America - The Official Thread

[Scaff]

Same can be said of the Hunter Biden issue.

Sorry, but what?

The Hunter Biden (non)issue was reported and investigated quite widely and reported in the media. It was, and largely remains, a non-story (and it's only a story still because of the CT's behind it - not because of any actual merit in the allegation).

Associated Press (among others) have repeatedly written about it
https://www.snopes.com/ap/2020/10/29/ap-explains-trump-pushes-questions-about-joe-bidens-son/
https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/10/15/hunter-biden-laptop-giuliani/

 

[TexRex]

https://www.snopes.com/ap/2020/10/29/ap-explains-trump-pushes-questions-about-joe-bidens-son/
https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/10/15/hunter-biden-laptop-giuliani/

You're supposed to link to YouTube videos.

 

[Danoff]

Due to the limited size of the pie, and a ballooning table of hungry eaters, today not everyone is going to get

Not the damned pie fallacy again. The pie is a lie.

 

[TexRex]

Did I just walk into a Weight Watchers meeting?

 

[Scaff]

Saw this today, thought it might be appreciated.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

Not the damned pie fallacy again. The pie is a lie.

Maybe we need an adjustment: the pie can be made bigger.

 

[Dotini]

Maybe we need an adjustment: the pie can be made bigger.

The "pie" is often defined as GDP. It would be nice if GDP increased, or workers received a bigger share. I do not think either is going anywhere fast..

https://news.mit.edu/2020/why-workers-smaller-share-GDP-0311

 

[Danoff]

The "pie" is often defined as GDP. It would be nice if GDP increased, or workers received a bigger share. I do not think either is going anywhere fast..

https://news.mit.edu/2020/why-workers-smaller-share-GDP-0311

Can be GDP, wealth, jobs... probably other stuff...

You can make your own job, your own wealth, out of nothing, and it will grow GDP relative to whatever GDP was going to do without you (ie: even when GDP shrinks). You can generate a piece of pie out of thin air and eat it. In that way, it is nothing like a pie. The whole point of the pie metaphor is to convey a sense that economics is zero sum, and it is nothing of the sort.

It conveys all the wrong messages. When you go to work, you generate your own paycheck.

 

[longshot1314]

Or you can be the Federal Reserve and make money out of nothing

 

[jjaisli]

If anyone's read The Expanse books they actually describe future earth as being like that where essentially everyone is living off a basic income and dealing with life lacking meaning and opportunity while a handful are able to get the better opportunities.

True, but it's also important to point out that in the Expanse Universe, the primary reason for Earth's decline, and the dismal existence most people eek out is due to pollution, over-extended natural resources and climate change. Sadly, it's not difficult to imagine this being our reality in another 250 years, if we continue along our current path.

Conspiracy Theories do play into the idea of people resorting to those extremes when they feel the system is unfair or rigged but I'd also argue it's arisen out of the fact that mainstream media has become more and more untrustworthy over the years and people have become more aware of that.

I disagree. I don't see the MSM as being inherently untrustworthy. More that people have been conditioned by 20+ years worth of shock jocks, propaganda, unvetted sources, Facebook Friends, conspiracy theorists, Twitter Bots, and more recently, a President who lies constantly and proclaimed the free press as the enemy of the people.

 

[Danoff]

Or you can be the Federal Reserve and make money out of nothing

I hope that was tongue in cheek, because it is completely different.

 

[longshot1314]

I hope that was tongue in cheek, because it is completely different.

Yeah that is mostly meant to be a joke, albeit a poor one

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

The great questions just keep on coming!
I don't have the answers but I could say a few meager words.

In terms of the macroscopic economic system of the USA, I don't feel it is correct to call it a traditional conspiracy. Possibly inchoately organized process would be a better term. But I certainly can see why people might feel they are not getting what they deserve or are owed.

Part of the problem is that of rising expectations from succeeding generations. 200 years ago about all you could expect was the opportunity to move west into the wilderness and support a family by farming, mining or hunting. That's a hard life.

Due to the limited size of the pie, and a ballooning table of hungry eaters, today not everyone is going to get a decent job, or the opportunity to raise a family, buy a home, cars and boats. Cheap phones, drugs and entertainments are the palliative.

I see no way to escape the reality of the predicament, except to move to Mars with Elon Musk. We could try a Great Reset which has a number or permutations, mostly ugly.

I think you are misunderstanding what made your musclecarhousewifefishingboatcabin lifestyle possible in the first place - an enormous population boom and an accommodating ruling class. We probably need more people, not less.

Right now the fishing muscle wife cabin is expensive/out of reach because asset values are extremely inflated.
Assets are inflated because borrowing costs are very low (ZIRP)
We have ZIRP because economic activity is stagnant and the Fed is doing all it can to defibrillate it
Economic activity is stagnant largely because we have a stagnant or even declining workforce population. We need more pie bakers.

 

[TexRex]

fishing muscle wife cabin

A cabin in which my wife can demonstrate her fishing muscle to me is something I didn't know I needed until fifteen seconds ago.

 

[Dotini]

In 1967, the average cost of a new house....$14,250
In 1967, the average cost of a new car.........$2750
In 1967, the average wage............................$7300

In 2017, the average cost of anew house.....$428k
In 2017, the average cost of a new car..........$36k
In 2017, the average wage..............................$52k

It will be seen that prices have increased proportionately higher than wages from 1967 to 2017.

In 1967, straight out of high school, my starting wage at the local factory was $5600/yr.
In order to continue college studies, I quit the factory and worked part time selling brushes door to door at triple my former average hourly rate.
Three years later, still in school, I had TWO Z28 Camaro's - one for the street and one to race.

 

[TexRex]

 

[Keef]

In 1967, the average cost of a new house....$14,250
In 1967, the average cost of a new car.........$2750
In 1967, the average wage............................$7300

In 2017, the average cost of anew house.....$428k
In 2017, the average cost of a new car..........$36k
In 2017, the average wage..............................$52k

It will be seen that prices have increased proportionately higher than wages from 1967 to 2017.

In 1967, straight out of high school, my starting wage at the local factory was $5600/yr.
In order to continue college studies, I quit the factory and worked part time selling brushes door to door at triple my former average hourly rate.
Three years later, still in school, I had TWO Z28 Camaro's - one for the street and one to race.

My dad bought his first house around 1969 at about 20 years old right after his machinist apprenticeship was over. And it wasn't a small one, it was one of those two story houses in the "inner city" suburbs that you can tell was pretty nice before the neighborhood went downhill. He also would buy or lease a new car every two years or so because he could. That lasted until 1988 when I came along and ruined everything, and the Midwest machining industry had already begun slipping.

Here's something I want to know. What was the average "billionaire" net worth in 1967? What was the average corporate market share? What was their average revenue and profit? What do income, wealth, and tax distribution charts look like from 1967 compared to today?

 

[Dotini]

Apparently life is not a linear advancement going straight to the stars. Nations rise and nations fall. Civilizations rise and civilizations fall.

 

[Danoff]

Comparing it to religion is an interesting perspective. You are right tough, because there is so many seperate, yet deeply held beliefs, it would take a lot of work to drag someone out.

The hardest part is that they’d have to want to get out. Which, with the elitist “I know how things REALLY ARE” attitude of not just my brother, but many conspiracy theorists, would require a massive backflip. Which people don’t like doing, partly due to pride and face, but also because they like thinking the way they do.


Nothing diagnosed, but it’s possible. There’s definitely been some mental health issues and our family has a history of it. He’s a real “bloke-y bloke” so I honestly can’t see him seeking help even if he really, really needed it. It’s a shame because it could do him a lot of good.

John Oliver prepared some videos to help you out:

https://thetruetruetruth.com/

These videos (pick the celebrity that might best reach the person you want to reach) give general tips on how to investigate a conspiracy theory and find your way out. Nothing specific to any one theory.

 

[Keef]

Apparently life is not a linear advancement going straight to the stars. Nations rise and nations fall. Civilizations rise and civilizations fall.

Why? Is it because they keep doing the same things over and over again? Why has the progression always been the same for thousands of years?

 

[Dotini]

Why? Is it because they keep doing the same things over and over again? Why has the progression always been the same for thousands of years?

In a word, cycles.

 

[Keef]

In a word, cycles.

That's not good enough. I know there are cycles. Why? That seems like a question society doesn't care to answer because if they looked into it they could figure out why and put a stop to it.

 

[Biggles]

Can be GDP, wealth, jobs... probably other stuff...

You can make your own job, your own wealth, out of nothing, and it will grow GDP relative to whatever GDP was going to do without you (ie: even when GDP shrinks). You can generate a piece of pie out of thin air and eat it. In that way, it is nothing like a pie. The whole point of the pie metaphor is to convey a sense that economics is zero sum, and it is nothing of the sort.

It conveys all the wrong messages. When you go to work, you generate your own paycheck.

The pie argument is another example of libertarian reductionist thinking. OK, the pie is expandable - there's no doubt about that, but who gets the benefit of the expansion, that's the question? If 0.1% of the population gets 90% of the benefit, 20% of the population gets the remaining 10% & 80% get nothing ... or a reduction in benefits, that's a problem. Obviously it's much, much more complicated than that, but it's definitely a lot more complicated than just an expandable pie.

Let's say that the last 30 years of capitalist expansion has brought tremendous benefits overall. It's lifted the standard of living of hundreds of millions of Chinese workers, created an expanding Chinese middle class, created a handful of Chinese billionaires, created wealth for American companies that benefit from trade with China, created extreme wealth for a handful of American billionaires & created cheap tech products that millions of Americans use very day.

At the same time, it's helped push tens of millions of American workers out of relatively high-paying manufacturing jobs without replacing those jobs with other, equivalently high paying jobs. Most of those workers don't have big stock portfolios, so they don't benefit from an increase in the stock market, they don't own homes in desirable areas, so they don't benefit from an increase in house prices. So ... said American workers (euphemistically referred to as "middle class") get pissed off & vote for a nationalist, authoritarian narcissist who promises to disrupt the whole system, supposedly to benefit American workers (& definitely in pursuit of his own self-gratification). That's the problem we're facing.

 

[Famine]

Great Reset

Damn.

GTPlanet is now paying out on anyone who had Dotini referencing the latest conspiracy theory at *checks* 1000-1100 UTC on November 18 on their card.

 

[Dotini]

That's not good enough. I know there are cycles. Why? That seems like a question society doesn't care to answer because if they looked into it they could figure out why and put a stop to it.

I'd love to spend hours discussing these questions. Sadly, it would be off topic. A new thread would be required, IMHO.

Edit:
Many of the greatest civilizations knew of cycles - and were even obsessed with them. Yet that could do nothing to prevent their demise.

 

[Danoff]

The pie argument is another example of libertarian reductionist thinking. OK, the pie is expandable - there's no doubt about that, but who gets the benefit of the expansion, that's the question? If 0.1% of the population gets 90% of the benefit, 20% of the population gets the remaining 10% & 80% get nothing ... or a reduction in benefits, that's a problem. Obviously it's much, much more complicated than that, but it's definitely a lot more complicated than just an expandable pie.

The person that created it. You create your own slice. It comes from you, you benefit from it. The pie metaphor, even an expandable one, doesn't fit at all.

So ... said American workers (euphemistically referred to as "middle class") get pissed off & vote for a nationalist, authoritarian narcissist who promises to disrupt the whole system, supposedly to benefit American workers (& definitely in pursuit of his own self-gratification). That's the problem we're facing.

I don't agree. You seem to be missing that there are motivations other than economic motivations. You're not going to fully understand the authoritarian movement (and I can't say I do either) unless you accept that it's not wholly (I'd say even primarily) motivated by money.

 

[Biggles]

I don't agree. You seem to be missing that there are motivations other than economic motivations. You're not going to fully understand the authoritarian movement (and I can't say I do either) unless you accept that it's not wholly (I'd say even primarily) motivated by money.

I don't disagree with that. There certainly are other motivations. Economic discontent is only one of the factors, but it seems like a pretty significant one.

 

[Danoff]

I don't disagree with that. There certainly are other motivations. Economic discontent is only one of the factors, but it seems like a pretty significant one.

To the extent the economics is driving this rise of authoritarianism, I think that it comes from a perceived drag from immigration and trade (these both tie into the non-monetary concerns of xenophobia and racism). Even though both of those things help economically, they have been demonized politically. The way to address this is to stop misinformation, not to cater to the incorrect notion that immigration and trade are bad for people.

I don't see inequality driving people on the right.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

In 1967, the average cost of a new house....$14,250
In 1967, the average cost of a new car.........$2750
In 1967, the average wage............................$7300

In 2017, the average cost of anew house.....$428k
In 2017, the average cost of a new car..........$36k
In 2017, the average wage..............................$52k

It will be seen that prices have increased proportionately higher than wages from 1967 to 2017.

In 1967, straight out of high school, my starting wage at the local factory was $5600/yr.
In order to continue college studies, I quit the factory and worked part time selling brushes door to door at triple my former average hourly rate.
Three years later, still in school, I had TWO Z28 Camaro's - one for the street and one to race.

Did you skip over the part of my post about asset price inflation? Because that was kind of the whole point...

 

[Dotini]

Did you skip over the part of my post about asset price inflation? Because that was kind of the whole point...

Did you skip over my point about wage price inflation not keeping up with asset price inflation? Because that's kinda the whole point of the last 50 years and the major issue of the "middle class" today. When you studied Econ in college, did you ever run cross the supply/demand curve?