Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

Deal or No Deal?

  • Voted Leave - May's Deal

  • Voted Leave - No Deal

  • Voted Leave - Second Referendum

  • Did not vote/abstained - May's Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - No Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - Second Referendum

  • Voted Remain - May's Deal

  • Voted Remain - No Deal

  • Voted Remain - Second Referendum

Results are only viewable after voting.
TenEightyOne
Whether or not the checks take place at the geographically-exact border is irrelevant, customs posts in the vague area of the border (even 20, 30 miles away) constitute a hard border and a target. This isn't a paper exercise, this is flesh-and-blood people with families being sent into the heart of the biggest affront to the Peace Process in recent memory.
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I could believe that if not for the fact that these 'targets' would be practically every business in Ireland and every port In Ireland (that already conducts customs checks)... the term 'self-defeating' springs to mind. Given that the vast majority of essential physical checks could be carried out at ports where checks already take place, and the vast majority of other requirements can be fulfilled without physical checks, it's not clear how or why some additional checks in a border zone would not work, esp. if it was to ensure that Ireland could essentially remain as a single common travel area.

A key point about the Withdrawal Agreement is that it could guarantee no hard border in Ireland and no new customs checkpoints (just new checks at existing checkpoints i.e. ports/airports), and new procedures at places of business) - crucially it would also allow for a transition period to allow the dust to settle on what would essentially be indistinguishable from the EU's own NI-only backstop, while also providing the time necessary to allow for a border poll that could see NI formally accept the 'backstop' and stay in the CU permanently. The UK Government will never agree to simply sign away control over NI in advance of a future deal that may never happen, but the UK Government would respect the outcome of a referendum in NI - in other words, if the people of NI vote to effectively leave the UK, then that is what would happen and the problem (if it turns out there is one) would be solved.

If NI voted to remain in the UK and leave the CU, however, then the onus would be on the EU and the UK to agree a deal that removed tariffs and saw cross-border co-operation on customs checks (UK checks at Irish ports, EU checks at UK/NI ports) and the vast majority of the potential problems would be solved.
 
Touring Mars
You seem to have missed the bit about customs checks not being at the border.
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No, that kind of customs checks are properly accounted for in the department of fictional works. Nobody has presented a viable plan for how it would work.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/pol...physical-border-checks-after-brexit-1.3569485
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At best it’s an intent. As long as nobody knows how to do it, it won’t be done. The article is also more than a year old.
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Except that making their plans public would undermine their whole strategy...
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If they found a solution to the border issue I think they would be more than happy to present it. Especially since it means that a deal would be very likely, which would be beneficial to Ireland’s economy, the UK’s economy and EU’s economy. Nobody has anything to gain from a no deal Brexit.

They are probably not revealing their plan because it involves a hard border, and as such it would not be very popular.

In any case, the fact is that Ireland and the EU must have a plan of some sort because customs checks will be required on Day 1 after a No Deal Brexit... and if those customs checks don't happen in Ireland, they will happen on the continent - and all goods going to or from Ireland will be considered equivalent to UK goods.
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Of course, but a plan of some sort is not the same thing as a plan for an open border.

I strongly suspect that the major element of the EU/Ireland's 'No deal' plan is to offer the UK a transition period as per that already proposed in the existing Withdrawal Agreement, whereby the UK stays inside the CU temporarily until 'alternative arrangements' are put in place. The UK and EU will continue to trade under GATT 24 (the WTO clause that would allow for existing arrangements on trade to be kept in place for up to 10 years while a trade deal is completed) in return for UK compliance on customs alignment.
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Perhaps, provided that WTO accepts the premise that the UK would want a customs union with the EU.
 
eran0004
The article is also more than a year old.
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So?
eran0004
They are probably not revealing their plan because it involves a hard border, and as such it would not be very popular.
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There will be no hard border in Ireland. Period.

The reason the EU are not making the precise details of their No Deal plans public is because they help make the case for Brexit, which they want to avoid - but the article I cited proves that the EU have told the Irish Taoiseach that any new customs checks that may be necessary after Brexit (deal or no deal) will not require a hard border.

So unless you are calling the Irish Taoiseach a liar, then the EU have given him assurances that a hard border in Ireland is not going to be needed even in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

So my question is, and has been for some time, if no hard border is necessary, and the EU have ruled it out, the Irish have ruled it out, the Northern Irish have ruled it out and the UK have ruled it out, how on Earth is there going to be one and who will install it??
 
TenEightyOne
I suspect you're wrong but I hope you're right.
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So long as the Irish Government and the UK Government agree on no hard border, I can't see how it can possibly happen...

TenEightyOne
The Irish Times think he's been telling porkie pies so. The EU's chief spokesman says it's "obvious" that there'll be a hard border with No Deal.
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It is possible that the EU may not accept anything less than what would effectively be a hard border in Ireland, but that would put them firmly at odds with the Good Friday Agreement, as well as with both Ireland and the UK. But, that article also points out:

Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar said: "Regardless of Brexit, the British government will always have responsibilities as co-guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement to ensure that, even in a no deal, there will not be a return to a border."
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It is, of course, also the responsibility of the Irish government to avoid a hard border - and thus, if the EU insist on one but Ireland will not allow one on the island of Ireland, then logically the hard border would need to be elsewhere. And if the UK refuse to install a hard border between NI and the rest of the UK, then that hard border would need to be between Ireland and the rest of the EU.

I don't think it will come to that though - I strongly suspect that the EU and Ireland will come to an arrangement whereby Ireland stays in the Single Market and there is no hard border in Ireland... but it will rely on the co-operation of the UK and a compromise on new customs checks between NI and the rest of the UK... which is precisely what Johnson has already suggested.

But indeed, your guess is as good as mine...
 
Leo Varadkar has met Boris Johnson today and said that he is 'now convinced' that both sides want an agreement and that he can see a 'pathway' to a deal. He also made it clear that he could not spell out the details because of the 'sensitivity' of the issue.

I may have said this before, but I'm getting a feeling that Johnson is actually secretly trying to find a way to allow NI to effectively leave the UK without destroying his own party, and couching the whole thing in terms of 'let the people of NI decide'. The danger for Ireland and the EU is that such a vote, if it were to be held, would result in the wrong result i.e. NI voted to leave the Single Market in favour of staying in the UK, in which case the whole plan would collapse and the EU would not sanction it in the first place.

I reckon Johnson has probably told Varadkar that he foresees a long-term view of Ireland effectively unifying, and that if he plays the game now (and persuades the EU to sign off on a backstop-free deal for the rest of the UK), then Johnson will allow the necessary referendum(s) that will ultimately see NI calve off slowly from the UK. The 'transition period' (up to 2025) would keep NI in a 'best of both worlds' scenario, but the default would be that if there is no trade deal or no referendum, NI would stay inside the CU indefinitely anyway.

They may even agree to hold a referendum in NI on Single Market membership ASAP (which would be early next year) such that the consent of NI to remain under EU jurisdiction is given long before the transition period ends, and then all is done and dusted... it would seem likely that the people of NI would vote for that if it also meant keeping their UK passports and also keep trade links with the UK (e.g. NI businesses would get a rebate if UK tariffs on non-EU goods were cheaper etc.), possibly in return for a (very) favourable trade deal.

Watch this space, but the mood music has certainly changed - Varadkar says that the UK and Ireland will both go to the European Commission tomorrow to resume talks, when just hours ago it was announced that tomorrow could have seen the formal closure of Brexit negotiations...
 
Touring Mars
Leo Varadkar has met Boris Johnson today and said that he is 'now convinced' that both sides want an agreement and that he can see a 'pathway' to a deal. He also made it clear that he could not spell out the details because of the 'sensitivity' of the issue.

I may have said this before, but I'm getting a feeling that Johnson is actually secretly trying to find a way to allow NI to effectively leave the UK without destroying his own party, and couching the whole thing in terms of 'let the people of NI decide'. The danger for Ireland and the EU is that such a vote, if it were to be held, would result in the wrong result i.e. NI voted to leave the Single Market in favour of staying in the UK, in which case the whole plan would collapse and the EU would not sanction it in the first place.

I reckon Johnson has probably told Varadkar that he foresees a long-term view of Ireland effectively unifying, and that if he plays the game now (and persuades the EU to sign off on a backstop-free deal for the rest of the UK), then Johnson will allow the necessary referendum(s) that will ultimately see NI calve off slowly from the UK. The 'transition period' (up to 2025) would keep NI in a 'best of both worlds' scenario, but the default would be that if there is no trade deal or no referendum, NI would stay inside the CU indefinitely anyway.

They may even agree to hold a referendum in NI on Single Market membership ASAP (which would be early next year) such that the consent of NI to remain under EU jurisdiction is given long before the transition period ends, and then all is done and dusted... it would seem likely that the people of NI would vote for that if it also meant keeping their UK passports and also keep trade links with the UK (e.g. NI businesses would get a rebate if UK tariffs on non-EU goods were cheaper etc.), possibly in return for a (very) favourable trade deal.

Watch this space, but the mood music has certainly changed - Varadkar says that the UK and Ireland will both go to the European Commission tomorrow to resume talks, when just hours ago it was announced that tomorrow could have seen the formal closure of Brexit negotiations...
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So effectively NI are being given a chance at independence, presuming that their parliament will return to their assembly? If that's the case then it's perfectly plausible that Scotland, unencumbered as they are by a GFA, may choose Indyref2. Johnson won't just be the least successful Prime Minister in history (signigicantly losing a majority, losing his first five major votes, being found to have misled the Queen) but he'll also be the architect of a Dissolution of Union?
 
Actually what is going on with the NI Assembly right now? It keeled over getting on for three years ago now and, despite dire warnings about the resumption of paramilitary violence on both sides, I've not heard a peep about it resuming.
 
Ever heard of "cash for ash"?

Sinn Fein and the DUP (the parties which got the most Stormont seats for the nationalist and unionist communities respectively) have been given a deadline of 21 October to finalise a power-sharing agreement, otherwise the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc.) Act 2019 kicks in, which would bring abortion and marriage into line with the rest of the UK. Last time I checked, the DUP were refusing to accept SF's request for Irish language recognition.
 
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DK
Ever heard of "cash for ash"?
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I have indeed - that's what precipitated the falling over back in... early 2017, I think. I've just not heard much about what's happened since then - there were all sorts of alarmist headlines about the suspension of the Assembly (and the role of the UK Government's Northern Ireland secretary) and what it might mean for the resumption of paramilitary activity, but it doesn't seem to have happened yet and I've not heard anything about the Assembly reconvening.
DK
Sinn Fein and the DUP (the parties which got the most Stormont seats for the nationalist and unionist communities respectively) have been given a deadline of 21 October to finalise a power-sharing agreement, otherwise the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc.) Act 2019 kicks in, which would bring abortion and marriage into line with the rest of the UK. Last time I checked, the DUP were refusing to accept SF's request for Irish language recognition.
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Stuff like the marginalisation of Irish communities, culture and language among the minority - but significant minority - Irish in Northern Ireland is literally part of the fuel of The Troubles. While reiterating the concept that one should not give in to terrorism or threats of terrorism, nor construct government policy around what terrorists might do, it's pretty much straight moronic - especially given that the Irish language in Northern Ireland is officially recognised in the Good Friday Agreement - to deny it recognition.

By "recognition" do you mean something more akin to parity status or official language status - bilingual road signs, court and parliament documentation in both languages, and so on?

And the DUP would rather give up a religious belief (that it shared with its neighbours until pretty recently) about unborn children than put Gaelic on road signs?
 
I reckon it is all but certain that Johnson has, with or without the DUP's blessing' agreed to the NI-only backstop.

The EU27 have agreed to move Brexit negotiations into the "tunnel" (or 'final' phase) which the EU has effectively ruled out until the UK shifted its position. I can't see what other event could possibly have happened to trigger this turnaround.

Without the DUP's blessing, however, the hard Brexiteer wing (ERG) of the Tory party could well refuse to support the deal - but with DUP support, it could well be enough to convince not only the ERG, but also opponents of a No Deal Brexit from the Labour party, which could be enough to get the deal over the line in what could be a pivotal vote next Saturday.
 
The problem of the 500,000 Irish citizens born and living in NI remains even if the soft/hard border issue is resolved. They will continue to be entitled to the same rights as any other EU citizen which could conflict with any laws introduced by the UK that differ to EU laws.

Famine
the resumption of paramilitary activity, but it doesn't seem to have happened yet and I've not heard anything about the Assembly reconvening.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Real_Irish_Republican_Army_actions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Continuity_IRA_actions Paramilitary activity never went away completely. Security forces are still regularly targeted. Fearing an upsurge of violence is warranted even if it hasn't materialised yet.

Famine
By "recognition" do you mean something more akin to parity status or official language status - bilingual road signs, court and parliament documentation in both languages, and so on?
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https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-language-act-explainer-3851417-Feb2018/

"The specific stumbling block in Northern Ireland surrounds the introduction of an Irish language Act (Acht na Gaeilge) which would give Irish equal status with English.

On the broader language issue, Sinn Féin supports the restoration of Irish as the spoken language of the majority of people in Ireland.

The specific stumbling block in Northern Ireland surrounds the introduction of an Irish language Act (Acht na Gaeilge) which would give Irish equal status with English.

The party is seeking legislation which would allow for:

  • The use of Irish in courts, in the Assembly and for use by state bodies including the police
  • The appointment of an Irish language commissioner
  • The establishment of designated Gaelteacht areas in the North
  • The right for education through Irish
  • Bilingual signage on public buildings and road signage"

Famine
And the DUP would rather give up a religious belief (that it shared with its neighbours until pretty recently) about unborn children than put Gaelic on road signs?
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Unbelievable, isn't it. Political pettiness in NI is in a different league. I should add that nationalist politicians are often no better.
 
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Multiple sources are now reporting that a new deal has been reached between the UK and the EU...

The EU summit started this morning and it is widely expected that the EU27 may be able to provisionally agree the deal today or tomorrow before a crunch 'indicative' vote on Saturday (the UK deadline for requesting an extension to Article 50) to see whether there is enough support for the new deal, which depends on a) the DUP (Northern Irish Unionists) b) the ERG (the Tory eurosceptics) and, crucially c) Labour rebels.

My guess is that the full text will not be ready in time for a formal 'meaningful vote' to happen on Saturday, but that the UK and the EU will, as part of this new agreement, agree to a very short (2-4 weeks) 'technical extension' to allow for ratification of the new treaty in the EU and then the UK.

Of course, if the UK Parliament votes down this deal, then my guess is that it will be all over for any chance of a deal (hence why Labour rebels will probably go for it), as that would mean a General Election followed by a No Deal Brexit.

If a substantial number of Labour MPs vote in favour of the deal - against the wishes of Jeremy Corbyn - and it goes through, I reckon Corbyn will have to resign as Labour leader. To be fair to him, he is not going to whip (force) Labour MPs to vote against the deal as 'that is not his style of leadership', but nevertheless I think his time as Labour leader will be pretty much over if Labour MPs help to pass the Brexit deal over the coming days.

-





edit: The DUP have confirmed that they do not support the deal...
 
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Famine
Actually what is going on with the NI Assembly right now? It keeled over getting on for three years ago now and, despite dire warnings about the resumption of paramilitary violence on both sides, I've not heard a peep about it resuming.
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The murder of a journalist wasn't enough to stir the MLAs off their fat, still-getting-paid arses but proposed legislation bringing Northern Ireland in line with the rest of the UK, as the DUP keep saying they want, is making them lose their minds and want Stormont back in action.

(It's equal marriage again)
 
Hmmm, I suppose it all hangs on whether Labour MP's are in support of the deal or not, moreso than the likes of the DUP.

Is their suggestion that parliament won't actually get a vote on it though?

 
MatskiMonk
Is their suggestion that parliament won't actually get a vote on it though?
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The vast majority of the 'new deal' is exactly the same as May's deal - the only substantive change is the protocol of NI. MPs do need to be able to properly scrutinise the deal prior to ratification, but as far as I understand it, the vote on Saturday is not the same as ratifying the deal and thus there will be plenty of time for MPs to study the deal before ratification.

The revisions to the Withdrawal Agreement have now been published:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sit...g_protocol_on_ireland_and_nothern_ireland.pdf
 
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Touring Mars
The vast majority of the 'new deal' is exactly the same as May's deal - the only substantive change is the protocol of NI. MPs do need to be able to properly scrutinise the deal prior to ratification, but as far as I understand it, the vote on Saturday is not the same as ratifying the deal and thus there will be plenty of time for MPs to study the deal before ratification.
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I could really see an MP's vote go either way, to be honest.

___


So Farage is calling for an extension and a general election over the deal. Last ditch grab at getting some power before his political career fades into irrelevance, perhaps?
 
MatskiMonk
I could really see an MP's vote go either way, to be honest.

___


So Farage is calling for an extension and a general election over the deal. Last ditch grab at getting some power before his political career fades into irrelevance, perhaps?
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I mean he's basically a Metapod where Harden is replaced by what you describe above so, makes sense.

I guess he deserves a little credit for managing to dodge redundancy as many times as he has. Still a nobber though.
 
Tired Tyres
Really? I can only see them voting against it.
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Me too.

That said, I reckon both the UK and the EU really have made very significant concessions to get this deal to where it is...

The UK have conceded on the Irish sea border - really, it is the only way that Brexit can happen in any meaningful form. The EU have also effectively conceded that an indefinite backstop that traps NI or the whole UK inside the CU/SM is not going to happen, and thus the new deal is, in effect, a time limited backstop that has a democratic exit mechanism that gives the people of NI the final say.

And yet - the DUP are against it because it doesn't give them a veto... in my opinion that's their tough titty. Also, the blatant hypocrisy of the DUP insisting on being 'no different' to the rest of the UK is (and always has been) hard to swallow (I was going to say hard to believe, but it is all too easy to believe considering who they are).

Alas, I reckon Johnson's moment of reckoning is coming soon... the fact is that it is still unlikely that Parliament will pass the deal, and that will leave the Tories (and Johnson) as a busted flush. The Benn Act will mean that there's another extension, but that extension will only be approved if the UK formally commits to a General Election or Second Referendum... my guess is the former, but with the two major parties in total disarray, we could be dangerously close to a Brexit party-led government.
 
Junker says there is no need for an extension now a deal is agreed...

... and is also caught off guard by Johnsons incredible 'strength-of-ten-Etonians' grip...

f1750a98-fce8-4bd2-a674-788590f72d6d.jpg
 
Touring Mars
dangerously close to a Brexit party-led government.
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Once again, allowing the same government to continuously fail over and over but not challenge them in an election you know you're going to lose is ridiculous. It's a complete, total and unequivocal impasse.

I still maintain that the only two workable solutions are for the United Kingdom to remain or for Great Britain to give up Northern Ireland.
 
MatskiMonk
Junker says there is no need for an extension now a deal is agreed...
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Well, there you go... I was wondering what Johnson's trump card was going to be, and there it is.

The EU will not grant an extension, so the Benn Act has just been blown out of the water, as has Labour's entire Brexit strategy. You could say that they have just been Junckered.

While no extension does not rule out revoking Article 50, it does rule out any other possible deal - and that means Labour's plans are sunk.

As such, Labour MPs who were set to vote against the deal now have a tough choice between three options, all of which they have pledged to oppose.
 
Touring Mars
Well, there you go... I was wondering what Johnson's trump card was going to be, and there it is.

The EU will not grant an extension,
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I don't think he's ruled it out in all cases, I took it that he believes it's not required because the deal has been agreed and he believes Johnson can get it through parliament. When/if that goes wrong, there's no longer a deal, and the statement "We have a deal so why should we have a prolongation" becomes irrelevant.
 

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