Fine margins for Kimi (Good to see he is back at a decent level), needed to match his first Q3 run last sector and he would have been there but credit to Sebastian for managing to hook it up when it mattered two races in a row. I think time difference gained and lost is more complex than just looking at sectors as even though Kimi went purple in first two sectors of lap, he probably used more energy to make it but lost out marginally under braking over the lap and car placement (That sort of evened itself out though) which is probably where the difference was, maybe also some setup difference too. Them prancing horses are super quick on the straights but last two races they have been able to match others under braking and corners more, glimpses in Melbourne.
Saving grace for Merc is for the two steps harder tyre, they were similarly quick so might bode well for them in the race but they also have got Red Bulls to deal with too who start on the softer tyres... Merc seem to have lost some strengths of last year but gained in others so maybe they will be stronger in Monaco and Singapore and weaker in Silverstone relative to Ferrari of last year at the moment. They do seem quite strong in the races though, maybe concentrating on the harder tyres in winter testing helped race pace but hurt a bit qualifying pace. They still seem to have the most efficient PU in the race so maybe if no safety car, it might be problematic for their competition so could open up some overtaking opportunities provided they have the pace to keep the pressure on. I wonder if Ferrari found some clever way of pushing peak power. Reliability as always will be a big factor in the championships this year.
Most positive thing in qualifying I saw was Force India back up to speed and they seem to have quite a bit in the pipeline, credit to Sergio and Nico for out qualifying their teammates. Most worrying thing is performance of McLaren, they only seem genuinely quicker than Sauber. Good job for them Williams don't have better drivers, otherwise it might have been a struggle to get out of Q1 in last two races. Unlike Force India who noticed correlating issues, McLaren are saying their 'ambitious' design is matching up to their targets but now they don't think their target was all that high. They really need their upgrade package they are working on to deliver big as it is not like others around them will be standing still.