Are you ready for the end of the ICE era?
- Thread starter Populuxe
- 158 comments
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My grumpy take is that I really don't care what becomes of the industry right now because I'm not really interested in anything newer than 2014 or so, ICE or not. Even if it's a naturally-aspirated manual transmission RWD two-door made especially for enthusiasts, cars have become extensions of the consumer electronics industry and slaves to conspicuous active safety features, and if you don't like it, you're increasingly SOL.
If that's how it's going to be, fine. Whatever. I'm not buying either way.
I am not on board with BEVs -- batteries are a pain in most things, really -- and I believe the market should dictate adoption, not legislative mandate, but the electric motor is objectively a superb alternative to an ICE by sheer simplicity. Motors are great. Batteries suck.
At any rate, living in a rural part of the U.S. -- and seeing many many properties of every income bracket in my work -- I cannot imagine the sunset of ICEs out here in my lifetime. The inertia to overcome and the costs must be staggering compared to urban areas and more densely populated countries. Civilization isn't even sparse here compared to the middle of Montana or something.
I both no longer care and am not very worried about the prospect of driving old cars for the rest of my life. Also, simulators are a great preservation of history because no metal gets bent.
If that's how it's going to be, fine. Whatever. I'm not buying either way.
I am not on board with BEVs -- batteries are a pain in most things, really -- and I believe the market should dictate adoption, not legislative mandate, but the electric motor is objectively a superb alternative to an ICE by sheer simplicity. Motors are great. Batteries suck.
At any rate, living in a rural part of the U.S. -- and seeing many many properties of every income bracket in my work -- I cannot imagine the sunset of ICEs out here in my lifetime. The inertia to overcome and the costs must be staggering compared to urban areas and more densely populated countries. Civilization isn't even sparse here compared to the middle of Montana or something.
I both no longer care and am not very worried about the prospect of driving old cars for the rest of my life. Also, simulators are a great preservation of history because no metal gets bent.
- 978
- India
- AfraidRacer
- AfraidRacer17
- 1,035
- United States
- LM7325
@Wolfe I don't really mind driving new cars, but currently 2006 is my arbitrary, self-made up never buy newer than year. Of course this is coming from a guy who can spend hours reading over archived Allison vs Merlin fighter engine debates in 2021.
There are several reasons I came to that approximate date. First, the elimination of a mechanical throttle interface, I don't fully trust that "Scotty" in the engine room always knows best when I request a power setting via the accelerator. Second, no more hydraulic power steering, (or no power assist for that matter) electric steering has improved I know, but we are back with "Scotty" (or Sulu) again with this. Third, I really like simple intuitive knobs, most new cars are putting too much emphasis on the massive screen in the center stack.
Electric cars could actually solve some of my new car worries, "Scotty" has much less on his plate when there is no engine in engineering. Time will tell.
There are several reasons I came to that approximate date. First, the elimination of a mechanical throttle interface, I don't fully trust that "Scotty" in the engine room always knows best when I request a power setting via the accelerator. Second, no more hydraulic power steering, (or no power assist for that matter) electric steering has improved I know, but we are back with "Scotty" (or Sulu) again with this. Third, I really like simple intuitive knobs, most new cars are putting too much emphasis on the massive screen in the center stack.
Electric cars could actually solve some of my new car worries, "Scotty" has much less on his plate when there is no engine in engineering. Time will tell.
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I'm going to wait a few more years before buying an electric car, if I'm in the market for buying one.
It seems that Solid State Batteries are going to be a thing from 2022 on and will have an energy density up to 400 Wh/kg.
https://thedriven.io/2021/02/02/chi...solid-state-battery-with-high-energy-density/
https://www.china-certification.com/en/china-announces-the-mass-production-of-solid-state-batteries/
https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/20...solid-state-battery-and-over-600-miles-range/
https://www.autoconnectedcar.com/20...-higher-energy-density-solid-state-batteries/
There are also other battery technologies that are very promising.
It seems that Solid State Batteries are going to be a thing from 2022 on and will have an energy density up to 400 Wh/kg.
https://thedriven.io/2021/02/02/chi...solid-state-battery-with-high-energy-density/
https://www.china-certification.com/en/china-announces-the-mass-production-of-solid-state-batteries/
https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/20...solid-state-battery-and-over-600-miles-range/
https://www.autoconnectedcar.com/20...-higher-energy-density-solid-state-batteries/
There are also other battery technologies that are very promising.
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- 11,831
- Marin County
From what I've been reading, solid state batteries of a scale even for use in a phone are a lot longer off than 2022.
- 11,831
- Marin County
Indeed. All we can do is wait and see.
I truly hope that SSB (Solid-State Batteries) of 400Kw/h are going to be mainstream in everything that needs batteries, especially EVs.
- 1,035
- United States
- LM7325
I adore reciprocating steam engines, they make lovely noises and seem almost alive. The ICE ended the reign of steam as we all know. This is history repeating itself as a better technology matures.
Once we get a full electric equivalent of the EMD FT (the diesel that convinced railroads steam was no longer the way) things will change rapidly. As good as electric is now, that has not happened just yet.
Once we get a full electric equivalent of the EMD FT (the diesel that convinced railroads steam was no longer the way) things will change rapidly. As good as electric is now, that has not happened just yet.
TonyJZX
(Banned)
- 3,945
- Australia
Firstly I'd say that the end of the ICE car is very premature at least here.
We hear that Jaguar are out of ICE by 2025... like... they are niche luxury anyway... and their iPace is a sign of where there are heading.
There are grumblings that Nissan Toyota and the Koreans are thinking 2030 for most passenger applications... ie. they will keep diesel 4x4 and light truck vans.
As much as I love the V8 manual rwd car the reality for me is manifold....
I live maybe less than 2 miles from a major shopping complex so why am I driving a 4,000lb SUV to get my stuff?
I work maybe 10-15 mins away.
I could do this in an EV and you would love it to if you didnt have to pay for gasoline with a large proportion of that going to govt. taxes.
For longer trips of course, use a gasoline or diesel vehicle.
I dont beleive at this point, one car doing it all.
Even if at some point Elon Musk gets his 1,000 mile Model S then that is fine too but I feel like we will always have an ICE alternative. The market demands it.
And I feel like the Chinese will end up supplying that market if the West and the Japanese and Koreans dont.
We hear that Jaguar are out of ICE by 2025... like... they are niche luxury anyway... and their iPace is a sign of where there are heading.
There are grumblings that Nissan Toyota and the Koreans are thinking 2030 for most passenger applications... ie. they will keep diesel 4x4 and light truck vans.
As much as I love the V8 manual rwd car the reality for me is manifold....
I live maybe less than 2 miles from a major shopping complex so why am I driving a 4,000lb SUV to get my stuff?
I work maybe 10-15 mins away.
I could do this in an EV and you would love it to if you didnt have to pay for gasoline with a large proportion of that going to govt. taxes.
For longer trips of course, use a gasoline or diesel vehicle.
I dont beleive at this point, one car doing it all.
Even if at some point Elon Musk gets his 1,000 mile Model S then that is fine too but I feel like we will always have an ICE alternative. The market demands it.
And I feel like the Chinese will end up supplying that market if the West and the Japanese and Koreans dont.
It's not a good thing for the planet and everything that is living on it but I hope Porsche can make this efuel work. And if it is around 70 - 85% cleaner than regular gasoline I'm all for it. Let's hope that they can develop an exhaust filter that filters out the remaining toxic gases/particles making this efuel environmentally friendly. Only the making of this efuel should be eco friendly as well.
Or make electric cars with a range extender from efuel and a perfect filter.
Or make electric cars with a range extender from efuel and a perfect filter.
- 10,824
- Plymouth, UK
- motorforum
I was going to save for a fast diesel daily, but sense has prevailed and now I'm saving for a quick petrol for weekend us such as E46 330ci, Z4, TT V6 etc.
One last engine sound hurrah before I lease electric for my daily driver.
I had always discounted the 1-series coupe in 125i spec, but last night I discovered it's actually the 3.0 engine with a restricted ECU on it to hold it back to 215hp. A quick flash brings it back to 260ish. So that's also under consideration.
I do know I don't want another turbocharged 4, though, it needs to be all about the sound and N/A response after three turbocharged cars in a row.
One last engine sound hurrah before I lease electric for my daily driver.
I had always discounted the 1-series coupe in 125i spec, but last night I discovered it's actually the 3.0 engine with a restricted ECU on it to hold it back to 215hp. A quick flash brings it back to 260ish. So that's also under consideration.
I do know I don't want another turbocharged 4, though, it needs to be all about the sound and N/A response after three turbocharged cars in a row.
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- 1,035
- United States
- LM7325
I am considering getting a Rivian R1T maybe in 3-5 years. The abysmal EV infrastructure around here may be better by then. But even if it does not improve much home charging may be sufficient for me 99.9 percent of the time anyway. I will probably always have a V8 or 3 to play with on the side, but electric seems to be winning me over.
- 17,879
- Florida
- GranTurismo0517
- RandomCarGuy17
I'll wait for the the charging times to improve and the overall network to increase.
- 20,681
- TenEightyOne
- TenEightyOne
But why? At the moment it's...
I think those improvements are coming and, as I always say, the more the customer bases increase the more you can be sure that the forecourt companies will be rolling out electricity sales points in all the places people leave their cars. The battery and charging technology will improve, as will ranges.
Part of that range increase is in autonomy, imo. For example, if you park at the lights you put your car in auto pull-away (I'm extemporising here) and when the lights change all the cars with auto pull away at once. Those behind a non-auto car will of course not pull away but will alert the driver that they're back in manual mode. Soon everybody will want auto and the combined energy/time wastage of stopping/starting in traffic grids will be significantly reduced.
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- motortrend
ROAD_DOGG33J
Premium
- 14,252
- IL, USA
- holyc0w1
- holyc0w
I'm kind of ready. ICE cars are dying a slow death with these turbo engines that are more efficient, but will probably cost you more in maintenance in the long run.
I just wonder how quickly things will change before gas stations start being closed down regularly.
I just wonder how quickly things will change before gas stations start being closed down regularly.
Scaff
Moderator
- 29,541
- He/Him
- ScaffUK
It does, but that's missing the point, EV's provide none at all. Its the problem with both Biofuels and Synthetic fuels, both can be (but aren't always) carbon neutral, but neither are zero-emissions.
They are a solid option for applications in which EV's don't work or don't work well (aircraft for example), but for the passenger car market, outside of classics that people will end up paying a fortune to refuel, it's not the long term answer. It's also not something that can be engineered out either, well unless you want to run around with compress O2 tanks in a car, because burning anything with air will produce emissions.
E85 isn't all advantage over regular gasoline either:
"EPA's stringent tier-II vehicle emission standards require that FFVs achieve the same low emissions level regardless whether E85 or gasoline is used. However, E85 can further reduce emissions of certain pollutants as compared to conventional gasoline or lower-volume ethanol blends. For example, E85 is less volatile than gasoline or low-volume ethanol blends, which results in fewer evaporative emissions. Using E85 also reduces carbon-monoxide emissions and provides significant reductions in emissions of many harmful toxics, including benzene, a known human carcinogen. However, E85 in certain engine operating conditions may increase emissions of acetaldehyde. EPA is conducting additional analysis to expand our understanding of the emissions impacts of E85"
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- 7,313
- Land of the smelly onion
EV's will improve over time, of course. Although, of the things I mentioned in my above post, range is the least of my concerns.
- 1,035
- United States
- LM7325
Being in the parts industry I talk to a lot of dealers and shops. From what I am seeing and hearing the latest generation of engines are not impressive as far as longevity is concerned. People used to nursing a tired GM 3800 V6 along are in for some sticker shock once they finally trade up.
With tightening emissions and fuel economy standards looming, things can only get worse from here. So electric, warts and all, is what my next new vehicle purchase will be.
- 20,681
- TenEightyOne
- TenEightyOne
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