10 Reasons Why We Will See GT5's Sequel Next Summer

#10 - Tokyo Game Show is the perfect Arena to Suprise Everyone

PD has kept very tight lipped about future projects. TGS would be the perfect place to shock the world and announce GT6 for Spring/Summer 2013. The worst thing they could do is announce GT Vita and ignore GT6. More on that next.

#9 - Releasing GT Vita first is Illogical

If Sony forces PD to focus on PS Vita, what will surely be an arcade style racer masquerading as a simulation for a hand held, then they can say goodbye to their hardcore simulation fanbase.

#8 - GT5 isn't good Enough to Last 3+ Yeasrs

Releasing crumbs of DLC at random intervals along with random seasonal events is not enough to keep GT5 fresh. It has massive holes like no prerace sessions offline, slow AI, no drag racing support, clumsy UI, and other problems like B-Spec. PD can polish and apply coats of paint to a broken machine all it wants, but in the end its still broken.

#7 - PS4 doesn't need GT6 to sell consoles

At least it won't initially. The hype of a new Playstation and the almost guarantee of a much lower launch price then PS3 should keep the PS4 selling strong without any great AAA titles for a good while. PS4 wont need GT6 in it's first year, which means GT6 may get pushed back as far as 2015 if Sony makes the bad decision to make it a PS4 title.

#6 - Releasing GT6 on PS3 After PS4's launch Makes Little Sense

I can't see Sony being happy with GT6 launching as a PS3 game anytime after the PS4 is launched. This will only make alot of people delay in buying the PS4. When was the last time a major AAA Playstation exclusive title was released on a last gen console after a next gen console had already been released? It makes no sense to do that and steal momentum from the next gen console.

#5 - PD needs to buy time to optimize GT for PS4

Theres a good reason why there are so few AAA launch titles for new consoles. Top developers need time with the new systems to optomize code for the new console. If PD were to release GT6 on the PS4 in the first year of it's life we'd likely get "Gran Turismo 6 HD" or something to the effect. It would be GT5 but maybe with a few more cars on track and in true 1080p. And that would be it. Not much different from what can be offered on the PS3. GT6 on the PS3 next summer buys PD 2-3 years to optomize GT on PS4 and it keeps the fans off their back.

#4 - Reusing Resources for GT6 PS3 Makes Sense Money-wise

If PD waited to release Gran Turismo 6 on the PS4 it would have to be on a new graphics and physics engine. 80 million USD was spent developing GT5. Why not reuse most of the resources that are in GT5 and create a new PS3 game instead of spending another 80 million on R&D of a next generation graphics and phyiscs engine?

Square Enix is starting to do this with thier Final Fantasy franchise. Like PD they released a dud of a game (when compared to previous iterations), but quickly released an apology game reusing alot of the resources from the original. It saved them money and pleased the fans. PD should follow suit.

#3 - PC Sims Are Picking Off Former GT fans One at a Time

The PC sim market is growing. Before it was just a niche genre, now it's gaining steams and more and more developers are throwing their hat in the arena. With the arrival of iRacing, Sim Raceway and Rfactor 2 around the corner, as well as project CARS and others PD must respond, and fast. The bleeding needs to stop. Most sim buffs were disappointed with GT5 and have moved on. If PD waits too long to release a sequal to the disappointing GT5 then they risk losing alot of their core fanbase.

GT doesnt need to be a realistic as these PC sims, thats not what made it appealing to them. It was the fact it was funner then PC sims. GT5 stripped most of the fun from the GT series, GT6 can add it back.

#2 - Forza 4 is already here. Forza Horizon and Forza 5 are Both Coming

If Forza continues its trend of releasing a title very 2 years we will see Forza 5 next year. PD cannot let 2-3 Forza titles come and go before they release a new Gran Turismo. They will lose even more support to their direct competitior. It doesn't help that all these Forza games have been highly rated while GT5 was poorly rated. You will find very few reviewers who recommend GT5 over Forza. That needs to change, fast.

#1 - GT5 Is Easy To Improve

The major complaints about GT5 really aren't rooted in it's physics or even the problems with the graphics. GT fans want much more A-Spec events, pre race sessions like practice and qualifying, faster more aggressive AI, longer A-spec races, better career progression without grinding, drag racing, streamlined UI, pp restrictions for A-spec races, better representations of NASCAR, Super GT, and WRC, license tests that matter, an event creator, and improved B-spec. I dont see how such improvements are not possible in 2 1/2 years. Little quirks like the pit crew not fixing visible damage can be fixed as well.

Keeping the standard cars but adding around 150 new premium models that are either upgraded popular standard cars like the Veyron, XJ220, or Countach, or new cars alltogether like Noble or SSC will keep the game fresh. Add weather and time change to more tracks. Throw in a new licensed racing series like V8 Supercars, Indycar, or Grand-Am. There is much PD can do for GT6 and not make it feel like GT5.5. A livery editor would certainly send GT6 over the top.

The Future of the GT series will be decided at TGS, for good or for bad

Still no news or evidence.

Pretty nice list I beg to differ on one thing and that's #1.

Graphics or GT5 are good, but far from great. I just noticed that the rearview mirrors don't display buildings properly and also the draw distance in them are poor very poor.

Another thing is the 2D trees is something that needs to be addressed GT4 may have been on PS2, but their trees and even the lighting was more believable on certain tracks.

There are some other problems, but I've forgotten now.

Zuku

Pretty nice list I beg to differ on one thing and that's #1.

Graphics or GT5 are good, but far from great. I just noticed that the rearview mirrors don't display buildings properly and also the draw distance in them are poor very poor.

Another thing is the 2D trees is something that needs to be addressed GT4 may have been on PS2, but their trees and even the lighting was more believable on certain tracks.

There are some other problems, but I've forgotten now.

Click to expand...

Those "problems" you mentioned are not really problems, they are done intentionally for performance reasons, the PS3 is quite old and developers need to make sacrifices. Can you imagine if they did the Nurburgring with full 3D trees? There is no chance the PS3 would run that, and even if it did they would have to sacrifice other aspects, like car detail, lightning or physics. Besides, I can't think of any other console sim with all 3D trees.

Which is exactly why I hope GT6 ends up on PS4, I don't mind waiting if the product is good in the end.

Here's my reaction

Agree with some, not so much with others

#10 agreed TGS would be a good podium for that.

#9 I personally think that Sony would be more interested in at least one GT game for every console to boost console sales. So a GT vita would make perfect sense, untill now the vita is not a very good selling product. It's more Sony's call than PD's actually.

#8 True, and if I'm correct Kaz allready stated somewhere that the time between GT5 and GT6 would not be as long as between GT4 and GT5

#7 not sure about that, personally not planning on buying a PS4 anyway (yet)

#6 true, maybe to keep the console alive for a few more years.

#5 I agree with that, releasing GT6 would indeed buy them time. to start converting to next gen.

#4 They'll have to remake the engine for next gen anyway why not start now?

#3 There are lots of people (including me) who don't play any games on PC so PC sims would never compete with GT in that case

#2 Like the above Forza is on another console so for me not an issue or competition I don't need more than one console.

#1 If it would be GT5 with more tracks and more premium cars, it'll be good enough for me


But like McClarenDesign said, no evidence yet

Some very good points here, logical and not ridiculous.

The one main flaw being the studio whose game you are analysing is PD, who seem to choose their development paths on the flip of a coin.

Otherwise, this would work for most other game developers I reckon.

I can say only 1 thing, think about GT1=GT2, or GT3=GT4

Every time the first GT for current platform was great, but the sequel were even better, so why wouldnt that happen once again ?
They have fixed alot of problems that was in GT5 when it was launched, every step is one step forward for the GT6.

And to be honest, I really doubt the next gen consoles can be that much powerful compared to these days consoles, main thing they can focus on is the limited memory PS3 has.

Well i must add by looking at the news guys...Hideo Kojima one of the games guru of our times creator of Fox Engine for MGS series, yesterday news said that he is going to show the new FOX ENGINE (Project OGRE, that could be possible MGS5) on August 30th.

So be ready because he said that it is going to be one of the best engines in the market and if he said that, it could be possible to see NEXT GEN graphics at the end of August.

He also mentioned that this time he developed the engine for every platform including PC! so, prepare to see news coming from Sony about PS4.

When a new engine comes out is just because new hardware is in the works and it is capable of handle all that.

Stop looking at GT5 as a reference because it is not the unique game that we have on our beloved PS3 guys.

A bunch of games are coming for the PS3 next year and i am talking about great exclusives and that also means that "the end" of the PS3 is near and they are releasing all that to sell more and the new PS3 Slim as they did with the latest PS2 Slim. (a year later PS3 appeared)

GT6 could appear in the PS3 again but if they are holding up the announce this time is just because something more has to be announced before.

Just logic not hype.

I'd put money on not seeing 6 next summer. No news, no official announcements, no trailer... no reason to assume that 6 is happening any time soon. GTA5 is closer than GT6.

Your reasons seem really reasonable. I expect GT6 for PS3, but not on the next summer.

But GT6 on PS3, it's the logical next step for PD IMHO, plus I believe in the 2 main games per console strategy from PD. One smaller, to estabilish the base, then a bigger one after.

They are holding back on DLC, probably saving fresh stuff for GT6.

System: Smaller game, Bigger game
PS1: GT1, GT2
PS2: GT3, GT4
PS3: GT5, GT6

diegorborges

Your reasons seem really reasonable. I expect GT6 for PS3, but not on the next summer.

But GT6 on PS3, it's the logical next step for PD IMHO, plus I believe in the 2 main games per console strategy from PD. One smaller, to estabilish the base, then a bigger one after.

They are holding back on DLC, probably saving fresh stuff for GT6.

System: Smaller game, Bigger game
PS1: GT1, GT2
PS2: GT3, GT4
PS3: GT5, GT6

Click to expand...

This.

#10. You want to announce it where it will get the most attention. Thats not TGS

#9. Vita unfortunately is very much on Sony's mind.

#8. Maybe not but that can be rectified by patching (wishfull thinking).

#7. If it comes with a hefty pricetag, it NEEDS a big hitter (that hurt PS3's early years)

#6. Thats why it would make sense to be a PS4 title.

#5. Yep, thats why they better be working on it already.

#4. Engine and premiums are confirmed "future proof"

#3. Nah, its just a more crowded market. It still holds the lions share.

#2. What if Forza 5 is a next gen title. That certainly wont help Sony if the want to compete early and there is no next gen GT.

#1. See #8

diegorborges

Your reasons seem really reasonable. I expect GT6 for PS3, but not on the next summer.

But GT6 on PS3, it's the logical next step for PD IMHO, plus I believe in the 2 main games per console strategy from PD. One smaller, to estabilish the base, then a bigger one after.

They are holding back on DLC, probably saving fresh stuff for GT6.

System: Smaller game, Bigger game
PS1: GT1, GT2
PS2: GT3, GT4
PS3: GT5, GT6

Click to expand...

This.

I absolutely agree with some of your points Earth - not with all of them, but nevermind that now - and I am also in the camp that thinks how next installment of GT franchise will happen on the PS3 console. Of course, it can also happen how GT5 will become Spec III and Spec IV at some point and how "GT6" will indeed become a PS4 game but I somehow do not find it plausible because of the pure logic.

Here are my points, no particular order and they also take some of logic of your points in re-interpreted way and back them up with some useful links which contains explanations for my points/claims.

#Return of Investment
As you noted, GT5 was a very expensive software to produce (however, the budget was not 80, but 60 million and was absolutely re-invested from sales of Prologue, which was funded by sales of GT4, and backwards, etc.). I deliberately do not use a word "game" since I find GT5's engine a self-sustained software environment that can evolve and be partially or completely expanded in form of clusters. Such evolving "architecture" would be crazy to waste on just one release on PS3 platform. Reasons are multiple:

1. At this point there are more than 65 million PS3 consoles on the market. At the moment of GT5 launch (end of 2010) there was significantly less, around 40 million. That is increase of more than 50% in the userbase in only 2 years

2. Userbase will absolutely rise even more as the introduction of the new PS3 "Super Slim" console is approaching with rumored extremely low price (sub-200$) for the entry model during this year, probably for the holiday-season. What we know at this point is how "next-gen" consoles will not appear before 2013, with Sony most probably going into 2014. With new more affordable PS3 console on market in next 48 months it really could be very important for PD/Sony to take advantage of that number and market-saturation with their most renown franchise - and not lean onto current expanded/budget-release of 2010 game.

3. Despite heavy criticism and not-so-flattering mainstream reviews GT5 managed to sell in stunning 7.5 million copies till November 2011, which is result months prior to release of GT5 Spec II/GT5 XL on NTSC markets (JP/USA) and before GT5 has released as Greatest Hits title in PAL (GT5 and GT5rologue are also best selling PS3 games overall, with better results than COD/GTA or any other series on PS3). We can pretty much presume how 7.5 million is now surpassed. Not releasing another PS3 Gran Turismo title with +50% stronger userbase for actual console and such strong results of previous PS3 titles on PS3 would be absolutely wasted opportunity for both Sony and PD.

4. No DLC release and revenue form DLC (despite great results of the initial DLC pack that peaked in over 1 million downloads) can replace sheer amount of revenue from full disc-release. If Polyphony Digital has used experience from past 2 years and expanded the initial game into desired way, managed to improve current state of GT software into more feature-wise one, or even managed to find a way to introduce majority of wishes of the community, I think we are safe to presume how nobody with even slightest amount of sanity would not compromise the potential of another GT series release on PS3.

Simple example: if they release 5 more DLC pack for GT5 with cars (for 6$ per pack) and 2 packs with tracks (for 5$ per pack) and manage to sell it to 1 million users (not going to happen since we can presume how 1st DLC was most attractive, but let's say..), they've earned 30 million $ in revenue. Now transfer that same content into new full-release that sells for average of 50$ and manage to reach the same sales as GT5 (pretty much given with more than 50% increase in userbase for console, etc.). You've earned 350 million in revenue. Almost 1200% more. Mathematics says it all.

# Potential PS3 GT6 integration with theoretical GT for Vita
We do not know is the PD working on GT game for Vita. However.

It would be crazy to presume how Sony is not pushing their most important franchise to expand onto the new console. Aside with theoretical discussions about how could GT game for Vita work design-wise, it would be total madness not to make it cross-playable with new PS3 game (at least functionality-wise, I do not see it as potential cross-platform play in "driving" GT Life segment) - in order to take advantage of potential userbase that would probably *jump* on both boats: purchasing new PS3 game and purchasing Vita together with GT for Vita game.

If they can make GT Vita game having good integration of main features with PS3 version of the game and also make it use special Vita features in order to make it interesting, I see a clear winner. And since programming for Vita is much less complex than for PS3, creation of GT for Vita is challenge purely from the game-design side, not technical.

I really think how we will witness a very interesting development in this area in the near future.

...and last but not least, since this point is more emotional than rational:

# The year 2012 is very important year in GT series history
At November 23rd 2012 Gran Turismo series will celebrate its 15th birthday. It is very important milestone for the series and I can presume PD will certainly took that into account for possible new developments.

We shall know soon. If not on Gamescom (less likely) or TGS 2012 (more likely), then on E3 2013 (most likely).

3 years has been my best estimation- which leaves us with a 2013 November release.

Kazunori has stated that "GT5 is a title that was pretty much remade from scratch, but because we did that, the next version is actually going to be faster -- the time period it's going to be released."

3 years is obviously faster than 5. 3 years seems like enough to make a strong title. Hell, maybe PD will throw us a curveball and release it 2.5 years after GT5- summer release as Earth argues.

My biggest fear is a GT6 game that is too similar to GT5, with uninspired AI, limited customization, silly A-Spec races, few new manufacturers added, etc.

@ CorvetteConquer

I think PD knows if they do check out this forum they can't make another GT5 that would be a board/forum wide disaster in the making.

In fact I'd go so far as to lump GT5 with FFXIII if PD pulls a FFXIII-2 they know their in trouble.

I'm not the biggest fan of GT because I never played 1 or 2, but even I'd jump ship to a different franchise altogether maybe not Forza(not a big Xbox fan) though.

edit, hit reply on accident...wasn't finished typing long post...

PD said they will only provide GT6 when it can offer something GT5 can never offer through updates or DLC. I think by this they mean it will be on next gen, GT5 is already maximising PS3 performance.
I think no news of GT6 this year will be a good sign, as that will mean it's almost certain a PS4 title. With both announced next year.

New Engine not much a problem for PS4, over 200 premium models already done for PS4, maybe another 200 already done we don't know about.
Why write a new engine optimised for PS3 when you can use that time for next gen engine?

I agree with everything, but what about online play changes?

I hate to hear people say that PD maxed out the PS3 when I've played games like Uncharted 2 and God of War 3 now those games maxed out the PS3 when I was playing them at least it felt like it.

BlisteredHand

PD said they will only provide GT6 when it can offer something GT5 can never offer through updates or DLC. I think by this they mean it will be on next gen, GT5 is already maximising PS3 performance.
I think no news of GT6 this year will be a good sign, as that will mean it's almost certain a PS4 title. With both announced next year.

New Engine not much a problem for PS4, over 200 premium models already done for PS4, maybe another 200 already done we don't know about.
Why write a new engine optimised for PS3 when you can use that time for next gen engine?

Click to expand...

Good sign?, ok, let's wait another 10 years for GT6, life is good with GT5, and i don't see how GT5 maximises the PS3, is it doing it with it's 800 PS2 ported cars? Is it doing it with it's low res shadows and weather effects? PS2 ported tracks?

GT6 will be released on the PS4, whenever that comes out.

Kaz will put way too much stuff in there to get running on a PS3.

Mikecustom we pretty much agree to anyone saying GT5 maxed out Ps3 you're only lying to yourself.

Wrap your heads around this and let me know what you think: I think GT6 is done. I think GT5 is a scaled back GT6 because the current hardware is too weak. Look at photo mode. The code for ultra-high resolution models is already in the game. Also, look at the shadows. I refuse to believe that PD would make a game that looks so stunning, then put that type of shadow rendering into it. I seem to remember reading posts here that speculated that the PS3 was simply not powerful enough to handle the shadows. Look at the pixelation caused by dirt and smoke. Again, too much polish on car models for that type of effect. Imagine a game with fluid gameplay with graphics like Photo Mode, Shadows that don’t look like they’ve been in the cheese grater, and better dirt/particle effects. I think that the developer’s hardware is capable of creating all of these effects, and the PS3 might not be able to. GT5 was developed on a computer, and we all know that computers far surpass console processing and graphics processing capabilities, even on the very day the console is newly released. I suspect that PD made a stunning game, chopped it back for the PS3, and have a next-gen worthy version sitting in wait. Imagine the profits PD stands to gain if they already have a PS4 ready game ready or almost ready to release…

OR:

The PS3 is capable of handling better shadows, no ridiculous dirt pixilation, and better resolutions. Either way, better resolutions are coded into GT5; again, we can see that from Photo Mode. If GT6 will release on PS3, I hardly expect better premium car models than what we see now. I do, however, expect something to be done about the ridiculous shadows, and upgrading the shadows simply can’t be all that difficult.

Relatedly, what about those standard cockpits? Each standard car cockpit is different, and seems to be a perfect outline for it’s real world counterpart. If PD was willing spend the time to model a perfect outline, why not fill it with an image?

I think I’ll create a new thread about this topic. I’d love to be flamed hear what others think.

I am sure people thought GT3 maxed out the PS2 in terms of graphics. Then GT4 came along and became one of the most beautiful games on the system. Ever. Even with 4 times the amount of cars and a huge GT mode.

PS4 hype is hard to ignore, but it also clouds judgments.....at least those of hungry fans.

I'd say it would be harder to release GT6 so quickly on the ps4, because they build a brand new engine for GT5, and I'm sure its based around the cell processor. The next playstation is rumored to not make use of the cell processor. This would mean their game engine might be obsolete or would require lots more changes and optimization for the new system.

I'd like to see GT6 on ps3, before ps4 is out in the market. But knowing sony, they will push GT6 to ps4.

Zuku

I hate to hear people say that PD maxed out the PS3 when I've played games like Uncharted 2 and God of War 3 now those games maxed out the PS3 when I was playing them at least it felt like it.

Click to expand...

You serious? they are not even in 1080p. Pixelated cheapness and variable fps.

mikecustom

Good sign?, ok, let's wait another 10 years for GT6, life is good with GT5, and i don't see how GT5 maximises the PS3, is it doing it with it's 800 PS2 ported cars? Is it doing it with it's low res shadows and weather effects? PS2 ported tracks?

Click to expand...

?
Good sign because you get a new better GT game soon, what on earth on about 10 years?, it could be next year, if not 2014 at the latest.
GT5 can last until then with DLC tracks and cars.
You care also confusing maximising PS3 compared to amount of content in the game. GT5 will not run any better in any way with more premium cars.
It's maximised with low res shadow and weather. More time won't make it any better. As for PS2 ported tracks, again that is not connected to maximising the PS3 performance, but refers to content.
We some premium cars and tracks, that maximises performance, it will not get any better than that on the PS3.
Theoretically they could spend 3-4 years making a new engine from scratch to completely retry a vision for GT on the PS3, but it would only be hope they might even end up with something that is worse than GT5..
They have been working on next gen PS4 GT6 since 2010, before that if you include the high details models premium cars.
There is no logic to any other method.
Putting aside streaming GT6 to the PS3, but that's another kettle of fish.

Gejabo

#4 They'll have to remake the engine for next gen anyway why not start now?

Click to expand...

Why?

I think the engine and the premiums were created for the future.

ch3ng

Why?

I think the engine and the premiums were created for the future.

Click to expand...

This.

Premium cars should be safe for the future.

I believe that any car made from the PS3 and ahead will be "complete" for future GT titles on any future console.