Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

[baldgye]

Its actually happening, this time?

Official letter from 1922 Committee (hot linked to save space on the page)


And we have some official odds!!


Edit;

And the Pound is booming!

 

[Touring Mars]

My money is on May to win by a KO in the 3rd.

 

[baldgye]

My money is on May to win by a KO in the 3rd.

I agree I can't see her loosing the vote, but only because if she did that would basically end Brexit (as I can't see a Tory party leadership contest being anymore orderly than the last Labour one!)

 

[Robin]

Loosing the vote would not for sure mean no Brexit, it could mean no deal (hopefully if it comes to that in a managed an orderly fashion) Totally depends who the next leader is.

 

[baldgye]

Loosing the vote would not for sure mean no Brexit, it could mean no deal (hopefully if it comes to that in a managed an orderly fashion) Totally depends who the next leader is.

If no-deal happens, why does it matter the manner in which it happens?

 

[Touring Mars]

No deal, practically by definition, means a disorderly exit from the EU.

 

[Robin]

If no-deal happens, why does it matter the manner in which it happens?

Because a sudden no deal causes chaos whereas a 'lets all be adults about this' managed no deal exit can be done properly if the right people are put in to do it.

Frankly the government spent far too little time planning for that eventuality hence the panic. They should have equally covered all the bases instead of purely focusing on a deal with the EU which has not surprisingly lead to nowhere.

 

[baldgye]

Because a sudden no deal causes chaos whereas a 'lets all be adults about this' managed no deal exit can be done properly if the right people are put in to do it.

How did you come to that conclusion?
No-deal, means we literally crash out of the EU with no trade deals. We go from 700+ trade deals to literally zero. You cannot manage that. It's like cutting off an arm, even if you plan it you can't prevent a massive loss of blood.

Frankly the government spent far too little time planning for that eventuality hence the panic. They should have equally covered all the bases instead of purely focusing on a deal with the EU which has not surprisingly lead to nowhere.

What are you talking about?
The government has been stock-piling food and medicine, that is the only planning you can do. You can't negotiate trade deals with other nations outside of the EU.

 

[Liquid]

My money is on the guy who didn't know Britain is an island but you can't discount the guy who lied about impact assessment nor the guy who lied in parliament and resigned.

The outside bet might be the guy who in 2011 said two referenda would be necessary but now champions No Deal and thinks he knows better the governor of the Bank of England.

It's a veritable Who's That? of politicians.

 

[Touring Mars]

'lets be all adults about this'

Ironically, this is exactly what 'hard Brexiteers' gambled on all along - that sooner or later the EU would (have to) take a pragmatic approach and do what is necessary to avoid a no deal. But they haven't done that - and they are showing no sign of this at all.

The only saving grace is that a no deal/disorderly Brexit will force the EU (or at least individual member states) to take the necessary steps to mitigate the potentially disastrous effects on their own economies from a complete failure of the Brexit process - but this will run the risk of sewing chaos and division within the EU - one major reason why the EU should now be bending over backwards to help Theresa May get her deal through. But they won't.

As a few commentators have pointed out, 'No Deal' will likely turn out to be something more like a series of mini-deals that are cobbled together over the next few years, but the consequences for EU unity (not to mention growth and stability) could be grave. Of course the consequences for the UK will be pretty dire as well, but at least the UK will be free of EU oversight/control when it comes to taking steps to mitigate the worst effects of a No Deal, whereas EU member states will be left fighting each other at a time where they can ill-afford disunity.

 

[Robin]

What are you talking about?
The government has been stock-piling food and medicine, that is the only planning you can do. You can't negotiate trade deals with other nations outside of the EU.

Thats not 'planning out a no deal exit' that's 'contingency measurements for a bad no deal exit' due to inadequate planning. If we have no trade deals ready to go it's the governments fault for inadequate planning.

Planning means unpicking EU laws and regulations from our own and starting trade talks with other countries, things that were actually being carried out right after the vote until somewhere along the line May decided to abandon that and become a heat seeking missile on a deal... with a group of people that said from the get go that they will never give one that is more favourable than staying in the club!

Jeez it's like I have to explain the whole history of Brexit every post, all this stuff can be read in a million articles.

 

[Robin]

Ironically, this is exactly what 'hard Brexiteers' gambled on all along - that sooner or later the EU would (have to) take a pragmatic approach and do what is necessary to avoid a no deal. But they haven't done that - and they are showing no sign of this at all....

When you see an institution being as bloody minded and childish as that you should realise they can't be reasoned with an stop beating the dead horse.

A reasonable deal could have been reached, a reasonable no deal could have been reached, but now it's 'the hard way' instead!

 

[Touring Mars]

Thats not 'planning out a no deal exit' that's 'contingency measurements for a bad no deal exit' due to inadequate planning. If we have no trade deals ready to go it's the governments fault for inadequate planning.

Planning means unpicking EU laws and regulations from our own and starting trade talks with other countries, things that were actually being carried out right after the vote until somewhere along the line May decided to abandon that and become a heat seeking missile on a deal... with a group of people that said from the get go that they will never give one that is more favourable than staying in the club!

The UK is specifically prohibited from discussing new trade deals during the Article 50 process - as an EU member state until March 29th 2019, it is not legally possible to have made any trade deals before that point.

@baldgye As for having no trade deals if we crash out, that is true but we will still be allowed to trade with anyone we want on WTO terms until new trade deals are ready to go. Yes, that is far from ideal, but it is not like trade with the rest of the world, or even the EU, will suddenly cease.

 

[baldgye]

If we have no trade deals ready to go it's the governments fault for inadequate planning.

You don't understand EU law.

The UK is specifically prohibited from discussing new trade deals during the Article 50 process - as an EU member state until March 29th 2019, it is not legally possible to have made any trade deals before that point.

 

[Robin]

The UK is specifically prohibited from discussing new trade deals during the Article 50 process - as an EU member state until March 29th 2019, it is not legally possible to have made any trade deals before that point.

Ok, well rather 'start the ball rolling' as the government actually did do I recall, flying out to various countries on charm offensives. They did trade talks in all but name, holding Trump's hand down the steps!

 

[Robin]

You don't understand EU law.

And yet I'm not the one asking a million questions.

 

[baldgye]

Ok, well rather 'start the ball rolling' as the government actually did do I recall, flying out to various countries on charm offensives.

So they did plan for no-deal then?

And yet I'm not the one asking a million questions.

million and one now, or does this make it a million and two?

 

[Touring Mars]

Ok, well rather 'start the ball rolling' as the government actually did do I recall, flying out to various countries on charm offensives.

I believe that has been happening - Japan, the USA, and various other countries have made it clear that trade deals with the UK would be forthcoming and welcome... but the trouble is that our ability to make any new trade deals depends on the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement, as well as the Future Relationship (i.e. the future trade deal with the EU, that also cannot be negotiated prior to Brexit Day), that at this point in time will pretty much prevent the UK from making comprehensive new trade deals with the rest of the world. The EU have gone a step further and demanded that, irrespective of what the UK-EU's future relationship might turn out to be, that the UK will commit to a 'level playing field' and not be allowed to strike trade deals with third countries that give the UK a competitive advantage over the EU i.e. basically the same constraint that existing EU member states must abide by.

 

[Robin]

So they did plan for no-deal then?

For 5 minutes!

 

[baldgye]

@baldgye As for having no trade deals if we crash out, that is true but we will still be allowed to trade with anyone we want on WTO terms until new trade deals are ready to go. Yes, that is far from ideal, but it is not like trade with the rest of the world, or even the EU, will suddenly cease.

Oh yeah, but the period in which we have no deals will be utterly devastating and will have long lasting effects and repercussions, it'll also IMO be used as a bargaining chip against us for deals.

 

[Robin]

I believe that has been happening - Japan, the USA, and various other countries have made it clear that trade deals with the UK would be forthcoming and welcome... but the trouble is that our ability to make any new trade deals depends on the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement, as well as the Future Relationship (i.e. the future trade deal with the EU, that also cannot be negotiated prior to Brexit Day), that at this point in time will pretty much prevent the UK from making comprehensive new trade deals with the rest of the world. The EU have gone a step further and demanded that, irrespective of what the UK-EU's future relationship might turn out to be, that the UK will commit to a 'level playing field' and not be allowed to strike trade deals with third countries that give the UK a competitive advantage over the EU i.e. basically the same constraint that existing EU member states must abide by.

The problem was that in wholeheartedly pursuing an EU deal it inadvertently drove away a lot of interest from the other countries, it cooled everything because it looked like we were going to keep cosy with the EU.

The government could have still kept the 'this is not a trade deal' dialogue going even under the EU's conditions as you stated but they abandoned it pretty early on.

Let's be realistic, when has a country has not done things for its own interests on the 'down low' regardless of whatever duress they have been under. Frankly the way the EU has acted in all this do they blame the UK for seeking other options, the only shame is that the UK didn't fly in the face of the EU's leave legislation more!

 

[baldgye]

For 5 minutes!

no-deal will destroy the country and end the political career of those who achieve it. It's not been pursued because it's suicide, and the number of fish we'd need to farm is more that exist in our seas to make the difference

 

[Touring Mars]

no-deal will destroy the country

No it won't... but it will cause a lot of disruption and will inevitably hurt the people who can least afford it.

end the political career of those who achieve it.

See, it's not all bad news.

 

[DG_Silva]

Perhaps if he'd have picked it up, ran forward, launched himself off the table of the house shouting "THIS IS BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN!!!!!" and thrown the mace like a javelin in an attempt to skewer Chris Bercow onto the speakers chair it would have had more effect.

That's certainly one of the more inventive ways to get rid of biggest arse in the House of Commons, I'd pay good money to see that happen!

 

[baldgye]

No it won't... but it will cause a lot of disruption and will inevitably hurt the people who can least afford it.

Personally I feel it'll do far more damage than that.
The effects of Cameron's tightening of the belt on public services has helped see in a huge uptick in the homeless, no-deal would see their numbers not only swell, but the number living on the poverty boundary increase while the political elite's and the 1%'ers wealth grows. To my mind, that kind of sudden economic impact on so many will have long standing effects.

See, it's not all bad news.

 

[Liquid]

The problem was that in wholeheartedly pursuing an EU deal it inadvertently drove away a lot of interest from the other countries, it cooled everything because it looked like we were going to keep cosy with the EU.

But

There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside.

Unless that statement is a lie factual inexactitude, the UK can still go and get whatever sweet deals it wants around the world.

 

[Robin]

no-deal will destroy the country

The world and the UK did exist before the EU.

No it won't... but it will cause a lot of disruption and will inevitably hurt the people who can least afford it.

Temporarily. After that it might get better or it might get worse, as staying in the EU could have done. The whole point of the vote is that it's a leap of faith.

 

[baldgye]

The world and the UK did exist before the EU.

What relevance has that got to do with anything? Remind me again of how wonderful the 1970's where... wait, I just asked another question instead of just making random statements!

 

[Liquid]

After that it might get better or it might get worse, as staying in the EU could have done. The whole point of the vote is that it's a leap of faith.

Leaps of faith are not what the future of countries should be gambled on.

 

[Robin]

What relevance has that got to do with anything? Remind me again of how wonderful the 1970's where... wait, I just asked another question instead of just making random statements!

I wasn't alive but my parents by all accounts had a great time. My statement comes from the irrational doom and gloom statement which proceeded it. I'm pretty sure WWII had a better chance of 'destroying the country' than Brexit.

Leaps of faith are not what the future of countries should be gambled on.

Then nothing ever moves forward, most leaders for example are elected because people want a change, it might not always go well.