1. At this point there are more than
65 million PS3 consoles on the market. At the moment of GT5 launch (end of 2010) there was significantly less, around
40 million. That is increase of more than 50% in the userbase in only 2 years
2. Userbase will absolutely rise even more as the introduction of the new PS3 "Super Slim" console is approaching with rumored extremely low price (sub-200$) for the entry model during this year, probably for the holiday-season. What we know at this point is how "next-gen" consoles will not appear before 2013,
with Sony most probably going into 2014. With new more affordable PS3 console on market in next 48 months it really could be very important for PD/Sony to take advantage of that number and market-saturation with their most renown franchise - and not lean onto current expanded/budget-release of 2010 game.
3. Despite heavy criticism and
not-so-flattering mainstream reviews GT5 managed to sell in stunning
7.5 million copies till November 2011, which is result months prior to release of GT5 Spec II/GT5 XL on NTSC markets (JP/USA) and before GT5 has released as Greatest Hits title in PAL (
GT5 and GT5rologue are also best selling PS3 games overall, with better results than COD/GTA or any other series on PS3). We can pretty much presume how 7.5 million is now surpassed. Not releasing another PS3 Gran Turismo title with +50% stronger userbase for actual console and such strong results of previous PS3 titles on PS3 would be absolutely wasted opportunity for both Sony and PD.
4. No DLC release and revenue form DLC (despite great results of the initial DLC pack that peaked in
over 1 million downloads) can replace sheer amount of revenue from full disc-release. If Polyphony Digital has used experience from past 2 years and
expanded the initial game into desired way, managed to improve current state of GT software
into more feature-wise one, or even managed to find a way to introduce
majority of wishes of the community, I think we are safe to presume how nobody with even slightest amount of sanity would not compromise the potential of another GT series release on PS3.
Simple example: if they release 5 more DLC pack for GT5 with cars (for 6$ per pack) and 2 packs with tracks (for 5$ per pack) and manage to sell it to 1 million users (not going to happen since we can presume how 1st DLC was most attractive, but let's say..), they've earned 30 million $ in revenue. Now transfer that same content into new full-release that sells for average of 50$ and manage to reach the same sales as GT5 (pretty much given with more than 50% increase in userbase for console, etc.). You've earned 350 million in revenue. Almost 1200% more. Mathematics says it all.