He arrived nothing on his begging tour. Germany and France send him back home with a NO.
Wrong.
For the first time, the leaders of both France and Germany, by far the most significant and most influential leaders in the EU27, have suggested a possible way to break the impasse.
The impasse, in case anyone doesn't know, has been caused by the presence and the nature of the 'backstop', which has been rightly rejected repeatedly by the UK because it legally commits the UK to remaining inside the EU's legal orbit indefinitely without an exit mechanism that the UK can enact democratically. The EU, however, will not allow any negotiations on trade etc. until after the backstop has been agreed - ergo, No Deal. Right?
Well... the way to block the impasse is now becoming clear, and that is to formally agree that the UK has already satisfied the requirement to provide 'alternative arrangements' before the Withdrawal Agreement is signed, thus the backstop, while technically still in force, is rendered moot. A legally binding codicil could be added to the Political Declaration to this effect, meaning that the UK can now safely sign the Withdrawal Agreement with no possibility of being permanently trapped in the EU's legal orbit with no way of exiting.
If a timetable can be agreed (e.g. the end of 2021), then the interim period would simply be a 'transition period' where the whole of the UK stays in the Single Market until the formal handover date (which could even be extended by mutual agreement), after which the UK leaves. That gives the UK over a year to put into place alternative arrangements for the Irish border. Both Ireland and the UK can work on this together, as should have been agreed on Day 1...
To my great frustration and annoyance, Michel Barnier himself has already voiced this very idea to Ireland, but when the UK has (repeatedly) asked for it, we've been completely ignored. To add insult to injury, they then have the audacity to instruct us to 'tell them what we want'. The answer has been staring them in the face for years, but it is only now that they are staring down the barrel of the UK actually walking away that we're starting to see some common sense.
What the EU have singularly failed to understand about the backstop is that the UK and Ireland already have a solemn agreement to never install a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland - the EU are the only ones talking about requiring a hard border, but it is never going to happen. So long as that is the case, the EU's legal straitjacket which is the backstop is not only not required, it only ever served the purpose of frustrating the UK's exit. But their gamble - that the UK would sooner overturn the referendum result than walk away with no deal - has failed.
With some luck, common sense will prevail, but I still doubt that will happen. Fortunately, although No Deal will be costly in the short term for all involved, the permanent outcome will almost certainly look very like what I've just described above, which is a borderless Ireland with the UK and Ireland using new methods approved by the EU to ensure that cross-border trade is correctly monitored, and protects the integrity of both the UK's own internal market and the EU's single market.
It is finally starting to dawn on the EU that, when it comes to how Ireland and the UK can co-exist without a hard border while one remains an EU member while the other does not, it is not a question of whether or not it happens, it is only a question of
how it happens.