Brexit - The UK leaves the EU
- Thread starter Touring Mars
- 6,870 comments
- 301,532 views
- 29,371
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
A move toward Scottish independence during or soon after Brexit would be a disastrous mistake. Ironically, most Scottish nationalists appear to reject the concept of Brexit yet fail to appreciate the (obvious) parallels between Brexit and 'Scexit'.
The main justification for another Scottish independence vote appears to be that most Scots wish to retain EU membership, but it is simply not possible for Scotland to do so if the UK as a whole leaves. The best case scenario is that an independent Scotland gets expedited re-entry into the EU - the EU would almost certainly want this and make it as easy as possible... but at what cost?
For an independent Scotland, EU membership would entail a hard and/or customs border with England and NI, tariffs on trade with our largest markets (the UK), a legal obligation to adopt the Euro, etc. etc...
My guess is that a second independence vote would fail, and I would hope it did.
The main justification for another Scottish independence vote appears to be that most Scots wish to retain EU membership, but it is simply not possible for Scotland to do so if the UK as a whole leaves. The best case scenario is that an independent Scotland gets expedited re-entry into the EU - the EU would almost certainly want this and make it as easy as possible... but at what cost?
For an independent Scotland, EU membership would entail a hard and/or customs border with England and NI, tariffs on trade with our largest markets (the UK), a legal obligation to adopt the Euro, etc. etc...
My guess is that a second independence vote would fail, and I would hope it did.
- 251
- Provence
There is zero obligation to join the EU but if there were I wouldn't have a problem with it.
- 29,371
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
- 251
- Provence
Sorry, auto-correct let me down there. I meant to say there's no obligation to join the Euro. I'm all in favour of the EU but I'm also all for the Euro. Sadly, many of my countrymen seem to think what their money is called is important.
- 29,371
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
Scotland would be legally obliged to commit to adopt the Euro unless an exemption is negotiated, but given the future path of the EU, that seems very unlikely.
Switching to the Euro is by no means simply a question of taste, however - it means handing over control over our monetary policy and budget directly to Brussels, which to many defeats the purpose of independence.
Switching to the Euro is by no means simply a question of taste, however - it means handing over control over our monetary policy and budget directly to Brussels, which to many defeats the purpose of independence.
- 20,681
- TenEightyOne
- TenEightyOne
- 29,952
- Bratvegas
- GTP_Liquid
The EU countries that don't use the Euro were using other currencies as EU members before the introduction of the Euro or are new(ish) members in the process of joining the Eurozone such as Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria.
There is the question of deliberately failing the criteria to join the Eurozone as Czechia and Hungary do but no new EU member state, that is to say a member state joining after the 2002 introduction of the physical Euro currency, will ever get the exemption that Denmark and the United Kingdom received.
Adopting the Euro is now a condition, in principle at least, of joining the EU.
There is the question of deliberately failing the criteria to join the Eurozone as Czechia and Hungary do but no new EU member state, that is to say a member state joining after the 2002 introduction of the physical Euro currency, will ever get the exemption that Denmark and the United Kingdom received.
Adopting the Euro is now a condition, in principle at least, of joining the EU.
Last edited:
- 29,371
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
I reckon that it is only a matter of time until non-Euro using EU member states face a choice like that already taken in the UK - when it comes to full European integration, are you in or are you out?
The trouble for Sweden is that it is staunchly opposed to the Euro, but for now it remains strongly in favour of staying in the EU. But, what happens when those two facts become mutually incompatible? It is quite likely that this dilemma will be faced by countries such as Sweden and Denmark eventually.
The appetite for the Euro in Scotland is already very low and may well set a decidedly negative tone for future accession negotiations.. but Scexiteers seem emboldened with the same misguided optimism/hubris as Brexiteers when it comes to what concessions the EU will be willing to make. They stand to be disappointed if they really believe that the terms of Scotland's future EU membership can be cherry-picked.
The trouble for Sweden is that it is staunchly opposed to the Euro, but for now it remains strongly in favour of staying in the EU. But, what happens when those two facts become mutually incompatible? It is quite likely that this dilemma will be faced by countries such as Sweden and Denmark eventually.
The appetite for the Euro in Scotland is already very low and may well set a decidedly negative tone for future accession negotiations.. but Scexiteers seem emboldened with the same misguided optimism/hubris as Brexiteers when it comes to what concessions the EU will be willing to make. They stand to be disappointed if they really believe that the terms of Scotland's future EU membership can be cherry-picked.
- 20,681
- TenEightyOne
- TenEightyOne
I haven't heard much on this lately but a couple of years ago I definitely remember one of the Conservatives saying that the EU will give everybody exactly what they want in any given negotiation.
- 20,681
- TenEightyOne
- TenEightyOne
- 4,722
- United Kingdom
German cockney. It's no more strange than many of the other cocktails of accent available with cockney.
Mmmm, cocktails.
- 29,371
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
If the imminent defeat of Theresa May's Brexit deal can be credited to one person, it must be Dominic Grieve.
His amendments have, in effect, robbed Theresa May of her trump card - the threat of pursuing a No Deal Brexit.
Grieve is a Conservative heavy weight, a former Attorney General, who voted to Remain in the EU and is responsible for both of the key amendments that all but guarantee that No Deal cannot proceed without Parliamentary approval. He has seemingly played his cards perfectly, putting forward critical amendments at precisely the right time, and now Theresa May - who faces almost certain defeat next week - has lost the one weapon she had left (the threat of No Deal) to 'persuade' MPs to vote for her deal.
I've been listening to speeches in the Commons over the last couple of days and it is painfully clear that May's deal does not have nearly enough support to pass through Parliament... but No Deal has even less support. No Deal only ever had any power as a bargaining chip if May was able to impose it without Parliamentary approval - but to do that she needed to win the necessary votes to stop Parliament from wresting back control, but she has failed on all of these votes...
As such, No Deal is effectively (and perhaps thankfully) now almost impossible - but May's 'deal' is also seemingly dead in the water. Labour's ideas of how to proceed with Brexit are unworkable and, frankly, even more woefully over-optimisic and hence unrealistic. And, the EU has made it painfully clear that there is no chance of any change to the deal being offered to the UK.
That, in my estimation at least, leaves just one viable option - revoking Article 50.
I have mixed emotions on this... personally, I believe that the Brexit vote itself was a terrible, terrible mistake and I would be delighted if it were over-turned.... crucially, we now know that we can reverse the decision. But - I am also aware of the problems that such a move would cause... and I still believe that the EU itself needs to change from its current path on many issues before the UK will ever be a snug fit within it - that is no small ask, and I fear that it is more likely than not that the EU's future direction is even more opposed to that envisaged by the UK. However, what is abundantly clear is that there is no way to leave the EU that leaves the UK better off, and that the UK's current place in the EU really is the 'best of both worlds' that, if the UK were to apply to join the EU today, we would never get again.
It remains to be seen how this debacle will play out, but I hope that if May's deal is defeated next week, then the decision will be taken to revoke Article 50 and put the option of leaving the EU back to the people in a few year's time when the people charged with such a task start by explaining exactly what it will involve and how it will be done before a vote is held on the matter. But, in any event, this current sorry state of affairs needs to end and the sooner the better IMHO.
His amendments have, in effect, robbed Theresa May of her trump card - the threat of pursuing a No Deal Brexit.
Grieve is a Conservative heavy weight, a former Attorney General, who voted to Remain in the EU and is responsible for both of the key amendments that all but guarantee that No Deal cannot proceed without Parliamentary approval. He has seemingly played his cards perfectly, putting forward critical amendments at precisely the right time, and now Theresa May - who faces almost certain defeat next week - has lost the one weapon she had left (the threat of No Deal) to 'persuade' MPs to vote for her deal.
I've been listening to speeches in the Commons over the last couple of days and it is painfully clear that May's deal does not have nearly enough support to pass through Parliament... but No Deal has even less support. No Deal only ever had any power as a bargaining chip if May was able to impose it without Parliamentary approval - but to do that she needed to win the necessary votes to stop Parliament from wresting back control, but she has failed on all of these votes...
As such, No Deal is effectively (and perhaps thankfully) now almost impossible - but May's 'deal' is also seemingly dead in the water. Labour's ideas of how to proceed with Brexit are unworkable and, frankly, even more woefully over-optimisic and hence unrealistic. And, the EU has made it painfully clear that there is no chance of any change to the deal being offered to the UK.
That, in my estimation at least, leaves just one viable option - revoking Article 50.
I have mixed emotions on this... personally, I believe that the Brexit vote itself was a terrible, terrible mistake and I would be delighted if it were over-turned.... crucially, we now know that we can reverse the decision. But - I am also aware of the problems that such a move would cause... and I still believe that the EU itself needs to change from its current path on many issues before the UK will ever be a snug fit within it - that is no small ask, and I fear that it is more likely than not that the EU's future direction is even more opposed to that envisaged by the UK. However, what is abundantly clear is that there is no way to leave the EU that leaves the UK better off, and that the UK's current place in the EU really is the 'best of both worlds' that, if the UK were to apply to join the EU today, we would never get again.
It remains to be seen how this debacle will play out, but I hope that if May's deal is defeated next week, then the decision will be taken to revoke Article 50 and put the option of leaving the EU back to the people in a few year's time when the people charged with such a task start by explaining exactly what it will involve and how it will be done before a vote is held on the matter. But, in any event, this current sorry state of affairs needs to end and the sooner the better IMHO.
- 7,177
- Lisboa
- FLAT_TWELVE
I too can't see the UK's Parliament voting May's deal.
But I can't also understand why you say Mr Grieve's Amendments make no deal impossible. True, Mrs. May can't say "it's my deal or no deal", but the EU has made it abundantly clear that … it is May's Deal or No Deal. And Mr. Grieve doesn't command the EU institutions to reach another deal, not in 3 years, or months or indeed … days (it says a lot about the lunacy of it all that such a deadline to reach an international deal can be set)
You say the UK could break this impasse by simply and unilaterally revoking Article 50.
But I can't see the UK's Parliament voting such a thing and here lies my disagreement with your (excellent, concise and clear btw) analysis.
I can however see a delegation of MPs or whatever else is left of this government to try a desperate new trip to Mordor, sorry Brussels, to ask for the EU's permission to delay Brexit day. Maybe one year.
I know I have been - scarcely - writing for about two years that this whole Brexit thing is a slow motion train wreck of biblical proportions, but now I feel we can almost "smell" this meltdown, so close we are to it. I thought the whole thing was unbelievable. Now it is becoming clear that I have to start believing it may really, REALLY happen in a very catastrophic way.
But I can't also understand why you say Mr Grieve's Amendments make no deal impossible. True, Mrs. May can't say "it's my deal or no deal", but the EU has made it abundantly clear that … it is May's Deal or No Deal. And Mr. Grieve doesn't command the EU institutions to reach another deal, not in 3 years, or months or indeed … days (it says a lot about the lunacy of it all that such a deadline to reach an international deal can be set)
You say the UK could break this impasse by simply and unilaterally revoking Article 50.
But I can't see the UK's Parliament voting such a thing and here lies my disagreement with your (excellent, concise and clear btw) analysis.
I can however see a delegation of MPs or whatever else is left of this government to try a desperate new trip to Mordor, sorry Brussels, to ask for the EU's permission to delay Brexit day. Maybe one year.
I know I have been - scarcely - writing for about two years that this whole Brexit thing is a slow motion train wreck of biblical proportions, but now I feel we can almost "smell" this meltdown, so close we are to it. I thought the whole thing was unbelievable. Now it is becoming clear that I have to start believing it may really, REALLY happen in a very catastrophic way.
- 29,371
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
You are quite right that it is probably not going to be as straightforward as it may appear - I don't think No Deal is completely off the table yet, but it is now considerably less likely than it was, thanks to the Grieve amendments and May's unswerving devotion to her (now doomed) deal.
The government could decide to revoke Article 50 unilaterally, but that is highly doubtful. But, it is now much more likely that the final decision to leave may well be put to another public vote, leaving the door open for a revocation of Article 50.
It was pointed out in the House of Commons today that the lobby for voting against May's deal will be filled by two completely different kinds of MPs - those who can't stomach May's deal because it will not deliver the Brexit they want (i.e. Hard Brexiteers) and those who wish to see the whole sorry affair put to bed for another few years (i.e. Remainers). Between them they will bring May's deal down, but Hard Brexiteers now know that by doing so they will also potentially (and, in my view, quite likely) lose Brexit altogether... but, even that may be preferable to them than accepting a bad deal that will permanently scupper a possible Hard Brexit some time in the future. It could well be that the best hope for Hard Brexiteers is to just scrap the entire thing and go with the status quo for another 5-10 years before trying again, but next time they will have a much better game plan... or any game plan, for that matter.
Next week will be fascinating and frightening in equal measure.
The government could decide to revoke Article 50 unilaterally, but that is highly doubtful. But, it is now much more likely that the final decision to leave may well be put to another public vote, leaving the door open for a revocation of Article 50.
It was pointed out in the House of Commons today that the lobby for voting against May's deal will be filled by two completely different kinds of MPs - those who can't stomach May's deal because it will not deliver the Brexit they want (i.e. Hard Brexiteers) and those who wish to see the whole sorry affair put to bed for another few years (i.e. Remainers). Between them they will bring May's deal down, but Hard Brexiteers now know that by doing so they will also potentially (and, in my view, quite likely) lose Brexit altogether... but, even that may be preferable to them than accepting a bad deal that will permanently scupper a possible Hard Brexit some time in the future. It could well be that the best hope for Hard Brexiteers is to just scrap the entire thing and go with the status quo for another 5-10 years before trying again, but next time they will have a much better game plan... or any game plan, for that matter.
Next week will be fascinating and frightening in equal measure.
Tired Tyres
Premium
- 12,602
- West Yorkshire
- Tired_Tyres
- Tired Tyres
There are only three possible outcomes as far as I can see.
If she wins the vote, that is how we leave the EU. If she loses, then the only things that can happen are Hard Bexit and staying in the EU.
No amount of UK politician amendments can get the EU to renegotiate the deal. Nor can a new deal be made in such a short time frame no matter what Labour say.
Neither retraction following reimplementation of Article 50 or an extension of time before leaving is practical. No decision would be made in that eventuality as everyone would keep putting off the negotiation and adding more delays which would leave our country in permanent limbo.
Dotini
(Banned)
- 15,742
- Seattle
- CR80_Shifty
Would permanent limbo be an unrealistic and/or undesirable outcome?
Tired Tyres
Premium
- 12,602
- West Yorkshire
- Tired_Tyres
- Tired Tyres
- 29,371
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
This week will be make or break for Brexit and, quite possibly, Theresa May and the Conservative government.
The vote of Theresa May's Brexit deal is still looking extremely likely to fail, and now the government will have just three days to put forward their proposals for a 'Plan B'... though it is not at all clear what happens if that doesn't happen.
What is very likely, however, is that Labour will call a vote of no confidence in the government, which could trigger a General Election. But... it is not clear what that will solve with regards to Brexit. It is also still more likely than not that the government can win a vote of no confidence, as pro-Brexiteers who are going to vote against May's deal will not wish to lose control over the process altogether.
On Tuesday evening/Wednesday, we can expect to see a group of pro-Brexit Tory MPs launch their bid to take control of the Brexit process and effetcively force Theresa May's hand toward pursuing a 'Canada +' style deal instead of her plan - but it is hard to see how this can possibly work given that the EU have refused to budge an inch and have repeatedly declared the Brexit withdrawal agreement negotiations as permanently closed.
All bets are off at this stage, but it is perhaps comforting to know that No Brexit (revoking Article 50) is not only possible but will probably be the only position that can command a majority in the House of Commons - however, if it cannot, then the UK and the EU will face a No Deal exit.
The vote of Theresa May's Brexit deal is still looking extremely likely to fail, and now the government will have just three days to put forward their proposals for a 'Plan B'... though it is not at all clear what happens if that doesn't happen.
What is very likely, however, is that Labour will call a vote of no confidence in the government, which could trigger a General Election. But... it is not clear what that will solve with regards to Brexit. It is also still more likely than not that the government can win a vote of no confidence, as pro-Brexiteers who are going to vote against May's deal will not wish to lose control over the process altogether.
On Tuesday evening/Wednesday, we can expect to see a group of pro-Brexit Tory MPs launch their bid to take control of the Brexit process and effetcively force Theresa May's hand toward pursuing a 'Canada +' style deal instead of her plan - but it is hard to see how this can possibly work given that the EU have refused to budge an inch and have repeatedly declared the Brexit withdrawal agreement negotiations as permanently closed.
All bets are off at this stage, but it is perhaps comforting to know that No Brexit (revoking Article 50) is not only possible but will probably be the only position that can command a majority in the House of Commons - however, if it cannot, then the UK and the EU will face a No Deal exit.
- 29,952
- Bratvegas
- GTP_Liquid
My secondary gripe at the moment is the refusal of Jeremy Corbyn to bite the bullet and just come out and say that he's in favour of Brexit. He talks on and on and on about the many and the few, how this government's mandate has expired and, crucially, how he would negotiate a better deal that works in favour of everyone. Never mind that that is a contradiction because no withdrawal deal can equally benefit both the UK and the EU, the fact that he's saying he would get a better deal all but says that his Labour is a Brexit Labour.
This goes against many, many, of his supporters. Check out any comment section on a Labour or Corbyn social media post and it's full of people who feel let down by Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party. It's a fair assumption that a sizeable plurality if not outright majority of Remain voters are Labour voters and their own leader isn't in favour of it. The 'official' opposition isn't, well... opposing.
I understand that he's a principled man but this is very unprincipled and what you might call "typical politician" behaviour; he may very well have already signed his own resignation letter.
This goes against many, many, of his supporters. Check out any comment section on a Labour or Corbyn social media post and it's full of people who feel let down by Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party. It's a fair assumption that a sizeable plurality if not outright majority of Remain voters are Labour voters and their own leader isn't in favour of it. The 'official' opposition isn't, well... opposing.
I understand that he's a principled man but this is very unprincipled and what you might call "typical politician" behaviour; he may very well have already signed his own resignation letter.
- 20,681
- TenEightyOne
- TenEightyOne
I don't think he ever will - he was against joining the EU in the first place and he's an ideological pitbull. In geography teacher's clothing.
Strangely this seem to appeal to a hardcore of Socialist Worker readers in the party ranks who everybody had forgotten existed. That's why the best potential party leaders are on the backbenches.
- 29,371
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
Jeremy Corbyn is an idiot.
If Labour succeed in bringing down Theresa May's government and thus forcing a snap General Election, I would be extremely worried - not least because of the prospect of Corbyn taking charge of the Brexit process as he is clearly even more deluded than Theresa May when it comes to what the EU will allow.
But, with a very large number of Tory voters destined never to vote for the Tories again, and an equally large number of Labour voters who may well change their minds on Corbyn, we could well see a resurgence for the Lib Dems whose stance on Brexit is controversial but absolutely clear - reject it. I reckon the Lib Dems could win a snap General Election just by campaigning to revoke Article 50 unilaterally. I would be extremely worried about that prospect - not because of what might happen to the country, but because there would be an extremely high chance of me dying with laughter.
If Labour succeed in bringing down Theresa May's government and thus forcing a snap General Election, I would be extremely worried - not least because of the prospect of Corbyn taking charge of the Brexit process as he is clearly even more deluded than Theresa May when it comes to what the EU will allow.
But, with a very large number of Tory voters destined never to vote for the Tories again, and an equally large number of Labour voters who may well change their minds on Corbyn, we could well see a resurgence for the Lib Dems whose stance on Brexit is controversial but absolutely clear - reject it. I reckon the Lib Dems could win a snap General Election just by campaigning to revoke Article 50 unilaterally. I would be extremely worried about that prospect - not because of what might happen to the country, but because there would be an extremely high chance of me dying with laughter.
