Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

[Touring Mars]

The EU isn't denying the UK that right.

By not allowing NI to leave the Customs Unions, the EU is denying the UK (or at least part of it) its right to leave.

As I said, so long as NI is part of the UK, and the UK has a right to leave the EU (both are the case right now), then NI has a right to leave... but the EU's position is clear - they will not consider any deal that does not keep Northern Ireland permanently inside the EU. This, above all other considerations, is the reason why No Deal is now being seriously considered by the UK Government, not to mention an increasingly frustrated UK public.

My point is that the EU literally does not have any right to insist upon this, while the UK actually has a legal right to pull NI out of the Customs Union if it chooses to do so, and it has.

Therefore, the question ought not to be 'how do we stop them from doing it?', but 'how do we make it work?' - but if they continue to gamble on the former only to find out that they can't stop it, then they will very quickly come to regret spurning so many opportunities to negotiate an alternative outcome that will be far, far preferable to a No Deal exit for Ireland.

This is what I can't understand - Ireland are adamant that NI's status does not change in any way, and thus will not agree to any deal that makes that happen... but, by adopting this approach, they are not making it more likely that NI's status doesn't change... far from it.. they are only making a No Deal outcome much more likely.

What they're saying is that they won't be responsible for the actions of the UK, and why should they be?

They will be responsible because they have refused to seriously consider any deal that would see NI leave the Customs Union.

 

[Woodybobs]

It kind of makes sense, but it is also a monumentally risky strategy... the idea that neither Ireland nor the EU have ever been open to Northern Ireland's status changing is understandable, but disturbing.

The trouble is that such an attitude is, I'm afraid to say, not tenable - and, worse still, that view has governed both Ireland and the EU's negotiating stance from the outset.... the result is that the UK never had a chance of a deal that didn't involve either losing Northern Ireland or never leaving the Customs Union as a whole. From a UK perspective, neither of these options are even remotely acceptable.

The Irish border situation is a uniquely difficult issue, but the fact remains that while NI is part of the UK, and the UK has a right to leave the EU (as enshrined in the Lisbon Treaty itself), then Ireland and the EU should accept that NI's status will change. Negotiating on the basis that it will not is not going to produce a positive outcome... and I think we can already see that, since it has now led us to the brink of a No Deal exit. Surely it would have been better for the EU to have negotiated on the basis of how to minimize the impact of NI's changing status, rather than to do what it has done and only consider outcomes where NI's does not change at all.

You may be right to say that a No Deal exit is not currently possible - but that can change. Denying the UK its right to leave the EU's legal orbit could (easily) result in a huge backlash that will cause a lot of trouble, and ultimately will probably yield a No Deal Brexit. What is most frustrating is knowing that the Irish and EU position will change if and when a UK Government with a substantial majority threatens to walk away with No Deal (as you allude to) - both Ireland, the EU and many in the UK are hoping that this never happens... the question is, where does it leave the EU and Ireland when/if it does happen?

It's not that risky yet. For the moment the UK can't leave without a deal and Ireland and the EU know it. I'm sure the EU would be quite happy for Ireland back down but they'll continue to back us while the risk is low. If no deal becomes a real option the EU might start offering us some perks to get us to change our position but hanging us out to dry will likely lead to real divisions within the EU. There'll be many countries thinking if the EU doesn't back Ireland now then how can they trust the EU will support them if they ever need it.

For now the bigger worry is what happens if there is a border in some form. Nobody expects a return to the violence of the past but it's almost inevitable that any infrastructure at the border will be targeted. In turn that infrastructure will have to be protected. Then it'll only take one mistake or poorly executed destruction of property for it to result in injury or loss of life. We could fall into a tense situation by accident.

The GFA is a legally binding agreement. It says that people and goods are free to cross the border without checks. How are the UK going to control immigration without having a hard border in Ireland? You say it's not acceptable to the UK to lose NI to the customs union. For some reason it appears the UK is prepared to accept breaking the law and force a border on this island. On the other hand Ireland is respecting the agreement that both countries signed up to.

Why should the EU acquiesce to the UK's demands when those demands are just as unacceptable to the EU as the EU's demands are to the UK? The Irish government's position is supported by all of the Irish political parties and by the vast majority of the population. There's far more support in the UK for the backstop than there is in Ireland for the government to change their position. It is up to the UK to find a solution that doesn't break the law that they helped create.

 

[Hun200kmh]

Writing from the perspective of another small EU country, what I can say is that if the EU doesn't back Ireland all the way, many of the 26 countries watching, especially the smaller ones will take note of it. And in any other future difficult moments the EU goodwill will be seriously compromised.

 

[Touring Mars]

It's not that risky yet. For the moment the UK can't leave without a deal and Ireland and the EU know it. I'm sure the EU would be quite happy for Ireland back down but they'll continue to back us while the risk is low. If no deal becomes a real option the EU might start offering us some perks to get us to change our position but hanging us out to dry will likely lead to real divisions within the EU. There'll be many countries thinking if the EU doesn't back Ireland now then how can they trust the EU will support them if they ever need it.

No deal has always been the legal default... the only thing stopping it is a majority of UK MPs who want to block it... but, critically, there is no majority on what to replace it with. No deal is far more likely than you might think.

The GFA is a legally binding agreement. It says that people and goods are free to cross the border without checks.

The GFA categorically does not say that. It is not acceptable that the EU expects a sovereign state to break itself up just to satisfy the EU's own laws. The GFA compels the UK and Ireland to do everything they can to maintain the peace in Ireland, but it does not rule out customs checks... it doesn't even rule out a hard border, but both Ireland and the UK have committed to no hard border nevertheless.

Why should the EU acquiesce to the UK's demands when those demands are just as unacceptable to the EU as the EU's demands are to the UK?

Because the UK has a legal right to leave (enshrined, ironically, in EU law itself) and the EU does not have any legal (or other) right to keep any part of a non-member state under its governance.

The Irish government's position is supported by all of the Irish political parties and by the vast majority of the population. There's far more support in the UK for the backstop than there is in Ireland for the government to change their position. It is up to the UK to find a solution that doesn't break the law that they helped create.

As stated above, there is nothing illegal about leaving the EU without a deal... on the contrary, it is an outcome provided for by the Lisbon Treaty. If you mean that leaving the EU would mean the UK breaking the Good Friday Agreement, that is not a given either. One could argue that by refusing to negotiate on customs checks, Ireland are breaking the GFA.

Writing from the perspective of another small EU country, what I can say is that if the EU doesn't back Ireland all the way, many of the 26 countries watching, especially the smaller ones will take note of it. And in any other future difficult moments the EU goodwill will be seriously compromised.

The EU have to back Ireland all the way and they are... but the point is that Ireland needs to shift their position because, at present, they are expecting nothing to change in NI (which is not a part of their country) after the UK leaves the EU when, quite obviously, things will have to change. If Ireland shifts, the EU shifts... if the EU shifts, the UK will shift, and hopefully there will eventually be a meeting point. But without Ireland changing its position, a deal seems very unlikely.

The trouble will come when it all backfires and the UK leaves without a deal... then we will see the flipside of this argument - if you want to stay a member of the club, you will do what you are told... and that will mean EU-mandated customs checks at the very least (... or suspending Ireland from the Single Market..). The UK have already committed to no hard border, and Johnson's proposals to replace the backstop would create a new legally-binding international treaty that would enshrine this into international law... and yet Ireland (and thus the EU) are opposing it?!

What will other EU countries think when the EU are forced to deal with Ireland after a No Deal Brexit and force them to carry out customs checks against their will - or, indeed, be forced to kick them out of the Single Market?

-

edit: Another reason why the UK Government have good reason to be frustrated at this farce of a process is that both Ireland and the EU seem quite happy to consider any and all possibilities, such as customs checks away from the border, when it suits them... and yet, when the UK suggests the exact same thing it is suddenly out of the question.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Writing from the perspective of another small EU country, what I can say is that if the EU doesn't back Ireland all the way, many of the 26 countries watching, especially the smaller ones will take note of it. And in any other future difficult moments the EU goodwill will be seriously compromised.

How would Portugal be left in terms of border control with the EU if Spain were to leave the EU?

What will other EU countries think when the EU are forced to deal with Ireland after a No Deal Brexit and force them to carry out customs checks against their will

Ireland can vote to Leave the EU if they are not happy with the terms of staying in it, as can all the other nations.

It would be interesting to see the reaction if the Southern States in Europe started to demand a reduction in border controls.

 

[Hun200kmh]

How would Portugal be left in terms of border control with the EU if Spain were to leave the EU?

We would have a Hard border from North to South, it would be disrupting for trade and we would need to make serious investments in our ports. After a while we wouldn't be much worse.

You have to realize we lived some 800 years of our 900 year-old history with the entirety of our land borders pretty much closed (or at war ) and our ports doing all the international trade, so it would soon be business as usual.

In fact, we would be (again) an island in all but geographical terms.

Nothing to do with the Irish situation. A bit closer to it would be a Scottish situation

 

[Woodybobs]

No deal is far more likely than you might think.

I agree no deal could happen but it's unlikely to happen by surprise. As it stands now the UK are unlikely to leave with no deal without at least one more extension. We still have 25 days or so to go in this extension period so a lot could happen, but the EU don't have to concede anything yet. If the UK get close to leaving without a deal it wouldn't surprise me at all if Ireland and the EU pull back from their positions regarding the border. Until then they'll keep pushing to get what they want.

The GFA categorically does not say that.

You're quite correct, my mistake. It's open to interpretation but the construction of border infrastructure and policing the border could be interpreted as a violation of the terms of the GFA. That seems to be the view of Ireland and the EU. A border in Ireland brings risks and Ireland will do all it can to prevent one. I don't think they'll change their minds unless they think no deal is imminent. At that point they'll have a decision to make.

Because the UK has a legal right to leave (enshrined, ironically, in EU law itself) and the EU does not have any legal (or other) right to keep any part of a non-member state under its governance.

The complication is NI. It's the stumbling block to a deal. There is nothing preventing the UK from legally leaving tomorrow if they wish to.

If Ireland shifts, the EU shifts... if the EU shifts, the UK will shift, and hopefully there will eventually be a meeting point. But without Ireland changing its position, a deal seems very unlikely.

The EU are going to wait and see. Depending on the outcome of the election a deal may be possible. I understand the UK parliament's decision to prevent leaving with no deal but it has really taken away any bargaining power that was available to them.

The UK have already committed to no hard border, and Johnson's proposals to replace the backstop would create a new legally-binding international treaty that would enshrine this into international law... and yet Ireland (and thus the EU) are opposing it?!

The proposals are not acceptable to Ireland and the EU. The EU don't see Boris's plan to not have a border checks as workable. If that's the case then the proposal should be rejected. Both sides have their red lines and if they're not met or moved then a deal won't be reached. As it stand the EU haven't been put in a position that forces them to move their red lines. Until they are the have no need to change their position.

What will other EU countries think when the EU are forced to deal with Ireland after a No Deal Brexit and force them to carry out customs checks against their will - or, indeed, be forced to kick them out of the Single Market?

Ireland won't be forced to do anything against their will. They will either agree to carry out customs checks, or they won't and they'll have to deal with the fallout. I suspect, in a no deal scenario, they will do the former.

Ireland won't budge on the backstop unless no deal is imminent and even then they might not. As long as there's still a chance that the UK could come closer to the EU position it makes no sense for Ireland to back down.

 

[Touring Mars]

This is what is so utterly frustrating about the whole thing... as you correctly surmise, Ireland will (and have already said they would) implement customs checks if they have to, and yet the reason they cite for not agreeing to the UK’s proposals is that they will not implement any customs checks... that’s about as transparent a double standard as it gets. The whole ‘let’s wait and see what happens’ approach is as unprincipled as it is ultimately pointless.

Unfortunately you are dead right that, by blocking ‘No Deal’, the UK Parliament has shot itself in the foot and made reaching a deal practically impossible, exactly because the other side are not prepared to make a deal until they believe they have no other choice.

The UK will never come ‘closer’ to the EU position because, frankly, the EU position is permanent colony status for the UK. The UK voted to leave the EU - it did not vote to make the EU supremely more powerful than it already is - this is a fundamental misunderstanding of what Brexit is about, and it’s quite alarming to think that the EU really do believe that Brexit is nothing more than an opportunity to reduce the UK to colony status.

 

[Woodybobs]

This is what is so utterly frustrating about the whole thing... as you correctly surmise, Ireland will (and have already said they would) implement customs checks if they have to

The border issue is important over here and I think the government has to be seen as doing their utmost to prevent border infrastructure. If we get to the 11th hour and the UK are going to leave with no deal, the Irish public might accept that the government did what they could but if it's going to be a border with a deal, or a border with no deal, then we went the former. However, there is such strong support for the government's current position, who knows what the voters' reaction to a u turn would be. Barring a few opinion pieces in the papers there's been little to no debate on whether the government should give up on their commitment to preventing a border. If they back down Sinn Féin (already popular with nationalists and increasingly popular with the left) will try to stir up public opposition. Fianna Fáil are currently supporting a minority government and there's a real possibility they could remove their support.

the reason they cite for not agreeing to the UK’s proposals is that they will not implement any customs checks..

Ireland and the EU don't think Boris's proposal is workable. If it's not going to work why would they agree to it?

that’s about as transparent a double standard as it gets. The whole ‘let’s wait and see what happens’ approach is as unprincipled as it is ultimately pointless.

It's not a double standard. It's recognising one of the possible outcomes while working to try achieve another.

The wait and see approach is the best option at the moment. There's nothing to lose by waiting to see what happens in the UK. If the UK get close to crashing out then tactics might have to change. If we end up removing the backstop from the withdrawal agreement it's better to wait and make sure all other options have been exhausted. There is no rush for us at the moment. I'm sure it's annoying to the British but that's not really our concern.

The UK will never come ‘closer’ to the EU

Maybe not but the EU will wait to see the results of an election. The worst that can happen, from the EU's point of view, is that it's a major win for the leave parties. If that happens we'll see if the EU are prepared to concede ground to get a deal done.

EU position is permanent colony status for the UK

I don't think that's completely true. If the situation in Ireland wasn't complicated by history and politics then a deal would be done and the UK would be out. That being said the UK remaining part of the SM and CU would be a dream outcome for the EU.

 

[TenEightyOne]

frankly, the EU position is permanent colony status for the UK

Apart from how delicious the irony would be if that was true... it isn't. The EU is a group of countries of which we are (currently) four. It isn't some autonomous third-party being/state. We all share our citizenship and our differences. If anything the historic colonisations of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales by a London-based privy council and monarch are cemented by leaving that free state.

 

[baldgye]

The UK voted to leave the EU - it did not vote to make the EU supremely more powerful than it already is - this is a fundamental misunderstanding of what Brexit is about, and it’s quite alarming to think that the EU really do believe that Brexit is nothing more than an opportunity to reduce the UK to colony status.

I don't know why you keep beating this drum. We voted to leave the EU, fine and we can, only before we do, we have to sort out our own boarders. It's insane to simply go on about how unfair the EU is being when we're essentially asking them to not only give us a great deal, but then also sort out OUR border issues.

WE worked to make the Good Friday Agreement what it is, we did so because we where happy with it as it suited us and everyone else. It no-longer suits us ans so WE must change it or work to change it. But guess what, we didn't and we didn't because we knew we couldn't, at least not peacefully. So we rope in the EU and blame them for it. Insane. The RI/NI issue is OUR issue, how the flippin'heck are we supposed to be able to negotiate with the entire world when we can't even resolve our one and only land border problem?!


So, what do the EU do? They're a political entity (something most voters seemed to have forgotten) and so they're acting in their own best interests. So, to come around, Brexit is actually about making us an EU colony, because Brexit is about making the UK and the British people poorer and weaker.

 

[Dotini]

Brexit is about making the UK and the British people poorer and weaker.

Hasn't the UK has been systematically made poorer and weaker for well over 100 years, devolving from Empire to an unsustainable island which imports everything and sells only dubious financial services? Your brave new world appears dystopic. How could you do any worse than you have been?

 

[baldgye]

Hasn't the UK has been systematically made poorer and weaker for well over 100 years, devolving from Empire to an unsustainable island which imports everything and sells only dubious financial services?

No

 

[Touring Mars]

I don't know why you keep beating this drum. We voted to leave the EU, fine and we can, only before we do, we have to sort out our own boarders. It's insane to simply go on about how unfair the EU is being when we're essentially asking them to not only give us a great deal, but then also sort out OUR border issues.

Because, as I have said numerous times already, the Article 50 process made that impossible.

Can you please explain to me how the border issue could be resolved without the agreement of the EU or Ireland?

You are saying that it could/should have been done prior to... well, prior to what? Prior to the referendum? Prior to the Article 50 process being triggered? Prior to the exit date?

The UK can say whatever it wants about the Irish border - the fact remains that the UK cannot and has not sought to 'resolve' the situation on its own... its not possible for a start.

That being the case, the future of the Irish border became contingent upon the EU being able to take into account the fact that the UK is exercising its democratic and legal right to leave the EU, lock, stock and barrel - but, against the wishes of the UK Government, the EU flat-out refused to open any form of negotiation prior to Article 50 being triggered. That is the problem.

I get what you are saying, and I agree 100% that it would have been ideal if an agreement was reached prior to Article 50 being triggered, but that wasn't allowed or even possible for the reasons I've stated several times already. Indeed, what good would it have done to have a 'plan' in place only for it to be rejected anyway? The fact is that no UK proposal or plan that entails NI coming out of the EU is acceptable to the EU... and that's a problem because there is no UK plan that involves leaving NI under EU control - which, to be fair, the UK has said since Day 1.

WE worked to make the Good Friday Agreement what it is, we did so because we where happy with it as it suited us and everyone else. It no-longer suits us ans so WE must change it or work to change it. But guess what, we didn't and we didn't because we knew we couldn't, at least not peacefully. So we rope in the EU and blame them for it. Insane. The RI/NI issue is OUR issue, how the flippin'heck are we supposed to be able to negotiate with the entire world when we can't even resolve our one and only land border problem?!

Again, you are being very one-sided in your refusal to realise the EU's role in this debacle. The GFA is an Ireland-UK issue, but the issue with customs checks etc. is an EU-UK problem - and one problem cannot be addressed without reference to the other. We have not 'roped in the EU' and blamed them - the customs issue is an EU issue for which the UK has proposed solutions but they have been rejected out of hand. Only today has Angela Merkel herself confirmed what has been fairly obvious from the start - which is that the EU will not allow the UK to exercise its right to leave unless we leave Northern Ireland under EU jurisdiction permanently. The GFA cuts two ways - its not just about Ireland, but also about the UK as well... and the EU's inability to respect the UK's interests are as much an affront to the GFA as anything else.

So, what do the EU do?

Start negotiating - fast.

 

[Hun200kmh]

I can't understand you on this @Touring Mars. Let's suppose Scotland votes to leave the UK (I'm not going to argue if they have the right to leave, or to hold a vote, or whatever, but let's say all these hurdles have been overcome, Scotland held the vote and the decision was to leave the UK and the UK has to repect it)

Who is responsible for coming up with a customs and borders solution for the inevitable problems that such decision poses? The UK?

 

[baldgye]

Because, as I have said numerous times already, the Article 50 process made that impossible.

Can you please explain to me how the border issue could be resolved without the agreement of the EU or Ireland?

You are saying that it could/should have been done prior to... well, prior to what? Prior to the referendum? Prior to the Article 50 process being triggered? Prior to the exit date?

The UK can say whatever it wants about the Irish border - the fact remains that the UK cannot and has not sought to 'resolve' the situation on its own... its not possible for a start.

That being the case, the future of the Irish border became contingent upon the EU being able to take into account the fact that the UK is exercising its democratic and legal right to leave the EU, lock, stock and barrel - but, against the wishes of the UK Government, the EU flat-out refused to open any form of negotiation prior to Article 50 being triggered. That is the problem.

I get what you are saying, and I agree 100% that it would have been ideal if an agreement was reached prior to Article 50 being triggered, but that wasn't allowed or even possible for the reasons I've stated several times already. Indeed, what good would it have done to have a 'plan' in place only for it to be rejected anyway? The fact is that no UK proposal or plan that entails NI coming out of the EU is acceptable to the EU... and that's a problem because there is no UK plan that involves leaving NI under EU control - which, to be fair, the UK has said since Day 1.


Again, you are being very one-sided in your refusal to realise the EU's role in this debacle. The GFA is an Ireland-UK issue, but the issue with customs checks etc. is an EU-UK problem - and one problem cannot be addressed without reference to the other. We have not 'roped in the EU' and blamed them - the customs issue is an EU issue for which the UK has proposed solutions but they have been rejected out of hand. Only today has Angela Merkel herself confirmed what has been fairly obvious from the start - which is that the EU will not allow the UK to exercise its right to leave unless we leave Northern Ireland under EU jurisdiction permanently. The GFA cuts two ways - its not just about Ireland, but also about the UK as well... and the EU's inability to respect the UK's interests are as much an affront to the GFA as anything else.


Start negotiating - fast.

That last line, is at odds with reality. The boarder issue wasn’t resolved and we agree on why; because it can’t.

Yet for some reason you seem to be pushing the blame onto the EU, yes the EU are part of this, but this is our border. We needed to get our house in order before we did brexit, and we didn’t.


If we can’t do brexit, it’s not a failing of the EU or Art.50, its a failing of our own state.

 

[Dotini]

If we can’t do brexit, it’s not a failing of the EU or Art.50, its a failing of our own state.

Brilliant! And what is a state but its people?

 

[MatskiMonk]

Who is responsible for coming up with a customs and borders solution for the inevitable problems that such decision poses? The UK?

Just my two cents on this, cross border duties and taxes provide significant revenue for governments. It's usually in the interests of both sides to make sure it's policed effectively or else they loose out on Billions of £/€'s

 

[Woodybobs]

the EU will not allow the UK to exercise its right to leave unless we leave Northern Ireland under EU jurisdiction permanently.

The UK can leave. The EU won't begin trade negotiations with the UK unless NI remains in the CU, or the UK come up with an acceptable alternative.

 

[BobK]

Just my two cents on this, cross border duties and taxes provide significant revenue for governments. It's usually in the interests of both sides to make sure it's policed effectively or else they loose out on Billions of £/€'s

So since it makes more money for the government it's all good?

 

[TenEightyOne]

So since it makes more money for the government it's all good?

I'm not sure I read that sentiment between his lines, although obviously I can't answer for him. However, when asked in this thread why there have to be customs then I answered that money is the reason - and not just for government income, it protects business on either side of a customs border from (literally) illegal competition.

 

[Touring Mars]

I can't understand you on this @Touring Mars. Let's suppose Scotland votes to leave the UK (I'm not going to argue if they have the right to leave, or to hold a vote, or whatever, but let's say all these hurdles have been overcome, Scotland held the vote and the decision was to leave the UK and the UK has to repect it)

Who is responsible for coming up with a customs and borders solution for the inevitable problems that such decision poses? The UK?

The short answer is that Scotland and the UK would have to negotiate - the point being that it would not be up to either one to decide in advance what the outcome will be, but for both sides to work out how to make it work. The SNP have already said there would be 'no hard border' between Scotland and England in the event of Scottish independence, but have not yet pointed out how that is possible if an independent Scotland were to rejoin the EU...

Scotland could find itself in the same situation as Ireland on insisting on no hard border but being compelled to effect one on account of our EU membership. Ironically, the SNP are watching the current Brexit debacle with great interest because if Johnson gets his way and 'alternative arrangements' are agreed to in order to avoid a hard border in Ireland, then he will have inadvertently made the case of no hard border on the UK mainland after Scottish independence too.

Yet for some reason you seem to be pushing the blame onto the EU, yes the EU are part of this, but this is our border. We needed to get our house in order before we did brexit, and we didn’t.

As I said above, I agree with the sentiment/idea of what you are saying, but it is not as simple as merely stating the way you wish things were or what you think they ought to be... you need to explain what you mean by 'getting our house in order first' and, more importantly, how to do that.

The Irish border situation has, until now, been exclusively a matter for the Irish and UK Governments to negotiate - but, as pertaining to Brexit, that is (clearly) no longer the case. Indeed, when it comes to negotiating customs arrangements post-Brexit, it is not a question of what Ireland may or may not want, but what EU rules/laws stipulate... in other words, Ireland and the UK could have come up with whatever plan they wanted, but under current EU rules, they are prohibited from coming up with their own bilateral arrangement on trade, customs etc..

Furthermore, as I keep saying, the EU would not enter formal negotiations on the subject until the Article 50 process was underway. With these facts in mind, it is hard to see how the future arrangements regarding the Irish border could have been resolved in advance. Once again, I'm not disagreeing with your opinion - far from it... but the fact remains that there is a big difference between merely stating what would have been ideal and what was actually possible.

The UK can leave. The EU won't begin trade negotiations with the UK unless NI remains in the CU, or the UK come up with an acceptable alternative.

And the problem is, the only alternatives that the EU are willing to consider are a) the entire UK stays in the CU or b) the UK reverses its decision to leave the EU.

 

[Woodybobs]

it is not a question of what Ireland may or may not want, but what EU rules/laws stipulate.

It's a bit of both. Ireland wants to make sure that the GFA is respected, but as an EU member, must respect the rules.

"If we went up on a no-deal scenario, it may be the case that we have to live no deal for a period of time, and Ireland will do what is necessary to protect the single market, to ensure our place in the single market ... But having to do that for a period of time while we negotiate a deal, or while we pursue other solutions, is very different to an Irish government actually signing up in an international treaty to putting in place checks between north and south, and that’s something that we can’t countenance." (Leo Varadkar, 4th Oct.)

Maintaining peace in Ireland is the priority for the government. Ireland's history is one of failed rebellions followed by longer periods of relative peace. It seems unthinkable that we could see a return to violence after 20 years but we had over 40 years of peace between the war of independence/civil war and the beginning of the troubles. History says we shouldn't be complacent.

I don't think British people fully realise that many Irish people still believe that the UK is illegally occupying part of Ireland. The vast majority are happy to wait until a referendum can be won on both sides of the border, but it's likely that it would be passed with a huge majority in the Republic. I'm sure it won't surprise anyone to know that it's young men that are the most vocal in their opposition to the UK governing part of the Island and that this demographic is where paramilitary groups tend to recruit from. According to a news report I saw earlier this year there are a few hundred members of paramilitary groups in Ireland, mostly from nationalist areas in the North. Heightened tensions could lead to an increase.

Effectively this leaves Ireland in a situation where they will not willingly sign up to a situation that places the GFA at risk. DUP aside there is support in NI for it to remain part of the CU. The UK can make it happen and, depending on the results of an election, it may well happen yet.

And the problem is, the only alternatives that the EU are willing to consider are a) the entire UK stays in the CU or b) the UK reverses its decision to leave the EU.

Yes (unless the UK come up with something else) but those are the terms for beginning trade negotiations. Nobody is preventing the UK from excercising it's right to leave the EU.

 

[baldgye]

As I said above, I agree with the sentiment/idea of what you are saying, but it is not as simple as merely stating the way you wish things were or what you think they ought to be... you need to explain what you mean by 'getting our house in order first' and, more importantly, how to do that.

I didn't vote for this and I don't want any of this, why is it on me to come up to solutions to a problem I never wanted?

Furthermore, as I keep saying, the EU would not enter formal negotiations on the subject until the Article 50 process was underway. With these facts in mind, it is hard to see how the future arrangements regarding the Irish border could have been resolved in advance. Once again, I'm not disagreeing with your opinion - far from it... but the fact remains that there is a big difference between merely stating what would have been ideal and what was actually possible.

I don't agree with this, how we handle the boarder with IR/NI is our respective businesses the EU just need it to be peaceful. Yes as an EU member they would be involved but there is no reason why a solution couldn't be decided. I'm not one of the people who worked out the Good Friday Agreement and my understanding is it took years of hard work, the idea something can now be rushed in, is about as intelligent as suggesting the UK will be better off without the EU.
Yes, creating a hard border of any kind that doesn't result in war would take years, but, again this is our problem that we created.

So to come back to the below statement, in my opinion, you are wrong.

The UK voted to leave the EU - it did not vote to make the EU supremely more powerful than it already is...

We did vote to make the EU more powerful, the EU is a political entity that fights and campaigns for its own interests (which includes ensuring peace and wealth). It's exactly why leaving will be so catastrophically bad for the UK.

 

[Touring Mars]

"Ireland will do what is necessary to protect the single market, to ensure our place in the single market ... But having to do that for a period of time while we negotiate a deal, or while we pursue other solutions, is very different to an Irish government actually signing up in an international treaty to putting in place checks between north and south, and that’s something that we can’t countenance." (Leo Varadkar, 4th Oct.)

..which sounds very much like "we'll put in customs checks if the EU tell us to, but we won't agree to them if the UK asks us to..."

Unfortunately, the Irish position is predicated on a falsehood - that Brexit will not change the status of Northern Ireland in any way. It will. The UK Government have made it clear that it will respect the Good Friday Agreement - it insists there will be no hard border in Ireland, and the people of NI will have the opportunity to vote on whether they wish to remain inside the CU at various timepoints in the future (knowing that a vote to remain inside the CU would entail leaving the UK)... but Ireland (and the EU's) position is almost like they are assuming NI has already agreed to leave the UK, when it has not.

Leaving the EU will have big implications for NI, but so would leaving the UK. The assumption that NI will leave the UK rather than leave the EU/CU is one that is not fair to make at this juncture... the fact is that NI is a part of the UK and the UK is leaving the CU, thus NI is also (for the time being at least) also leaving the CU.

The joke is, that if Ireland could bring itself to countenance a deal, the likelihood is that NI may never leave the CU on account of remaining inside for a defined transition period, remaining inside during any delay caused by trade deal talks over-running, and then having a vote to decide whether it wants to stay in the CU or the UK. Ironically, a No Deal Brexit - which could be just days away - would guarantee that NI leaves the CU immediately - and the EU will impose customs checks on Ireland indefinitely, whether Ireland wants them or not.

I didn't vote for this and I don't want any of this, why is it on me to come up to solutions to a problem I never wanted?

I think you are misunderstanding my post - you keep saying that the UK should have resolved the Irish border situation 'first' but are ignoring the fact that this couldn't be done on account of the fact that Ireland's trading and customs arrangements are governed by the EU, and the EU does not allow individual member states to conduct bilateral negotiations with any other country on their behalf.

When I said 'You need to explain...' I am being somewhat rhetorical, as I've just explained the reasons why you will not be able to explain it - because it couldn't be done. What I really mean is, if I'm wrong about the UK and Ireland not being allowed to come up with their own solution (to the Irish border situation) prior to the EU-UK Brexit negotiations, then I'd like someone/anyone to explain to me why/how I'm wrong, and not just to merely state that I am wrong.

 

[baldgye]

I think you are misunderstanding my post - you keep saying that the UK should have resolved the Irish border situation 'first' but are ignoring the fact that this couldn't be done on account of the fact that Ireland's trading and customs arrangements are governed by the EU, and the EU does not allow individual member states to conduct bilateral negotiations with any other country on their behalf.

When I said 'You need to explain...' I am being somewhat rhetorical, as I've just explained the reasons why you will not be able to explain it - because it couldn't be done. What I really mean is, if I'm wrong about the UK and Ireland not being allowed to come up with their own solution (to the Irish border situation) prior to the EU-UK Brexit negotiations, then I'd like someone/anyone to explain to me why/how I'm wrong, and not just to merely state that I am wrong.

Both the UK and RI are members of the EU, the Good Friday Agreement was conducted by ours and the RI's governments, so why couldn't further negotiations?

 

[Touring Mars]

Both the UK and RI are members of the EU, the Good Friday Agreement was conducted by ours and the RI's governments, so why couldn't further negotiations?

Because the Article 50 process is a negotiation between the EU and the UK, not Ireland and the UK.

Ireland's international trade policy is governed by the EU, and thus Ireland is prohibited from making a bilateral deal on trade or customs with anyone, and that includes the UK. This is also the reason why the UK is currently prohibited from signing any trade deals with non-EU countries until after we have left.

 

[MatskiMonk]

So since it makes more money for the government it's all good?

That's not really the question I was answering, but I wouldn't automatically say it was bad. In the UK's scenario, given that people are crying out for more funding for things like welfare, education and the NHS, it makes sense that the government would need to maximise their tax and duty revenue, and also would want to somewhat mitigate the impact of money leaving the country.

 

[baldgye]

Because the Article 50 process is a negotiation between the EU and the UK, not Ireland and the UK.

We needed to get our house in order before we did brexit, and we didn’t.

So, just because we didn't, doesn't suddenly put the blame of this problem onto the EU.

 

[Famine]

So, just because we didn't, doesn't suddenly put the blame of this problem onto the EU.

How would this have been solved before Brexit? How could the governments of the UK and the Republic of Ireland, and the Northern Ireland assembly have solved the potential issue of United Kindgom having a land customs frontier with the European Union, and Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland trading on a different basis, before the A50 declaration?


Incidentally, there has been a temporary (albeit with no fixed end date) border between the two Irelands on two occasions since the GFA.