Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

Deal or No Deal?

  • Voted Leave - May's Deal

  • Voted Leave - No Deal

  • Voted Leave - Second Referendum

  • Did not vote/abstained - May's Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - No Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - Second Referendum

  • Voted Remain - May's Deal

  • Voted Remain - No Deal

  • Voted Remain - Second Referendum

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Sir John Major, former Conservative Prime Minister, has said that he believes that Boris Johnson could try to bypass the law compelling him to seek an Article 50 extension by using the Privy Council.



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...johnsons-government-could-bypass-legislation/

Ironically, Sir John is doing Boris Johnson a huge favour just by saying this (especially in a speech to the EU...) - he's basically warning them that the UK can still leave without a deal next month, despite the Benn Act, and thus is basically sending the EU the exact message Johnson wants them to get... do a deal now or face the consequences.
 
Touring Mars
Sir John Major, former Conservative Prime Minister, has said that he believes that Boris Johnson could try to bypass the law compelling him to seek an Article 50 extension by using the Privy Council.



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...johnsons-government-could-bypass-legislation/

Ironically, Sir John is doing Boris Johnson a huge favour just by saying this (especially in a speech to the EU...) - he's basically warning them that the UK can still leave without a deal next month, despite the Benn Act, and thus is basically sending the EU the exact message Johnson wants them to get... do a deal now or face the consequences.
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We'll never forget the televised spectacle of Boris going to the privy.
 
I did chuckle when Sajid Javid said that he and Boris Johnson have much in common, including how often they brush their hair...

Meanwhile, Johnson, is expected to reveal his detailed plan to replace the Irish backstop tomorrow... unfortunately, it would appear that the EU have already rubbished it, as part of Johnson's plan is that there would be an 'implementation period' where things stay as normal for a while, and any EU objections can be resolved during that period. Of course, the flaw in that plan is that the EU don't really want any other outcome other than NI staying in the EU permanently, but may be they will agree to this instead of going down the 'No Deal'/extension (and then No Deal) route.
 
Johnson confirms the promise he made a few weeks ago that there won't be customs checks on the NI land border. They'll be near the border instead. Problem solved.
 
Well... it’s starting to look like the theory of Ireland being kicked out of the Single Market (as I argued somewhat unsuccessfully a few weeks ago) might be a bit closer to the truth than most people seem prepared to accept...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49887114

Ireland have already accused the UK of acting in bad faith by suggesting that there will need to be customs checks either side of the Irish border when the UK leaves the EU... a point that the UK has tried but failed to avoid, but it now seems inevitable. BUT... Ireland (as Hard Brexiteers have argued all along) won’t do it. They are refusing to countenance any customs checks on their side of the border... and that can only have one consequence - customs checks between Ireland and mainland Europe.

I still think this is unlikely to happen, but a No Deal outcome will make it virtually impossible for Ireland to remain in the single market.

Ireland, it seems, may have been backed into an impossible corner here. If there is a deal, but Ireland refuse to play ball with the EU, then they get kicked out of the single market. If there is no deal, however, the same outcome will probably happen by default. The only outcomes that can avoid Ireland coming into direct conflict with the EU itself are No Brexit, Irish unification (which may never happen, but would take years even if it were voted for tomorrow) and backing down on customs checks and agreeing to a deal.
 
The glint in her eye. It's like she's announcing a new feature of the latest iPhone. Absolutely sickening.



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What she doesn't say is that we have always had this ability. One long, loud dog whistle.
 
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The Telegraph have published Boris Johnson's "final offer" Brexit proposals that are due to be sent to the EU tomorrow.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...d-prime-minister-rolls-sleeves-send-brussels/

it includes 'two borders for four years' - involving customs checks in Ireland and at Northern Irish ports, and effectively keeps NI inside the Single Market until 2025.

It is likely to face stiff opposition to say the least...
 
The key problem here seems to be that the EU and Ireland have never fully accepted that Brexit might actual happen... indeed, it is becoming clear that Ireland are hoping that Brexit isn't going to happen at all and are adopting a stance that is setting either the UK or Ireland up for a massive fall.

Let me be clear here - while I support the Irish view, I also reckon that the UK hold the ultimate trump card... and that is the right to leave the EU.

The 2017 Joint Report that was agreed by Theresa May and the EU all but enshrines the EU/Irish view and thus made it nigh on impossible for May to strike a Brexit deal that was going to be acceptable to the UK. Johnson is now effectively throwing out the 'agreements' reached in the Joint Report and shifting the onus back onto the EU to deal with an exit that is acceptable to the UK - but is not acceptable to the EU. The critical point is that the EU can do very little to infringe on the UK's right to leave, other than to make life very hard for us after we've left... which I'm absolutely certain they will do.

I don't necessarily see Ireland returning to conflict over this though, but unfortunately it is a possibility. If done well, Northern Ireland could stand to benefit - and Ireland, while maybe not benefiting in any way, could stand to lose a lot less from Brexit than they will under a No Deal outcome.
 
Just so you know, "No Deal" legislation is now starting to show up, at least in Portugal, although I suppose the same is happening everywhere within the 27.

Here's the latest (just an excerpt of the intro, and it's google translated)

Following the referendum held in the United Kingdom on 23 June 2016, the United Kingdom notified the European Council on 29 March 2017, under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, of its intention to withdraw from the European Union. In the absence of the entry into force of the exit agreement, negotiated between the European Commission and the United Kingdom Government and approved by the European Council on 25 November 2018, and if the period provided for in paragraph 3 of that Article is not extended again, the United Kingdom shall cease to be a Member State of the European Union at 11 pm on 31 October 2019.
Without ratification of the exit agreement, credit institutions, investment firms and the management companies of UK-based collective investment undertakings will no longer be able to benefit from the European regime on the date of the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union. which gives them freedom to provide services to investors in other Member States and is now covered by the regime applicable to entities based in third countries.
Thus, an exit from the United Kingdom from the European Union without agreement will result in an immediate termination of the services provided by entities based in that country to investors in Portugal, which in itself constitutes a factor of legal uncertainty as regards the validity and continuity. of the contracts concluded.
It is therefore necessary to adopt measures to ensure an adequate transition. Thus, this Decree-Law defines a transitional contingency regime whereby UK-based credit institutions, investment firms and management entities authorized to provide investment services and activities or services relating to collective investment undertakings in Portugal, may temporarily continue to do so in Portuguese territory. Such a contingency regime, which may be transiently applicable until 31 December 2020, is intended to enable credit institutions, investment firms and management companies based in the United Kingdom providing services to investors in Portugal to have the necessary period of time to cease. ongoing contracts and associated investments, or if they intend to continue to operate in Portugal, instruct the respective authorization process, without any disruption of the services provided to investors.
Credit institutions, investment firms and management entities which have made a communication under the current freedom to provide services may benefit from this scheme and within three months of the date of their departure without the UK's agreement. European Union, forward to the Securities and Exchange Commission the information set out in the annex to this Decree-Law, indicating whether the contingency period will be used to terminate ongoing contracts or to initiate the authorization procedure as a third country entity.
This decree-law also approves contingency measures in respect of contracts relating to the receipt of deposits or other repayable funds, credit operations, payment services and issuance of electronic money subject to the supervision of Banco de Portugal, taking into account the need also to ensure In this context, the continuity of the provision of the respective services to the bank customers. In addition, it is further clarified that insurance contracts covering risks situated in Portuguese territory or in which Portugal is the Member State of the commitment, whose insurer is an insurance undertaking based in the United Kingdom and which have been concluded under a authorization to pursue insurance business in Portugal before the date of departure from the United Kingdom from the European Union remain in force, although not extendable.
This Decree-Law also approves additional measures in the field of social security [… it continues …..]
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So, even without a deal Portugal will grant UK-based institutions up to 3 months to terminate operations or to apply for their continuation as a 3rd country operator. Not bad, uh?
 
Touring Mars
If done well, Northern Ireland could stand to benefit - and Ireland, while maybe not benefiting in any way, could stand to lose a lot less from Brexit than they will under a No Deal outcome.
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You're relying too much on the DUP and UDA affiliates not cutting their noses off to spite their faces.
 
MatskiMonk
Thanks Portugal, we always said you were cool.
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Maybe I was misunderstood. Portugal is a very small player in this whole fiasco, I have no doubt any loss of market here will barely be felt by any of the big UK-based financial institutions. But I do think this "transitional" period of 3 months after no-deal is probably what is being unilaterally regulated in all countries (in a concerted move) and probably similar legislation is being passed everywhere. And to that I say "not bad", makes the cliff edge more of a slippery slope but that at least won't hurt as much.

My guess is that most UK institutions will set up EU companies and transfer to them the entirety of their EU operations.
 
I think the EU are much, much closer to accepting this arrangement than most people think...

The Irish government's reaction will be pivotal, but the fact is that the Irish government's stance thus far has been based on the premise that 'brexit is OK so long as nothing changes'... and that ain't going to happen.

The Irish government's reasoning is a tad backwards... they seem to think that 'If there is No Deal, there'll be a hard border and we can't have that... so why would we ever sign up to a deal that creates a border?'... but, the devil is in the detail. The Irish government clearly consider any change to the status quo as 'a border' (hard or otherwise), and although they are technically correct, it is simply not possible for the UK and NI to leave the EU without the status quo being abandoned. The UK insist that there will be no 'hard border', but define a hard border in terms of the bad old days with customs check points, walls, fences, guards etc. - but that was never on the table.

But If Ireland can be persuaded that, while there is going to be a border of some description, there is no need to make it any harder than necessary - and indeed, in terms of the actual border itself, there need be little to no actual infrastructure whatsoever.

The best we can hope for is that Ireland reverse their logic and say 'If we're heading for a hard border via No Deal, then we would be better off signing up to the softest possible border in order to avoid that outcome'... the entire Brexit debacle now depends on them doing this...

If Ireland agree, then the EU agree. If the EU agree, then the UK is now in a position to get behind it.

Crucially, Boris Johnson has adopted the strategy that May should have adopted all along - remind the other side that it is in our power and our prerogative to walk away if necessary, but strive to make the outcome as good as possible for everyone at the same time. This paradoxical strategy - being nasty in order to be nice - is something that May didn't/couldn't do, and she got 🤬 on from a great height for her trouble. Johnson's strategy might just succeed, though even if the EU do agree to a new deal, it still requires the idiots in the Labour party to get behind it, and I won't hold my breath on that... as such, until Labour can get their heads out of their arses, a No Deal Brexit remains the likeliest outcome of all.
 
Touring Mars
Crucially, Boris Johnson has adopted the strategy that May should have adopted all along - remind the other side that it is in our power and our prerogative to walk away if necessary
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That sounds like the power and prerogative of a boxer to lay down.
Both sides have the power to end the discussion, there's not prerogative here. And if both side wants a deal, it is nonetheless clear that UK has way more to lose that countries of the EU.
 
Milouse
That sounds like the power and prerogative of a boxer to lay down.
Both sides have the power to end the discussion, there's not prerogative here. And if both side wants a deal, it is nonetheless clear that UK has way more to lose that countries of the EU.
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This is mostly true, but not entirely... Ireland stands to lose if no deal is reached, and not just economically. While the onus is and should be on the UK to ensure that Brexit doesn't adversely affect Ireland unnecessarily, there is only so much the UK can do without the agreement of the Irish government, thus the onus is also on Dublin to do what is best all round.

The UK does indeed have more to lose than the EU, but from an EU or Irish perspective, how much the UK stands to lose is (or should be) largely irrelevant... the question is how to mitigate losses for themselves.

One issue that Hard Brexiteers don't seem to care about much is the non-economic/social impact of non-frictionless trade in Ireland, and this is the major sticking point for the Irish government... nothing but 'business as usual' is acceptable, and that is perfectly understandable. But - the cost of maintaining 'business as usual' in Ireland is nothing less than the abandonment of Brexit itself, and that is very unlikely (and indeed, as I am suggesting, it is not (and cannot) be up to the EU or any single member state to decide whether Brexit happens or not. That is a principle enshrined in EU law itself, and in international law).

To be fair though, the UK has been absolutely committed to the avoidance of a hard border - it has never even mooted the idea, let alone suggested it... for the UK and Ireland it is non-negotiable. Unfortunately, the EU have (inadvertently or otherwise) used this as a stick to beat the UK with and the end result is a legal trap which effectively strips the UK of its legal right to leave the EU, which cannot be accepted.

Johnson's proposals here, while not perfect, at least respect all of the most important considerations for each side - no hard border, the UK's right to leave the EU, and the integrity of the Single Market.

A No Deal Brexit would only, at most, satisfy two of those requirements - and given Ireland's (and the UK's) total commitment to no hard border, that means the casualty would be the integrity of the Single Market, which, ultimately, would probably cost Ireland as much (if not considerably more) as the UK.
 
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baldgye
“Not even remotely acceptable”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...parliament-proposal-meps-reject-a9138346.html

...idk I’d like to think I was in the ball-park
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Guy Verhofstadt has opposed Brexit in principle since Day 1.

-

Meanwhile, Arlene Foster of the DUP has just called the Irish government's comments "outrageous" and says that their comments confirm the fact that the backstop "was indeed a trap" and that Ireland never had any intention of allowing the UK to ever leave the backstop. She has also said that the Irish government will be to blame if a hard border is required in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

I reckon these comments will go down like a lead balloon in Dublin.
 
@Touring Mars The Irish government's stance on the border issue is supported by the vast majority over here. The possibility of backing down is rarely debated. As long as the UK can't leave without a deal and the EU continues to back us, our position won't change. Potentially the results of of a UK general election could test our resolve, but the UK parliament's current inability to agree on anything leaves us in strong position. There won't be a real debate over here on whether we should concede ground on the border issue until we see the results of a UK general election.
 
Woodybobs
@Touring Mars The Irish government's stance on the border issue is supported by the vast majority over here. The possibility of backing down is rarely debated. As long as the UK can't leave without a deal and the EU continues to back us, our position won't change. Potentially the results of of a UK general election could test our resolve, but the UK parliament's current inability to agree on anything leaves us in strong position. There won't be a real debate over here on whether we should concede ground on the border issue until we see the results of a UK general election.
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It kind of makes sense, but it is also a monumentally risky strategy... the idea that neither Ireland nor the EU have ever been open to Northern Ireland's status changing is understandable, but disturbing.

The trouble is that such an attitude is, I'm afraid to say, not tenable - and, worse still, that view has governed both Ireland and the EU's negotiating stance from the outset.... the result is that the UK never had a chance of a deal that didn't involve either losing Northern Ireland or never leaving the Customs Union as a whole. From a UK perspective, neither of these options are even remotely acceptable.

The Irish border situation is a uniquely difficult issue, but the fact remains that while NI is part of the UK, and the UK has a right to leave the EU (as enshrined in the Lisbon Treaty itself), then Ireland and the EU should accept that NI's status will change. Negotiating on the basis that it will not is not going to produce a positive outcome... and I think we can already see that, since it has now led us to the brink of a No Deal exit. Surely it would have been better for the EU to have negotiated on the basis of how to minimize the impact of NI's changing status, rather than to do what it has done and only consider outcomes where NI's does not change at all.

You may be right to say that a No Deal exit is not currently possible - but that can change. Denying the UK its right to leave the EU's legal orbit could (easily) result in a huge backlash that will cause a lot of trouble, and ultimately will probably yield a No Deal Brexit. What is most frustrating is knowing that the Irish and EU position will change if and when a UK Government with a substantial majority threatens to walk away with No Deal (as you allude to) - both Ireland, the EU and many in the UK are hoping that this never happens... the question is, where does it leave the EU and Ireland when/if it does happen?
 
Touring Mars
Denying the UK its right to leave the EU's legal orbit could (easily) result in a huge backlash that will cause a lot of trouble, and ultimately will probably yield a No Deal Brexit.?
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The EU isn't denying the UK that right. What they're saying is that they won't be responsible for the actions of the UK, and why should they be? The UK strategy is effectively holding Ireland and the remainder of our EU colleagues hostage. It's embarrassing, ridiculous and goes against specific promises that we've made. The greatest problems will be in one of the countries that voted to Remain, I just don't see how that can be right.
 

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