Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

Deal or No Deal?

  • Voted Leave - May's Deal

  • Voted Leave - No Deal

  • Voted Leave - Second Referendum

  • Did not vote/abstained - May's Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - No Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - Second Referendum

  • Voted Remain - May's Deal

  • Voted Remain - No Deal

  • Voted Remain - Second Referendum

Results are only viewable after voting.
Touring Mars
Interesting to note, too, that a low turnout in a second referendum/confirmatory vote would call into question the legitimacy of the result - and also beg the question, why wasn't the first referendum legally binding?
Click to expand...

...yeah... a low turn out/similar result would call into question the legitimacy of the result, despite the fact that one side of the campaign being found in breach of election law didn't... :rolleyes:
 
"May I say to the right honourable prime minister... if you Go Compare the options and deals the UK ha.........."

... door crashes open ...

skynews-gio-compario-go-compare_4186792.jpg
 
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the influential eurosceptic 'European Research Group' (ERG) within the Conservative party, has dropped his staunch opposition to the Irish backstop. (Source (paywall))

This is potentially a massive development, since scrapping the backstop altogether was a key demand of eurosceptics and has, thus far, prevented the Prime Minister from achieving a vote in favour of an existing deal.

That said, the ball is still very much in the EU's court insofar as there will still need to be changes made to the backstop before it is acceptable to a majority of UK MPs, but there was never going to be a deal while so many MPs insisted on scrapping the backstop altogether.

This development could, hopefully, pave the way for the EU to agree to a legally-binding commitment to ensure that alternative arrangements for the Irish border are implemented within a given time frame to ensure that the backstop cannot persist indefinitely.
 
Spain will block an extension to Article 50 without conditions and France will block an extension unless the UK hold another referendum...

Quelle surprise.
 
Touring Mars
Spain will block an extension to Article 50 without conditions and France will block an extension unless the UK hold another referendum...

Quelle surprise.
Click to expand...

Hence no change in the date was ever going to be possible and therefore unless they vote for the deal we are out hard. The End.
 
Tired Tyres
Hence no change in the date was ever going to be possible and therefore unless they vote for the deal we are out hard. The End.
Click to expand...
It's also a good indicator of what will happen even if there is a deal - it bears remembering that the 'deal' being argued over now is only the exit arrangements - the tough negotiations haven't even started yet. France seem hell-bent on gaining as much as they can from Brexit... but, in a massive slice of irony, it may well be that the EU itself will bring belligerent member states like France to heel, and not allow any one opportunist member state to scupper a possible deal because they get greedy. Individual member states do have a veto of sorts, but one member state cannot effectively use such a veto when (as is the case with Brexit) it could mean a catastrophe for all other member states. It is highly ironic that the UK's best hopes of a reasonable deal lie with the fact that the EU's centralised and collective power should ultimately over-ride any one member state's concerns... but the trouble is that member states do still have the capacity to cause trouble should they insist upon it, but that would bring them into direct conflict with all other member states.
 
Another day, another Brexit curveball - but this one is quite interesting...

Labour are proposing to abstain on Theresa May's Brexit deal if she commits to subsequently putting it to a public 'approval' vote...
 
Touring Mars
Another day, another Brexit curveball - but this one is quite interesting...

Labour are proposing to abstain on Theresa May's Brexit deal if she commits to subsequently putting it to a public 'approval' vote...
Click to expand...
Even if this were to go ahead, what do they propose would happen were the public to "reject"/disapprove the deal?
 
UKMikey
Even if this were to go ahead, what do they propose would happen were the public to "reject"/disapprove the deal?
Click to expand...
And what question would be asked?

Deal or no deal is the only one actually possible.

What about people who don't want to leave? You can't have three choices because of vote split, and staying in the EU wouldn't be included because that wouldn't be the question being asked.

It is deal or no deal.

I doubt that would make remainers happy at all. It would also make another referendum on the EU not getting asked as asking for yet another vote would be getting rather silly.
 
UKMikey
Even if this were to go ahead, what do they propose would happen were the public to "reject"/disapprove the deal?
Click to expand...
Good question - I'm guessing that Labour would insist that the vote be 'Do you wish to exit the EU on Theresa May's deal terms, or Remain in the EU?' - but a fairer vote would be simply 'Do you approve of the Withdrawal Agreement - yes or no?'

While the first question would provide some instruction on what to do if the deal is rejected, it would also be (rightly) construed as a means of reversing the first referendum result, which is arguably not a fair vote. I reckon if a second public vote were to be held, there should be at least 4 or 5 options, with an even split of 'leave' and 'remain' options i.e.
  • Exit with No Deal/WTO terms
  • Exit with the current deal
  • Leave the EU but Remain in the Single Market (Norway deal)
  • Revoke Article 50 and Remain in the EU
plus possibly
  • Extend Article 50 in order to negotiate a new deal
Obviously, no single option (even in a 3-way vote) would get an absolute majority, which would seriously call into question the meaningfulness of the result - but the reality is that there is not just two options on the table any more. Perhaps the original referendum should have been more detailed, but ironically it was its very simplicity that made the result easy enough to clearly interpret.

Perhaps a fairer vote would be simply to ask the public if they want the deal that's on the table or not - and if there is a no vote, then nothing much would change. Opponents of the deal in Parliament may feel more justified in continuing to vote against the deal, but ultimately it would still boil down to the same argument as exists now - either vote for a deal or leave with No Deal.
 
Perhaps surprisingly, Spain has confirmed today that UK citizens will be allowed to stay in Spain in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47412708

Spain have also confirmed that they will guarantee healthcare for Britons after Brexit as well:

https://www.ft.com/content/8d31c486-3c06-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0

-

It is pretty crazy that while the UK have already committed to guaranteeing that EU citizens can remain in the UK under all circumstances (including No Deal), the EU cannot give the same guarantee to UK citizens in Europe because it is up to individual member states to decide.
 
Touring Mars
It is pretty crazy that while the UK have already committed to guaranteeing that EU citizens can remain in the UK under all circumstances (including No Deal), the EU cannot give the same guarantee to UK citizens in Europe because it is up to individual member states to decide.
Click to expand...

Weird! It's almost like, the EU doesn't govern over or make the laws for its member states... good thing we know that's not true!
 
Today is admissions for secondary schools and a record 100,000 pupils (nearly 20%) will miss out on their first choice primarily due to uncontrolled migration from the EU in the past 3 decades. In the old days it was pretty easy to get into a local school of your choosing and it was no problem especially if you had siblings in the same school. Funny how remainers don't seem to have a problem with their kids going to 3rd rate schools, lets stay and end up with no school places whatsoever! The government can't create schools fast enough and have had problems recruiting teachers into the profession because who would want to deal with the class numbers these days.
 
Robin
In the old days it was pretty easy to get into a local school of your choosing and it was no problem especially if you had siblings in the same school..
Click to expand...
In the old days (1977) I wasn't able to get into my brother's school (the only grammar school in the area) and instead they forced me to put the local comprehensive as my third choice while assuring my parents that I wouldn't go there. Needless to say the comprehensive was exactly where I ended up as they'd abolished the eleven plus and the chance to enter schools on merit the previous year as part of the fully comprehensive experiment.

So my personal experience is very different from the "it was alright before they started coming over here" angle. Fortunately since the referendum EU migration has dropped considerably. Too bad non EU migration has more than filled the gap according to this ONS chart and I don't see it going down while we're busy signing trade deals with African countries. Perhaps you should point the finger of blame elsewhere rather than at the "filthy remoaners".

(source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ncreased-while-eu-net-migration-has-decreased)

migration.png
 
Last edited:
Robin
Today is admissions for secondary schools and a record 100,000 pupils (nearly 20%) will miss out on their first choice primarily due to uncontrolled migration from the EU in the past 3 decades.
Click to expand...

Citation for that primary driver?

The effect seems to be more to do with catchment-surfing and easily-searchable school ratings more than anything else. The presumption is that first choices are the local "family" secondary when very often that isn't the case any more.
 
UKMikey
In the old days (1977) I wasn't able to get into my brother's school (the only grammar school in the area) and instead they forced me to put the local comprehensive as my third choice while assuring my parents that I wouldn't go there. Needless to say the comprehensive was exactly where I ended up as they'd abolished the eleven plus and the chance to enter schools on merit the previous year as part of the fully comprehensive experiment.

So my personal experience is very different from the "it was alright before they started coming over here" angle. Fortunately since the referendum EU migration has dropped considerably. Too bad non EU migration has more than filled the gap according to this ONS chart and I don't see it going down while we're busy signing trade deals with African countries.

(source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ncreased-while-eu-net-migration-has-decreased)

View attachment 803192
Click to expand...

There were always people who didn't get their first choice but the amount of people denied that choice has increased due to record numbers of applications because there are more people and that's a simple fact. The increase in non EU migration since the referendum in not the cause of the increase in demand in school places because of the lead time. EU migration in the 90's and 00's has decades later caused a mini baby boom generation. Down the line these new post referendum migrants may impact school capacity (although the drop in EU migration will probably mitigate that) but they are not causing the crisis now.

UKMikey
Perhaps you should point the finger of blame elsewhere rather than at the "filthy remoaners".
Click to expand...

Much like how people have blamed the "fithy brexiteers" for pretty much EVERYTHING since the referendum including stuff which has nothing to do with it (Honda, Airbus etc etc). Ironically the increase is school children is totally down to our membership of the EU and nothing else, something remainers love with a passion. Evidently they don't have children.

TenEightyOne
Citation for that primary driver?
Click to expand...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...es/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AsGr25mZ9bln
Around 115,000 children across England will be left disappointed due to a continuing shortage of places, according to analysis by The Good Schools Guide.
Click to expand...


TenEightyOne
The effect seems to be more to do with catchment-surfing and easily-searchable school ratings more than anything else. The presumption is that first choices are the local "family" secondary when very often that isn't the case any more.
Click to expand...

That is in no way going to be the main reason for these increases. Catchment surfing, something that only a few can afford to do and something which is monitored by schools to stop unfair admissions is not causing a 1% year on year reduction in people getting places which is now standing at roughly 20% and in some areas is as high as 47%. Also I would disagree that people these days don't necessarily want to go to a school that previous family or siblings have gone to. Unless it was utterly appalling people tend to want to go to them out some sort of familiarity, it's not all about academic performance.
 
Last edited:
Robin
Ironically the increase is school children is totally down to our membership of the EU and nothing else, something remainers love with a passion. Evidently they don't have children.
Click to expand...
Still waiting for a citation. The link you provided doesn't even mention EU migration. Thanks for pointing the finger at remainers some more though. I'm pretty sure they were thinking of their kids when they voted not to tank the economy.

Any idea how the non EU migration rate is being mitigated by the drop in EU migration when the ONS graph contradicts this?
 
Robin
The link I provided wasn't for you or for your question that you didn't even ask.
Click to expand...
Welcome to the internet. It's a public forum.

Are you going to provide any figures backing up your assertions that the rise in population is primarily down to EU migration (or that this has anything to do with the squeeze on secondary school places)?

[EDIT] More ONS statistics
 
Last edited:
Robin
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...es/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AsGr25mZ9bln
Click to expand...

Where does that show that the increase in applications for popular schools that has led to greater numbers of first choice rejections is "primarily" down to immigration?

Perhaps the explanation is a spike in the previous decade's birth rate, lots of good British babies popping out of fine British fannies.

Robin
Catchment surfing, something that only a few can afford to do and something which is monitored by schools to stop unfair admissions is not causing a 1% year on year reduction in people getting places which is now standing at roughly 20% and in some areas is as high as 47%.
Click to expand...

Up to a quarter of parents move for a catchment area so it follows that there will be catchments that see a significant effect from this.

Robin
The link I provided wasn't for you or for your question that you didn't even ask.
Click to expand...

Not sure why that's an issue, but as I asked first I'll ask again - do you have a source to show that the increasing rate of first-choice Secondary rejections is "primarily" (your claim) down to immigration? Given that you're wrong I suspect you don't.
 
I don't quite understand why people need an article spelling out individual accepted facts that impact one another. Can't you not, or maybe you don't want to, join the dots yourself? It's like asking where babies come from!

I am well aware that there has been plenty of CONTROLLED migration, that's the migration the government plans and provisions for because they control it. That has not impacted school places because places are created for that increase. It's the UNCONTROLLED migration that has added that extra over capacity, that has in turn caused the percentage that now can't find places in schools. By the way, the number of children born to non UK born mothers was 28% in 2016 with Polish mothers being the biggest demographic, so questioning where all these children are coming from is ludicrous.

But if you absolutely need a source that says the word migration...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...n-set-miss-choice-secondary-school-today.html

and in 2016 from a government minister...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ation-migrants-british-children-a6990056.html

So I'm 'wrong'... :rolleyes:
 
Last edited:
Robin
I don't quite understand why people need an article spelling out individual accepted facts that impact one another. Can't you not, or maybe you don't want to, join the dots yourself? It's like asking where babies come from!
Click to expand...
I provided sources to back up what I said. They, and I, don't agree with your dots so I don't see why I should have to do your work for you as well as my own. However, I'll break it down for you to make things easier.

The ONS report I quoted above estimated immigration as adding 282,000 people to a population of 66.6 million. As a percentage that works out at 0.427% of the population. Given that some of this is controlled according to your following paragraph, how much impact do you think the school age fraction of this fraction has on the education system by itself?

In other words, where do you think the majority of babies born in Britain come from?

Robin
I am well aware that there has been plenty of CONTROLLED migration, that's the migration the government plans and provisions for because they control it. That has not impacted school places because places are created for that increase. It's the UNCONTROLLED migration that has added that extra over capacity, that has in turn caused the percentage that now can't find places in schools. By the way, the number of children born to non UK born mothers was 28% in 2016 with Polish mothers being the biggest demographic, so questioning where all these children are coming from is ludicrous.
Click to expand...
Don't suppose we'll get a source for this figure either, or any proof that one in four children born to non UK mums are the primary cause of overcrowding just because they're Polish. Or, most importantly, that those children outnumber other British born children to the extent that they're the primary cause of strain on the education system.

Robin
But if you absolutely need a source that says the word migration...
Click to expand...

Any kind of source would be an improvement over the zero that you've provided thus far.

Robin
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...n-set-miss-choice-secondary-school-today.html
Click to expand...

A Mail article? Well, I guess it's a start... now you have to tie it into the EU, so you can blame it on remainers.

Robin
and in 2016 from a government minister...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ation-migrants-british-children-a6990056.html

So I'm 'wrong'... :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

This only says EU in the headline, not in Priti Patel's words, and her claim is immediately rubbished by Migrants' Rights Networks in the article who presumably have done their own research and reached conflicting conclusions.

Given all this, why should anyone believe a word you say when you claim that:

Robin
Ironically the increase is school children is totally down to our membership of the EU and nothing else, something remainers love with a passion. Evidently they don't have children.
Click to expand...

If something is evidently true it requires incontrovertible evidence, not just the word of some politician with a leaver's axe to grind. Is that too much to ask?
 
Last edited:

Similar threads

TenEightyOne
Reddit "Include" Question
Replies
1
Views
554
Jordan
Jordan
DK
Brexit and motorsport
Replies
8
Views
1K
mustafur
mustafur
KSaiyu
The EU
2
Replies
49
Views
2K
Hun200kmh
Hun200kmh
Pebb
Honda could be axing its UK car factory in 2022
2
Replies
36
Views
3K
Scaff
Scaff
Jimbo221992
Untitled racing league, Monday night UK time.
Replies
3
Views
2K
Bowtner
Bowtner

Latest Posts

Back