Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

[Touring Mars]

The Government are to ask the Queen today to suspend Parliament from mid-September until October 14th...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

Expect fireworks.

 

[baldgye]

The Government are to ask the Queen today to suspend Parliament from mid-September until October 14th...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

Expect fireworks.

The end is coming

 

[Touring Mars]

It is not without a great deal of irony that this could be the UK's only chance of leaving the EU with a respectable deal... but, paradoxically (not to mention obviously) it also raises the stakes enormously for both the UK and the EU by effectively robbing Parliament of the opportunity to block No Deal.

In the absolute clustershambles that has been Brexit thus far, no-one has covered themselves in glory - and, as is painfully apparently, everyone involved thus far has singularly failed to deliver anything that the UK Parliament can possibly accept. This is the end result.

Perhaps I am being overly generous to Johnson when I say that at least his (very high risk) strategy makes some sense - it is sad and ironic that the UK's previous approach (one of bending over backwards to accommodate the EU as far as possible - and indeed, far beyond what was ever possible for the UK) has been such a failure, and the EU have not helped matters at all by steadfastly refusing to re-open talks. They will now.

 

[MatskiMonk]

I wonder what Lizzie's going to do. I think I'm right in saying this would be her first action that clear demonstrates her stance on leaving the EU?

 

[baldgye]

We edge closer to the brink.
No matter what your political opinions on the EU and the government, no deal can give us a better position than we had and ‘no-deal’ would do massive economic harm.

Some of the damage has already been done, but all I can do now is hope that this madness is halted before the damage is irreversible.

I wonder what Lizzie's going to do.

Nothing.
Even as an admirer of the Queen, she has no power to do anything but accept the PM’s request. Asking her is a formality and if she or any other monarch decided to try and act on what little theoretical power they have, they’d be the last monarch.

Our royal family are basically diplomatic tourist attractions who’s links to government are for ceremony and histories sake.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Asking her is a formality and if she or any other monarch decided to try and act on what little theoretical power they have, they’d be the last monarch.

Apparently this parliamentary shut down wouldn't be unseasonal - she could just go with it, so I do think that's probably quite likely... but I do wonder about the notion that if they exercised any power, they'd lose it - I suspect it's just not that easy. Would be an interesting vote though... especially if she decided not to pass the bill

 

[Touring Mars]

No matter what your political opinions on the EU and the government, no deal can give us a better position than we had

I assume you meant 'cannot'...

I would agree that we already had the best possible deal with the EU, but with a major proviso - that 'deal' required us to be members of the EU.

It goes without saying that we will not have as good an arrangement with the EU once we are out, but it is (very) unlikely to be a fatal blow for the UK... the EU, on the other hand...

 

[baldgye]

I assume you meant 'cannot'...

I would agree that we already had the best possible deal with the EU, but with a major proviso - that 'deal' required us to be members of the EU.

It goes without saying that we will not have as good an arrangement with the EU once we are out, but it is (very) unlikely to be a fatal blow for the UK... the EU, on the other hand...

Nah, we had the best possible 'deal' we could have had prior to the vote. Soon as 'we' voted to leave we destroyed any chance of our stance improving.
I don't see a problem with being a part of the EU, the personal freedoms and opportunities it gives tens of millions of people is immeasurable and having that freedom taken away by the greed of the elite is very hard to deal with.

It goes without saying that we will not have as good an arrangement with the EU once we are out, but it is (very) unlikely to be a fatal blow for the UK... the EU, on the other hand...

I don't agree with your notion that the EU fails without the UK. But the UK economy will be hit massively by no-deal. Our own pro-brexit government has highlighted food and medicine shortages... and that's just what was leaked.

We are a service based economy based around the finance sector, we cannot exist as we do now, without the EU. And up-heaving that will leave many many people unemployed and forced to find work elsewhere.

 

[baldgye]

 

[Touring Mars]

@baldgye Sorry, I misinterpreted your post...

When you said "no deal can give us a better position than we had" I read 'no deal' as 'No Deal'... but I see what you mean.

You are, of course, correct - there is no Brexit deal that can give us a better position than we had - and that's why a Brexit deal is all but pointless.

"No Deal", on the other hand, could potentially bring massive benefits... BUT, it will also come at a great cost.

I don't agree with your notion that the EU fails without the UK.

Brexit will almost certainly not lead directly to the collapse of the EU... but Brexit itself is symptomatic of the underlying problem(s) with the EU that, unless they are properly addressed, will likely lead to more exits, and the destruction of the Euro/Eurozone as it stands today.

 

[baldgye]

"No Deal", on the other hand, could potentially bring massive benefits... BUT, it will also come at a great cost.

Benefits that not even pro-brexit pro-no-deal politicians have been able to communicate or figure out

 

[Touring Mars]

Benefits that not even pro-brexit pro-no-deal politicians have been able to communicate or figure out

One man's benefit is another man's cost. Being out of the EU is a (massive) "benefit" to millions of people in itself... not to you or I though. However I will concede that there are aspects of leaving the EU that at least appear attractive, even if they will, in reality, make little to no positive difference to our country (a new immigration system, ending the jurisdiction of the ECJ etc.)

But it's not only the costs that I'm concerned about - but our future ability to mitigate them. This, however, creates something of a paradox. In the circumstances where the UK will need all the leverage and power that it can muster, it makes no sense at all to agree to a deal that is designed to make us permanently less competitive than the EU. Thus, if the UK is to leave the EU, then we have no choice but to pursue policies that capitalise on our new status as non-members of the EU. The biggest single benefit (that I can see anyway) will be liberalisation of trade with the rest of the world, which would not be possible in a 'soft Brexit' arrangement.

 

[baldgye]

One man's benefit is another man's cost. Being out of the EU is a (massive) "benefit" to millions of people in itself... not to you or I though. However I will concede that there are aspects of leaving the EU that at least appear attractive, even if they will, in reality, make little to no positive difference to our country (a new immigration system, ending the jurisdiction of the ECJ etc.)

But it's not only the costs that I'm concerned about - but our future ability to mitigate them. This, however, creates something of a paradox. In the circumstances where the UK will need all the leverage and power that it can muster, it makes no sense at all to agree to a deal that is designed to make us permanently less competitive than the EU. Thus, if the UK is to leave the EU, then we have no choice but to pursue policies that capitalise on our new status as non-members of the EU. The biggest single benefit (that I can see anyway) will be liberalisation of trade with the rest of the world, which would not be possible in a 'soft Brexit' arrangement.

That is the only benefit and even that is barely reason.
Because yeah, in theory we could trade with more people and get new deals. But in reality we'd then be competing against the EU for deals and other nations, not only that but our own deals would carry less muster and power than when we had the backing and support of the EU.

We can't afford the infrastructure to police our boarders the cost is in the billions, money we don't have. no-deal would make immigration 'worse' because it would be far FAR easier to illegal immigration but not only the government has already relaxed non-eu migration rules in order to fill positions eu migrants are no longer filling.

Leaving the EU makes immigration 'worse' not better and the idea that we can then strike out new better deals is a fantasy. We'll be economically and politically weaker, yet somehow broker better deals?


A deal, means we land at the bottom of the well on a pillow, but we're still stuck. No-deal gives us full impact, breaking bones and leaving us stuck. I know which I'd rather have

 

[baldgye]

Commons Speaker John Bercow said "it is blindingly obvious that the purpose of prorogation now would be to stop Parliament debating Brexit and performing its duty in shaping a course for the country", calling it a "constitutional outrage".

He claims he has has "no contact from the government" and adds: “Shutting down Parliament would be an offence against the democratic process and the rights of parliamentarians as the people’s elected representatives.

“Surely at this early stage in his premiership, the prime minister should be seeking to establish rather than undermine his democratic credentials and indeed his commitment to Parliamentary democracy."

https://news.sky.com/story/parliament-suspension-pm-behaving-like-tin-pot-dictator-11795990

 

[Daz555]

Possible timeline.

1. Queen agrees to Johnson's request to suspend parliament from 10th Sept to 14th October
2. Parliament returns from summer recess on 2nd Sept.
3. Parliament votes to cancel the planned recess between 13th Sept to 8th October (conference season).
4. Sometime between 2nd Sept to 10th Sept there is a vote of no confidence and the government loses.

If the government wins VONC and Parliament remains suspended in the run up to Brexit then we will see strikes, direct action and civil disobedience.

 

[baldgye]

One person is happy;



...

 

[MatskiMonk]

Just received an e-mail from HMRC allowing for transitional import procedures.

Important update on your Brexit preparations

The Government has said that the UK will be leaving the EU on 31 Oc‌t‌ob‌er whatever the circumstances.

As I understand it, paperwork and duty payments can be delayed - I assume - until after goods have been released from customs. This would presumably reduce the physical burden at points of entry. I mean, I'm glad they're not leaving this advice until 5 months after we were supposed to leave or anything...

 

[TenEightyOne]

The good thing about Brexit, as everybody knows, is that control of every aspect of the future of our great, noble country is placed firmly in the hands of our elected representatives.

Well, some of the time.

 

[Touring Mars]

The question is, is Johnson using the prorogation of Parliament as a way of provoking his opponents (esp. those in his own party) from forcing his hand, thus forcing him to call an election and setting himself up as the pro-Brexit 'man of the people'?

 

[eran0004]

What the EU have singularly failed to understand about the backstop is that the UK and Ireland already have a solemn agreement to never install a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland

Does that agreement bind the UK to remain in the EU or Ireland to leave the EU in case a trade deal between the UK and the EU can’t be made?

If not, it’s a worthless agreement.

 

[baldgye]

The question is, is Johnson using the prorogation of Parliament as a way of provoking his opponents (esp. those in his own party) from forcing his hand, thus forcing him to call an election and setting himself up as the pro-Brexit 'man of the people'?

Not much of a question

 

[MatskiMonk]

The question is, is Johnson using the prorogation of Parliament as a way of provoking his opponents (esp. those in his own party) from forcing his hand, thus forcing him to call an election and setting himself up as the pro-Brexit 'man of the people'?

In practice, what does this achieve for him. He had the biggest mandate by far in his party, the party are already incumbent and the party pushing for Brexit, which was "the will of the people". Trying to increase her mandate in a similar fashion did May no favours, wht would Bozza really gain?

 

[Dotini]

We are a service based economy based around the finance sector

If this is factual, is it fair to say that the highest functional purpose of the UK is to be a service economy based around the finance sector?

The good thing about Brexit, as everybody knows, is that control of every aspect of the future of our great, noble country is placed firmly in the hands of our elected representatives.

Is it factual that the UK is great and noble? Upon Brexit, would it cease to be great and noble? What is it that makes a nation, a people, great and noble?

 

[TenEightyOne]

If this is factual, is it fair to say that the highest functional purpose of the UK is to be a service economy based around the finance sector?

Purpose suggests a pre-determined reason for existence, so no.

Is it factual that the UK is great and noble?

Subjective, so not factual.

What is it that makes a nation, a people, great and noble?

That's a huge discussion in its own right - my comment was really a sarcastic throwaway. This doesn't quite feel like the time for the full discussion.

 

[Dotini]

That's a huge discussion in its own right - my comment was really a sarcastic throwaway. This doesn't quite feel like the time for the full discussion.

When your nation and people are facing an existential crisis, is it not the time to ask the deepest, most important questions?

 

[Touring Mars]

In practice, what does this achieve for him. He had the biggest mandate by far in his party, the party are already incumbent and the party pushing for Brexit, which was "the will of the people". Trying to increase her mandate in a similar fashion did May no favours, wht would Bozza really gain?

It's not so much about what Johnson will gain as opposed to what he might avoid losing.

Does that agreement bind the UK to remain in the EU or Ireland to leave the EU in case a trade deal between the UK and the EU can’t be made?

If not, it’s a worthless agreement.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is a succinct summary of the problem in understanding the Irish border situation.

Branding the Good Friday Agreement 'worthless' unless it satisfies the EU is truly breath-taking - and emphatically wrong.

The Good Friday Agreement compels the UK and Ireland to maintain peaceful relations above all other considerations. Frankly, attempting to use it to compel the UK into remaining inside the EU's legal orbit (or as a justification for kicking Ireland out of it) is absolutely reprehensible.


-

Meanwhile, hard Brexiteer Peter Bone claims that the prorogation of Parliament 'has nothing to do with Brexit'... Give us a break!

 

[baldgye]

Give us a break!

no.. wait, thats what we want to avoid!

 

[MatskiMonk]

What is it that makes a nation, a people, great and noble?

Not having succumbed to lies, manipulation and hate-mongering would have been a good start.

 

[Dotini]

Not having succumbed to lies, manipulation and hate-mongering would have been a good start.

A house divided against itself cannot stand.

 

[baldgye]

A house divided against itself cannot stand.

Houses with subsidence can still stand