This is dead on. Consistent mid-pack pace through all 6 races can win the night in most divisions.
Here's a way of looking at maximizing your points for a combo that maybe some people haven't considered: Just gain a few spots in the reverse-grid race. Mathematically, that's really all you need to do. I know it sounds overly simple, so let me explain. Since every position at the end of the race is worth one point more than the one below it, if no one passed anyone in the reverse-grid race, everyone would end up with the same number of points, no matter what order everyone finished in the first race. Getting the most points for the combo just means you passed the most people in the second race.
"Aha!" you might be thinking, "I'll focus all my effort on the second race!" Nope. Won't work. For my strategy to work, you have to have people in front of you for the second race that you actually can pass. That means you have to have beaten them in the first race so that they start in front of you for the second one. If you get last place in the first race, there isn't anywhere to go but down in the second race. So I think of the first race as establishing my position for the second one. What's important is that I qualify and race well enough to keep some people behind me that I can hope to pass in the second race.
When the combo is tough, I know that there's a good chance that, especially in the reverse-grid race, someone -- perhaps several someones -- will make a mistake that allows me to pass them with almost no effort at all. I just need to keep myself in a position to take advantage.
That's just one of many different ways to look at the underlying math problem, but it's the one I choose to use since it helps me focus on consistency. I like to win races, too, but that's not always in the cards. I finished 3rd in D2 last night without any wins. That means that both 1st and 3rd in our division didn't even win a single race between us.