Brexit - The UK leaves the EU
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...nson-eu-barnier-stephen-barclay-a9113451.html
Isn’t it the deal @Touring Mars was talking about?
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- TenEightyOne
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I was thinking of the discussions of several months ago - I wasn't aware of the matters in that link. With that said I was under the impression that the "new" deal offered an in-Eire alternative to a UK-wide backstop, but on reading that article I'm not clear about what the UK's offering at all
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In a nutshell, the EU are not prepared to consider any form of Brexit that does not keep Northern Ireland in the EU permanently... it's as simple as that really.
Remember, this is not a 'Brexit deal' - it's merely the terms of our withdrawal - a 'deal' will take years after we have already left to negotiate, and given what we've seen over the last three years, it is not exactly certain (or even likely) that the UK and the EU will ever agree a 'deal' - this possibility is what makes agreeing to anything in advance very difficult and fraught with risk.
It is going to come down to who has the ultimate authority - is UK sovereignty legally more watertight than the integrity of the EU Single Market? That's a very tough one to answer, but I reckon it is.
The Lisbon Treaty enshrines in international law the right of member states to leave the EU. However, the Withdrawal Agreement is a new legally binding international treaty that effectively requires the UK to permanently waive our right to leave, or at the very least, to agree to waive NI's right to leave the EU.
What is troubling is that both Ireland and the EU are telling the UK that the backstop, should it ever come into force, would not be permanent... but at the same time they both seem convinced that no other arrangement is possible. So, not only would the backstop come into force, it could very likely turn out to be permanent. The EU and Ireland have repeatedly told the UK to tell them what the solution is to this seemingly intractable problem - but maybe they should be telling us how the backstop can be removed, since it is they who are expecting us to believe that it can be removed eventually. Of course, we already know what their answer is - the backstop can be removed when the UK agrees to a trade deal that keeps us in the Single Market...
Article 50 guarantees in international law that a member state may leave the EU for any reason and whenever its people choose to do so. The backstop essentially means waiving that right, and that sets an incredibly dangerous precedent.
Remember, this is not a 'Brexit deal' - it's merely the terms of our withdrawal - a 'deal' will take years after we have already left to negotiate, and given what we've seen over the last three years, it is not exactly certain (or even likely) that the UK and the EU will ever agree a 'deal' - this possibility is what makes agreeing to anything in advance very difficult and fraught with risk.
It is going to come down to who has the ultimate authority - is UK sovereignty legally more watertight than the integrity of the EU Single Market? That's a very tough one to answer, but I reckon it is.
The Lisbon Treaty enshrines in international law the right of member states to leave the EU. However, the Withdrawal Agreement is a new legally binding international treaty that effectively requires the UK to permanently waive our right to leave, or at the very least, to agree to waive NI's right to leave the EU.
What is troubling is that both Ireland and the EU are telling the UK that the backstop, should it ever come into force, would not be permanent... but at the same time they both seem convinced that no other arrangement is possible. So, not only would the backstop come into force, it could very likely turn out to be permanent. The EU and Ireland have repeatedly told the UK to tell them what the solution is to this seemingly intractable problem - but maybe they should be telling us how the backstop can be removed, since it is they who are expecting us to believe that it can be removed eventually. Of course, we already know what their answer is - the backstop can be removed when the UK agrees to a trade deal that keeps us in the Single Market...
Article 50 guarantees in international law that a member state may leave the EU for any reason and whenever its people choose to do so. The backstop essentially means waiving that right, and that sets an incredibly dangerous precedent.
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UKMikey
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Are there any other EU members with a similar arrangement to the backstop in place which might be affected by this precedent?
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- TenEightyOne
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And the GFA agrees a unity between Northern Ireland and RoI. It's also the case that Northern Ireland did not vote Leave. I think that it makes sense for the EU to be considerate to their citizens in Northern Ireland when the foreign government in Westminster clearly is not doing so.
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So...
The Labour Party have just voted against making a decision on their Brexit stance now, and will decide what their position on brexit is after they win a General Election.
The Labour Party have just voted against making a decision on their Brexit stance now, and will decide what their position on brexit is after they win a General Election.
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You couldn't make it up.So...
The Labour Party have just voted against making a decision on their Brexit stance now, and will decide what their position on brexit is after they win a General Election.
No sure what difference their stance on Brexit will make in 8 years time however...
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So...
The Labour Party have just voted against making a decision on their Brexit stance now, and will decide what their position on brexit is after they win a General Election.
Strangely they trusted the count on this to a show of hands, no card counting. And that's for (possibly) their biggest strategic decision in recent history. I don't know if Corbyn's buying into the hype that his inner circle are surrounding him with but it seems like he thinks Labour will win big in a GE. I can't see it myself, I reckon Ebola would get more votes right now. If you're in England and pro-Brexit it'll be a Conservative or Brexit party vote, if you're anti-Brexit it'll be Lib Dem.
If you're clinically insane it'll be Labour
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One could be forgiven for thinking that Brexit is not just about leaving the EU, but is also about destroying the existing political, economic and social model that the UK is currently based on. The two main political parties that have dominated UK politics for decades are practically ruined - a natural (and perhaps intentional) consequence of the information age being driven and exploited by those with radical agendas, and the smarts to make it work. What follows could be much more than Brexit supports ever bargained for...
Tired Tyres
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Despite wanting to see Johnson take it up the Parliamentary annals I was unsure about whether or not I wanted a court to have Parliamentary jurisdiction. Listening to evidence during the case and then Lady Hale's summary of the judgement I've become confident that it was the right decision.
Parliament can not be quashed to prevent Parliament from protecting itself against elements of Parliament. This is an astonishing day in British history, the events go right to the heart of our Parliamentary system. I think few things as momentous as this have happened since the Declaration of Right.
Parliament can not be quashed to prevent Parliament from protecting itself against elements of Parliament. This is an astonishing day in British history, the events go right to the heart of our Parliamentary system. I think few things as momentous as this have happened since the Declaration of Right.
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The BBC's European correspondent has just said what I thought was the case - that the UK need not request an extension to Article 50 until the very last moment.
If that is the case, then it could well mean that Johnson could put off requesting an extension before resigning at the last moment and thus causing a No Deal exit.
Frankly, though, if the EU will not change its stance (and it has not changed it one iota since the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed between May and the EU), then the chances of a deal by October 18th are extremely slim... and, indeed, the chances of there ever being a deal are also slim.
If that is the case, then it could well mean that Johnson could put off requesting an extension before resigning at the last moment and thus causing a No Deal exit.
Frankly, though, if the EU will not change its stance (and it has not changed it one iota since the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed between May and the EU), then the chances of a deal by October 18th are extremely slim... and, indeed, the chances of there ever being a deal are also slim.
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I know we're across two threads with this but I think this is more Brexit-weighted... Johnson is refusing to rule out proroguing Parliament as his next step. It seems clear that he's not going to resign, and so the cluster-**** continues.
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For those who haven't seen it yet, a "fan" explains his conversion to Brexiteerism to Fartage. So deadpan.
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Our politicians are an absolute disgrace. The most important time for our country in my lifetime and they are sat like little children giggling an guffawing as they hurl abuse across the chamber. I'd give anything to be in that chamber right now to give them as piece of my mind and show them up for the cretins they are.
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Asked if he could moderate his language in view of the threats being received daily by many MPs he replies to the Speaker that he's "never heard so much humbug".
He's not clever enough to see how clever the people pulling his strings are. That makes him different from Trump who has no strings and is simply being contained by a Secret Service perimeter.
EDIT: A better transcript than the one what i did
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In a word, yes.
Johnson is goading the opposition to oust him because he cannot do anything while his Government is in a deep minority.
The opposition parties all want him out and all crave a General Election, but ousting him now runs the risk of an 'accidental' No deal Brexit at the end of October, as that date is currently in law as the UK's exit date and the UK must request an extension to Article 50 prior to that date in order to avoid crashing out.
Johnson's strategy is clear - threaten the EU with a disastrous No Deal exit and they will be much more likely to offer the UK better terms for a Withdrawal Agreement, which currently are unacceptable to the UK. It is a strategy that is working to some extent, but the major flaw is obvious - he doesn't have enough support in Parliament to actually go through with No Deal, and thus the EU don't need to make any concessions.
It's an incredibly high stakes game though. Johnson's Government is crippled and now at the mercy of MPs opposed to his stance who are able to force through laws while he maintains a minority Government. This could include revoking Article 50 itself, but as yet there is not enough support for that - but nor is there enough support for any single option (hence how we got to this point in the first place).
Johnson's gamble is that if Parliament succeed in forcing the UK to remain inside the EU beyond October 31st via an extension of Article 50 (which has already been agreed in principle by the EU - it just needs to be formally requested by the UK Government), then there will be a General Election that he could stand to win... the polls look pretty ominous as support for Johnson is increasing and support for the main opposition leader is at a historic low.
If Johnson wins the next General Election, then his grand plan will probably work. If he doesn't, however, or if the next GE brings another hung Parliament, the UK could face being stuck in limbo for years, with possibly disastrous consequences. Eventually, the EU's patience will run out though, and the UK will face a stark choice between a No Deal Brexit or remaining inside the EU for another generation at least, unless a different government decides to go down the 'Soft Brext'/EEA route (but this is unlikely to command public support).
The real sticking point, IMHO, is that the EU have one red line that they are simply not prepared to compromise on - and that is that the UK, or at least part of it (Northern Ireland) must remain inside the Customs Union and Single Market permanently. While this works for them, it clearly doesn't work for the UK. The UK arguably has the moral and legal high ground here though, as member states have a right to leave the EU and the EU cannot exert its control over any part of a non-member state. The EU, however, can make life extremely hard for the UK after a No Deal Brexit, hence why it is a very high risk strategy - Johnson is gambling that the EU will eventually play ball because it is in their own interests to do so too, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
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