bad habits we don't realize and they are hard to break.

I don't know... I don't think there are any particular bad habits I have acquired... I'm just not progressing as I was. I think it's partially tough matchmaking, perhaps everyone else is getting better quicker, making me less good in the general pool and therefore starting further back (and so finishing further back)

I must admit, your data is pretty weird.

I will address this:

You stayed Dr D and C for a while

This was before I joined GT Planet. I was not really focusing on qualifying, checking top 10 replays or even approaching the game with any more idea than to just try and drive as fast as possible all the time, which I now realise is not how to complete laps fast.

shot up to B

This was after I joined here, read a lot of threads, watched some videos and really started "trying". I worked hard on qualifying laps, learning racing lines etc (and ironically turned off the 'racing line' in game) and only entered races when I was comfortable with the car and track.

avalanched from B

DR reset to 7000 after an SR drop

and then skyrocketed back to B and then A.

Continued the natural progression which was happening up to day 93. If you ignore days 93-98 it's seamless...

 

[nuu1212]

OK, I will join the "Help Robben" thread.
First up, congrats on your development. Really looks like you had absolutely no clue at the beginning.
I mean, 30 days in and still at 0 - that surely looked like a lost cause.

Now for the present.
From a stock/Geologist analytics point of view, it looks like you ran quite a bit above trend and are now back, testing the trend-line.
At points like this a stock might turn around or just crash through...
The slight downswing could be due to the fact that they leveled the BoP settings, so the advantage of knowing the best car went down.
Or that you have to drive even more careful due to the updated Penalty system.
But probably you are just too lazy

If you want to stay competitive at A (and even at high B), especially with SR=S,
you really have to be disciplined and practice A LOT before even entering a race.
I personally find that I have to do at least ~50 Laps to really find the line and brake/acceleration points.
Every time I enter before that, I just burn DR (and SR) and have to gain them back later.
Maybe I am a slow learner, but I do not know the tracks well (e.g. from previous versions), so I really have to put in the work.
Some days I get to a point (at 100 Laps maybe) where I feel I drive 'like a clockwork'. This is where I really gain DR.
The really good guys, I suppose, are always in this zone.

 

[Robben]

OK, I will join the "Help Robben" thread.
First up, congrats on your development. Really looks like you had absolutely no clue at the beginning.
I mean, 30 days in and still at 0 - that surely looked like a lost cause.

I know, it's embarrassing looking back now. It's mostly caused by the fact that my SR was at about 10 on average in that period. I was not scared to play bumper cars in the early days and even found it quite amusing...

Now for the present.
From a stock/Geologist analytics point of view, it looks like you ran quite a bit above trend and are now back, testing the trend-line.
At points like this a stock might turn around or just crash through...
The slight downswing could be due to the fact that they leveled the BoP settings, so the advantage of knowing the best car went down.
Or that you have to drive even more careful due to the updated Penalty system.
But probably you are just too lazy

I didn't use the best cars before. Didn't like the M4 or M6 and have not competed in the Porsche for a couple of months. I usually use the Lexus in Group 3 and Citroen or Genesis in Group 4. Again, not due to penalty system either... I've been a very careful and considerate driver ( since about day 110, when I made my push for DR A.

If you want to stay competitive at A (and even at high B), especially with SR=S,
you really have to be disciplined and practice A LOT before even entering a race.
I personally find that I have to do at least ~50 Laps to really find the line and brake/acceleration points.
Every time I enter before that, I just burn DR (and SR) and have to gain them back later.
Maybe I am a slow learner, but I do not know the tracks well (e.g. from previous versions), so I really have to put in the work.
Some days I get to a point (at 100 Laps maybe) where I feel I drive 'like a clockwork'. This is where I really gain DR.
The really good guys, I suppose, are always in this zone.

I do do this... my usual plan is: pick 1 race of the 3 dailies to compete in.. then usually do about 30-40 minutes qualifying, watch a video of the top 10, then do another 30-40 minutes before considering entering a race. Most evenings I do 1 or maybe 2 races if it clicks quick enough.

Perhaps, it could be that my usual routine was interrupted over the Easter weekend as I had some time off and tried to squeeze a race in here and there around doing family stuff...

Thanks for your comment

 

[nuu1212]

Most evenings I do 1 or maybe 2 races if it clicks quick enough.

Interesting. I find that (despite the qualifying efforts) I almost never succeed in the first race. The second maybe. From third on I might get into the zone.