Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

[Touring Mars]

EU27 ambassadors are to meet at 3pm today to discuss the Brexit deal, with many regarding this as the last possible opportunity for any possible changes to the deal to be agreed. I am not optimistic.

The EU firmly believe that the UK have not made their position clear and have branded the UK's solution(s) to the Irish border issue as "crazy". However, this doesn't chime well with the Political Declaration that states that the EU and the UK will work towards finding alternative arrangements in the future that will eventually replace the backstop should it ever come into force. The problem is, however, that the EU's repeated assertions that the backstop should never be needed ring quite hollow when they have already seemingly dismissed any possible alternative arrangements before negotiations on what these might be have even started - thus, far from being 'never needed', it makes the backstop not only unavoidable, but most likely irreplacable as well. Little wonder then that MPs are reluctant to vote in favour of legally committing the UK to the backstop in the first place.

The EU also wish to make it appear that it is the UK's uncertainty that is holding up a deal - but I would beg to differ. The UK Parliament has already made it abundantly clear that the backstop is the only obstacle between agreeing a deal and not agreeing a deal. However, the EU will not (and never have) budged an inch from the idea that the only possible solution is for Northern Ireland to remain permanently inside the Customs Unions/Single Market, whether the rest of the UK remains inside or not.

Without any movement on the backstop from the EU this evening, Theresa May's deal will most likely go down - and with it will go the last chance of a negotiated, orderly exit from the EU.

 

[Touring Mars]

Well... some very interesting comments from Michel Barnier this afternoon...



Not sure how this might play out, but it does, hopefully, look like a possible breakthrough in the Brexit impasse... unfortunately I don't have the time right now to look into it in more detail, but I'm sure it will become clearer in the very near future.

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edit: OK, so it was a false dawn...

Once again, the EU have doubled down on the idea that Northern Ireland cannot leave the Single Market. The EU have 'conceded' that Great Britain can unilaterally withdraw from the backstop.... but Northern Ireland cannot.

Ironically, all this does is reverse the only concession that the EU have ever made on the Brexit deal. The UK successfully argued that the backstop must apply to the entire UK and not just Northern Ireland. Now, instead of making a useful change to the backstop, the EU are now saying 'OK, GB can leave the backstop any time you want, but NI cannot' - which is effectively returning to the unacceptable idea that the EU started with!

What a bunch of absolute cretins.

 

[Touring Mars]

Theresa May will meet Jean-Claude Juncker in Strasbourg this evening for a last-ditch meeting to possibly secure a deal.

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EU sources have revealed that May was prepared to sign off the text of a revised deal (which gave additional assurances regarding the backstop) on Friday night but was 'overruled by London' (which is assumed to mean that the UK's Attorney General (the UK Government's chief lawyer)) advised/told her not to.

The 'Meaningful Vote' is still scheduled for tomorrow - but who knows... if May and Juncker fail to agree terms tonight, then the vote tomorrow will almost certainly be lost... if it is held at all, that is. May could delay the vote yet again, but patience with her and her negotiation strategy has all but gone, and there would very likely be moves (by both her own party and the opposition parties) to force her to resign.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Ironically, all this does is reverse the only concession that the EU have ever made on the Brexit deal. The UK successfully argued that the backstop must apply to the entire UK and not just Northern Ireland. Now, instead of making a useful change to the backstop, the EU are now saying 'OK, GB can leave the backstop any time you want, but NI cannot' - which is effectively returning to the unacceptable idea that the EU started with!

What a bunch of absolute cretins.

The EU has to act in the interest of its member states, that includes Ireland. The EU can't act in a way that allows a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. They have to follow through on that - I don't see that they have any choice.

 

[Lizard]

CGP Grey did some quick videos on Brexit which I think might help some people without confusing or boring them.

 

[Dotini]

"destroying to save is indeed sometimes necessary in war...and the justices held that no compensation was due."
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...troying-a-quote-s-history-in-order-to-save-it

 

[Touring Mars]

The EU has to act in the interest of its member states, that includes Ireland.

The EU has to act in its own interests first - but what is best for Ireland is not always what is best for the EU...

The EU can't act in a way that allows a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

.. and this is a perfect example. What is best for the EU is simple - a hard border in Ireland. But, because Ireland have ruled that out, it has become EU policy to avoid a hard border. That is not ideal for the EU... infact it is terrible for the EU, because, as has been evinced, it has made agreement on the Withdrawal deal very difficult indeed.

The upshot is, however, that no matter whether the EU or Ireland are in charge of their side of the negotiations, any outcome must not permanently damage either Ireland, the EU or the UK - and that last bit (about the UK) is what the EU seems to be struggling with.

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Meanwhile, Theresa May has arrived in Strasbourg amid rumours that a legally binding change to the backstop (in the form of a codicil that will guarantee that the UK has equal control over exiting the backstop as the EU) may be in the offing.

 

[TenEightyOne]

There is another legal option that could solve this... a new poll of the people of Northern Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement only lasts as long as there is a Unionist majority in NI.

that last bit (about the UK) is what the EU seems to be struggling with.

I agree, but while it's the main EU bigwigs who are negotiating they're negotiating on behalf of the 27 countries who've regularly felt that Britain has ****ed them over with their veto and large budgetary demands. Britain's made its bed with the other EU member states and, to quote the bible (and thence Bomber Harris) we're reaping the whirlwind.

 

[Touring Mars]

The EU and the UK Government have announced a new legally binding agreement to complement the Withdrawal Agreement.

That said, Labour have already savaged it, although frankly I don't believe that Sir Keir Starmer has a clue what he's talking about. He seems utterly focussed on the fact that the Withdrawal Agreement hasn't changed - but neglected to acknowledge that a separate agreement with equal legal force effectively changes the effect of the Withdrawal Agreement without actually having to change a word of the Withdrawal Agreement.

With some luck, it sounds like a deal tomorrow might just be possible now.

 

[Robin]

The problem is that although they are supposedly legally binding concessions the backstop is still not something the UK could get out of, at least not without the EU's agreement. Even the Attorney General's comments confirm this and that might kill the deal with MP's.

 

[Touring Mars]

The Attorney General is making two seemingly contradictory points - his published opinion is that the legal risk (of being trapped in the backstop indefinitely) has not changed, but that the new 'legally-binding' agreements announced last night do make a material change that reduce the political (and practical) risk of that ever happening. He is currently arguing that the new agreements make the current deal much more acceptable, while at the same time he has totally destroyed any chance of the deal being accepted because his opinion of the legal risks has not changed.

The AG's main point in favour of accepting the deal, which he made before the previous 'meaningful vote', seems to be that the EU have no incentive to keep the UK inside the backstop, and thus the political risk of that happening was already very low, and that these new agreements bring that risk down even further. But... I can't help but feel that there is a major flaw in his argument - and it's a point that the EU have made clear is a sizable risk. The AG is talking about the chances of the UK being permanently trapped in the Customs Union - but the EU has made it clear that Great Britain can walk away whenever it wants. What the AG seems to be neglecting is the significant risk that the Irish protocol (the 'backstop') could well be replaced by an 'alternative arrangement' that involves Northern Ireland permanently leaving the UK - a position that the EU have repeatedly made clear is their preferred (and indeed only) suggestion, short of abandoning Brexit altogether.

The other major problem appears to be the fact that any judgements made by the 'independent' arbitration panel (who would assess any formal complaint from the UK that the EU was not acting in good faith or using 'best endeavours' to ensure a way out of the Irish protocol for the UK) would ultimately be governed by the European Court of Justice. Even to a completely neutral viewer, this seems like a pretty huge issue.

 

[Robin]

In this instance I would take his published opinion over the verbal opinion because that's the one history will hold him to! I think he was just being polite when he said it mitigated the risk so as to not give the impression of doom and gloom but the bottom line appears to be that nothing really has changed. The deal was hated by MP's when it got historically voted down and it will likely also be dead in the water tonight. It gives the EU a huge amount of control which isn't exactly leaving!

 

[Touring Mars]

In this instance I would take his published opinion over the verbal opinion! I think he was just being polite when he said it mitigated the risk so as to not give the impression of doom and gloom but the bottom line appears to be that nothing really has changed. The deal was hated by MP's when it got historically voted down and it will likely also be dead in the water tonight. It gives the EU a huge amount of control which isn't exactly leaving!

Yep - it does look like it could well be the end of the road for Theresa May's deal. The ERG and the DUP will not back it, and Labour (albeit for very different reasons) look very unlikely to back it too.

Incidentally, the AG did just clarify that everything he is talking about applies to the full UK, but this is where I think the EU have always been talking at cross-purposes with the UK, and they still believe that Northern Ireland ought to be considered separately from the rest of the UK. While that remains the case, any deal will be difficult/impossible to agree.

 

[Tired Tyres]

May should have presented this as Deal or Hard out. No other choice. It is as if she doesn't want to win. One would almost believe she was a remainer!

 

[Robin]

Well she's lost the vote.

She is right in saying that an extension without another plan would not achieve anything because the EU would want know what exactly the UK seeks to do with this extra time seeing as they are very clear this was the last negotiation they would make.

Is there really going to be anything different if we go through all this back and forth with the EU again?! No deal is the most logical choice now and hopefully this hint she has given to MP's will resonate because the other option is as good as kicking the can down the road.

 

[Touring Mars]

Like Ken Clarke, I just don't understand what the Labour party think they are doing...

They support Brexit, but won't even vote in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement, even though that is essential for leaving the EU with a deal. They totally oppose leaving the EU with No Deal, however. They want a Soft Brexit, but even that requires a Withdrawal Agreement. Their central objection appears to be that they don't like the Political Declaration, even though it is incredibly vague and is not legally binding.

Brexiteers and Unionists in Northern Ireland have perhaps understandably voted against the deal, but it is the sheer weight of Labour MPs who have voted against the deal who have brought it down once again. I for one don't really understand what they think they are going to achieve other than one of two outcomes they have declared themselves to be against - No Deal, or No Brexit.

 

[Carbon_6]

 

[Novalee]

Time for the U.K. To grovel back into the EU would be my guess.Was a silly idea to begin with .

 

[baldgye]

Time for the U.K. To grovel back into the EU would be my guess.Was a silly idea to begin with .

We don’t need to, we have the power to cancel this idiotic shambles.

 

[MatskiMonk]

That went well.

 

[Dennisch]

 

[TenEightyOne]

For those who know the East coast of Yorkshire they'll know that it vanishes at an incredible rate during storms. The seaside town of Hornsea was five miles inshore a few hundred years ago. Anyway... the current Storm Gareth has taken a few chunks out so Look North sent a reporter in a cagoule to interview some locals.

"We've got to sort it out!" shouted one red-faced local. "We can't just give our land up to the sea!" he continued as waves crashed at the base of the cliff below him.

Our 16 year old turned to me and said "That's basically Brexit". I agreed, and opened another beer.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Like Ken Clarke, I just don't understand what the Labour party think they are doing...

They support Brexit, but won't even vote in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement, even though that is essential for leaving the EU with a deal. They totally oppose leaving the EU with No Deal, however. They want a Soft Brexit, but even that requires a Withdrawal Agreement. Their central objection appears to be that they don't like the Political Declaration, even though it is incredibly vague and is not legally binding.

Brexiteers and Unionists in Northern Ireland have perhaps understandably voted against the deal, but it is the sheer weight of Labour MPs who have voted against the deal who have brought it down once again. I for one don't really understand what they think they are going to achieve other than one of two outcomes they have declared themselves to be against - No Deal, or No Brexit.

They want to win a general election and to hell with the hard brexit as a result of what they are doing. Fiddling while Rome Burns indeed. 👎

 

[TenEightyOne]

Like Ken Clarke, I just don't understand what the Labour party think they are doing...

Struggling around three strong, disagreeing centre-points. The leader is pro-Brexit, or anti-EU depending on which end of history you look at it from and can't bring himself to push any firm action that deflects his party from that view or his own bottom from the front bench.

Same with May, really. I've never seen a parliament so hung for so long. The ball's under the scrummage somewhere but nobody wants to break it loose. Meanwhile Boris has had its hair cut, lost some weight and has stopped telling jokes, Mrs. Ten tells me that this is a sure sign he's angling for a serious leadership bid under the nose of Prefect Mogg.

EDIT: And meanwhile it's the DUP - THE DUP! - who are getting a disproportionate amount of screen time. They hold the future of any backstop agreement (and any Conservative government) in their untaxed Transit.

 

[Liquid]

EDIT: And meanwhile it's the DUP - THE DUP! - who are getting a disproportionate amount of screen time. They hold the future of any backstop agreement (and any Conservative government) in their untaxed Transit.

And Arlene Foster is touted as the "leader" of Northern Ireland as though she has any say on the future of the country. Although she was, she simply isn't now but is still treated as such in the media.

Omnishambles.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I thought it couldn't get any worse, but it has. There is now a new word doing the rounds.

Brextension.

 

[UKMikey]

I thought it couldn't get any worse, but it has. There is now a new word doing the rounds.

Brextension.

"Brexcruxiating" can't be far behind.

 

[baldgye]

No Deal was always the goal...

Language warning

Spoiler

 

[Robin]

Most imports tariff-free under no-deal plan

The government has announced that most imports into the UK would not attract a tariff in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-47551266

No complaining about price rises then. If anything there might be a drop in prices of non EU goods balancing everything out.

 

[Tired Tyres]

No Deal was always the goal...

Language warning

Spoiler

That is because that is the only way to leave. You are in the club or you are out of it. A deal leaves us one foot in, one foot out, but still having to pay the entrance fee.

29th we leave with no deal.

Unless 650 spineless wonders grow a backbone and vote to retract Article 50.